Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

Statement from UUP leader Robin Swann MLA

Ulster Unionist Leader, Robin Swann MLA, has stated that the new proposals from the UK Government would see Northern Ireland left in a perpetual cycle of uncertainty.
Robin Swann MLA said:


“The Prime Minister and the DUP are fooling no-one with these proposals. This new protocol should be deeply concerning for all those who have the long term economic and constitutional welfare of Northern Ireland and its people at heart.


“Northern Ireland would be locked into continual political debates about Brexit and alignment with the rest of the UK or EU. They would set the theme of every Assembly and Westminster election. It plunges Northern Ireland into a referendum in the Assembly Chamber every four years with high stakes consequences for our people. It will keep our businesses and agri-food sector in a perpetual cycle of uncertainty.


“These proposals haven`t been thought through and would see DUP statements that Northern Ireland would leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the United Kingdom being flipped on their heads.
“Northern Ireland would become a hybrid part of the UK with a border up the Irish Sea.


“This represents a road to Damascus conversion by the DUP and a very sharp u-turn on statements they made to the Northern Ireland public. The Prime Minister and the DUP were full of big talk. These proposals don`t offer them much of a fig leaf.”

https://uup.org/news/6253/21/Prime-Minister-and-DUP-fooling-no-one-Swann#.XZTHJ_4nZhF


Statement followed by a bunch of quotes of DUP saying they won't countenance any differences to rest of UK.

fash

First Up wrote: »

fash wrote:

The UK can stay in a no deal for longer than one might expect- why would Johnson not brazen it out for 5 years, blaming the EU along the way?

He can blame who he likes. The people he'll have to answer to are not the EU.

True enough- but it's quite possible he'll only have to face those people after 5 years.

FrancieBrady

Juncker spoiling Boris's day by not dismissing plans out of hand.

joe40

It seems to me that this won't pass and Boris will be forced to get extension despite what he says.
However there will then be an election which conservatives have a good chance winning.
So straight back to square one. Depressing at this stage

prawnsambo

fash wrote: »

True enough- but it's quite possible he'll only have to face those people after 5 years.

Well that's highly unlikely given the state of his negative majority and the polls being less than encouraging should an election be called. Even if he manages to hang on somehow, the next election would be in 2022 anyway.

GM228

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Juncker spoiling Boris's day by not dismissing plans out of hand.

Has agreed to further UK/EU talks.

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1179424754517852160?s=19

Tippex

GM228 wrote: »

Has agreed to further UK/EU talks.

The interesting thing will be that Michel Barnier will most likely trash this.

FrancieBrady

GM228 wrote: »

Has agreed to further UK/EU talks.

Yes. Not playing the UK game to try and make it look like the EU are intransigent.

fash

prawnsambo wrote: »

fash wrote: »

True enough- but it's quite possible he'll only have to face those people after 5 years.

Well that's highly unlikely given the state of his negative majority and the polls being less than encouraging should an election be called. Even if he manages to hang on somehow, the next election would be in 2022 anyway.

I am assuming he gets and wins an election some time before actual Brexit (e.g. December) or during the "warm glow" following a "nothing agreed" exit. There is of course a possibility that he does not win or wins in an unstable way in which case his form of Brexit does not happen or if he wins in an unstable way, is not sustainable due to defections.

Tacitus Kilgore

Reading the replies to Farage' tweet would radicalize even the most moderate of Irishmen

First Up

fash wrote:

True enough- but it's quite possible he'll only have to face those people after 5 years.

You would hope that the PM would attach some importance to the welfare of the country as well as the next election.

ToBeFrank123

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

If we accept this deal, we have a border and that's it. At least if we hold out there is a chance at no border (because they went with the WA or withdraw article 50) or we do get a border but because the UK does not have a deal with the EU (and won't get one until they sort the border issue) it will put them in a very bad position that they could reconsider the WA again.

No deal is bad, but a bad deal that puts a border up is even worse. This is a bad deal.

No deal equals a border. It means reverting to WTA rules, tariffs, customs and so on. No Deal crashout also lets the UK off the hook.

GM228

Johnson is to request the Queen to prorogue Parliament again, next week for 3 days.

is_that_so

Tippex wrote: »

The interesting thing will be that Michel Barnier will most likely trash this.

After negotiating a bit first. They'll prod to see where the real UK red lines are. As it stands can't see it providing an agreement.

Alun

GM228 wrote: »

Johnson is to request the Queen to prorogue Parliament again, next week for 3 days.

For what reason?

GM228

There's a great summary of the proposals in this thread:-

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1179403321280536577?s=19

GM228

Alun wrote: »

For what reason?

Queens speech.

Strazdas

Tippex wrote: »

The interesting thing will be that Michel Barnier will most likely trash this.

Most analysts think this is essentially a 'tactical manoeuvre' by Johnson and is not meant to be a serious offer.

He seems to be playing the long game and this is merely a minor step or diversion before he moves onto the next phase.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

Queens speech.

'Frosty' wouldn't begin to describe that meeting.

Imreoir2

Mefistofelino wrote: »

I wouldn't be too ecstatic. Currently there are interconnector projects between the Ireland & UK and UK to France. Effectively, because of Brexit, we've now got to install a massive extension lead between Ireland and France. Given the cost of similar projects, that will be North of a billion euro, of which the EU will give~ half. We still have to pony up at least half a billion Euro for infrastructure that probably wouldn't have been required otherwise.

Yes, but it could be of significant benefit to us. There are already quite a few companies exploring the development of extensive windfarms off the south coast. This would allow us to generate clean energy for ourselves and also to sell into the European energy market.

Tippex

Strazdas wrote: »

Most analysts think this is essentially a 'tactical manoeuvre' by Johnson and is not meant to be a serious offer.

He seems to be playing the long game and this is merely a minor step or diversion before he moves onto the next phase.

yep but my comment was more in response to the Jean Claude Junker statement being relatively conciliatory

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

No deal equals a border. It means reverting to WTA rules, tariffs, customs and so on. No Deal crashout also lets the UK off the hook.

Not necessarily, we can make life hell for as long as the Tory Troll party is in charge and Britain acts the bellend in all of this. There's some under the illusion they can bully our country around, they're delusional because by harning us theyre harming the rest of the EU and there will be consequences for this.

They'll be forced to either agree to the backstop in full in the end, have a border poll, or rot in ignomonity and stupidity till they're forced by the sheer reality of their situation to accept the EUs conditions as they have no power and wont survive long if they crash out, theyll be Diplomatically, Politically and Economically bankrupt from all of this.

Kermit.de.frog

You can't eat a Union flag...

https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1179416394158489605

Imreoir2

GM228 wrote: »

Queens speech.

What is the point of a Queens Speach, setting out the governments legislative program for the coming session, if you are at the same time demanding an election because you can't get anything done in parliament?

Seems rather contradictory if you ask me.

BorneTobyWilde

No immediate rejection from Michelle Barney Eh . That has to be progress. Seems they are looking at what is on offer.

Hurrache

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No immediate rejection from Michelle Barney Eh . That has to be progress. Seems they are looking at what is on offer.

They're just not playing Johnson's game. He's brought along his picture cards to a game of chess.

FrancieBrady

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No immediate rejection from Michelle Barney Eh . That has to be progress. Seems they are looking at what is on offer.

I suspect they are playing the game. If the EU out and out reject this with unseemly haste, Boris gets to point the blame finger and buy himself some more of those all important Brexit votes.

GM228

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What is the point of a Queens Speach, setting out the governments legislative program for the coming session, if you are at the same time demanding an election because you can't get anything done in parliament?

Seems rather contradictory if you ask me.

Indeed, and imagine Johnson loosing the QS also!

Kermit.de.frog

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No immediate rejection from Michelle Barney Eh . That has to be progress. Seems they are looking at what is on offer.

He made clear though there can be no border on the island of Ireland. In other words NI should remain in the CU.

Also a veto for unionists is never going to be acceptable either.

Nody

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No immediate rejection from Michelle Barney Eh . That has to be progress. Seems they are looking at what is on offer.

They are pissing in Boris cornflakes to be frank. Boris wanted EU to outright say no to allow him to play the "Look I tried but EU are the real baddies" card to his base. But EU stating they will look at it in more detail etc. they pulled out the rug for Boris and suddenly it becomes a death by a thousand cuts as EU raises questions on individual points asking Boris to clarify how this will be done, or that etc. forcing him to show he has no clue on how to resolve them. The blame suddenly starts to shift back to Boris and his own proposal instead of big bad EU being bullies about it.