Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

The best part of a no deal brexit for Ireland and the EU is that we can start work dealing with the outcome of brexit and adapt so we can all move on.

Sad thing is no one including Johnson, wants No Deal. But they sure as hell are making this out to be the macho decision of the century, even though they know the repercussions.

All BS imv.

Johnson is a cad and a bounder, and not fit to run a race, not to mind a country.

But here we are, watching and waiting for that idiot to make a decision. Awful now.

joe40

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Didn't see the papers (they always have a right wing guest to balance the centreist/lefty) but the (Ireland?) correspondent they had on after the 11 PM news was thoroughly cynical about the motives for this proposal. Indeed I've noticed the media starting to ask the questions with an edge that was totally lacking up till now. Everyone sees Boris Johnson is a spoofer at this stage. Even Kussenburg seems to be getting a bit more "ballsy" in tone.

Powell on Newsnight was brilliant. Totally nailed Johnson strategy of going for no deal, by tabling a totally unrealistic offer.
He also rubbishes the notion of a clean break since negotiations fo Britain as a third country will be more difficult than within article 50. The border issue will still need to be dealt with.

Spanish Eyes

prawnsambo wrote: »

Working fine for me, but here goes aain

Thank you very much. No idea why I couldn't see it first time around, but all OK now.

joe40

prawnsambo wrote: »

Cars all had 192 D registrations in the 16k range. That would seem pretty recent to me.

What is the money like working in customs. There might be jobs going

gooch2k9

Is there time for the opposition to act this week? They surely have to do something if what's being reported is the offering from the government.

Strazdas

liamtech wrote: »

If anyone can rewind to the sky news press briefing at 10:30 they will see what i mean - the 11:30 was toned down rather significantly but the earlier review was decidedly anti irish - effective argument, no matter what is offered dublin will say no

im sure someone else can confirm this, il see if my sat box will rewind

I watched it on Youtube. The woman on the right in red seems to be a Johnson fan and apparently thinks the Irish Govt will have no choice but to cave in : she seems to be completely misreading the situation and thinks the EU will put pressure on Ireland

Mr.Nice Guy

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Is there time for the opposition to act this week? They surely have to do something if what's being reported is the offering from the government.

I'd like to think the plans about the border would focus the minds of the opposition parties on the need to work together.

Even though the Benn Act requires an extension if no agreement is reached, it would not be a surprise if this administration tried some sly method to get around that somehow. The SNP's leader in parliament Ian Blackford is concerned about that:

https://twitter.com/IanBlackfordMP/status/1179148489684590593

The only way it seems likely to happen is if Corbyn steps aside for someone like Margaret Beckett to take over. I can understand Corbyn feeling he deserves a crack at it as official opposition leader, but it doesn't look like he has the numbers. He would earn a lot of goodwill if he was seen to put country before party, and step aside for a caretaker PM. Would love it to happen but it seems unlikely.

robindch

Seth Brundle wrote: »

[...] "getting Brexit done" [...]

A delicately-crafted piece of newspeak which would have made Orwell wince.

liamtech

Segment from Sky News tonight where talk turned decidedly in favor of having the EU Pressure Dublin to accept a deal

Excuse the camera work, but the audio is clean - link tested

https://vimeo.com/363685589

EDIT - its all nonsense of course but i just thought it was worth noting - the blame game has already begun en masse. the DUP and TUV have been spouting this nonsense for months but its gone mainstream now

Headshot

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The only way it seems likely to happen is if Corbyn steps aside for someone like Margaret Beckett to take over. I can understand Corbyn feeling he deserves a crack at it as official opposition leader, but it doesn't look like he has the numbers. He would earn a lot of goodwill if he was seen to put country before party, and step aside for a caretaker PM. Would love it to happen but it seems unlikely.

If Corbyn did this, my respect for him would soar. This would be a man who would consider country first and party 2nd which you don't often see with politicians these days. It would be really Prime Minister material in my eyes.

joe40

liamtech wrote: »

If anyone can rewind to the sky news press briefing at 10:30 they will see what i mean - the 11:30 was toned down rather significantly but the earlier review was decidedly anti irish - effective argument, no matter what is offered dublin will say no

im sure someone else can confirm this, il see if my sat box will rewind

I noticed the same thing. I think they actually saw some better analysis in the intervening hour. Even the sky reporter described the plan as a cynical move in the blame game, not a realistic offer.

liamtech

joe40 wrote: »

I noticed the same thing. I think they actually saw some better analysis in the intervening hour. Even the sky reporter described the plan as a cynical move in the blame game, not a realistic offer.

i managed to rewind it = to satisfy my own sanity if nothing else cause the 11:30 was toned down but anyway - the link is in my previous post for anyone that missed this

AND SORRY FOR THE CAMERA WORK

J Mysterio

ath262 wrote: »

Phil Hogan approved as EU trade commissioner by INTA

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179083869494169600

according to a report in German - with some homework for him

https://twitter.com/berndlange/status/1178990170613407745

"Phil #Hogan delivered # 2-3 in the #Hearing to the #Commercial Commissioner, no mistakes, but sometimes a bit vague and not very clear pledges. Now there will be a letter of approval tomorrow, which will include some homework"

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1179165484123602945

J Mysterio

joe40 wrote: »

Powell on Newsnight was brilliant. Totally nailed Johnson strategy of going for no deal, by tabling a totally unrealistic offer.
He also rubbishes the notion of a clean break since negotiations fo Britain as a third country will be more difficult than within article 50. The border issue will still need to be dealt with.

And that too is also already available

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179154814631989248

liamtech

J Mysterio wrote: »

And that too is also already available

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179154814631989248

reading that comment thread is telling - lots of people get it but there are a few who are fairly unsympathetic

reslfj

Injuryprone wrote: »

...
but how are they going to end freedom of movement of people if they have an open border in NI.

... the people part of the border was a non issue because of the CTA,... .

But what if someone comes from one of the other 25 EU countries comes to the Republic and crosses the border?

1. You can't travel to Ireland from Schengen or one of the non Schengen EU26 countries without a valid passport (or a valid EU national ID card).
It is as easy for a full EU26/EEA citizen to enter the CTA in London as it is in Dublin.

2. The word 'movement' in FoM has little to do with travelling, mi/hour or km/hour. In EU parlance about FoM for people it means moving permanent address or job (a student or being rich).

It's like if you say

• "I am moving from Leeds to London or to Liege" and/or
• "I got a new job in Plymouth or in Paris"

It's not the actual travel to these new cities, but the new centre of your life that is in the word 'movement' (in an EU FoM context)

I would not ask you, if you came by car or Easyjet, but rather did you find a new house or flat? or is you new job interesting and paying well?

As all EU/EEA citizens (plus from many other countries) can enter the UK for 90 days - now and even post a 'No Deal' Brexit - just by showing a valid passport at a CTA (UK / Irish) border crossing. Borders are inherently useless for controlling FoM from the EU26/EEA.

Border control can be used to return people without papers or people from countries where a UK entry visa is required.
Such people is already returned today (where the UK is still an EU member)

The only way to get some real control of migration (= permanent settled status and working for money) of citizens from EU26/EEA and other countries is registration and checks with landlords and employers.

Most EU26 countries has a requirement of citizens addresses and tax information being registered with the proper authorities.

The 'take back control of our borders' is little more than political propaganda towards people without much factual knowledge of borders and migration.

Lars

PS! Travelling across borders is allowed by the Schengen treaty, the CTA MoU or for non Schengen EU26 countries (e.g. BG, RO, CY) using a passports (or a National ID card).
PSS! The CTA, the GFA and UK/RoI agreements/laws in many ways replaces the EU FoM rules but just for UK/Irish citizens.

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Isn't Priti the woman who thought capital punishment was a good idea? Isn't she the Priti who had to resign from government two years ago because she hid 14 dodgy meetings with 'businessmen', a lobbyist and the Israeli government? Is this the Priti who suggested that Britain should starve Ireland into submission?

Isn't this the Priti Patel who's a first generation Indian immigrant like most who want to pull up the ladder. Filth isn't close to what you'd call her mindset.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is absolutely delusional.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1179027851867295745

Of course they want to deal with a smaller country directly so they can impose their will.

Kay Burley really has shown herself up to be such a gem in all of this. She constantly nails people on their bull****.

I was never a fan until Brexit hit town and she and sky have just been cracking.

Patser

Oh but this is vicious by Krishnan Guru-Murthy, right to Rees-Moggs face, as he has to stand there and take it. Not convinced its 100% professional to be fair, but just to watch JRM squirm is worth it.

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1179152086614851589

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

And that too is also already available

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179154814631989248

Like most Irish commentators because he has been at the coalface, he's just been on point.

"It'll be destroyed"

People in Aughnacloy or Jonesboro (generally) aren't concerned about dairy, they're concerned about walking from one part or their country to the other part of their country.

It fascinates me how the GAA national leagues will transpire come late January...

sdanseo

Was up in Newry today. The "Welcome to Northern Ireland" sign has been vandalised since I was last up there in the spring. Every 3rd car Irish Reg as usual.

I've never much pondered how frictionless the border is but it hit me as I was driving back across, all this could be so much more difficult in just a month. The troubles predate my being conscious of them but I've heard the horror stories. By all reports, there are more civilised sub-Saharan dictatorships.

Yeah, let's just sort these issues out ourselves with no EU help. That will make it all better. Sure we solved our differences with Tory governments before without external intervention, didn't we? ... :rolleyes:

BonnieSituation

sdanseo wrote: »

Was up in Newry today. The "Welcome to Northern Ireland" sign has been vandalised since I was last up there in the spring. Every 3rd car Irish Reg as usual.

I've never much pondered how frictionless the border is but it hit me as I was driving back across, all this could be so much more difficult in just a month. The troubles predate my being conscious of them but I've heard the horror stories. By all reports, there are more civilised sub-Saharan dictatorships.

Yeah, let's just sort these issues out ourselves with no EU help. That will make it all better. Sure we solved our differences with Tory governments before without external intervention, didn't we? ... :rolleyes:

My first experience of the border was in October 1994 as we went on a 3rd class school tour to Emhain Mhaca and Armagh Planetarium. We got boarded by the Army for a search and this was "frictionless" in our and our teachers' eyes given what it was like pre-August and the Provisionals' ceasefire.

The sheer lunacy of those that think that we're going to accept a return to that on November 1st just to "get Brexit done".

woohoo!!!

Just in case anyone was in any doubt they want no deal. They're terrified of the Brexit party and they're trying their utmost to get a veto on an extension. All short term blinkered save the tories thinking. We need to give them the equivalent of a pat on the head and ruffling their hair whilst whispering softly in their ear we're not blinking and neither are our 26 best buddies.

Enzokk

As we move on to another day that promises to bring more insanity to Brexit, I fully expect the EU to officially rule out Johnson's plans during his speech, here is a couple of tweets on the plan.

Firstly we have a reply to Brexit Party MEP about the plan,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1179147942566998017?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1179149354424307712?s=20

Interesting that his replies seem to mean that even if there is a FTA with no tariffs there will still be friction created as paperwork will still be needed to confirm rules of origin. The reply is made to the MEP suggesting that GATT 24 is the answer even if it has been debunked months ago.

Then on the plan from Boris, it seems like he did send someone to Dublin to explain the plan. Seems like it went well.

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1179275235096502272?s=20

"#BorisJohnson’s chief of staff sent to Dublin to brief Irish government on UK #Brexit proposals before announcement today. In perhaps understatement of year, Times reports “meeting did not go as well as expected”."

liamtech

Enzokk wrote: »

As we move on to another day that promises to bring more insanity to Brexit, I fully expect the EU to officially rule out Johnson's plans during his speech, here is a couple of tweets on the plan.

Firstly we have a reply to Brexit Party MEP about the plan,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1179147942566998017?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1179149354424307712?s=20

Interesting that his replies seem to mean that even if there is a FTA with no tariffs there will still be friction created as paperwork will still be needed to confirm rules of origin. The reply is made to the MEP suggesting that GATT 24 is the answer even if it has been debunked months ago.

Then on the plan from Boris, it seems like he did send someone to Dublin to explain the plan. Seems like it went well.

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1179275235096502272?s=20

"#BorisJohnson’s chief of staff sent to Dublin to brief Irish government on UK #Brexit proposals before announcement today. In perhaps understatement of year, Times reports “meeting did not go as well as expected”."

If they 'expected it to go well' then they really are living in a dream

I have to say hearing BoJo at the DUP conference on good morning ireland was shocking - cheering and shouts of no surrender - wonderful development in Anglo Irish relations

weemcd

liamtech wrote: »

If they 'expected it to go well' then they really are living in a dream

I have to say hearing BoJo at the DUP conference on good morning ireland was shocking - cheering and shouts of no surrender - wonderful development in Anglo Irish relations

It's like a time warp to the 70's. Really despicable from both parties. I don't like the road they're going down, it's complete and total zealotry.

DUP's short sightedness will be their ultimate downfall, but I fear there will also be a lot of pain suffered because of this. I think a chunk of UUP voters may be inclined to vote Alliance now their leader has stepped down, DUP should be losing votes hand over fist but that doesn't necessarily mean this will happen. I live in Belfast so this is all very close to home.

circadian

weemcd wrote: »

It's like a time warp to the 70's. Really despicable from both parties. I don't like the road they're going down, it's complete and total zealotry.

DUP's short sightedness will be their ultimate downfall, but I fear there will also be a lot of pain suffered because of this. I think a chunk of UUP voters may be inclined to vote Alliance now their leader has stepped down, DUP should be losing votes hand over fist but that doesn't necessarily mean this will happen. I live in Belfast so this is all very close to home.

If there's a hard exit the farming and small business votes will have to take a hit. I wonder how many Wrightbus redundancies will connect the dots on this one. I can't tell if the DUP just think they won't lose votes or don't see the precarious position they've put themselves in.

Once people's lives are affected they will lose votes, how badly remains to be seen. I suspect the working class will still vote DUP just because.

liamtech

weemcd wrote: »

It's like a time warp to the 70's. Really despicable from both parties. I don't like the road they're going down, it's complete and total zealotry.

DUP's short sightedness will be their ultimate downfall, but I fear there will also be a lot of pain suffered because of this. I think a chunk of UUP voters may be inclined to vote Alliance now their leader has stepped down, DUP should be losing votes hand over fist but that doesn't necessarily mean this will happen. I live in Belfast so this is all very close to home.

i really hope your correct, i really do. Perhaps Unionist businesses will see the DUP's position as untenable. and move toward the alliance.. or at least away from a hard right DUP/TUV position.. you mention the UUP, i didnt think they were quite as populist/extreme as the DUP? But i defer to you, and i would be interested in hearing what you think regards these various Unionist Blocks.

What i think, is the Unionist community need a strong coherent Unionist party that opposes all of this, to vote for.. they need an alternative.. how about the PUP?

What concerns me is the state of the UK Polls. It really does seem that the Conservatives are soaking up the Brexit Parties support so a right wing split, which i had hoped for (for no other reason than my being a leftie and supporting a second ref) is not gonna happen

More worrying is that Lab and the Lib Dems are at war with each other - neither seem to be impacting the Rights vote in any meaningful way. so the split is on the left, and given FPTP voting - it could be a bloodbath - the Tories could get an insane majority - which would be devastating

interested to see what people have to say

54and56

We (RoI) are deadly at referendums.

If Leo et al come under serious pressure to accept a DMZ type checks and controls solution away from each border and/or a time limit on the backstop and/or a Stormont lock so that the "undemocratic' backstop can be made palatable to the HoC wouldn't it be a great idea for Leo to "democratise" the RoI decision and put the proposed solution to a yes/no referendum here?

That would take the decision (and potential blame for being a blocker) away from our politicians and give it to the people who will have to directly live with the consequences.

Agree the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum here which would require a short (2 month?) extension to facilitate.

Good/Bad idea?

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

i really hope your correct, i really do. Perhaps Unionist businesses will see the DUP's position as untenable. and move toward the alliance.. or at least away from a hard right DUP/TUV position.. you mention the UUP, i didnt think they were quite as populist/extreme as the DUP? But i defer to you, and i would be interested in hearing what you think regards these various Unionist Blocks.

What i think, is the Unionist community need a strong coherent Unionist party that opposes all of this, to vote for.. they need an alternative.. how about the PUP?

What concerns me is the state of the UK Polls. It really does seem that the Conservatives are soaking up the Brexit Parties support so a right wing split, which i had hoped for (for no other reason than my being a leftie and supporting a second ref) is not gonna happen

More worrying is that Lab and the Lib Dems are at war with each other - neither seem to be impacting the Rights vote in any meaningful way. so the split is on the left, and given FPTP voting - it could be a bloodbath - the Tories could get an insane majority - which would be devastating

interested to see what people have to say

What is unforgivable is the sight of Tory's once again cheerfully and irresponsibly turning issues affecting this island into a Green V Orange ones.