Alberto Salazar banned for 4 years

Ceepo

robinph wrote: »

It's not accurate. But give it a few weeks and see what time Kipchoge knocks out in Vienna.

I believe it is based off the WAVA tables and they favour womens standards, and especially vet women, which is easily noticeable just from looking at any parkrun results table which are also derived from the same WAVA numbers. Think that is mostly down to the lack of results for females through out athletic events making the percentage numbers unreliable.

But allowing for that slightly squiffy underlying WAVA data, the difference between male and female times for various distances, and for the 2:00(m)/ 2:15(f) against 2:02(m)/2:17(f) match very closely.

A second a mile faster by Kipchoge and slower by Radcliffe and the calculator would be spot on. Not beyond the realms of acceptable errors. Not saying there isn't a fire somewhere, but I don't believe the times are the smoking gun you are looking for as they just don't show anything out of the ordinary between the male/ female times.

Admittedly their were significant differences between the standards until last year, but where then is the accusations at Kipchoge/ Bekele now?

2.02 and 2.17 mach up.
But no one has ran 2 hrs in a marathon, except for a staged race in very controlled environments.. so that shows 2.15 as an outlier, also taking into account that sports nutrition and science and even textile technology like Nike 4% runners has moved on since 03.

And just to be clear, I'm not looking for a smoking gun..

As for Kipchoge or Bekele... making accusations like that would be against the forum charter...

robinph

The 2:15 is an outlier and has an asterisk against it, just as the 2:00 does and they are outliers by about the same amount. Different setup for the two runs, but neither meet the standard record setting requirements.

Ceepo

robinph wrote: »

The 2:15 is an outlier and has an asterisk against it, just as the 2:00 does and they are outliers by about the same amount. Different setup for the two runs, but neither meet the standard record setting requirements.

I understand why the 2.00 hr has a * but why in your opinion has the 2.15

skyblue46

robinph wrote: »

The 2:15 is an outlier and has an asterisk against it, just as the 2:00 does and they are outliers by about the same amount. Different setup for the two runs, but neither meet the standard record setting requirements.

I think the 2:15 is an outlier for another reason. Marathon times are dominated by African countries, more specifically Ethiopia and Kenya. Of the top 100 male runners in history about 90 are from these two countries, 2 more from there who run under the flags of Bahrain and Turkey. Aside from these there are 3 Moroccans, Mo Farah (55th), Norwegian Sondre Moen (83rd), a Japanese and a Brazilian. Both Farah and Moen are approx 4 mins slower than the fastest time.

The female 2:15 is not only faster than any Kenyan/Ethiopian but is also nearly 4 minutes faster than the next athlete not from either of those two countries. Its quite an achievement to overcome the genetic/physiological/evolutionary advantages that runners from Kenya/Ethiopia have.

chasingpaper

skyblue46 wrote: »

I think the 2:15 is an outlier for another reason. Marathon times are dominated by African countries, more specifically Ethiopia and Kenya. Of the top 100 male runners in history about 90 are from these two countries, 2 more from there who run under the flags of Bahrain and Turkey. Aside from these there are 3 Moroccans, Mo Farah (55th), Norwegian Sondre Moen (83rd), a Japanese and a Brazilian. Both Farah and Moen are approx 4 mins slower than the fastest time.

The female 2:15 is not only faster than any Kenyan/Ethiopian but is also nearly 4 minutes faster than the next athlete not from either of those two countries. Its quite an achievement to overcome the genetic/physiological/evolutionary advantages that runners from Kenya/Ethiopia have.

But the women's top 100 is far more diverse. This could be due to cultural issues, the womens marathon not really recognised or promoted in Kenya/Ethiopia until recently.
Look at the top 100 times pre 2000. Top Ethiopian is 40th, there are only 2 in the top 100!

Could be argued that many of top east Africans have stayed on the track and only moved to roads after their peak. Even on the men's side, what would Bekele have done if he focused on marathon at younger age?

Maybe it is just that the marathon records were pretty soft, 2:03 and 2:17. Maybe 2:00 and 2:14 will be the new norm once the event matures and the coaching knowledge/experience of having the real top athletes compete there for years, not just after their track legs are gone.

In short the marathon is a retirement home for real athletes

Had another check of the top lists there for 5 and 10,000, east African women are relatively anonymous pre2000. Which probably skews our perception of what true ability of women's distance runners is. Maybe that is why Paula was an outlier, not because her time is so outstanding but because her main competition hadnot yet matured as a sport, and is still taking the time to do so.

robinph

skyblue46 wrote: »

robinph wrote: »

The 2:15 is an outlier and has an asterisk against it, just as the 2:00 does and they are outliers by about the same amount. Different setup for the two runs, but neither meet the standard record setting requirements.

I think the 2:15 is an outlier for another reason. Marathon times are dominated by African countries, more specifically Ethiopia and Kenya. Of the top 100 male runners in history about 90 are from these two countries, 2 more from there who run under the flags of Bahrain and Turkey. Aside from these there are 3 Moroccans, Mo Farah (55th), Norwegian Sondre Moen (83rd), a Japanese and a Brazilian. Both Farah and Moen are approx 4 mins slower than the fastest time.

The female 2:15 is not only faster than any Kenyan/Ethiopian but is also nearly 4 minutes faster than the next athlete not from either of those two countries. Its quite an achievement to overcome the genetic/physiological/evolutionary advantages that runners from Kenya/Ethiopia have.

Yes, but I think there is actually far more to change in women's times than men's once another generation of female runners from East Africa come through. Their opportunities are severely limited compared to the men in being discovered and taking part in sport in the first place. The men's event was still being won by White Europeans 20 years ago.

The longer the event the closer the gap between male and female times and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a big jump due in women's marathon times in the next decade.

robinph

skyblue46 wrote: »

robinph wrote: »

The 2:15 is an outlier and has an asterisk against it, just as the 2:00 does and they are outliers by about the same amount. Different setup for the two runs, but neither meet the standard record setting requirements.

I think the 2:15 is an outlier for another reason. Marathon times are dominated by African countries, more specifically Ethiopia and Kenya. Of the top 100 male runners in history about 90 are from these two countries, 2 more from there who run under the flags of Bahrain and Turkey. Aside from these there are 3 Moroccans, Mo Farah (55th), Norwegian Sondre Moen (83rd), a Japanese and a Brazilian. Both Farah and Moen are approx 4 mins slower than the fastest time.

The female 2:15 is not only faster than any Kenyan/Ethiopian but is also nearly 4 minutes faster than the next athlete not from either of those two countries. Its quite an achievement to overcome the genetic/physiological/evolutionary advantages that runners from Kenya/Ethiopia have.

Yes, but I think there is actually far more to change in women's times than men's once another generation of female runners from East Africa come through. Their opportunities are severely limited compared to the men in being discovered and taking part in sport in the first place. The men's event was still being won by White Europeans 20 years ago.

The longer the event the closer the gap between male and female times and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a big jump due in women's marathon times in the next decade.

Ceepo

And so the conclusion on 2.15 being legit is... no conclusion... interesting discussion all the same...

Back on topic.. there was a piece on Salazar/NOP The last word this evening.
sorry I can link it..

skyblue46

Ceepo wrote: »

And so the conclusion on 2.15 being legit is... no conclusion... interesting discussion all the same...

Back on topic.. there was a piece on Salazar/NOP The last word this evening.
sorry I can link it..

It'll probably be available on their site as a podcast.

Yes it is a very interesting discussion which probably raises more questions than it answers. The biggest one for me is this.....most people accept that there are lots of runners doping in some form or another. Salazar has been implicated yet no athletes named. It seems that questioning outlier performances, sudden mid career improvement and seemingly untouchable world records being broken is not generally accepted. So who are the cheats?

Ceepo

skyblue46 wrote: »

It'll probably be available on their site as a podcast.

Yes it is a very interesting discussion which probably raises more questions than it answers. The biggest one for me is this.....most people accept that there are lots of runners doping in some form or another. Salazar has been implicated yet no athletes named. It seems that questioning outlier performances, sudden mid career improvement and seemingly untouchable world records being broken is not generally accepted. So who are the cheats?

Also child prodigy athlete is no guarantee that they dont use peds either. Marion Jones was a huge talent at 15....
So while it is possible/plausible that some athletes can be have stand out performance theres no real pattern. Some people performance will always gain more attention that others, athletes who "develop late" athletes who "work with dodgy coaches" train with others that have a history or train in countries where testing is non existent..
It would certainly be foolish for any athletes to allow themselves to be be in any of these situations.. imagine if you were an athlete that had all of the above...

OOnegative

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other-sports/sonia-o-sullivan-salazar-story-casts-a-shadow-over-events-in-doha-1.4038174?mode=amp

Sinbad_NI

Question for all... do you believe in the east African athletes and their times... male or female?

There's been many questions and articles written over the years about their (lack of) implementation of anti doping.

Ayana's 10,000 WR just made up my mind. just didn't look real. Looked life a mid 90s cycling performance.

whatcanidonow

Radcliffe has such an untrustworthy face. Another similarity to Armstrong. I know that's not an indication one way or the other but her reaction to Salazar getting banned certainly doesn't help her claims of being innocent. Of course, the "You print it and I sue you [and] you won’t be getting any money back in future like Lance Armstrong — I promise you that.” really makes her look bad.

Sinbad_NI

By the sage token though. Just because you're a nice guy/gal doesn't mean we shouldn't be suspicious.

whatcanidonow

Sinbad_NI wrote: »

By the sage token though. Just because you're a nice guy/gal doesn't mean we shouldn't be suspicious.

Yes but the reason we're suspicious isn't because she's nice or not nice.

Sinbad_NI

whatcanidonow wrote: »

Yes but the reason we're suspicious isn't because she's nice or not nice.

Agree, but I think Armstrong being a right c**t has made the causal observers think that's the dopers physiology.
Don't forget he was a right c**t long before he took PEDs.

Likewise there's been many cool nice people caught out over the years, more in fact, which makes sense as most people are nice/normal.

Ceepo

Great run from Hassan...

The problem now is theres a cloud over her performances and because of her coach

nannerby

Ceepo wrote: »

Great run from Hassan...

The problem now is theres a cloud over her performances and because of her coach

Apart from her coach to front run a 1500 and run that time there will always be questions asked.

Ceepo

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/craziest-week-in-athletics-case-against-salazar-bekele/id1461719225?i=1000452311006

Great podcast from Ross Tucker.. well worth a listen

skyblue46

Honestly I think this NOP thing is going to become a diversion just like Russia. The problem is widespread and to pretend it's one country and one training group probably suits the IAAF down to the ground. We'll have neutral NOP athletes next!

OOnegative

skyblue46 wrote: »

Honestly I think this NOP thing is going to become a diversion just like Russia. The problem is widespread and to pretend it's one country and one training group probably suits the IAAF down to the ground. We'll have neutral NOP athletes next!

NOP ain’t going anywhere as long as the swoosh is behind them!! Saying it for years there coach was filthy, person I feel most sorry for is Dick Beardsley.

Ceepo

OOnegative wrote: »

NOP ain’t going anywhere as long as the swoosh is behind them!! Saying it for years there coach was filthy, person I feel most sorry for is Dick Beardsley.

That swoosh is the sound of things being swept under the carpet

OOnegative

Ceepo wrote: »

That swoosh is the sound of things being swept under the carpet

Great runners though, you make amazing progress wearing them as long as you’re with NOP.

adrian522

Nick Willis saying what everyone is thinking...

https://twitter.com/nickwillis/status/1180546595663880203

Ceepo

https://www.iaaf.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/1500-metres/outdoor/women/senior

The all time list makes for good reading

OOnegative

Ceepo wrote: »

https://www.iaaf.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/1500-metres/outdoor/women/senior

The all time list makes for good reading

Ma’s Army!!!

adrian522

Good read here on the hypocrisy of the BBC and Seb Coe

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/oct/04/sebastian-coe-alberto-salazar-very-british-hypocrisy-athletics

dastardly00

Ceepo wrote: »

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/craziest-week-in-athletics-case-against-salazar-bekele/id1461719225?i=1000452311006

Great podcast from Ross Tucker.. well worth a listen

Thanks for posting. I like listening to Tucker when he's on Off The Ball so I'll definitely give this a listen

echat

adrian522 wrote: »

Nick Willis saying what everyone is thinking...

https://twitter.com/nickwillis/status/1180546595663880203

We should acknowledge how incredible her performance in the 10000 was, breaking 4 minutes for the last 1500m and then going on to run riot in the 1500m. She was so angry in her BBC interview.

Murph_D

adrian522 wrote: »

Good read here on the hypocrisy of the BBC and Seb Coe

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/oct/04/sebastian-coe-alberto-salazar-very-british-hypocrisy-athletics

Yep. But the BBC is a complex beast. Don’t forget it was another arm of the Beeb that exposed Salazar in the first place.