By-Elections 2019

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Are you going to give every future coalition government a free pass on twiddling their thumbs if health care is collapsing ?
It certainly sounds that way, or is it just going to be coalition governments led by FG.

This is an interesting question.
It depends on the viewpoint. In the older era's the Minister of Health was the self proclaimed person 'running' the health service. They lived and died by the sword.
Now however, because the health service is so big, so complicated, so poltiical and so inefficeient its impossible for one person to run it.
It is in my mind too big for one party to run it either.

So, really is the health system the sole remit of one party in government or is it the responsiblity of the wider political system?
That is the question we should be asking.

2011 FG had 76 seats (7 short of an overall majority) and Labour had 37. That gave that government 113 seats where the main opposition party, in a very fractured opposition, had 24.
Labour sold their soul for cabinet seats in 2011 and from the water metering fiasco that wasted 1,000,000,000 euro of taxpayers money, it is more than obvious the Labour party come hell or high water were not going to take their behinds off those cabinet seats until their ministerial pension were guaranteed.
FG could have sacrificed every SIPTU members first born and Labour wouldn`t have budged.

This is nonesense to be fair. Do you know that when Irish Water was created, that not one person from a LA was let go, because Labour demanded it?
It was like the HSE again, create a national body to oversee the provision of water/health but retain all surplus staff regardless..... Labour did that, not FG.

Slaintecare is nothing more than Harris, who is completely out of his depth, attempting to put on some spin that he is improving the service. Which is par for FG over the last 8 years where spin has greatly outweighed substance

Again, nonesense. Slaintecare is the only game in town now. Its headed up by the Rosin Shorthall and has been championed by her.

You must have missed this then as well.
https://www.thejournal.ie/six-regional-healthcare-areas-hse-4727384-Jul2019/

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

O`Gorman did well in the locals but it would be a long way from 4.12% of FPVs in 2016 to a seat in 2019 with all the big guns in that constituency. Especially if O`Broin does decide to run there.


I would not see Varadkar having enough (if any) surplus to get a running mate a seat.
He only reached the quota on the third count due to his running mate`s elimination after the second count.

The combined FG vote in 2016 was 22%. Unless Varadkar is going to split a lesser vote than SF in Mid West then there is no chance of FG taking a second seat.
A greater chance of taking none in fact as there are much lesser chance of pickings in West for FG than there are for SF in Mid West.

O'Gorman got more votes (3,731) in one ward - Castleknock - than the three leading Sinn Fein candidates across all three wards in the locals.

Fianna Fail ran five candidates across the three wards and got 3,800. Sinn Fein ran six candidates and got 3,946 votes.

O'Gorman, and the other elected Green - Whooley in Ongar - got 4,391 between them, and they didn't even run a candidate in Blanchardstown/Mulhuddart.

The combined FG vote across the wards was 5,295. Solidarity only got 1,921 votes, even Labour did better (2,471).

If you just based it on the locals, FG and Greens would be certain for one each, with FF likely to get the third and a fight for the last between Coppinger, Donnelly, Currie and Burton. O'Broin as a blow-in, might swing it for SF, but that wouldn't necessarily go down well either.

charlie14 wrote: »

Not sure, but if she doesn`t it would more than likely help O`Broin if he does run there. A fair percentage of her vote I suspect is personal and might not transfer to another Labour candidate.

John Walsh is the likely candidate if she drops out, and he won't figure.

duffman13

Faugheen wrote: »

Only two I could see beating O’Broin from that list are Leo and Chambers.

He knows how to get people out to vote, and SF already have a solid base there, just not enough to get over the line. A star name like O’Broin (whatever you may think of the Shinners, he’ll lead them one day) and it changes everything.

I'd agree, I met Ward and O'Broin on the door, one of only two who knocked and they had a fairly sizeable group of canvassers. I'm not a fan of SF policies in general and in years gone by the candidates have been unlikable in DMW. O'Broin can talk and is very likeable, it's a pity he'll probably never get a crack in government. He also seems like someone who would like the challenge of taking a seat in the constituency.

I could see him taking a risk and either jumping constituencies or running with Mark along side him. If Kenny and O'Broin can get elected in DMW then so can Ward and O'Broin but they'd have to get Kenny eliminated first for transfers. Generally with the profile of both candidates in the area, they are more transfer friendly than SF usually are.

All four current TDs are from Clondalkin at the moment which means Gogarty looks an almost cert if he gets the Lucan/Palmerstown areas out to vote in the next GE. I can not see Gino holding a seat in any scenario at the moment.

My guess is
O'Broin or Ward
Curran
Gogarty
Higgins

If SF run both it'll be a battle between Ward/Gogarty/Higgins for the two seats

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

This is an interesting question.
It depends on the viewpoint. In the older era's the Minister of Health was the self proclaimed person 'running' the health service. They lived and died by the sword.
Now however, because the health service is so big, so complicated, so poltiical and so inefficeient its impossible for one person to run it.
It is in my mind too big for one party to run it either.

So, really is the health system the sole remit of one party in government or is it the responsiblity of the wider political system?
That is the question we should be asking.

People going to the polling booth in a short while will not be asking themselves that question if the health service is one of their priorities on how they will vote
They will simply look on the health services as it now is and vote accordingly.

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

This is nonesense to be fair. Do you know that when Irish Water was created, that not one person from a LA was let go, because Labour demanded it?
It was like the HSE again, create a national body to oversee the provision of water/health but retain all surplus staff regardless..... Labour did that, not FG.

Water metering did not fail simply because of the number of people from the LA`s taken on by Irish Water.
It was FG`s baby and failed because it was an ill thought out mess from day one where FG had one shot at getting it right and got it so spectacularly wrong they have taken it off the political agenda for generations.

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

Again, nonesense. Slaintecare is the only game in town now. Its headed up by the Rosin Shorthall and has been championed by her.

You must have missed this then as well.
https://www.thejournal.ie/six-regional-healthcare-areas-hse-4727384-Jul2019/

Rosin Shorthall has stated that unless it is funded properly it will be a waste of time. Pascal Donohue has no interest in funding it. It has been a talking shop since 2016 with the total investments in projects to date 20M.
Pennies.
So now 15 years after regional health boards were abolished and 8 years after FG taking the reins, their third minister for health want to re-establish them.
And people wonder why many look on Harris as a spinner completely out of his depth.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Rosin Shorthall has stated that unless it is funded properly it will be a waste of time. Pascal Donohue has no interest in funding it. It has been a talking shop since 2016 with the total investments in projects to date 20M.
Pennies.
So now 15 years after regional health boards were abolished and 8 years after FG taking the reins, their third minister for health want to re-establish them.
And people wonder why many look on Harris as a spinner completely out of his depth.

Roisin Shorthall won't tell us where the money is to come from.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Roisin Shorthall won't tell us where the money is to come from.

Well according to the poster I was replying to she is the person in charge, so I imagine she doesn`t know rather than her simply knowing and not telling.


Doesn`t say much for the future of a plan if the person in charge doesn`t know what the funding is or where it is coming from now does it.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Well according to the poster I was replying to she is the person in charge, so I imagine she doesn`t know rather than her simply knowing and not telling.


Doesn`t say much for the future of a plan if the person in charge doesn`t know what the funding is or where it is coming from now does it.

Nope, the problem with Slaintecare is that it is very long on dreams and aspirations, but the funding side wasn't addressed at all.

The honest thing for that committee to have done would have been to suggest the reintroduction of the health levy on incomes.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Nope, the problem with Slaintecare is that it is very long on dreams and aspirations, but the funding side wasn't addressed at all.

The honest thing for that committee to have done would have been to suggest the reintroduction of the health levy on incomes.

Slaintecare is going nowhere unless it is funded properly and there is no will in FG to do so.
It, along with Harris now looking to add another level of bureaucracy with regional boards it looks like nothing much more than an effort to be seen to be doing something about health care by someone who hasn`t a clue.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Slaintecare is going nowhere unless it is funded properly and there is no will in FG to do so.
It, along with Harris now looking to add another level of bureaucracy with regional boards it looks like nothing much more than an effort to be seen to be doing something about health care by someone who hasn`t a clue.

So the opposition can sit on a committee and come up with the nice idea of Slaintecare, but it is the responsibility of FG to be nasty and find a tax increase to pay for it?

What a typical abdication of responsibility by the opposition. As I said, the committee should have explained how it should be funded.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

So the opposition can sit on a committee and come up with the nice idea of Slaintecare, but it is the responsibility of FG to be nasty and find a tax increase to pay for it?

What a typical abdication of responsibility by the opposition. As I said, the committee should have explained how it should be funded.

What an inane post



Have you final lost the plot with this obsession of yours, as a supposedly Green supporters, when there is even the slightest perceived criticism of Fine Gael ?


Simon Harris FG TD and Minister for Health has taken ownership of Slaintecare and spouting nonsense as if it will be the solution to all the problems in health care.

Fine Gael supporters on here have enthused about it being a great Fine Gael initiative.


Why should it be opposition responsibility to find a way to fund it. They are not in charge of State finances in case you haven`t noticed.


If, as from the evidence to date, Fine Gael as the government party have no interest in funding it then why don`t they just tell their own party member and Minister for Health Harris.
But then that would be admitting that other than Harris`s distraction ploy with Slaintecare they have no plan or clue how to improve health care.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

People going to the polling booth in a short while will not be asking themselves that question if the health service is one of their priorities on how they will vote
They will simply look on the health services as it now is and vote accordingly.

You may very well be right, and they will be foolish to think so.

Think about it for a second, sure its an emotional response to the issue but its devoid of any reason or logic.

The voter is going to vote out one party of government to be replaced by another and they are going to do.... what exactly?
They will either go on a solo run in terms of health policy, which as we have seen before ends up in flames... or they are going to back Slaintecare, which has cross party support... or they want to create Slaintecare II or something, which delays everything further....

Beware of TD's telling you lies that they have the answer to this problem. The average TD who has no real world management or leadership experience is not going to suddenly head up a department with a 20 Billion annual budget that employes well over 100,000 people and change it all around within 5 years.

If you really believe that they can and its achiveable, then I have magic beans to sell.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Water metering did not fail simply because of the number of people from the LA`s taken on by Irish Water.
It was FG`s baby and failed because it was an ill thought out mess from day one where FG had one shot at getting it right and got it so spectacularly wrong they have taken it off the political agenda for generations.

Water is a big big topic in of itself, but I am 100% factually correct that it was the Labour party who demanded that no LA staff be made redundant in the creation of Irish Water and the amalgemation of water resources.

Also, both Alex White and Pat Rabbite were ministers of the Environment during this time, both Labour party TD's.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Rosin Shorthall has stated that unless it is funded properly it will be a waste of time. Pascal Donohue has no interest in funding it. It has been a talking shop since 2016 with the total investments in projects to date 20M.
Pennies.
So now 15 years after regional health boards were abolished and 8 years after FG taking the reins, their third minister for health want to re-establish them.
And people wonder why many look on Harris as a spinner completely out of his depth.

Ah, the mask slips. No, SlainteCare wants to re-establish them, the same SlainteCare who has cross party support.

The issues with health care in Ireland is detailed here.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2019/0807/1067404-the-long-history-of-reforming-the-irish-health-system/

To the fore is deep localism, poltiical interference and inefficent structures.

Also:
https://www.newstalk.com/news/slaintecare-plan-2019-health-837210

Sláintecare plans emerged from the Oireachtas Future of Healthcare Committee in 2017.

The committee secured all-party agreement for the plan, which will require an investment of around €5.8bn over the next ten years.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Slaintecare is going nowhere unless it is funded properly and there is no will in FG to do so.
It, along with Harris now looking to add another level of bureaucracy with regional boards it looks like nothing much more than an effort to be seen to be doing something about health care by someone who hasn`t a clue.

Yes, it has to be funded, but where are other parties suggesting this funding is going to come from?

See, its easy being on the sidelines, but Slaintecare has cross party support, its the plan for the next ten years. Now however, all parties have to agree on a funding model.

Its not see easy when you are on the ptich having to make decisions as being a hurler on the ditch.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Why should it be opposition responsibility to find a way to fund it.

Well, there is going to be an election in the next few months, so I look forward to see all the party manifestos on how they can all come up with these extra few Billion euros....
After all, they all want to be in government, dont they?

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

Ah, the mask slips. No, SlainteCare wants to re-establish them, the same SlainteCare who has cross party support.

The issues with health care in Ireland is detailed here.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2019/0807/1067404-the-long-history-of-reforming-the-irish-health-system/

To the fore is deep localism, poltiical interference and inefficent structures.

Also:
https://www.newstalk.com/news/slaintecare-plan-2019-health-837210

Do you even read links before you post them?


Where did you get the idea from that link that this Slaintecare committee has any powers to establish or re-establish anything ?


The first paragraph under a picture of Simon Harris, had you read it before posting, should have made that clear to you.


"The Minister for Health Simon Harris recently announced the breakup of the Health Service Executive. This involves the creation of six regional areas which will each have responsibility for budgets, management planning and delivery of health services in their area"

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

Yes, it has to be funded, but where are other parties suggesting this funding is going to come from?

See, its easy being on the sidelines, but Slaintecare has cross party support, its the plan for the next ten years. Now however, all parties have to agree on a funding model.

Its not see easy when you are on the ptich having to make decisions as being a hurler on the ditch.

Do you really have even the first clue of realpolitik or is it just when seeing criticism of a Fine Gael minister you decided to jump in head first trying to convince others that Simon Harris has discovered the golden bullet to solve all health care problems ?


Do you think that all other political parties are going to say to themselves "The journalist drop-out has cracked it. We need all put this in our manifestos on how we are going to follow it to the letter including detailed funding" when even his own party have no interest in funding it.

Nonsense.

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

Well, there is going to be an election in the next few months, so I look forward to see all the party manifestos on how they can all come up with these extra few Billion euros....
After all, they all want to be in government, dont they?

My last post covers this nonsense.

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

Water is a big big topic in of itself, but I am 100% factually correct that it was the Labour party who demanded that no LA staff be made redundant in the creation of Irish Water and the amalgemation of water resources.

Also, both Alex White and Pat Rabbite were ministers of the Environment during this time, both Labour party TD's.

Missed this earlier.
It was Fine Gael that demanded the establishment of Irish Water and domestic metering. Labour were not without blame as they canvassed on a manifesto of no water charges prior to GE 2011 ,but the LA staff moved over to Irish Water played a very small part in a FG led fiasco that cost taxpayers 1Billion euro. It was FG`s brainfart.



Phil Hogan the then Fine Gael T.D. was the Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government who established Irish Water and domestic water metering or had his "trickle" escaped your memory.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Missed this earlier.
It was Fine Gael that demanded the establishment of Irish Water and domestic metering. Labour were not without blame as they canvassed on a manifesto of no water charges prior to GE 2011 ,but the LA staff moved over to Irish Water played a very small part in a FG led fiasco that cost taxpayers 1Billion euro. It was FG`s brainfart.



Phil Hogan the then Fine Gael T.D. was the Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government who established Irish Water and domestic water metering or had his "trickle" escaped your memory.

More revisionist history.

http://michaelpidgeon.com/manifestos/docs/pfgs/PfG%202009%20-%202011%20-%20FF-Green.pdf


"Introduce charging for treated water use that is fair, significantly reduces
waste and is easily applied. It will be based on a system where households are
allocated a free basic allowance, with charging only for water use in excess of
this allowance. "

The Fianna Fail/Green government was the first one to commit to domestic metering.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

"The Minister for Health Simon Harris recently announced the breakup of the Health Service Executive. This involves the creation of six regional areas which will each have responsibility for budgets, management planning and delivery of health services in their area"

I'll make this simple for you.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/regional-healthcare-to-return-in-biggest-restructuring-of-hse-in-15-years-1.3956601

The Government will give the go-ahead this week for the biggest restructuring of the Health Service Executive (HSE) since it was established almost 15 years ago.

Minister for Health Simon Harris is to bring proposals to Cabinet on Wednesday to re-establish six regional healthcare structures around the State, which will have high levels of autonomy.

The change will essentially result in a partial return to the old health board system that was in place before the HSE came into being on January 1st, 2005.

The move towards such a fundamental restructuring reflects Government thinking that the HSE is not fit for purpose, as it has become too large and bureaucratic.

Sources said yesterday there was a need to devolve the services more to the regions, and that would mean setting up a modern iteration of the old health boards. The corollary would be, the sources said, that the HSE would become a much smaller and slimmed-down organisation, with responsibility for governance, oversight and national management of the service.

This change was recommended by the all-party committee that published Sláintecare, the blueprint for the future of the health services. It is also understood to be a priority for the new HSE chief executive Paul Reid.

You are welcome.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Do you really have even the first clue of realpolitik or is it just when seeing criticism of a Fine Gael minister you decided to jump in head first trying to convince others that Simon Harris has discovered the golden bullet to solve all health care problems ?


Do you think that all other political parties are going to say to themselves "The journalist drop-out has cracked it. We need all put this in our manifestos on how we are going to follow it to the letter including detailed funding" when even his own party have no interest in funding it.

Nonsense.

As I said, I look forward to each party's manifesto being published which will outline the funding of SlainteCare they ALL signed up to.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

More revisionist history.

http://michaelpidgeon.com/manifestos/docs/pfgs/PfG%202009%20-%202011%20-%20FF-Green.pdf


"Introduce charging for treated water use that is fair, significantly reduces
waste and is easily applied. It will be based on a system where households are
allocated a free basic allowance, with charging only for water use in excess of
this allowance. "

The Fianna Fail/Green government was the first one to commit to domestic metering.

More attempting to avoid reality.

It wasn`t Fianna Fail and the Greens that established Irish Water for the purpose of metering domestic households with a free basic allowance of 30,000 liters per year.

Irish Water was established by the Fine Gael/Labour government of 2011 - 2016 through the Water Services Act July 2013 under the then Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government, Phil Hogan.

Hogan`s reward for overseeing and adding to the shambles that ultimately wasted a fortune of taxpayers money was getting the nod from Enda Kenny for a well paid role in the E.U.
Either that or it was a reward for getting Kenny elected leader of Fine Gael.
I`ll leave it up to you to decide which makes of those two is the most likely

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

More attempting to avoid reality.

It wasn`t Fianna Fail and the Greens that established Irish Water for the purpose of metering domestic households with a free basic allowance of 30,000 liters per year.

Irish Water was established by the Fine Gael/Labour government of 2011 - 2016 through the Water Services Act July 2013 under the then Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government, Phil Hogan.

Hogan`s reward for overseeing and adding to the shambles that ultimately wasted a fortune of taxpayers money was getting the nod from Enda Kenny for a well paid role in the E.U.
Either that or it was a reward for getting Kenny elected leader of Fine Gael.
I`ll leave it up to you to decide which makes of those two is the most likely

I never said that FF/Greens established Irish Water, I said that they were the first to propose domestic metering. Counter what I said, not what you want to read.

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

As I said, I look forward to each party's manifesto being published which will outline the funding of SlainteCare they ALL signed up to.

I have pointed out to you in numerous posts that Fine Gael have shown no interest in funding Slaintecare which is being championed by their very own Minister for Health, Simon Harris.
Yet you somehow imagine that ALL other parties will follow what Simon Harris cannot even get the backing of his own party on by the letter with detailed funding in their manifesto`s .
Seriously, when it comes to politics, wherever you are coming from, it is not the real world

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

I have pointed out to you in numerous posts that Fine Gael have shown no interest in funding Slaintecare which is being championed by their very own Minister for Health, Simon Harris.
Yet you somehow imagine that ALL other parties will follow what Simon Harris cannot even get the backing of his own party on by the letter with detailed funding in their manifesto`s .
Seriously, when it comes to politics, wherever you are coming from, it is not the real world

Are you suggesting that all other parties are equally uninterested in Slaintecare?

It is very easy to say "Implement Slaintecare", but the public are going to ask at election time, who is going to pay for it? "Ah, um, that's for Fine Gael to decide" won't cut it then.

markodaly

charlie14 wrote: »

More attempting to avoid reality.

It wasn`t Fianna Fail and the Greens that established Irish Water for the purpose of metering domestic households with a free basic allowance of 30,000 liters per year.

Idbatterim

I thought water charges were a good idea. Until you realise, that it’s those who already pay for everything would be hit. Fifty percent of the country would probably be exempted from paying them. Far better it comes out of general taxation...