Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

Oneiric 3

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Down in cork, there was a roof came off that hall in my locality, they did well with Ophelia. That was above the norm by a long way.

It was nothing more than a standard Autumn gale here. The 'red warning' was totally unwarranted for this part of the country.

Graces7

sdanseo wrote: »

A strongly worded letter to Lorenzo is in order. Really not on

A strong word to the Man Upstairs is in progress! Actually, which is rare for me, I may well have something important at that time in dire need of calmer weather; I was asking re a tidal event here for that reason, but Lorenzo could scupper that. What worries me most is the comment on the forecast on met.ie as they do not usually worry this far ahead.. :eek:

Has taken months to get this even this organised. I mean, you know by now that I just hunker down and survive - even if the groceries fail!

Everything is on hold, in abeyance. Knitting even faster than usual; winter hat orders welcomed! ( I mean that!)

The high horse brigade

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It was nothing more than a standard Autumn gale here. The 'red warning' was totally unwarranted for this part of the country.

That's not the point, it could have been catastrophic like Debbie, it was something unheard of that we've very little experience with

Graces7

Leila Eager Blowgun wrote: »

As I sit on top of a mountain facing the Atlantic I really hope this is a non event!!!

Me too! I am a bare field away from the mighty ocean out here. Facing north and very exposed.

Meant to ask which direction the wind will be from, please? For battening things down....

Oneiric 3

The high horse brigade wrote: »

it could have been catastrophic like Debbie

It was never going to be though.

Graces7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It was nothing more than a standard Autumn gale here. The 'red warning' was totally unwarranted for this part of the country.

"Better safe than sorry" comes to mind. Since when has weather prediction been so exact? These events as we are seeing now re Lorenzo, are volatile. We have to allow for the worst to avoid risking lives. Which storm was it when they erred on the side of no danger and children were stranded in school?

JanuarySnowstor

The 06z icon continues to keep it well West of Ireland. It's a decent model and deserves plenty plaudits if it calls this one right. Eyes down for the gfs

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Can we keep debate about warnings out of this thread please. Stay on topic.

vistafinder

Good. Way out west is best. Its too early in the season for this crap.

JanuarySnowstor

Gfs also keeps it way out West
Game over!!

Carol25

Would anyone on here be able to give a guidance as to when the ECM post their latest model updates? At the moment, there seems to be a huge variation on the track of this storm between the GFS, ICON & ECMWF and UK weather model.

pad199207

Carol25 wrote: »

Would anyone on here be able to give an guidance as to when the ECM post their latest model updates? At the moment, there seems to be a huge variation on the track of this storm between the GFS, ICON & ECMWF and UK weather model.

ECM and NHC are your best bets for this. Will see this evening if any adjustments made re GFS

Villain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Gfs also keeps it way out West
Game over!!

Game over? ROFL

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

Game over? ROFL

Not like JS to make dramatic statements!

JanuarySnowstor

I don't understand Munster L the last 4 gfs runs have kept it out West. The last 3 icon runs have done similar. The ecm and ukmo have been all over the shop at one point agreeing that the storm would hit Northern France!! Maybe I do make dramatic statements but if you analyse them they're quite often correct. The fact remains that even if the ukmo or ecm were correct the storm disintegrates to almost nothing. That for me equates to game over. Of course I could be wrong but am entitled to my opinion which is supported by most recent charts

JCX BXC

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't understand Munster L the last 4 gfs runs have kept it out West. The last 3 icon runs have done similar. The ecm and ukmo have been all over the shop at one point agreeing that the storm would hit Northern France!! Maybe I do make dramatic statements but if you analyse them they're quite often correct. The fact remains that even if the ukmo or ecm were correct the storm disintegrates to almost nothing. That for me equates to game over. Of course I could be wrong but am entitled to my opinion which is supported by most recent charts

Which is fine with reason such as above. I might disagree with what your saying, but at least it's a discussion and not a sweeping statement! You're one of the more coherent and leveled posters here.

On a different note:
Honestly even reading last night's and this morning's posts my head hurts. The same old wind up tactics, the same old arguments and the same old trolls. If this is the way the weather forum continues to go it's really pulling the fun out of contributing.

ninebeanrows

Looking at the data and track projections it looks unlikely Ireland will see any significant impacts from this system.

If Lorenzo engages with the Jet and undergoes RACY during its extratropical transition it is likely to end up joining the main parent low and heading south of Iceland.

If it misses the Jet likely to weaken markedly as it approaches Biscay and southern approaches.

The only way this hits Ireland with menace is if the upper trough in the mid-Atlantic is positioned closer to Ireland than progged and thus the track it takes as it undergoes transition is closer to Ireland— but upper troughs are much more predictable than the movements of hurricanes- and this is why we are seeing this boiling down to those 2 scenarios.

Still could be clip of rain regardless

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't understand Munster L the last 4 gfs runs have kept it out West. The last 3 icon runs have done similar. The ecm and ukmo have been all over the shop at one point agreeing that the storm would hit Northern France!! Maybe I do make dramatic statements but if you analyse them they're quite often correct. The fact remains that even if the ukmo or ecm were correct the storm disintegrates to almost nothing. That for me equates to game over. Of course I could be wrong but am entitled to my opinion which is supported by most recent charts

To say game over when the most reliable model for this part of the world the ecm doesn’t is dramatic. Yeah you could be right but i’d be waiting a while before any certainty.

JanuarySnowstor

That's a good post sleet rain and sums up the situation very well. Met Eireann should come out and say something similar to at least dampen down the media spin. They say they are monitoring the situation daily.....In all fairness this will be resolved this evening you would think

Meteorite58

NHC consistent with their track ( close to or directly making landfall ). UKMO and ECM to a lesser extent tracking more towards Ireland ( ECM taking it off the S coast on this run as previous run ). GFS consistent way off west as ICON but I would think ICON wouldn't have the computational power with a system of this nature this far out .

All the models would be in new territory with a system of this nature I would imagine as will be our national forecasters hence like last time a leaning towards the expertise of the NHC whose bread and butter is this kind of scenario. On the rankings ECM ( the last time I checked ) comes out on top.

Even if it makes landfall it could still be in a weakened state like any autumn low pressure or it could be a full blown storm, only time will tell and hopefully in a couple of days there will be better clarity but it could still go down to the wire in how close it gets and how strong it will be .

This is certainly a head scratcher and a brilliant opportunity to learn as each day progresses.

Quote Met Eireann 'Met Éireann, the UK Met Office and the US National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) are holding daily conference discussions. The progress of Lorenzo and any potential impacts for Ireland are being closely monitored.



https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1178252108400857088?s=20

SleetAndSnow

Just from doing some reading online (like learning more about these things! ), it seems that there is generally not much upper air data in that location which can mislead models etc, so i would be saying we are very far from having 'game over', is it possible the ECM even included that it was upgraded to a CAT 5 overnight? The next models could be very interesting indeed.

squarecircles

Hard to believe that within the space of 2 years Met Éireann are in conference calls again with the National Hurricane Centre in Florida, is this a sign of things to come in the future.

Is this happening
This could be happening
THIS. IS. HAPPENING

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/KildareMet/status/1178263772772945921?s=20

ninebeanrows

What worries me is if Lorenzo doesn't catch its ride with the Jet, it will likely have some effect on Ireland (it's rain-belts and perhaps some blustery winds) but just as an ordinary Atlantic low and god only knows what tripe and hype will be in the media.

This is going to be hyped up out of control in the media over the next 2-3 days and with no grasp with the actual facts, they'll just be posting that NHC chart showing a hurricane/ tropical storm hitting Ireland, they won't be seeing that it is actually an extra-tropical storm etc.

Scrabbel

To those who are expert in all this, what’s the following from NHC this morning really telling us? It reads like if Lorenzo passes NW of us offshore we could still see damage. Or is it saying something else? Is their timescale for the comment extending to Thurs/Fri?

“The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided
input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.”

m17

ch750536

Just for fun I decided to calculate the average M6 sea temps for this day, it's 14.5c. Today is 14.7. I need to find a new hobby.

Gaoth Laidir

Here's another view of this morning's official forecast. It's well below what the similar was showing for Ophelia. 10-minute mean winds around 45-50 knots, gusts of up to 65 knots as it makes landfall here is nothing extraordinary, except maybe that trees are in leaf. Pound for pound, at this stage Lorenzo's threat is looking less than Ophelia's. No need for national panic just yet, but of course that won't stop the clickbait like the Dublin Live tweet above.

The latest microwave shows it well open now and becoming exposed to shear. Interesting few days ahead.

Pangea

Siobhan on the farming forecast just said it looks like it will clip the south coast and showed it heading towards Britain.

hatrickpatrick

Scrabbel wrote: »

Absolutely right. Without all the warnings, closures and minimisation of travel that number would have been much higher. Imagine what the response on these boards would have been then. Hopefully Lorenzo doesnt hit that hard.

I can only speak for where I live, but the number of trees down, garden walls ripped through and cars damaged as a result of falling debris around the Glenageary, Glasthule and Sandycove areas was unbelievable once Ophelia had passed. In Dun Laoghaire main street, several of those overhanging, swinging signs a lot of shops have mounted outside (either showing their logo or saying "OPEN") and to let / for sale signs were pulled down and blown halfway up the street - if it hadn't been for pretty much everyone holing up indoors and not going outside due to the red alert, it's hard to believe people wouldn't have been hit and severely injured or killed by projectiles such as these being carried along in those strong winds. Not many of them came down, but those that did ended up surprisingly far away from where they had previously been mounted on the wall, and I'm just picturing things like that blowing along in the strong winds while people went about their business as if it was just an ordinary storm...