Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

gooch2k9

GM228 wrote: »

Indeed, and imagine Johnson loosing the QS also!

Does losing the QS vote not act as a VoNC?

Imreoir2

As much as a swift rejection of this BS would be gratifying, I would rather see the EU bury Johnson in detailed negiotiations on his proposals. Drag out every shortcoming in the proposal over weeks, expose every contradiction and flasehood in his statements on what his proposals mean. Put the discussions in the tunnel and keep them there with a slow drip exposing all the problems these proposals create for the EU, the UK and NI.

Keep him tied up until he has to ask for an extension to allow all the issues in his proposals to adressed, or force him to cut off discussions on his own proposals so the UK can leave with no-deal.

GM228

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Does losing the QS vote not act as a VoNC?

No, a VONC would still need to be proposed or Johnson just resigned (which is what happened in the three previous occasions a QS was defeated).

Junkyard Tom

Yeah the EU says 'this is good, we're on the right track but we just need to completely change everything so this becomes the original backstop in all but name'.

Kermit.de.frog

Johnson: We have removed the backstop.

Juncker & Barnier: More work needs to be done on the backstop.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I suspect they are playing the game. If the EU out and out reject this with unseemly haste, Boris gets to point the blame finger and buy himself some more of those all important Brexit votes.

Exactly. Juncker and Barnier have been around this barbecue before. You make soothing noises, thank them for their homework, point out areas that may need 'further work', mention the GFA (it hasn't gone away you know) and of course the single market and tell them you'll be reading it carefully with your red lines in mind. And then finish off by telling them that you'll be talking to everyone about it over the coming days. Including the Taoiseach of course. Lots to do, don't wait up.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

No, a VONC would still need to be proposed.

Apparently it does. Another of those 'conventions'. Losing a QS means that your legislative programme doesn't meet with the approval of parliament and that's pretty much the death knell for a government. And yes, this is new territory in UK government terms and it's a PM that doesn't do convention. But even if he doesn't, a QS is open to amendments. And that's where the fun starts.

Tea Shock

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Also a veto for unionists is never going to be acceptable either.

It's a veto for Stormont - all of it - of which the DUP only hold 27 of the 90 seats and all of the unionist party's combined only have 40...and the UUP have 10 of those and they're not one bit happy today!

gooch2k9

Tea Shock wrote: »

It's a veto for Stormont - all of it - of which the DUP only hold 27 of the 90 seats and all of the unionist party's combined only have 40...and the UUP have 10 of those and they're not one bit happy today!

The DUP have 27 seats, TUV have one(Allister) who will follow them on this issue. I can't see the EU agreeing to something that's vulnerable to two politicians being in bad form on a certain day. Thirty votes needed for PoC.

GM228

prawnsambo wrote: »

Apparently it does. Another of those 'conventions'. Losing a QS means that your legislative programme doesn't meet with the approval of parliament and that's pretty much the death knell for a government. And yes, this is new territory in UK government terms and it's a PM that doesn't do convention. But even if he doesn't, a QS is open to amendments. And that's where the fun starts.

Prior to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the QS was considered a confidence vote, that is no longer the case. Loosing the QS is not a VONC, such a vote still needs to be proposed.

A QS has not been lost in 95 years (and only 3 times in total), today it would be expected the PM would resign if he lost, but this is Johnson we are dealing with - he is good at loosing and even better at ignoring the fact he has lost.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I suspect they are playing the game. If the EU out and out reject this with unseemly haste, Boris gets to point the blame finger and buy himself some more of those all important Brexit votes.

100% : Johnson would love it if they came out with all guns blazing tonight

cml387

Surely Johnson doesn't intend to parachute the Queen into this sh!tstorm?

Tea Shock

gooch2k9 wrote: »

The DUP have 27 seats, TUV have one(Allister) who will follow them on this issue. I can't see the EU agreeing to something that's vulnerable to two politicians being in bad form on a certain day. Thirty votes needed for PoC.

A petition of concern doesn't equate to veto!

LeinsterDub

GM228 wrote: »

Queens speech.

So the new plan is to get a GE via the opposition rejecting the queens speech?

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

He made clear though there can be no border on the island of Ireland. In other words NI should remain in the CU.

Also a veto for unionists is never going to be acceptable either.

How does a veto for unionists even work? Is there a register of them?

Could I identify as one if it suited?

Surely the Tories didn't mean a veto just for one political party!?

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1179447035096907776

Imreoir2

Tea Shock wrote: »

It's a veto for Stormont - all of it - of which the DUP only hold 27 of the 90 seats and all of the unionist party's combined only have 40...and the UUP have 10 of those and they're not one bit happy today!

Its a veto for any group of MLAs who can get 30 to sign a petition of concern, which has been abused frequently by the DUP over the last decade.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1179447035096907776

Full text of statement:

https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1179447567953907715

gooch2k9

Tea Shock wrote: »

A petition of concern doesn't equate to veto!

It does in this instance.

Change it to Stormont has to actively vote to change to UK regulations at the end and see if DUP support these proposals then. It has been designed in a such a way as it does equate a veto.

It's a risky one all the same for the DUP. Alliance are on the rise here and they don't support cutting NI off from the EU. Suppose they could always collapse the institutions in the lead up to the vote date, so they exit by default.

Imreoir2

lawred2 wrote: »

How does a veto for unionists even work? Is there a register of them?

Could I identify as one if it suited?

Surely the Tories didn't mean a veto just for one political party!?

Yes, every MLA in stormont registers as Nationalist, Unionist or Other. A petition of concern can allow one side or the other to block legislation if 30 MLAs come together. If Stormont had to opt in to EU regulations, Unionists could veto that opt in through a petition of concern even if a majority of MLAs voted in favour.

Mr.Nice Guy

Tea Shock wrote: »

A petition of concern doesn't equate to veto!

It does. That's how the DUP were able to block same sex marriage in NI even though a majority of the assembly were in favour of it.

Kermit.de.frog

gooch2k9 wrote: »

It does in this instance.

Change it to Stormont has to actively vote to change to UK regulations at the end and see if DUP support these proposals then. It has been designed in a such a way as it does equate a veto.

It's a risky one all the same for the DUP. Alliance are on the rise here and they don't support cutting NI off from the EU. Suppose they could always collapse the institutions in the lead up to the vote date, so they exit by default.

Arelene Foster this evening said crystal clearly her interpretation is that is cross community support that is needed.

NOT a simple majority.

Ergo Unionist veto.

Tea Shock

I might have been misunderstanding it....had it backwards. We're talking in terms of vetoing the status quo (i.e. with the effect of NI NOT staying in the regulatory zone) , rather than vetoing it the opposite way (i.e. with the effect of NI staying in the regulatory zone)



In any case, Sinn Fein and the SDLP can also reach 30 easily!

briany

The backstop question should be put to the people of Northern Ireland. If not to its people then at least some convoluted vote among the current (but non-sitting) MLAs. Biggest joke in this thing is that the Assembly is not sitting. If they're not sitting now before Brexit has even happened, I fail to see how Brexit will bring them any closer to being in the same room. It seems like the kind of thing that will only deepen division.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

Prior to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the QS was considered a confidence vote, that is no longer the case. Loosing the QS is not a VONC, such a vote still needs to be proposed.

A QS has not been lost in 95 years (and only 3 times in total), today it would be expected the PM would resign if he lost, but this is Johnson we are dealing with - he is good at loosing and even better at ignoring the fact he has lost.

Well I pretty much accepted that with the caveat that a government couldn't continue on that basis. But these are different times and as I pointed out, a QS is amendable. Which is mana from heaven to an opposition that can outvote the government. No need to get a SO24 past the Speaker with a QS.

PopePalpatine

Nody wrote: »

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No immediate rejection from Michelle Barney Eh . That has to be progress. Seems they are looking at what is on offer.

They are pissing in Boris cornflakes to be frank. Boris wanted EU to outright say no to allow him to play the "Look I tried but EU are the real baddies" card to his base. But EU stating they will look at it in more detail etc. they pulled out the rug for Boris and suddenly it becomes a death by a thousand cuts as EU raises questions on individual points asking Boris to clarify how this will be done, or that etc. forcing him to show he has no clue on how to resolve them. The blame suddenly starts to shift back to Boris and his own proposal instead of big bad EU being bullies about it.

Apart from where it matters, BoJo's reliable chums at the oligarch press.

lawred2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Yes, every MLA in stormont registers as Nationalist, Unionist or Other. A petition of concern can allow one side or the other to block legislation if 30 MLAs come together. If Stormont had to opt in to EU regulations, Unionists could veto that opt in through a petition of concern even if a majority of MLAs voted in favour.

Total non runner

gooch2k9

Tea Shock wrote: »

I might have been misunderstanding it....had it backwards. We're talking in terms of vetoing the status quo (i.e. with the effect of NI NOT staying in the regulatory zone) , rather than vetoing it the opposite way (i.e. with the effect of NI staying in the regulatory zone)



In any case, Sinn Fein and the SDLP can also reach 30 easily!

If a PoC is presented it requires a 60% overall majority plus at least 40% support from each community. It's not a matter of counter-PoC. DUP and TUV make 28/40 so 70% against and so the vote falls.

Obviously the make up may be different come the voting date.

Spanish Eyes

prawnsambo wrote: »

'Frosty' wouldn't begin to describe that meeting.

I doubt Johnson gives a hoot. He doesn't care about anything or anyone but himself. Odious person really with little respect for the country he represents or the Queen either. Just wants to be in power along with Trump his twin, and swats everyone else away with rousing soundbytes for the Tory faithful. Oh and kill the Brexit Party while he's at it.

All going according to plan so.

J Mysterio

Its no wonder Arlene and the DuP are happy now.

Ian Dunt wrote:

It was only moments into his speech that Boris Johnson started lying. "We will under no circumstances," he said, "have checks at or near the border in Northern Ireland." It was false. Overnight, the details of his Brexit proposals to Brussels had leaked. They showed that there clearly would be checks. The British commitment to preventing any customs infrastructure in Ireland would be broken.

Once upon a time, Johnson could make these claims because he was engaged in the magical thinking of 'frictionless trade' and 'alternative arrangements'. There's no excuse for that now.

The Johnson offer to the EU will be published this afternoon, but last night's leak by the Telegraph's Peter Foster was largely corroborated by the details the prime minister offered in his speech. It works by separating out two elements of a future trading relationship: customs and regulations.

Customs involves the assessment of tariffs on goods. Regulations involve checks on whether the goods comply with the rules of the country they're being  sent to. In the EU, none of this matters - you have the same tariff regime and the same rules. Outside the EU, it all needs to be checked.

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/02/johnson-s-brexit-plan-no-viability-no-decency-no-hope

Foster thinks that being in a UK Customs Union maintains their Britishness, especially so with a great big stonking border put in to separate Northern Ireland out from Ireland. This makes up for the Sea Border ("EU Single Market") aspect, while also allowing *some* trade continue. And, at any rate, they intend to quit the arrangement after 4 years anyway, and 'rejoin' UK proper with a nice premade border ready to go.

Seems genius from their perspective. This is real cake and eat it stuff. UK is basically saying, we are going to have Brexit and that means putting up a hard border on Ireland again. They are dressing this up as democratic by vesting the 'veto' in DUP hands. The short time frame is a risk for them, but a calculated one.

The arrangement would also allow UK gov to stop having to think about NI, which it doesn't give a toss about. Consider the half arsed, half baked plans for generators on the sea.

I thought Johnson's speech at DUP HQ was hilarious. At one point he literally said 'looking at your seething f'... He was going to say 'seething faces' but corrected himself to 'seething sea of faces'.