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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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    #1142
    haminka
    Registered Users Posts: 562 ✭✭✭haminka


    squarecircles wrote: »
    conditions in West Mayo half hour ago.



    OK, that's windy. Wind picking up in Meath slightly too.


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    #1143
    irishgeo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,438 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    8.7m wave reported reported at m6, m4 probably more in the line now but that seems to only report wave measurements every 3 hpurs sadly.


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    #1144
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,343 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Looking like it's still way out to the west.

    https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/satellites/europe-visible#

    Is it going to make its turn eastward?


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    #1145
    CJhaughey
    Registered Users Posts: 14,907 ✭✭✭✭CJhaughey


    irishgeo wrote: »
    8.7m wave reported reported at m6, m4 probably more in the line now but that seems to only report wave measurements every 3 hpurs sadly.
    Max wave height recorded was 12.5m @1300 today.
    http://webapps.marine.ie/IWPGraphs/Default.aspx?Type=1&ProjectId=2&InstSite=M6&Inst=Hmax


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    #1146
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,004 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looking at forecast track of the system i expect some surprises could yet be in store tonight from this. Id imagine some power outages after dark. Its nowhere near us yet.


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    #1147
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,899 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Deirdre Lowe from ME on radio now saying they do not expect landfall until around 5am or 6am tomorrow morning, somewhere between north Mayo/Donegal.


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    #1148
    Fitzo123
    Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭Fitzo123


    pauldry wrote: »
    Looking at forecast track of the system i expect some surprises could yet be in store tonight from this. Id imagine some power outages after dark. Its nowhere near us yet.

    Met Eireann just said on RTÉ that Sligo and Leitrim will probably be in Orange warnings. Clearly tracking a bit northerly than expected.


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    #1149
    Kamili
    Registered Users Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Deirdre Lowe from ME on radio now saying they do not expect landfall until around 5am or 6am tomorrow morning.

    Looking at the GFS on Ventusky this seems to tie in, and it is making landfall further north and then appears to just die out by 10am.


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    #1150
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,031 ✭✭✭squarecircles




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    #1151
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,899 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Recent gust of 52kts at DunLaoghaire Harbour.


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    #1152
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,682 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Normal enough day in cork city. Was windy this morning and then really heavy rain (drizzling now) but calmed down. I’d say from tonight onwards is when the country will start to really feel the winds.


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    #1153
    JFKIRELAND
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭JFKIRELAND


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Recent gust of 52kts at DunLaoghaire Harbour.

    Docarch,
    Not so sure on DL Harbour readings.
    The Dublin Bay Bouy is showing a difference in the gusts registered. I think the bouy is positionally better for picking up wind information - less structural interference. Highest gust so far is 47 knots (F9) and the Avg wind has been in the F7 category.
    https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy
    JK


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    #1154
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Fitzo123 wrote: »
    Met Eireann just said on RTÉ that Sligo and Leitrim will probably be in Orange warnings. Clearly tracking a bit northerly than expected.

    That would be inline with what the the 6z models showed that I mentioned on my live twitter update at lunch and makes sense.


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    #1155
    odyboody
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭odyboody


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    For the uninitiated why does it not keep heading north. What causes it to veer right.

    At a very basic level it bumps into the jet stream which pushes along in this case to the right of its current path


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    #1156
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,481 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    For the uninitiated why does it not keep heading north. What causes it to veer right.

    I think it is the jet stream that steers depressions. If anyone else might be better able to answer this question. It is probably like maneuvering a large truck around a sharp corner.


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    #1157
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,899 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    JFKIRELAND wrote: »
    Docarch,
    Not so sure on DL Harbour readings.
    The Dublin Bay Bouy is showing a difference in the gusts registered. I think the bouy is positionally better for picking up wind information - less structural interference. Highest gust so far is 47 knots (F9) and the Avg wind has been in the F7 category.
    https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy
    JK

    The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

    Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

    Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.


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    #1158
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,004 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Re Met Eireann

    The Met Office in the UK always had touchdown in West Donegal and Met Eireann North Mayo

    To me the Met Office always looked more correct but we willsee if the hosepipe hits a duck in Mayo or Donegal and remember Sligo is the mediator


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    #1159
    Discodog
    Registered Users Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    My watch shows the pressure bottoming out at 994 - 14.45 in Galway. Is Sat 24 the best way to see the latest position ?


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    #1160
    JFKIRELAND
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭JFKIRELAND


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

    Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

    Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

    Sorry Docarch my point is more that there could be structural interference in the DL readings. In a SE wind,the Carlisle Pier, the RSTGYC, the NYC and the East Pier are in line, whereas the DBB is more open to the true wind.
    Could be the differnce between a storm & strong gale :cool:


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    #1161
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Latest GFS run shows wider range for high gusts along the coast tonight. Everywhere else is BAU and unchanged.


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    #1162
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,899 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    JFKIRELAND wrote: »
    Sorry Docarch my point is more that there could be structural interference in the DL readings. In a SE wind,the Carlisle Pier, the RSTGYC, the NYC and the East Pier are in line, whereas the DBB is more open to the true wind.

    Fair point!

    By the way a lot calmer than earlier now in Dublin 16. Was quite stormy earlier. Just a light breeze now.


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    #1163
    sideswipe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Great both threads full of 'banter'.

    Plenty more moisture to come over the weekend looking at whats coming in off the atlantic.

    EF89YczXoAILsv_?format=jpg&name=small


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    #1164
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    No5KUoQ.jpg


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    #1165
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Raining lightly all day in the Arklow area but very light
    Warmer sir is moving in
    Temp is up 4c since earlier in the afternoon despite the wind and rain
    Wind is veering SW as opposed to SE ,so off land not sea which could explain some of this also
    Currently 1001.3mb falling steadily


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    #1166
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    Roonagh pier co mayo 03/10/19
    Qr2KYpY.jpg


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    #1167
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

    Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

    Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

    It was very rough down at Poolbeg, I'll have a video up in a while.


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    #1168
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,682 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Is it slowly starting to turn or is it just spreading out on Sat 24 in the 17:25 update?


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    #1169
    irishgeo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,438 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    Looks like a band of rain moving in to Galway soon enough based in the latest sat24 image.


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    #1170
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    The Great South Wall and Poolbeg Lighthouse at high tide this afternoon.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCostelloDC/status/1179797603019628547


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    #1171
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,004 ✭✭✭pauldry


    50knots still seems the highest gust so far

    Belmullet hit 49knots just now

    A tame affair so far. Wel see what night brings


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