Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

kilkenny31

Does everyone feel that the NHC predicted track is the most reliable. They were bang on with ophelia. They are showing Ireland take a direct hit. I think this storm will hit us. The only question will be is at what force.

lcasey90

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Does everyone feel that the NHC predicted track is the most reliable. They were bang on with ophelia.

I'm inclined to follow NHC as this is their field of expertise. Hopefully by tomorrow/ Tuesday morning we will have a more solid answer to what is going to affect us if it even does affect us at all

lcasey90

Can anyone give me examples of how Ophelia and Lorenzo differ from each other. How far out did we know Ophelia was going to impact us and what strength was it while they knew it was on track to hit us

SleetAndSnow

NHC gone slightly more west I think in advisory 29. Gonna be a lot of chopping and changing i think

sjb25

Better bring the trampoline in so

CirrusBusiness

NHC's update has the track more to the west. Most of Ireland still in the hazard cone. Will be interesting to see if their projected track shifts further west in the coming few days. Who knows what is going to happen between now and then. Lorenzo is a beast of a storm and anything can happen as we saw with Ophelia.

aisling86

Cork Ciy out of the cone.... definitely gone further west

Discodog

Where would you normally expect to find peak winds in relation to the centre ?

JanuarySnowstor

12z Icon brings it much closer to Ireland. Still a miss West but much closer to our shore.
Let's see what gfs makes of it all.

Re the nhc cone they are only modifying because of earlier 06z placements. The models rule guys not the nhc and met Eireann. They're playing catch up on previous runs

SleetAndSnow

Fact that icon has brought it closer when it’s becoming more in range shows how flip flop this is. I’m assuming it’s all going to be down to that area of low pressure in the north west really. That could change on the day.

refusetolose

aisling86 wrote: »

Cork Ciy out of the cone.... definitely gone further west

Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone

Little snowy old me

Thankfully Lorenzo look like missing us. I'm glad because I couldn't handle the nonsense and hype in the media and listening to people talking about hurricanes etc.

lcasey90

I like the excitement of the thoughts we could get the tail end of the hurricane. It's not often we get to track and learn about hurricanes like this one, they're usually the other side of Atlantic

ncmc

What day/days would Ireland most likely be hit if we are in the trajectory. We’re leaving the country on Wednesday for a few days and just wondering if we should secure things in the garden just in case.

pauldry

Theres about a 1 in 10 chance we get hit by this but Iceland getting a tailend of a hurricane is also strange

km79

ncmc wrote: »

What day/days would Ireland most likely be hit if we are in the trajectory. We’re leaving the country on Wednesday for a few days and just wondering if we should secure things in the garden just in case.

Yes
What harm can it do

TheRiverman

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Thankfully Lorenzo look like missing us. I'm glad because I couldn't handle the nonsense and hype in the media and listening to people talking about hurricanes etc.

Joanna Donnelly won't get her Status Red fix.

YanSno

Hurricane Lorenzo peaked in the early hours of this morning with an exceptional eye structure, eye temperatures of +16 and cloud tops in the mid -70s, leading to designation of 155mph for the storm. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to Category 5 status at the time, although satellite and recon evidence questions that status.
Since then, Lorenzo has weakened somewhat, and has become less organised around its eyewall which appears to be breaking up.
Lorenzo is expected to continue weakening before affecting the Azores, but could still deliver 110mph winds this week.

sdanseo

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

NHC's update has the track more to the west. Most of Ireland still in the hazard cone. Will be interesting to see if their projected track shifts further west in the coming few days. Who knows what is going to happen between now and then. Lorenzo is a beast of a storm and anything can happen as we saw with Ophelia.

This is really important: the cone is not an indication of the area of hazardous conditions. It is an indication of where the centre of the storm will end up in 66% of cases based over a 5 year margin of error across all NHC forecasts.

The cone makes no reference to the size of the storm and NHC are very clear on all graphics that hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
Equally, parts inside the cone at T+120 could be calm and normal 120hrs later.

Graces7

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

NHC's update has the track more to the west. Most of Ireland still in the hazard cone. Will be interesting to see if their projected track shifts further west in the coming few days. Who knows what is going to happen between now and then. Lorenzo is a beast of a storm and anything can happen as we saw with Ophelia.

We missed Ophelia; she turned east before us. Mayo I mean. People in Sligo were very disappointed. We did get a bad hit from Callum.. a really bad hit . No one here believed that as it was a west coast event. Now they are saying Lorenzo is a westerly? ah well...

Graces7

lcasey90 wrote: »

I like the excitement of the thoughts we could get the tail end of the hurricane. It's not often we get to track and learn about hurricanes like this one, they're usually the other side of Atlantic

Best place for them...you can track etc from a safe distance.. maybe look at the films etc from Dorian one in the Bahamas before seeking direct experience Trust me on that..

JanuarySnowstor

Well the gfs has not backed down staying well to the West
The ukmo hasn't either though and brings Lorenzo towards Ireland on a more direct but weaker hit.

pauldry

Looking at GFS the fact that it joins up with other low kills its momentum towards us but could bring temperatures of 20c instead!!

Oneiric 3

Well to our wesht on the new GFS run:

JanuarySnowstor

You could say all roads lead to failure!!
The gfs too far West and the ukmo over us but weakening to a non event.
The hype is not justified really and if the ecm is similar it's my favourite phrase
GAME OVER! (LOL)

lcasey90

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

thomasj

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/29/hurricane-lorenzo-is-too-strong-for-where-it-islets-deal-with-the-climate-change-question/

Interesting article from Forbes.

Oneiric 3

German model keeping it wesht also:



No doubt the ECMWF will show something contrary later.

Gaoth Laidir

What's noteworthy is how much the forecast has slowed down over the past 24 hours. Yesterday the NHC had it reaching us on Thursday evening. Today it's more like Friday morning. That's 12-18 hours extra over cold seas, which could be crucial.

cute geoge

lcasey90 wrote: »

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

We got a direct hit locally with storm Darwin in feb '14 and it was sure as well was scary .It did nice damage to any buildings and if it gave another hour or so it would have the majority of houses and buildings damaged

Santy2015

Ophelia only really got going late on the Friday and Saturday before the red alert on the Sunday evening. Time yet for things to change

hatrickpatrick

Important for people to bear in mind that the NHC cone only shows the possible spread of locations for the centre of the storm, so still being in the hazard cone means the core of the storm could still move over that area, the rain and TS force winds can extend well outside that.

pad199207

Another crucial run coming up from ECM.

Discodog

lcasey90 wrote: »

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

Plus these events are relatively common so our weak trees, building etc have been subjected to winds many times. The Caribbean Islands always suffer badly as the infrastructure isn't sufficient.

Discodog

pad199207 wrote: »

Another crucial run coming up from ECM.

Isn't it way too early to be relying or worrying about projected tracks/intensities ?

Gaoth Laidir

cute geoge wrote: »

We got a direct hit locally with storm Darwin in feb '14 and it was sure as well was scary .It did nice damage to any buildings and if it gave another hour or so it would have the majority of houses and buildings damaged

To be fair, comparing Darwin to Dorian in any way is just crazy. Damage potential increases with the square of the speed, so double the windspeeds and you quadruple the damage. And that's not even mentioning the worst feature...storm surge.

Kermit.de.frog

sjb25 wrote: »

Better bring the trampoline in so

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFpwgXCwMNQ

Oneiric 3

Zoomed in 'cone' based on the latest NHC advisory (29) showing probs for 50 knot winds. Really between 10% & 20% at best. Probs for > 34 knots a bit higher at around 30% to 40%

Gaoth Laidir

When all is said and done the 12Z intensity forecasts for the Azores are still more or less unchanged from the past few days' runs, CAT 1-low 2.



Current ADT estimated intensity is 105 knots.

Jpmarn

Hurricane Lorenzo has the forecasters at Met Eireann on their tippy toes as mentioned on their forecast bulletin at 7:55 AM on Radio 1.

SleetAndSnow

Interestingly the GEM has it going up the west coast then turning east over the country

Meteorite58

NHC

The forecast track confidence is
very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good
agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the
previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges
significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction
between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland
late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has
shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of
runs. However, there remains significant spread between the
operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the
British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the
larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent
shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was
only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the
consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence
beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further
adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

sdanseo

12Z ECM out as far as 96hrs and much the same. Storm accelerates a little faster on this run.

850mb winds

JanuarySnowstor

Wow ecm not backing down and brings it to the South and very close. The winner of this is still up for grabs. Fascinating to watch

ninebeanrows

96hr ECMWF very different to GFS, going for the track-right and weaken scenario but still has some intensity to it.

Such a big difference between the NCEP and EC at just 96hrs

--Regardless of which track verified, significant impacts on Ireland unlikely.

JanuarySnowstor

Looks like Noaa may have to nudge the graph back East again.

PukkaStukka

The weekly forcast during BBC Countryfile underscored the uncertainty by playing the outputs of two models. One had the storm skirting the south UK coast, and the other had it staying out in the mid Atlantic pulling in milder air behind it

pad199207

Christ was wishing the ECM was going to agree just to make things easier.

All is not set and done yet.

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

--Regardless of which track verified, significant impacts on Ireland unlikely.

Unless a track somewhere in the middle of the two extremes materialises.
The conceivable worst case for Ireland at the moment would appear to be a storm over the country with slightly below hurricane force mean winds of perhaps 55-60kts.

If it dissipates over us as the GEM indicates, eyes open to the possibility of a heavy rain rather than wind event.

Oneiric 3

ECM does not seem to want to occluded this system at all on approach to Ireland and seems to be placing the path of the storm similar to that of the Arpege.