Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

liamtech

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The key to the next GE is Brexit and The Brexit Party. People are firmly entrenched and now see Brexit as a matter of honour, especially Leave voters. It's a point of principle that cannot be ceded no matter what the realities. So, Leave voters will vote for parties that will deliver Brexit and other issues will be relatively unimportant. The Brexit Party is at about 12% currently. They are a single issue party whose sole raison d'etre is to leave the EU immediately - so staunch Leavers will flock to them.

If Johnson can steal their clothes, then he has a very good chance of a large overall majority. Ditto if he can persuade them to be tactical when putting up candidates or if he strikes a coalition deal with them. Other than that, he's in serious trouble if they field candidates in all constituencies.

Agreed, but is it not also possible that Farage will, without prompting, concentrate campaigning in Labor, Lib Dem, Weak/Soft Tory, and perhaps 50/50 seats? I disagree entirely with his policies but i could see him being intelligent and shrewd enough to

• Put a candidate in many if not all seats - thereby fulfilling his promise to fight the general election country wide
• but concentrate campaigning tactically to hurt Remain and Soft Brexit

i would love nothing better for the Right-wing/Hard-Leaver vote to be split down the middle - but he seems smarter than that

As for Remain/Soft Gains - its frightening - the three areas i mentioned are in my view - from Likely to Unlikely

• SNP soar in Scotland - Highly Likely
• DUP Inury or serious swing away from - possible albeit unlikely, depending on Alliance/UUP co-operation on winning where they can against the DUP
• Swinson-Corbyn Co-operation - given whats happening in the polls i think that sadly, this is the least likely, nearly impossible -

I am genuinely starting to believe that the Lib Dems, seeing this as there chance to break through and maybe even take the oppositions place, will put that goal ahead of avoiding brexit

Obviously we will know more when/If a GE is announced, and as polling accelerates

A Dub in Glasgo

GM228 wrote: »

Inner House has confirmed it will sit all day on Tuesday to hear the legal competency and merits of the Nobile Officium petition, will also hear any appeal of the Outer House case.

I'm surprised the hearing does not seem to have attracted any mainstream media attention.

I'm not - the UK media thinks that the Scottish legal system is the mickey mouse system compared to the English legal system. Heck even the Supreme Court decision the other week was hailed as the Gina Milller case totally ignoring the fact the the SC sided with the Scottish Inner court decision for the Cherry case

ArmaniJeanss

liamtech wrote: »

Agreed, but is it not also possible that Farage will, without prompting, concentrate campaigning in Labor, Lib Dem, Weak/Soft Tory, and perhaps 50/50 seats? I disagree entirely with his policies but i could see him being intelligent and shrewd enough to

• Put a candidate in many if not all seats - thereby fulfilling his promise to fight the general election country wide
• but concentrate campaigning tactically to hurt Remain and Soft Brexit

It's really difficult for them to run such a spoiler campaign.
The ultimate flaw is that everything (polling, logic, ukip history) indicates that Brexit Party candidates will take more votes from the Tories than they will take from Labour no matter what the make-up of the constituency. So a strong showing would reduce Labours vote but increase their chances of winning seats.

Leroy42

It is extraordinary that the PM is being taken to court because people simply want him to abide by a law passed in the HoC.

That he has know said to the court, that we will send a letter seeking an extension, but wouldn't say that in the HoC is, again, extraordinary.

BonnieSituation

GM228 wrote: »

Inner House has confirmed it will sit all day on Tuesday to hear the legal competency and merits of the Nobile Officium petition, will also hear any appeal of the Outer House case.

I'm surprised the hearing does not seem to have attracted any mainstream media attention.

Because Scotland

GM228

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is extraordinary that the PM is being taken to court because people simply want him to abide by a law passed in the HoC.

That he has know said to the court, that we will send a letter seeking an extension, but wouldn't say that in the HoC is, again, extraordinary.

Without a sworn affidavit what is written in the Government submission is essentially meaningless, a point already raised with the Court.

In other words despite what is being floated in the news Johnson has not really told the court he will send the letter, but, without an affidavit inferences can be made...

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1180077290786623488?s=19

Nevertheless the submission is significant, and a climbdown on the 31st no matter what stance.

liamtech

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit-countdown/2019/1004/1081097-brexit-reaction/

Probably already mentioned after last nights magnificent Display on QT, but RTE now have it up

maebee

Leo is live on Sky news now, from Copenhagen. Interesting to see if he sticks to his tone from yesterday or changes it.

PropJoe10

Put the boot into Arlene there anyway, good man Leo!

maebee

Danish PM - "I don't think Ireland should be put under pressure and we stand by Ireland"

Winters

maebee wrote: »

Leo is live on Sky news now, from Copenhagen. Interesting to see if he sticks to his tone from yesterday or changes it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg_YUu2JzEA

Link to live presser if anyone is interested.

FrancieBrady

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Put the boot into Arlene there anyway, good man Leo!

Don't keep us in suspenders...what did he say?

Hurrache

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/remarks-at-the-german-embassy-by-the-chancellor-of-the-duchy-of-lancaster-3-october-2019


Neumann is misleading here looking for retweets

Yes, I clarified that last night too based on what Gove himself said. Regardless, his speech wasn't all applause and back slapping.

PropJoe10

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Don't keep us in suspenders...what did he say?

Ah, it was just about the fact that May's agreement had the support of all parties in the North other than the DUP and how the rights of people on the street need to be respected and represented, rather than just the views of the DUP who are the only party supporting Boris's new ideas.

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is extraordinary that the PM is being taken to court because people simply want him to abide by a law passed in the HoC.

That he has know said to the court, that we will send a letter seeking an extension, but wouldn't say that in the HoC is, again, extraordinary.

Rumours that he is leaning on Hungary, but as they received a net €5 billion in EU funding last year, that should prevent them from breaking ranks.

Hurrache

So in the court case in Scotland today it came out that the government WILL ask for an extension by October the 19th.

Steve Baker subsequently tweeted this.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1180096095587885056

Meanwhile yesterday there was a whole cloaks and daggers thing about representatives from the Hungarian government being at the HoC at the same time as the cabinet meeting. Some were saying that Johnson was asking Orbán to veto their upcoming request for an extension. I put this all down to tin foil hats but now nothing will surprise me.

However I don't think Hungary, despite their public statements, will do this and piss off the EU if the rest of the EU wanted to agree to the extension.

Barclay tweeted this then. So why would they want to be discussing their 'solution' to the Irish border with Hungary?
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1179791926494715904

Kermit.de.frog

Hungary is a country on a very precarious situation with the rest of the EU.

I'd be watching either Poland or Hungary as potential antagonists here.

However, they would torch what is left of their relationship with the rest of Europe if they used a veto.

It would be a very silly thing to do from their perspective.

Winters

Hurrache wrote: »

Barclay tweeted this then. So why would they want to be discussing their 'solution' to the Irish border with Hungary?
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1179791926494715904

Hungary's experience in borders perhaps?

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

So in the court case in Scotland today it came out that the government WILL ask for an extension by October the 19th.

Steve Baker subsequently tweeted this.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1180096095587885056

Meanwhile yesterday there was a whole cloaks and daggers thing about representatives from the Hungarian government being at the HoC at the same time as the cabinet meeting. Some were saying that Johnson was asking Orbán to veto their upcoming request for an extension. I put this all down to tin foil hats but now nothing will surprise me.

However I don't think Hungary, despite their public statements, will do this and piss off the EU if the rest of the EU wanted to agree to the extension.

Barclay tweeted this then. So why would they want to be discussing their 'solution' to the Irish border with Hungary?
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1179791926494715904

Barclay is just adhering to the Cummings playbook.

Hurrache

Winters wrote: »

Hungary's experience in borders perhaps?

Not a hope they were there just to discuss how borders work.

ancapailldorcha

According to papers that a Scottish court has received, Johnson will be complying with the Benn act:

Boris Johnson will send a letter to the EU asking for a Brexit delay if no deal is agreed by 19 October, according to government papers submitted to a Scottish court.

The document was revealed as campaigners sought a ruling forcing the PM to comply with the Benn Act.

Their QC said the submission contradicted statements by the prime minister last week in Parliament.

Lawyers for the UK government will outline their case later on Friday.

Downing Street refused to comment on the ongoing legal case but stressed again that the UK would be leaving the EU on 31 October.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49936352

Johnson's obvious and transparent posturing for his base is revealed for what it is.

VinLieger

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

According to papers that a Scottish court has received, Johnson will be complying with the Benn act:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49936352

Johnson's obvious and transparent posturing for his base is revealed for what it is.

This is where questions need to be asked of Hungary's foreign minister meeting with him and the cabinet yesterday. Is he looking for Hungary to deny the extension?

First Up

I wouldn't be surprised if several countries (France most notably) tell them to stop dithering and just jump like they've been promising.

Nobody in the EU is begging them to stay

Rjd2

liamtech wrote: »

Agreed, but is it not also possible that Farage will, without prompting, concentrate campaigning in Labor, Lib Dem, Weak/Soft Tory, and perhaps 50/50 seats? I disagree entirely with his policies but i could see him being intelligent and shrewd enough to

• Put a candidate in many if not all seats - thereby fulfilling his promise to fight the general election country wide
• but concentrate campaigning tactically to hurt Remain and Soft Brexit

i would love nothing better for the Right-wing/Hard-Leaver vote to be split down the middle - but he seems smarter than that

As for Remain/Soft Gains - its frightening - the three areas i mentioned are in my view - from Likely to Unlikely

• SNP soar in Scotland - Highly Likely
• DUP Inury or serious swing away from - possible albeit unlikely, depending on Alliance/UUP co-operation on winning where they can against the DUP
• Swinson-Corbyn Co-operation - given whats happening in the polls i think that sadly, this is the least likely, nearly impossible -

I am genuinely starting to believe that the Lib Dems, seeing this as there chance to break through and maybe even take the oppositions place, will put that goal ahead of avoiding brexit

Obviously we will know more when/If a GE is announced, and as polling accelerates

Top 2 Parties will be Labour and Tories next time round.

In 2016 Tories got 317 seats, Labour 262 and Lib Dems 12.

Swinson is more formidable than Farron but brave call to think they will get close to the big two.

I don't even think the Lib Dems will hurt Labour that much, reading a Guardian article the other week their was only 2 Labour seats they would fancy winning. However when it comes to the tories its currently 20.

Ladbrokes have the tories in for under/over 306.5....labour under/over 227.5 and the Lib Dems under/over 39.5 currently.

Lib Dems will do well next time round, but like Brexit Party might struggle to translate the poll numbers into seats.

Also easy to forget Swinson is not a cert to hold her seat either, she has lost it before and the SNP will be targeting it hard.

An Claidheamh

Take back control #550....

Britain relying on Hungary to stop Britain from staying in EU as British parliament has decided and as British government to afraid to leave.

FFS

Is there a term for this, Banana Monarchy*


*bendy bananas of course

Panrich

The plan to comply with the Benn act AND to still exit on 31st October has been well finalised before yesterdays meeting with the Hungarians. There is a smugness to the way that cabinet ministers say that they will comply with the law and leave on the 31st, that leads me to believe that they have a trick up their sleeve that nobody else has considered yet.

briany

Panrich wrote: »

The plan to comply with the Benn act AND to still exit on 31st October has been well finalised before yesterdays meeting with the Hungarians. There is a smugness to the way that cabinet ministers say that they will comply with the law and leave on the 31st, that leads me to believe that they have a trick up their sleeve that nobody else has considered yet.

If they were trying to get the Hungarians to veto, they probably could have attempted this arrangement over Skype or something. Not have strange cars sitting outside Downing Street where some enterprising photographer would get a snap of them.

BobbyBobberson

Hungary will not be vetoing any UK EU membership. Would be a waste of political capital as pointed out here.


https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1169528264513265665?s=20

Panrich

briany wrote: »

If they were trying to get the Hungarians to veto, they probably could have attempted this arrangement over Skype or something. Not have strange cars sitting outside Downing Street where some enterprising photographer would get a snap of them.

Exactly. That's why I said that visit has nothing to do with the plan to circumvent the Benn act while still complying with it. Steve Baker (who I won't give a link to) has just repeated the same spiel on twitter about complying with the Benn act but still leaving.

funkey_monkey

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hungary will not be vetoing any UK EU membership. Would be a waste of political capital as pointed out here.


https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1169528264513265665?s=20

Unless the wad of cash that was allegedly offered to Leo is diverted to Hungary (or Hungarian individuals).