Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

JanuarySnowstor

Icon goes West again and misses Ireland. You would think a deeper system will take this route. I dunno know the main models aren't out yet but I have to say the chances of this storm missing us are quite large tbh

Graces7

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a 50% probability of >34kt for Cork and Kerry at 5 days ??

If this thing doesn't calm down we could be in trouble (and much more importantly, I could miss my 1pm Thursday flight!)

and my groceries could be in jeopardy; due Thursday! I mean HOW DARE IT!

sdanseo

Graces7 wrote: »

and my groceries could be in jeopardy; due Thursday! I mean HOW DARE IT!

A strongly worded letter to Lorenzo is in order. Really not on

JanuarySnowstor

Ukmo weakens it considerably much like last night's run though it does move it directly over Ireland

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Cat 5 status will make little difference to it's end state as it travels northeast. It should not be a concern that it is above predictions at the moment. This is not really relevant later on.

Edit: ICON still dragging this way west of us. No impact here. Be interesting to see how the other models see it playing out.

I understand that, generally speaking, but is it not the case that the more centrifugal force it creates, the more it fights against external "steering"?

JanuarySnowstor

Gfs keeps it way out west. It has to be said we aren't seeing any runs now that show anything notable for Ireland. It's odds on now that this cane will not affect us

DOCARCH

Featuring now in the ME main/general forecast....

Hurricane Lorenzo is currently positioned in the south Atlantic and will gradually track northeastwards in the coming days. At this stage its impact on Ireland is uncertain. Met Eireann is closely monitoring the progress of Lorenzo.

Tomorrow the place will be awash with....'are we getting a day off work/school' ....questions!

Little snowy old me

Met Eireann yet again leaving themselves open to criticism. With no certainty regarding Lorenzo at this stage, and indications showing the storm will miss Ireland, they should not have mentioned it in their forecast this morning, even if it is only a vague reference about monitoring it. This will be jumped on by every rag today and businesses and schools all put under unnecessary pressure about days off etc. Have we learned nothing after Ophelia? When the country shut down and most people experienced nothing more than normal gale force winds?

Gaoth Laidir

Wow, that's some burst in energy overnight! He came home from the pub and started wrecking the place.

It looks like the clouds have warmed in the past hour so so that convection may have relaxed a bit. What it does is now is throw the cat among the pigeons again regarding the ensembles. The GFS is now strictly well west and north of Ireland, but the Canadian CMC is still split. It will be interesting to see what the ECM says.

In any case the NHC have it at the Kerry coast as 60 knots (~50-55 in €) on Friday morning. Their final intensity forecast is about the same as before, despite being higher for the first few days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Mount Vesuvius

Joe Bastardi is not convinced that Lorenzo is a Cat 5

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1178147438789615616?s=19

JanuarySnowstor

So using the big 3 we have ecm and ukmo in agreement of a direct hit but weakening quite a bit. Gfs is much further West but stronger and avoiding Ireland.

JanuarySnowstor

Hard to see the gfs being right here with both its timing and location well off the others....its also nearly a day ahead of the others at 96hrs.....I still think a meeting in between looks the likely scenario with a direct hit possible but the storm disintegrating quite a bit.

giveitholly

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Met Eireann yet again leaving themselves open to criticism. With no certainty regarding Lorenzo at this stage, and indications showing the storm will miss Ireland, they should not have mentioned it in their forecast this morning, even if it is only a vague reference about monitoring it. This will be jumped on by every rag today and businesses and schools all put under unnecessary pressure about days off etc. Have we learned nothing after Ophelia? When the country shut down and most people experienced nothing more than normal gale force winds?

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

uck51js9zml2yt

As I sit on top of a mountain facing the Atlantic I really hope this is a non event!!!

dsmythy

Seems the old conundrum a beast to the west or something less to Biscay?

The middle ground cop out. It does track over Ireland and is somewhat notable for the time of year but in the grand scheme of things it's no storm Ali.

Maybe it won't get its act together again until it's north of us and swing NW.

Scrabbel

giveitholly wrote: »

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

Absolutely right. Without all the warnings, closures and minimisation of travel that number would have been much higher. Imagine what the response on these boards would have been then. Hopefully Lorenzo doesnt hit that hard.

Little snowy old me

giveitholly wrote: »

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

A storm's intensity is not measured by death tolls. Sure a 70kmph gale gust could blow over an old weak tree on top of a minibus and kill several people. That doesn't mean we shut the country down everytime we have winds of 70kmph.

irishgeo

What's the timings for it to hit?

Oneiric 3

Latest ECMWF ensemble mean for windspeeds >50 kts at 850 hPa for next Thursday. Pretty much as you were, though there does seem to be a slight shift westwards away from Ireland.. which is not to say that this will be the case in reality.

JanuarySnowstor

A slight shift?? In that photo it's closer to Greenland lol

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A slight shift?? In that photo it's closer to Greenland lol

Compare the same chart from last evening's run that I posted last night and you'll see what I mean.

All academic anyway this far out. The best we can do at this stage is to keep an eye on the broader trend rather than bothering to pin point specifics.

JanuarySnowstor

Noaa latest advisory continues with the cone directly over Ireland. They are bullish on the track and rarely wrong

dsmythy

Little snowy old me wrote: »

A storm's intensity is not measured by death tolls. Sure a 70kmph gale gust could blow over an old weak tree on top of a minibus and kill several people. That doesn't mean we shut the country down everytime we have winds of 70kmph.

No but a country on near shut down and people still died. Probabilities based on wind speed plus other variables and all that.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132019_key_messages+png/083449_key_messages_sm.png

jimmynokia

https://twitter.com/DublinLive/status/1177850037918937088?s=19

They sourced IWA too the clowns

dsmythy

Oh god. And the disingenuousness of it equating the current warnings with the storm.

leahyl

jimmynokia wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DublinLive/status/1177850037918937088?s=19

They sourced IWA too the clowns

Lol “heads for Ireland and Dublin” - so Dublin is a separate country now too! What bull, they shouldn’t be allowed to put this stuff up

pad199207

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132019_key_messages+png/083449_key_messages_sm.png

Is that H symbol getting closer?

Jim Gazebo

giveitholly wrote: »

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

Down in cork, there was a roof came off that hall in my locality, they did well with Ophelia. That was above the norm by a long way.

Oneiric 3

The NOAA 'cone' shows Lorenzo taking virtually the same path as Debby took back in early 60s.

Chart showing position of Debby on the evening before it wreaked havoc over the entire west of Ireland.