Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is unforgivable is the sight of Tory's once again cheerfully and irresponsibly turning issues affecting this island into a Green V Orange ones.

That is exactly what they are doing - divide et impera

prawnsambo

54and56 wrote: »

We (RoI) are deadly at referendums.

If Leo et al come under serious pressure to accept a DMZ type checks and controls solution away from each border and/or a time limit on the backstop and/or a Stormont lock so that the "undemocratic' backstop can be made palatable to the HoC wouldn't it be a great idea for Leo to "democratise" the RoI decision and put the proposed solution to a yes/no referendum here?

That would take the decision (and potential blame for being a blocker) away from our politicians and give it to the people who will have to directly live with the consequences.

Agree the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum here which would require a short (2 month?) extension to facilitate.

Good/Bad idea?

We already had one. As did NI. You can see the respect that is getting right now.

AlmightyCushion

54and56 wrote: »

We (RoI) are deadly at referendums.

If Leo et al come under serious pressure to accept a DMZ type checks and controls solution away from each border and/or a time limit on the backstop and/or a Stormont lock so that the "undemocratic' backstop can be made palatable to the HoC wouldn't it be a great idea for Leo to "democratise" the RoI decision and put the proposed solution to a yes/no referendum here?

That would take the decision (and potential blame for being a blocker) away from our politicians and give it to the people who will have to directly live with the consequences.

Agree the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum here which would require a short (2 month?) extension to facilitate.

Good/Bad idea?

Terrible idea. We elect politicians to make these decisions. You can't guarantee how this vote would go. The Brexit vote was considered a foregone conclusion. They were never going to vote out... then they voted out. We can't take that risk with something as important as this. Plus, by putting it to a vote, it shows that the government at least condone it if not support it. We absolutely have to come down on this plan as not being acceptable. Putting it to a vote goes against that and moves the goalposts. The current goalpost is no border. By putting this to a vote, even if it gets voted down in a landslide loss, moves the goalpost to some variation of this plan.

Even if the people here vote it down, it would silence the pro Brexit crowd. They've shown they only care about democracy when it suits them and Brexit. Instead of the Irish government being unreasonable they'll just say the Irish people are being unreasonable.

Not to mention a referendum costs money to run and takes up the government's time. That time and money could be better spent.

We can't even entertain this idea. We need to shoot it down as the ridiculous nonsense it is.

woohoo!!!

liamtech wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is unforgivable is the sight of Tory's once again cheerfully and irresponsibly turning issues affecting this island into a Green V Orange ones.

That is exactly what they are doing - divide et impera

The UK did very well in the EU and within the global trend of globalisation. They've decided to go the opposite direction under the tories for a plethora of reasons already well discussed. They think going into reverse will solve their problems, it won't because it isn't the root cause. The rest of the world will just shrug their shoulders and carry on, the UK will just get left behind and become increasingly irrelevant.

A Dub in Glasgo

I would be very surprised if the EU did not see this scenario coming as it was telegraphed a while ago. Johnson had no interest in putting together credible alternative proposals and just wants to project the blame for his own decisions elsewhere

MrMusician18

54and56 wrote: »

We (RoI) are deadly at referendums.

If Leo et al come under serious pressure to accept a DMZ type checks and controls solution away from each border and/or a time limit on the backstop and/or a Stormont lock so that the "undemocratic' backstop can be made palatable to the HoC wouldn't it be a great idea for Leo to "democratise" the RoI decision and put the proposed solution to a yes/no referendum here?

That would take the decision (and potential blame for being a blocker) away from our politicians and give it to the people who will have to directly live with the consequences.

Agree the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum here which would require a short (2 month?) extension to facilitate.

Good/Bad idea?

It's a bad idea since the outcome of that referendum will not steer the talks.

It would effectively be the same as having a referendum on the tide coming in. The Irish Government cannot force the UK into a certain policy and if the UK decides that no deal is the best course of action, then no referendum will prevent the need for checks.

VinLieger

54and56 wrote: »

We (RoI) are deadly at referendums.

If Leo et al come under serious pressure to accept a DMZ type checks and controls solution away from each border and/or a time limit on the backstop and/or a Stormont lock so that the "undemocratic' backstop can be made palatable to the HoC wouldn't it be a great idea for Leo to "democratise" the RoI decision and put the proposed solution to a yes/no referendum here?

That would take the decision (and potential blame for being a blocker) away from our politicians and give it to the people who will have to directly live with the consequences.

Agree the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum here which would require a short (2 month?) extension to facilitate.

Good/Bad idea?

Jesus thats an horrific idea and just repeating the mistakes Cameron made but in an even worse way, instead of pitting representative democracy against direct democracy your instead pitting the direct democracy of two different countries, Ireland and the UK, against each other.



Do you want people calling for a war? Cus that's how you get people calling for a war.

liamtech

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Terrible idea. We elect politicians to make these decisions. You can't guarantee how this vote would go. The Brexit vote was considered a foregone conclusion. They were never going to vote out... then they voted out. We can't take that risk with something as important as this. Plus, by putting it to a vote, it shows that the government at least condone it if not support it. We absolutely have to come down on this plan as not being acceptable. Putting it to a vote goes against that and moves the goalposts. The current goalpost is no border. By putting this to a vote, even if it gets voted down in a landslide loss, moves the goalpost to some variation of this plan.

Even if the people here vote it down, it would silence the pro Brexit crowd. They've shown they only care about democracy when it suits them and Brexit. Instead of the Irish government being unreasonable they'll just say the Irish people are being unreasonable.

Not to mention a referendum costs money to run and takes up the government's time. That time and money could be better spent.

We can't even entertain this idea. We need to shoot it down as the ridiculous nonsense it is.

The only referendum that will sort this out is a second brexit vote - even if Brexit won, i expect that the NI vote would be a bigger majority for remain - obviously i would hope remain wins over all in that case

I also agree that we just need to shoot it down - its a sham

So far this morning the opinions are Green v Orange+Blue

Irish Gvt - against proposals 100%
DUP - very interested and blaming dublin if it doesnt work
Tories - 100% for this proposal
EU - seems to be as expected so far - this is a non-operational proposal

No surprises thus far

Havent seen a peep from the SNP, Labor, or the Lib Dems -

Flex

Having read the 'two sources familiar with the Withdrawal Agreement claim the EU will put pressure on the government of Ireland' stories yesterday, today the Independent is saying sources in the EU state the UK government proposal falls way short of the requirements

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/brexit/uk-plans-to-offer-eu-two-borders-for-four-years-in-bid-to-abolish-backstop/ar-AAI8Kes?ocid=ientp

Also states that the UK government had briefed numerous EU capitals about the plan, but excluded ourselves from that shortlist

Out of curiosity, I don't for a moment believe there is any merit to what was reported in the UK media yesterday (other EU governments would put pressure on our government to accept a watered down ineffective backstop so long as the remainder of the British offer was reliable or coherent), but out of curiosity does anyone here actually think the EU would have done such a thing?

Perhaps its naivety on my part, but I don't think there would have been any pressure at all applied and I believe our government sources, such as Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee, (along with Michel Barnier, President Macron, Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Bettel, and a countless list of others) when they state there isn't nor has there ever been any pressure applied to us to water down our position or submit to Johnson or any UK government. This is what the EU was created for, states pooling sovereignty and strength to support one another, whether in trade, economic matters, external states behaving aggressively, etc. and the solidarity from 26 other sovereign governments with Ireland has been remarkable.

farmchoice

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would be very surprised if the EU did not see this scenario coming as it was telegraphed a while ago. Johnson had no interest in putting together credible alternative proposals and just wants to project the blame for his own decisions elsewhere

the proposals are not far short of ridiculous, so we can assume it was not really a serious attempt at getting a deal, so a deal really isn't the plan.
that leaves no deal or extension. the benn act appears to take no deal off the table and by laying out this fantasy plan now on the face of it it gives the opposition even more time to make sure the benn act is implemented.
it looks to me like boris is happy enough that he can neutralize the brexit party in the election, the vast majority of their supporters are tories at heart and they will come back to Boris now that he has played the hard man. he will present the extension he gets as the opposition and the Eu ganging up on him and only by returning him with a majority can he win the day.
not that that will really solve anything because without a majority of about 100 he will be back to having the ERG breathing down his neck.

Christy42

Flex wrote: »

Having read the 'two sources familiar with the Withdrawal Agreement claim the EU will put pressure on the government of Ireland' stories yesterday, today the Independent is saying sources in the EU state the UK government proposal falls way short of the requirements

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/brexit/uk-plans-to-offer-eu-two-borders-for-four-years-in-bid-to-abolish-backstop/ar-AAI8Kes?ocid=ientp

Also states that the UK government had briefed numerous EU capitals about the plan, but excluded ourselves from that shortlist

Out of curiosity, I don't for a moment believe there is any merit to what was reported in the UK media yesterday (other EU governments would put pressure on our government to accept a watered down ineffective backstop so long as the remainder of the British offer was reliable or coherent), but out of curiosity does anyone here actually think the EU would have done such a thing?

Perhaps its naivety on my part, but I don't think there would have been any pressure at all applied and I believe our government sources, such as Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee, (along with Michel Barnier, President Macron, Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Bettel, and a countless list of others) when they state there isn't nor has there ever been any pressure applied to us to water down our position or submit to Johnson or any UK government. This is what the EU was created for, states pooling sovereignty and strength to support one another, whether in trade, economic matters, external states behaving aggressively, etc. and the solidarity from 26 other sovereign governments with Ireland has been remarkable.

It is random brexiteer hope at this point. EU putting pressure on Ireland at the start. Then when they didn't they claimed that the EU was bullying Ireland and Ireland should ignore. And then occasionally they would claim that the EU would bully Ireland (like this piece) and that Ireland should listen. This story will keep coming up and keep being utter bull****. However if they print it enough times people might believe it.

Sam Russell

joe40 wrote: »

What is the money like working in customs. There might be jobs going

Here you are. They are currently recruiting.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/careers/index.aspx

liamtech

farmchoice wrote: »

the proposals are not far short of ridiculous, so we can assume it was not really a serious attempt at getting a deal, so a deal really isn't the plan.
that leaves no deal or extension. the benn act appears to take no deal off the table and by laying out this fantasy plan now on the face of it it gives the opposition even more time to make sure the benn act is implemented.
it looks to me like boris is happy enough that he can neutralize the brexit party in the election, the vast majority of their supporters are tories at heart and they will come back to Boris now that he has played the hard man. he will present the extension he gets as the opposition and the Eu ganging up on him and only by returning him with a majority can he win the day.
not that that will really solve anything because without a majority of about 100 he will be back to having the ERG breathing down his neck.

Hard to disagree with this

Christy42 wrote: »

It is random brexiteer hope at this point. EU putting pressure on Ireland at the start. Then when they didn't they claimed that the EU was bullying Ireland and Ireland should ignore. And then occasionally they would claim that the EU would bully Ireland (like this piece) and that Ireland should listen. This story will keep coming up and keep being utter bull****. However if they print it enough times people might believe it.

Also agreed - its an attempt to divide the EU from Ireland, and simultaneously take a swipe at the domestic oppositions - expect more 'traitors' and 'Capitulation' rhetoric, as the blame game kicks into full swing

AlmightyCushion

Flex wrote: »

Having read the 'two sources familiar with the Withdrawal Agreement claim the EU will put pressure on the government of Ireland' stories yesterday, today the Independent is saying sources in the EU state the UK government proposal falls way short of the requirements

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/brexit/uk-plans-to-offer-eu-two-borders-for-four-years-in-bid-to-abolish-backstop/ar-AAI8Kes?ocid=ientp

Also states that the UK government had briefed numerous EU capitals about the plan, but excluded ourselves from that shortlist

Out of curiosity, I don't for a moment believe there is any merit to what was reported in the UK media yesterday (other EU governments would put pressure on our government to accept a watered down ineffective backstop so long as the remainder of the British offer was reliable or coherent), but out of curiosity does anyone here actually think the EU would have done such a thing?

Perhaps its naivety on my part, but I don't think there would have been any pressure at all applied and I believe our government sources, such as Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee, (along with Michel Barnier, President Macron, Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Bettel, and a countless list of others) when they state there isn't nor has there ever been any pressure applied to us to water down our position or submit to Johnson or any UK government. This is what the EU was created for, states pooling sovereignty and strength to support one another, whether in trade, economic matters, external states behaving aggressively, etc. and the solidarity from 26 other sovereign governments with Ireland has been remarkable.

It has come up countless times that at the last minute the EU will throw us under the bus or will pressure us to take a deal. It hasn't happened so far and the key people in the EU involved in this haven't shown any sign of it either. Quite the opposite, they've always stood by us and re-enforced the need for a backstop and said that they will not consider a deal without one. They have said this numerous times over the past year or more.

It's certainly possible they could put pressure on us, in the way that it's possible that I could knockout a prime Mike Tyson even though I've never boxed in my life but like me knocking out Mike Tyson, I just don't see it happening at all.

lawred2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is unforgivable is the sight of Tory's once again cheerfully and irresponsibly turning issues affecting this island into a Green V Orange ones.

They simply never went away. Hiding in the shadows with their instinctive anti Irish racism... The last twenty years must have been very difficult for them having to contain it while having to speak publicly about 'our Irish friends'

weemcd

liamtech wrote: »

i really hope your correct, i really do. Perhaps Unionist businesses will see the DUP's position as untenable. and move toward the alliance.. or at least away from a hard right DUP/TUV position.. you mention the UUP, i didnt think they were quite as populist/extreme as the DUP? But i defer to you, and i would be interested in hearing what you think regards these various Unionist Blocks.

What i think, is the Unionist community need a strong coherent Unionist party that opposes all of this, to vote for.. they need an alternative.. how about the PUP?

What concerns me is the state of the UK Polls. It really does seem that the Conservatives are soaking up the Brexit Parties support so a right wing split, which i had hoped for (for no other reason than my being a leftie and supporting a second ref) is not gonna happen

More worrying is that Lab and the Lib Dems are at war with each other - neither seem to be impacting the Rights vote in any meaningful way. so the split is on the left, and given FPTP voting - it could be a bloodbath - the Tories could get an insane majority - which would be devastating

interested to see what people have to say

UUP would be to me a DUP lite, someone that Unionists would vote for without going down the fundamentalist road that Arlene and co spout. They have a lot less support, probably because Alliance split their vote. Alliance seem to be the party with momentum at the minute but it's very hard to get a yardstick in Northern Ireland, especially now. If Alliance maintained their gains from European elections into a general election I would see this as a massive plus as they are the one party most likely to work with all other parties without playing sectarian lines.

PUP/TUV etc are a bit of a non entity for me with a tiny share of the vote, but again who knows. I'm still nervous.

Tell me how

54and56 wrote: »

We (RoI) are deadly at referendums.

If Leo et al come under serious pressure to accept a DMZ type checks and controls solution away from each border and/or a time limit on the backstop and/or a Stormont lock so that the "undemocratic' backstop can be made palatable to the HoC wouldn't it be a great idea for Leo to "democratise" the RoI decision and put the proposed solution to a yes/no referendum here?

That would take the decision (and potential blame for being a blocker) away from our politicians and give it to the people who will have to directly live with the consequences.

Agree the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum here which would require a short (2 month?) extension to facilitate.

Good/Bad idea?

Like others, but worth reiterating.
Absolutely not.

It would give credence to the proposal by virtue of being willing to put it to the people.
It would make its success or otherwise an irish issue.
It would absolve UK from holding a confirmatory referendum.

It's so bad, I think you must be Dominic Cummings

Sir Oxman

Professor Genius wrote: »

Not the way she drops the ‘g’ at the end of her verbs. It’s quite gratin’ once you notice it

Off topic - Sadiq Khan is the same!
And Beth Rigbey!

TCDStudent1

Quick question on these new proposals. It was mentioned that after 4 years, the NI assembly would get to say what happens then. What would happen if the NI assembly is not sitting in 4 years time?

Peregrinus

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Quick question on these new proposals. It was mentioned that after 4 years, the NI assembly would get to say what happens then. What would happen if the NI assembly is not sitting in 4 years time?

Then it would have no say.

Nody

Flex wrote: »

but out of curiosity does anyone here actually think the EU would have done such a thing?

Let's be crass about this shall we? Ignore the talk about "Oh if EU does this other small countries could be thrown under the buss" etc. and take it down to pure greedy pragmatism.

What does EU gain from such a deal?
1) Temporary border with inadequate controls in place that is likely to leak non approved goods through
2) A deal with the UK that's only move things on to creating a trade deal with UK knowing they can bully EU

What do they lose?
1) Single market compromised
2) EU country thrown under the bus for someone leaving making it more likely other countries may decide to try to leave
3) Show weakness in negotiations that they can be bullied while dealing with one of the biggest bullies in trade (Trump)

I mean seriously; how can anyone think this is somehow good for the EU to push for it? All that would happen is come the FTA UK will keep bullying EU and EU would keep rolling over so not even the "German car manufacturers and French wine/cheese sellers will demand it" argument would apply as the UK is likely to get an exception on it.

Leroy42

So this deal effectively throws the DUP under the bus doesn't it? Separate from GB in terms of regs and having to live with EU regs without any say in them.

Wasn't that the cornerstone of why the backstop was objected to?

gooch2k9

Leroy42 wrote: »

So this deal effectively throws the DUP under the bus doesn't it? Separate from GB in terms of regs and having to live with EU regs without any say in them.

Wasn't that the cornerstone of why the backstop was objected to?

Effectively throws everyone in NI under the bus. Two borders where none were wanted. Also reliant on a flagrant abuse of petition of concern giving Stormont a veto. Mark Davenport had a twitter thread earlier saying the DUP presented it as "Unionists having a veto".

I see Jamie Bryson's loyalists aren't pleased with being in an "economic United Ireland" for four years that nationalist have a say over staying in. Proposals please nobody except those who want to say they tried for a deal.

Infini

To be perfectly honest these "proposals" aren't anything but useless delusional bullshít. None of them will fly and no locks will be allowed so long as the Dumbáss Unionist Party has any power they're far too incompetent and stupid to be given any sort of power at this point. Boris and friends are being so dense about the issues being caused by their vanity project that they think they just push Ireland around like in the past. Times have long changed and should they continue going down this path they could find themselves without any sort of trade deal from both the US and the EU, the first because they'll have broken an international treaty for their own benefit which alienates any support they can get for a deal from there and the latter we can just simply say any deal get's Veto'd by Ireland so long as they act the maggot and refuse to play ball.

The DUP will ultimately regret their games over this as the likely scenario from their arrogant stupitity is going to be a Border Poll, you dont get to screw over so many people for your own benefit and not pay a price down the line. Destroying peoples jobs, screwing up their lives and selling out your people to benefit the greedy corrupt backers of the Tories never ends well.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

So this deal effectively throws the DUP under the bus doesn't it?

No, because the arrangements are time limited to 4 years. The DUP can hold their breath longer than that.

J Mysterio

I think the plan is designed to fail.

Johnson wants an extension and he wants a General Election. Devious and despicable.

Zubeneschamali

Infini wrote: »

To be perfectly honest these "proposals" aren't anything but useless delusional bullshít.

No, they are not delusional, they are carefully designed and will do their intended job perfectly.

They will annoy Ireland and the EU, they will be rejected in about 10 microseconds, and they will boost Johnson's cred with Brexit voters going into the looming general election.

They are not intended as a serious proposal to the EU at all.

LeinsterDub

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Effectively throws everyone in NI under the bus. Two borders where none were wanted. Also reliant on a flagrant abuse of petition of concern giving Stormont a veto. Mark Davenport had a twitter thread earlier saying the DUP presented it as "Unionists having a veto".

I see Jamie Bryson's loyalists aren't pleased with being in an "economic United Ireland" for four years that nationalist have a say over staying in. Proposals please nobody except those who want to say they tried for a deal.

Couldn't SF issue a counter petition of concern. Which would lead to no change in the status quo?

ZX7R

Did Corbin get the voting age reduced or was it even put forward

J Mysterio

Where possible, Ireland plan to ensure Irish citizens in NI retain EU benefits after any Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-ireland-ehic-card-pay-insurance-northern-irish-coveney-europe-health-coverage-a8874861.html