Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

NotToScale

I'm probably being ludicrously petty, but on the off chance that customs centres get built, can we at least name then in honor of key Brexiteers?

There's Boris busses, Boris bikes... How about a Boris Border?

The Tories and the DUP need to own their Brexit. It's grossly unfai r to steal their limelight by accepting any kind of credit for it in Ireland or the EU.

They've worked so hard to do so much damage, the least they deserve is full naming rights of the border infrastructure.

BonnieSituation

NotToScale wrote: »

I'm probably being ludicrously petty, but on the off chance that customs centres get built, can we at least name then in honor of key Brexiteers?

There's Boris busses, Boris bikes... How about a Boris Border?

The Tories and the DUP need to own their Brexit. It's grossly unfai r to steal their limelight by accepting any kind of credit for it in Ireland or the EU.

They've worked so hard to do so much damage, the least they deserve is full naming rights of the border infrastructure.

Well for starters I really would like "British Border in Ireland" to start catching on. When I hear "Irish border problem", I bristle.

salonfire

I'm going to be devil's advocate here and look at the proposals for the UK POV.

- Customs checkpoints near the border.
If they are random in nature, so what? We already have checkpoints where they check for red diesel. There's also checkpoints where Gardai board buses to check immigration status of people who crossed the border.

People with northern reg cars are already stopped regularly and questioned about their work and residence.

Business will have to comply with customs tariffs. Again, so what? They already have to deal with different currency changes and VAT rates. Car dealers have to impose VRT on their imports.


-The Single Market
If NI wants to stay aligned with the EU, then it's up to the electorate there to ensure the balance of power is not given to the DUP. If they continue to elect the DUP knowing that they will pull away from the EU, then that's the electorate's wish. Unlikely to happen given the reaction from all sections of NI apart from DUP. If it does, they built their own hard border.

prawnsambo

salonfire wrote: »

I'm going to be devil's advocate here and look at the proposals for the UK POV.

- Customs checkpoints near the border.
If they are random in nature, so what? We already have checkpoints where they check for red diesel. There's also checkpoints where Gardai board buses to check immigration status of people who crossed the border.

People with northern reg cars are already stopped regularly and questioned about their work and residence.

Business will have to comply with customs tariffs. Again, so what? They already have to deal with different currency changes and VAT rates. Car dealers have to impose VRT on their imports.


-The Single Market
If NI wants to stay aligned with the EU, then it's up to the electorate there to ensure the balance of power is not given to the DUP. If they continue to elect the DUP knowing that they will pull away from the EU, then that's the electorate's wish. Unlikely to happen given the reaction from all sections of NI apart from DUP. If it does, they built their own hard border.

A random check for red/green diesel happens everywhere in Ireland, not just at the border. And for 99% of people, has no effect on anything other than a slight delay. Customs checks affect every single commercial vehicle and a lot of private vehicles too.

Tariffs and customs will kill the NI agri-food business stone dead. The external tariff on beef, for example is €3.03 per Kg plus 12% on value. They're eye-wateringly high.

And there are multi-crossings of the border in a product life-cycle. Baileys crosses the border seven times during its production cycle.

And that's just a snippet of trade. The real issue is the end of the all-Ireland economy and cross-border services. So no more shared health service etc.

Popeleo

Rory Stewart has resigned from the Conservative party and isn't standing in the next election (not in his present constituency anyway).

A shame as he might have been a good future Con leader to bring back stability after the present sh*tshow calms down. But maybe he thinks it has now gone too far for that to be possible:


Rory Stewart
@RoryStewartUK
It’s been a great privilege to serve Penrith and The Border for the last ten years, so it is with sadness that I am announcing that I will be standing down at the next election, and that I have also resigned from the Conservative Party.

liamtech

So if we ignore the other possibilities

• Revoke A50
• No Deal Brexit
• a Deal based on Johnsons ideas (i know.. lets try and hold the laughter for now)

The General Election seems the most likely outcome - and many people believe it will solve nothing and will return a fairly hung parliament. The problem is that i believe there is a significant chance that it will solve the problem, but not in the way we hope. There is Every chance of a Conservative majority, or a Tory/Brexit Party supported Majority

• The Labor Party. Let me be clear i admire Corbyn and i agree with his policies - he is a proper lefty, unlike the Blairite champagne socialism that came before - Unfortunately this is not what is needed right now in the UK, in terms of winning a majority and ousting the Tories - Corbyn's seemingly extreme measures that he is spouting daily (doing away with private schools, nationalizations, taxing the rich) - its fantastic to a lefty like me - but there are 3 sections within the British Electorate now - Labor Supporters, Tory Right Wing supporters, and the middle ground - and a cleavage running through each of these along Leave/Remain lines - So Jeremy can be delighted with cheers at his conference, but he is clearly not appealing to the middle, and certainly not the right - Corbyn is a fantastic Socialist, but he is not a politician - he is a campaign activist - and he is not making up any ground in the middle - and in terms of Brexit Policy, Labor is about as clear as the view from my window during a snow storm - This election is about Brexit - and what is Labors Brexit policy? It would need a few large diagrams and a thesis to explain that here
• The Lib Dems - Under Swinson they have made a break through in the polls - but unfortunately it is at labors expense - Swinsons intransigence against labor in its current form negates the possibility of working together before or after the election - So if there is a split in the Uk GE, its clearly gonna be a center/center-Left split, which will destroy the remain/soft-Brexit Block in the HOC - The Lib Dems are now more appealing to Remain Voters, and the more moderate Left wing voters will flock in their direction, as opposed to Corbyns -
• Torys/Brexit party - lets be clear, despite everything they are polling well - They are robbing each others votes but i think a split/collapse is unlikely - even with BoJo refusing a non aggression pact, its obvious that Farage is gonna target Labor, the Lib Dems, and weak/soft Tories - This will mean that the next HOC will more than likely have a greater hard Brexit Block within it and even if not an outright coalition, they will co-operate, especially if its a no Deal

If the Labor party and the Lib Dems worked together all of this could be avoided - But Swinson is convinced she has a chance of carrying a REAL electoral breakthrough, so i cant see her changing sails now - and Corbyn? No he is generally unlikely to do anything differently - these two remain/softer blocks wont work together and will weaken one another in the GE - remember this is a FPTP system

The only area's where Remain/Softer-Brexit might make ground, in my opinion are:

• Scotland - i think the SNP will take the vast majority, if not ALL of the seats north of Hadrian's wall - Scotland Conservatism was on the downward spiral - Ruth Davidson throwing in the towel, for me anyway, spells there collapse in the next election
• Northern Ireland - those of us that watched the View last night will have seen that the DUP are totally alone in the north - all of the other Unionist blocks are against BoJo's non-deal and there is a chance, however remote that the DUP may lose their seats to the UUP or the Alliance - the DUP have infuriated moderate Unionism with this 'Worst of Both Worlds' deal - and alienated the Hard Unionist voters by 'selling out'

Il be interested to see what everyone has to say but it is not looking good in my humble opinion

unless a caretaker comes in and extends for a Second referendum, then whatever returns Post GE, will hold the whip hand, and its looking like said post GE HOC will be Pro Hard Brexit, as opposed to soft/remain

FrancieBrady

salonfire wrote: »

I'm going to be devil's advocate here and look at the proposals for the UK POV.

- Customs checkpoints near the border.
If they are random in nature, so what? We already have checkpoints where they check for red diesel. There's also checkpoints where Gardai board buses to check immigration status of people who crossed the border.

People with northern reg cars are already stopped regularly and questioned about their work and residence.

Business will have to comply with customs tariffs. Again, so what? They already have to deal with different currency changes and VAT rates. Car dealers have to impose VRT on their imports.

Put aside what this will mean to some - i.e. re-partition, and what that will mean to the peace and listen to the business and farming interests at the coalface. They are referring to these proposals as 'worse than No Deal'

-The Single Market
If NI wants to stay aligned with the EU, then it's up to the electorate there to ensure the balance of power is not given to the DUP. If they continue to elect the DUP knowing that they will pull away from the EU, then that's the electorate's wish. Unlikely to happen given the reaction from all sections of NI apart from DUP. If it does, they built their own hard border.

Again, you need to look at how this will operate in the context of the GFA. It isn't as simple as 'the people ensuring the balance of power'.
The majority of people and MLA's want the rights guaranteed under the GFA legislated for but a Unionist bloc has successfully blocked that from happening. That has resulted in the collapse of the Executive.

Not to mention that the uncertainty around this would keep the whole island in turmoil on a 4 year cycle.
Complete disaster for all.

Clare in Exile

Jonathan Powell was just on Sky News with Adam Bolton. A rock of sense, explained the current situation perfectly and drew attention to the nuances of NI politics. A shame that we now have the Conservative and Unionist Party overseeing things, any sense of impartiality regarding the North is long gone. Dangerous times...

prawnsambo

No insults please. is always able to accurately get to the heart of the matter. He just nails it every time.

GM228

Just a reminder that the substantive proceedings in the Outer House start this morning:-

The petition for today's hearing:-

https://www.dropbox.com/s/h2wjktj5yb1zods/Petition%20as%20lodged%20-%20order%20for%20specific%20performance%20by%20PM.PDF?dl=0

And the petition for Tuesday's hearing in the Inner House (which will also no doubt deal with an appeal on today's action - the judgement for which will be on Monday):-

https://www.dropbox.com/s/c2nr48i6feg0v0t/Final%20adjusted%20NO%20Petition.pdf?dl=0

Roger_007

So Boris has come up with his 'Cummings' plan which in large part depends on the NI Assembly to rubber stamp it, thereby giving it 'democratic' legitimacy.
Can anyone see any possibility of the Assembly getting up and running again anytime soon, or indeed ever. I, for one can't see it. The longer the present dysfunction lasts the more entrenched each side will become.
Even in the event of the Assembly, (if it were functioning), initially approving the plan, the DUP could scupper it after 4 years by exercising their effective veto. In fact, I would guess that that's exactly what they have agreed with Boris in return for them suspiciously conceding on the 'border down the Irish Sea' idea to which, up to now, they were implacably opposed.
These proposals have a very bad smell about them.

fash

liamtech wrote: »

So if we ignore the other possibilities

• Revoke A50
• No Deal Brexit
• a Deal based on Johnsons ideas (i know.. lets try and hold the laughter for now)

The General Election seems the most likely outcome - and many people believe it will solve nothing and will return a fairly hung parliament. The problem is that i believe there is a significant chance that it will solve the problem, but not in the way we hope. There is Every chance of a Conservative majority, or a Tory/Brexit Party supported Majority

• The Labor Party. Let me be clear i admire Corbyn and i agree with his policies - he is a proper lefty, unlike the Blairite champagne socialism that came before - Unfortunately this is not what is needed right now in the UK, in terms of winning a majority and ousting the Tories - Corbyn's seemingly extreme measures that he is spouting daily (doing away with private schools, nationalizations, taxing the rich) - its fantastic to a lefty like me - but there are 3 sections within the British Electorate now - Labor Supporters, Tory Right Wing supporters, and the middle ground - and a cleavage running through each of these along Leave/Remain lines - So Jeremy can be delighted with cheers at his conference, but he is clearly not appealing to the middle, and certainly not the right - Corbyn is a fantastic Socialist, but he is not a politician - he is a campaign activist - and he is not making up any ground in the middle - and in terms of Brexit Policy, Labor is about as clear as the view from my window during a snow storm - This election is about Brexit - and what is Labors Brexit policy? It would need a few large diagrams and a thesis to explain that here
• The Lib Dems - Under Swinson they have made a break through in the polls - but unfortunately it is at labors expense - Swinsons intransigence against labor in its current form negates the possibility of working together before or after the election - So if there is a split in the Uk GE, its clearly gonna be a center/center-Left split, which will destroy the remain/soft-Brexit Block in the HOC - The Lib Dems are now more appealing to Remain Voters, and the more moderate Left wing voters will flock in their direction, as opposed to Corbyns -
• Torys/Brexit party - lets be clear, despite everything they are polling well - They are robbing each others votes but i think a split/collapse is unlikely - even with BoJo refusing a non aggression pact, its obvious that Farage is gonna target Labor, the Lib Dems, and weak/soft Tories - This will mean that the next HOC will more than likely have a greater hard Brexit Block within it and even if not an outright coalition, they will co-operate, especially if its a no Deal

If the Labor party and the Lib Dems worked together all of this could be avoided - But Swinson is convinced she has a chance of carrying a REAL electoral breakthrough, so i cant see her changing sails now - and Corbyn? No he is generally unlikely to do anything differently - these two remain/softer blocks wont work together and will weaken one another in the GE - remember this is a FPTP system

The only area's where Remain/Softer-Brexit might make ground, in my opinion are:

• Scotland - i think the SNP will take the vast majority, if not ALL of the seats north of Hadrian's wall - Scotland Conservatism was on the downward spiral - Ruth Davidson throwing in the towel, for me anyway, spells there collapse in the next election
• Northern Ireland - those of us that watched the View last night will have seen that the DUP are totally alone in the north - all of the other Unionist blocks are against BoJo's non-deal and there is a chance, however remote that the DUP may lose their seats to the UUP or the Alliance - the DUP have infuriated moderate Unionism with this 'Worst of Both Worlds' deal - and alienated the Hard Unionist voters by 'selling out'

Il be interested to see what everyone has to say but it is not looking good in my humble opinion

unless a caretaker comes in and extends for a Second referendum, then whatever returns Post GE, will hold the whip hand, and its looking like said post GE HOC will be Pro Hard Brexit, as opposed to soft/remain

Correct: Johnson returns then we must accept no deal and wait for the UK to calm down/break up. Whatever that takes.

Hurrache

briany wrote: »

Boris Johnson's speech to the DUP at the Tory conference was just sad.

"Northern Ireland is a part of the UK, and let it remain so forever! Let it it remain so forever!"

(from audience)

"No surrender, Boris!"

Christ almighty. The days of a neutral stance toward Northern Ireland are long gone. This is going to get considerably worse before it gets better.

I think the biggest issue with this, that seems to have gone by unnoticed, is that there was a statement from the UK government at the time of the GFA saying they won't be claiming NI as theirs from then on (despite the republic acknowledging NI is part of the UK) or something like that. I must try dig it out.

edit: I think this is what I'm thinking of, from Wikipedia

As part of the agreement, the British parliament repealed the Government of Ireland Act 1920 (which had established Northern Ireland, partitioned Ireland and asserted a territorial claim over all of Ireland) and the people of the Republic of Ireland amended Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution of Ireland, which asserted a territorial claim over Northern Ireland.

The UK riding roughshod over the GFA as if it doesn't even exist.

the power of the sovereign government with jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions and shall be founded on the principles of full respect for, and equality of, civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights, of freedom from discrimination for all citizens, and of parity of esteem and of just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos and aspirations of both communities.

Water John

The Tories also lose a bunch of seats in the South West of England to the Lib Dems, so they are starting with a handicap.

maebee

Simon Coventry on with Sean O'Rourke now speaking sense as usual. He's given a long list of prominent Unionists who have stated that BoJo's latest proposal just will not work.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

Philippe Lamberts (or as I call him: M. Bullsh1t) is always able to accurately get to the heart of the matter. He just nails it every time.

He's 100% correct, Johnson honestly believes himself to be the next coming of Churchill and he's manufacturing his Battle of Britain to make other people believe it too

Hurrache

Roger_007 wrote: »

Even in the event of the Assembly, (if it were functioning), initially approving the plan, the DUP could scupper it after 4 years by exercising their effective veto.

It's worse. Even if the EU were mad enough to accept this plan, once the plan is signed between all parties, the DUP then have their chance to veto it before it's even implemented.

Patser

If Johnson's plan did come in (I know, I know), could the veto power of the Northen Assembly prove to be a poison chalice for the DUP - Northern farmers and businesses would already be getting shafted in the plan as is, so knowing that whoever is in the assembly has the power to make it worse, could force them the shift dramatically from voting for the DUP if they looked to be triggering their veto.

Water John

The veto is the wrong way round TMK, the default is NI going with the UK.

prawnsambo

Patser wrote: »

If Johnson's plan did come in (I know, I know), could the veto power of the Northen Assembly prove to be a poison chalice for the DUP - Northern farmers and businesses would already be getting shafted in the plan as is, so knowing that whoever is in the assembly has the power to make it worse, could force them the shift dramatically from voting for the DUP if they looked to be triggering their veto.

The damage is done though. It would take an election to change things in Stormont and I don't think they would change that radically in the DUP heartlands. And of course as pointed out above, they can exercise their veto immediately. That's it, game over.

Zubeneschamali

liamtech wrote: »

There is Every chance of a Conservative majority, or a Tory/Brexit Party supported Majority

If a UK Government with a disciplined majority wants to leave with No Deal, there is nothing the EU can do to stop them. This has always been the case.

We will, as Varadkar said yesterday, just have to live with No Deal for a while until some future deal with the UK.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

The damage is done though. It would take an election to change things in Stormont and I don't think they would change that radically in the DUP heartlands. And of course as pointed out above, they can exercise their veto immediately. That's it, game over.

While people might flock back to traditional parties to circle the wagons in the next GE, recent polling is quite interesting. Every party bar one has seen a drop in support since the 2017 election.

The biggest drops have been in unionism; DUP 36% down to 29% and the UUP 15% down to 9%. This equates to -12%.

SF/SDLP are down a combined 5%.

Others (Green, TUV etc.) are up 4% to 8%. The big winners? The Alliance Party has gone from 8% to 21%. A jump of 13%.

Seeds of hope perhaps.

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar getting pilloried on TalkRadio atm for saying polls show UK might want to remain.

He seems to have a knack of getting up the nose of ERG voter types.

With Juncker and Tusk on the way out they have to hone in on someone I guess.

Roger_007

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar getting pilloried on TalkRadio atm for saying polls show UK might want to remain.

He seems to have a knack of getting up the nose of ERG voter types.

With Juncker and Tusk on the way out they have to hone in on someone I guess.

That was an incredibly stupid statement for Leo to make. It just hands ammunition to the hard Brexiteers.
Leo should just leave the talking to Coveney.

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar getting pilloried on TalkRadio atm for saying polls show UK might want to remain.

He seems to have a knack of getting up the nose of ERG voter types.

With Juncker and Tusk on the way out they have to hone in on someone I guess.

an irish, indian gay man who doesn't know his place, whats not to hate.

farmchoice

Roger_007 wrote: »

That was an incredibly stupid statement for Leo to make. It just hands ammunition to the hard Brexiteers.
Leo should just leave the talking to Coveney.

i used to think that but fcuk them, they paint his/us as the baddie anyway might as give them a few home truths while he's at it.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1180045119728345088


I agree with the poster above though that LV should not be making statements like that on UK voter preferences....we would not like it the other way round.

SeaBreezes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar getting pilloried on TalkRadio atm for saying polls show UK might want to remain.

He seems to have a knack of getting up the nose of ERG voter types.

With Juncker and Tusk on the way out they have to hone in on someone I guess.

Made me smile when he said it. He's calling it as it is. People may not like the truth. It's still the truth. Rarely represented in UK media.

Also gave me a little faith in the UK electorate. There isn't a single scenario where the UK is better off outside the EU. Not one based on fact. I was wondering why people in the UK couldn't see this as well?

VinLieger

Roger_007 wrote: »

That was an incredibly stupid statement for Leo to make. It just hands ammunition to the hard Brexiteers.
Leo should just leave the talking to Coveney.

Do you honestly think he said it off the cuff not knowing how they would take it?


They are going to complain about something and target someone no matter what happens, its far better to know what it will be and who it will be against.


I also think he's specifically trying to talk to people in NI with comments like this.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar getting pilloried on TalkRadio atm for saying polls show UK might want to remain.

He seems to have a knack of getting up the nose of ERG voter types.

With Juncker and Tusk on the way out they have to hone in on someone I guess.

The Brexit mob are an angry and vocal minority in the UK. The reason they and their millionaire media backers are so angry and vocal is they know full well they are a minority and are attempting to bully everyone else into silence.