Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

Oscar Bravo

A sudden pick up in winds here in Castlebar.

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done regarding model performance regarding 'Lorenzo' this last week. They all have, in some form or other, been pretty decent in handling all of the possible outcomes. But my hat has to go off to the UKMO global model as it never really bought into the GFS/ICON's more westerly track, and pretty much dissed the ECMWF trend for a couple of days which had its track way off to the south. I think the UKMO did show this scenario for a couple of runs alight, but it did back off from this quicker than the ECMWF if I remember correctly.

How is your hat still on considering your roof is gone 🤔?

Oscar Bravo

9pm

Mace Head gusting 50 knots
Belmullet gusting 41 knots

pauldry

Mace has now joint top gust....with itself.

If I remember correctly the top gust in September was 50knots in a not storm

This is the most hyped weather event ever.

The next storm may be verybad but the media will ignore it because we were spared Lorenzo

Met Office still has lively winds at midnight so we will see.

downwesht

Ophelia gusted to 191kph!
This is only a normal breeze of wind!
Over hyped for a reason because of the emergence of stormchasers/photographers.........RtE and Tv3 have people all over the country crying out for an event to happen so they can justify themselves.

Storm 10

Highest gust of wind recorded so far on my station in Galway is 48mph

froog

lovely evening in cork.

greenpilot

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Lorenzo appears to be undergoing some east-west elongation as first stage of the right turn, apparently located just to the north of the K4 buoy which is 120 miles northwest of Belmullet.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62105

Would expect landfall of reduced cyclone around Sligo at about 0300h. Heavy rain may become the main concern now, the weakening trend will likely offset the track change to keep winds fairly constant at current levels, although they may tick up slightly for Newport and Mace Head.

No reporting stations between Finner and Malin Head (on the met.ie list) but would expect winds in that stretch of Donegal to back around from southeast to east as the centre of Lorenzo adjusts course, staying in the 40-60 km/hr range mostly.

Interesting event from our point of view but probably will be seen as underperforming by many. I had a p.m. making a good point about steady moderate winds and saturated soils combining to place stress on fully-foliated trees in these conditions so might expect more tree problems than the wind speeds alone would suggest. This might be particularly true in Connacht and west Ulster.

I agree. Here in West Mayo, I would not be downplaying this at all. Trees are fully laden with leaves and on the drive back in, the roads are littered with Glass-Shattering-sized chunks of wood.
I'm a horticulturlist and trust me, winds of this intensity and duration this early in Autumn as forecasted will absolutely result in fallen trees. It does not take much LB/Ft pressure from a good gust of wind to shift a fully laden Beech in saturated ground.
For anyone driving home this evening after 6, change your route to avoid any roads with long stretches of over-hanging Beech, Oak, Sycamore etc. Plus, expect fallen Trees and Large branches around any corner.

kilkenny31

Guys I'm confused. Everyone is joking about how weak the storm is. But is it not due to hit full strength after midnight?
I do think RTÉs performance in particular is ridiculous but I still think there's plenty to come from this storm.
The only thing that annoys me is its a relatively standard bad winter storm for the west coast but to justify the nonsense RTÉ will focus on any small bit of damage done tomorrow and hype it up. They are in to deep now. No going back. Storm Special, the prime time guy deployed.

kerryjack

fair play guys ye called it fairly well all week I pitty any old people living alone and listening to rte the life would be frightened out of them.

Kristopherus

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A sudden pick up in winds here in Castlebar.

And a good dash of rain with it !!!

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

How is your hat still on considering your roof is gone 🤔?

It's a complicated story. Where to begin...

CeeCeeBloom

Dublin this evening.

Not a huge breeze here by any stretch.

Bobeagleburger

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Guys I'm confused. Everyone is joking about how weak the storm is. But is it not due to hit full strength after midnight?
I do think RT performance in particular is ridiculous but I still think there's plenty to come from this storm.
The only thing that annoys me is its a relatively standard bad winter storm for the west coast but to justify the nonsense RTwill focus on any small bit of damage done tomorrow and hype it up. They are in to deep now. No going back. Storm Special, the prime time guy deployed.

between 1 and 3am in Galway anyway suppossed to be the strongest. But pretty strong speeds until 7/8am.

squonk

Wind finally picking up here appreciably in Ennis in the last few minutes. We had heavy ra8n earlier but that’s fine through now. Seems the wind comes in waves. It’s gibe quieter just now.

Oscar Bravo

10pm

Mace head gusting 51 knots
Belmullet gusting 45 knots

Danno

tom1ie wrote: »

Are/when are we expecting the worst winds to hit the Dublin area?

Probably the next storm TBH. Dublin most likely not see anything more than a standard wet and windy autumn night.

redbuck

Starting to get gusty here in Killala now.

Andrew00

Extreme gusts of wind now in Galway.

Danno

Lorenzo has split in to two lows by the looks of the latest satellite imagery.

Danno

uck51js9zml2yt

Wind has picked up in North Kerry tonight.
Gotten cold as well.

BlackandGreen

Question: Has there ever been a category 5 hurricane that made its way up here before? (i know its no longer a category 5)

John mac

BlackandGreen wrote: »

Question: Has there ever been a category 5 hurricane that made its way up here before? (i know its no longer a category 5)

No

Oscar Bravo

11pm

Mace Head gusting 52 knots
Belmullet Gusting 51 knots
Shannon Airport gusting 42 knots

All other stations fairly quite.

M.T. Cranium

Didn't extratropical Wilma (2005) have some minor effect on the weather in Ireland? It was at one point a cat-5 hurricane. I remember how it was progged to hit as quite a strong storm by the GFS six days in advance then that got downgraded. But I think some part of it still hit Ireland eventually.

Most cat-5 that I can recall went inland somewhere in North America. Dorian had some indirect aftereffects on weather systems that reached Ireland, not really a good example though.

Daffodil.d

Slight breeze so far this evening in Waterford. Lots of rain earlier. Nothing out of the ordinary. Generally we escape the drama. I want to ask a question though. How often 'in laymans terms' does a hurricane head up in our direction. What are the stats? We're more in tune to the technical analysis now but are these events becoming more commonplace?

Gonzo

very quiet day here in Meath today apart from breezy conditions this morning, mostly light rain on and off through the day, a few heavier bursts earlier in the evening.

wassie

BlackandGreen wrote: »

Question: Has there ever been a category 5 hurricane that made its way up here before? (i know its no longer a category 5)

No - due to physics. A hurricane is another name for a tropical cyclone. As the name suggests, these storms form only in the tropical latitudes and dissipates when they move over waters significantly below 26.5 °C. The colder waters mean less energy for the storm system, causing it to to lose its tropical characteristics. That being said, it still can pack a punch!

Gaoth Laidir

Just 7 hours to go to RTE's Lorenzo Special...

George, here's the SMAP surface wind chart for around 19.30 this evening. The brown shows 50+ knot winds, not quite high enough to be called "fierce", but maybe there is time for it to change.