Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

wayoutwest

Getting pretty gusty in the last half hour, with fast moving low dark clouds begining to blot out the blue sky. No rain yet. South Sligo.
Looking east20191003_104353.jpg

Gaoth Laidir

AMSR2 windfield at 03:37Z

NotToScale

Is it still matching the track that’s been predicted by the models? Just wondering how it’s comparing to the last runs?

stevenup7002

pad199207 wrote: »

Odd shapes and sizes

Ah yes, a classic cumuloplatypus formation. Always a delight to see.

Danno

First Gale Force Gust recorded in South Laois (39mph) just before 11.30am. Unfortunately my anemometer has been stuck on North for much of the last 72hrs, only giving brief correct directions. Windspeeds are being correctly reported though. This is disappointing considering the module was replaced only a few months ago.

amandstu

NotToScale wrote: »

Is it still matching the track that’s been predicted by the models? Just wondering how it’s comparing to the last runs?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/10/03/1500Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-25.25,55.15,3000/loc=-7.828,55.327

Look less windy to me just from that

Graces7

Sudden intensifying out here. west mayo offshore. Louder and the gale is shrieking more

Oscar Bravo

StormLorenzo has passed buoy M6, approximately 400 km off the west coast of Ireland, with mean wind speeds of 67km/h gusting 102 km/h

igCorcaigh

Mental Mickey wrote: »

What does this mean

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1179711320624652288?s=19

mickger844posts

Moderate rain in Waterford City with 6.1mm recorded so far at my station.

Max Gust of 58km/h which is higher than i was expecting at this time.

Temp is steady at 12.9c Pressure is at 1007hPa falling slowly.

Youtube stream here https://www.youtube.com/c/WaterfordMeteo/live

Mental Mickey

Is it going to take the same path as previously mentioned? I.e: up the west coast and then across the country?

redsteveireland

Mortelaro wrote: »

If its barely capable of 100kmh gusts at sea,then it's a dying storm already

If I'm not mistaken that is just the reading from the M6 buoy, not the entire system.

Villain

The Met Eireann commentary has been updated https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary.

Storm Lorenzo was located around 180 nautical miles (340 km) west of Belmullet, Co Mayo at Midday today Thursday 3rd October 2019. The analysed pressure at 9z (1000 local) today was 969hPa at the M6 Buoy which is located approximately 400 km west of Mace Head in Galway as the centre of the storm passed over, with storm force west to southwest gusts recorded on the southern side of the low pressure centre.

Our model guidance is calling for some slight deepening of the Lorenzo low to take place this afternoon as the system tracks north-eastwards to the west of Ireland, reaching a low of possibly 962hPa at 14z (1500 local). Because of this, south-easterly winds will be strong and gusty over much of the country this afternoon, with a countrywide yellow wind warning in operation until 6pm today.

The storm depression is forecasted to then turn east south-eastwards this evening towards the west coast of County Mayo (around 18z/1900local). This turn is due to upper air steering flows high up in the atmosphere. By this time, the depression will be starting to fill. What this means is that the storm force winds on the southern side of the low will begin to slowly subside. At 6pm, the orange level wind warning for western coastal counties of Galway, Mayo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick will come into operation, and the yellow wind warning will become confined to Cork, Waterford, Tipperary and Wexford.

Lorenzo is expected to make landfall between Erris Head and Killala Bay in County Mayo around midnight or soon after. Strong winds and large waves will affect western and southern coasts this evening and tonight with the potential for coastal flooding and damage. Lorenzo is expected to fill quite rapidly as it tracks south-eastwards over the country overnight. Winds in the centre and to the north of the low will be generally light to moderate variable. There will, however, be pulses of heavier rain in the centre and to the north of the low, with a yellow rainfall warning in operation to account for this.

Below is some recent track guidance for the centre of Lorenzo from our HARMONIE Irish Regional Ensemble Prediction suite from midnight 3rd Oct to midday on 4th October.

Interesting part in Bold and they have increased Orange Warning back up to 130kmh and also extended to 6am.

DOCARCH

Wind has ramped up in my part of Dublin in the last hour. Very gusty.

Casement reporting 8kts, Dublin AP reporting 14kts, whereas DL Harbour reporting 23kts gusting 38kts.

KingdomRushed

Graces7 wrote: »

Villain wrote: »

The Met Eireann commentary has been updated https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary.

That image is... scary! My home is under that!

I have tried to attach a Sat 24 screenshot of Lorenzo from 2pm. It would appear to be following along the most northerly of the tracks progged by the met models

KingdomRushed

Pic attached. 2pm Lorenzo

SleetAndSnow

All eyes on when its gonna make that turn eastwards

Kamili

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I have tried to attach a Sat 24 screenshot of Lorenzo from 2pm. It would appear to be following along the most northerly of the tracks progged by the met models

I was wondering this, been tracking it on ventusky and it seems to be a little off the predicted course, thought I was going crazy as I am not very adept at these things.

KingdomRushed

Kamili wrote: »

I was wondering this, been tracking it on ventusky and it seems to be a little off the predicted course, thought I was going crazy as I am not very adept at these things.

Ventusky is showing its forecast position based upon models output. Sat24 is where it actually is. To my mind it’s north of where most forecasts put it

KingdomRushed

Sat24 imagery also appears to show it becoming more organized in last 2 hours, sort of tying in with Met Eireann update

pauldry

Looking at sat24 the storms journey North seems to have stopped and it will now start coming across towards Killala Bay.

Lorenzo gusts will pick up from about 4pm. A the moment we just have the outer wind and rain bands

Blackhorse Slim

That has to be a mistake on the Met Eireann national wind warning? Should be valid until 06:00 Friday, same as the other warnings, not 18:00 Thursday (today)

Gaoth Laidir

Very strong Föhn effect to the NW of the Wicklow mountains. Very visible as a stationary clear area in the satellite animation. It's making Casement 3 degrees warmer than Dublin Airport and Dunsany and 2 degrees warmer than the Pheonix Park.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual5

HorrorScope

Blackhorse Slim wrote: »

That has to be a mistake on the Met Eireann national wind warning? Should be valid until 06:00 Friday, same as the other warnings, not 18:00 Thursday (today)

Yellow Wind warning for nationwide ends at 6pm, it is followed by a Yellow rainfall warning for certain areas only with a continuing yellow wind warning only for Wexford, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford. The Orange warning kicks in from 6pm and is also confined to counties in or around the expected path of the storm once it makes the south east turn after landfall.

DOCARCH

Definitely looking a little more organised than earlier and northward movement has pretty much stopped.



Recent gust of 50.0kts at DunLaoghaire Harbour....not be sneezed at!

NotToScale

It was somewhat blustery in Cork City earlier on but it's pretty much a normal calm mucky autumn day here now. Not much sign of any storm activity.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Blackhorse Slim wrote: »

That has to be a mistake on the Met Eireann national wind warning? Should be valid until 06:00 Friday, same as the other warnings, not 18:00 Thursday (today)

Agreed it is badly phrased

Hooter23

I think this storm will be mostly a coastal event with the swell and large waves...

squarecircles

conditions in West Mayo half hour ago.

MichealD

http://wexfordharbour.info/Weather/index.html


32 knt gust in Wexford Harbour, about 60kph. Heavy rain for last few hours.