Scottish independence

Brussels Sprout

VinLieger wrote: »

44% of the vote wins 56% of the seats...... #democracy

And the Tories won 56% of the total seats with 43.6% of the votes

FPTP is a cruel mistress

BarryD2

I love how the SNP party & Scottish Independence has become a touchstone for many of the more vigorous nationalists in Ireland. There's a curious discontinuity between the cheering on from the sidelines juxtaposed with their dislike of our northern unionist brethren, many of whom identify with Scottish roots!!

One the one hand, we love the Scots because they're potentially breaking up the Union but on the other we 'hate' them and their cultural presence in Ulster.

Water John

I wish the SNP well in their endeavours but wouldn't be a nationalist Irish republican in any sense. I have no great desire to force any people into a Govn't system they are not ok with.

saabsaab

I'd say they are sorry now didn't take their chance in the referendum. Financial considerations played a big part in that and the threat at the time of being outside the EU if they left the UK.

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Also as The above poster pointed out even if that were the case then using that same logic Johnson has no mandate for Brexit with his 44%, so which is it?

it was a general election, you are confusing it with the Brexit referendum.

is_that_so

saabsaab wrote: »

I'd say they are sorry now didn't take their chance in the referendum. Financial considerations played a big part in that and the threat at the time of being outside the EU if they left the UK.

That's not a threat. They'd be a new country and accession rules would apply to them.

VinLieger

Aegir wrote: »

it was a general election, you are confusing it with the Brexit referendum.

I'm really not

Boris Johnson said he had a “powerful new mandate to get Brexit done,”

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-hails-powerful-new-mandate/

So according to the man himself 44% equals a mandate now? Yet the SNP with their 45% don't have a mandate for a 2nd ref?

saabsaab

What about Wales! Won't they be abandoned if Scotland and NI leave?

ancapailldorcha

saabsaab wrote: »

What about Wales! Won't they be abandoned if Scotland and NI leave?

What about them? They voted for Brexit. They have Plaid Cymru. If they want independence, they have an option at the ballot box.

saabsaab

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What about them? They voted for Brexit. They have Plaid Cymru. If they want independence, they have an option at the ballot box.

Poor auld Wales but i suppose you're right.

Fr Tod Umptious

VinLieger wrote: »

Corbyn never said he would have categorically refused another Independence ref like Johnson has so that's a completely incorrect statement.


Also as The above poster pointed out even if that were the case then using that same logic Johnson has no mandate for Brexit with his 44%, so which is it?

More fence sitting by Corbyn.

is_that_so

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

More fence sitting by Corbyn.

It doesn't matter what he thinks any more, he's gone.

Capt'n Midnight

saabsaab wrote: »

What about Wales! Won't they be abandoned if Scotland and NI leave?

Plaid Cymru only got FOUR seats out of 40 and only on the west coast. So proportionally the TD's from Clare, Galway West, Galway East and Mayo.

Compare that to North Wales where SIX seats changed from Labour to Tory.

The only seat Labour kept in North Wales was Alyn and Deeside with a majority of just 213.
And that despite the Tory vote dropping slightly from 18,080 to 18,058 down 22
But Labour went from 23,315 to 18,271 down 5,044


Welsh independence is impossible under FPTP given the number of English who live there.

If you can remember the old Not The Nine O'Clock News sketch
"Come home to a real fire. .... Buy a cottage in Wales"
The there hasn't been the same change as in Scotland.

serfboard

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The only seat Labour kept in North Wales was Alyn and Deeside with a majority of just 213.
And that despite the Tory vote dropping slightly from 18,080 to 18,058 down 22
But Labour went from 23,315 to 18,271 down 5,044

So where did those 5,000 votes go to?

Fewer people voted: -1,633
UKIP/BXP vote up: +1,561
Lib Dems up: +1,471
Plaid Cymru up: +282

Total: 4,947

So, of the votes lost, 32% stayed at home, 31% went to the Brexit Party, and 29% to the Lib Dems.

An almost 60% leave constituency were not convinced by Labour's equivocation - but were not convinced by the Conservatives either.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Welsh independence is impossible under FPTP given the number of English who live there.

66% of the people in Wales describe their nationality as Welsh, according to the last census. https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160108131743/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_290982.pdf

eire4

saabsaab wrote: »

I'd say they are sorry now didn't take their chance in the referendum. Financial considerations played a big part in that and the threat at the time of being outside the EU if they left the UK.

That is the great irony about the current situation in Scotland. The very people who threatened them that they would be out of the EU and not guaranteed to get back in if they voted for independence have now turned right around and just 5 odd years later voted them right out of the EU against their clearly expressed will in terms of how Scotland voted.

beggars_bush

Aegir wrote: »

66% of the people in Wales describe their nationality as Welsh, according to the last census. https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160108131743/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_290982.pdf

Only for rugby and soccer though

The 2020s

Scottish independence will have a massive effect on any future border poll due to the fact that the majority of northern unionists source their kinship with the Union through their Scottish ancestry. Very few of them feel any historical or emotional connection with the average person from England/Wales, so they might see Scotland leaving the Union as a sign that their membership is no longer
as much, thus reconsidering reunification with the rest of Ireland.

One Scotland is independent and Ireland is reunified and both full members of the EU, the relationship between our two closely linked nations will prosper unimaginably.

A Dub in Glasgo

Huge independence march in appalling weather in Glasgow this morning. The rally in Glasgow Green was cancelled due to the forecast of high winds


https://twitter.com/Superfind/status/1215974861161615360?s=09

Edgware

Boris has told the S.N.P. to sling their hook.
Let's watch them slink away with their tail between their legs.

Widdensushi

Edgware wrote: »

Boris has told the S.N.P. to sling their hook.
Let's watch them slink away with their tail between their legs.

I think it will drive them on,if he told them to carry on they would not feel oppressed

pixelburp

Nothing will make human beings want something stronger than when those in authority says they can't - especially if that authority figure is already deeply unpopular.

Johnsons definitive "no" will only bolster support, especially among those no voters from 2014, who did so on the promises of continued EU membership and the so-called "devo max"; that last-minute extension of autonomy promised to Hollyrood if the Scots rejected the referendum. Correct me if I'm wrong, but those extra rights never materialised, right? There's no ignoring that demographic who were persuaded to vote pragmatically, on the basis of two false promises.

A Dub in Glasgo

Edgware wrote: »

Let's watch them slink away with their tail between their legs.

That ain't going to happen

Johnson just demonstrated the authoritarian stupidity of the Tories

Water John

I'd say Sturgeon won't mind waiting 5 years if necessary. After all she been campaigning for SNP since she was 16. Meanwhile she'll pile on as much pressure as she can.

ancapailldorcha

Edgware wrote: »

Boris has told the S.N.P. to sling their hook.
Let's watch them slink away with their tail between their legs.

Serious discussion only please.

beggars_bush

realistically, what can the SNP now do?

Peregrinus

beggars_bush wrote: »

realistically, what can the SNP now do?

They could organise a referendum anyway, using their own inherent legislative powers, staff, funds , etc - what is to stop them? They can continue to lobby. They can withhold, or threaten to withhold, co-operation with Westminster on projects/activities that require joint Westminister/Holyrood action or co-ordination. There are various ways in which they can put pressure on to draw attention to the denial of a voice to Scottish people on the matter of Scotland's future.

Legally, Johnson can do this. Politically, it comes at a cost. And in the long term it's probably not sustainable. The UK can't hang together on the basis that its member nations are forbidden from voting about this, and still pretend to be a democratic entity.

Hawkeye9212

Peregrinus wrote: »

They could organise a referendum anyway, using their own inherent legislative powers, staff, funds , etc - what is to stop them? They can continue to lobby. They can withhold, or threaten to withhold, co-operation with Westminster on projects/activities that require joint Westminister/Holyrood action or co-ordination. There are various ways in which they can put pressure on to draw attention to the denial of a voice to Scottish people on the matter of Scotland's future.

Legally, Johnson can do this. Politically, it comes at a cost. And in the long term it's probably not sustainable. The UK can't hang together on the basis that its member nations are forbidden from voting about this, and still pretend to be a democratic entity.

The SNP can't organise a referendum without the consent of Westminster but let's assume that they do and Scotland votes for independence. The SNP will ask Johnson to start negotiations on a withdrawal agreement. He will say no so the SNP unilaterally declares independence to save political face. EU Member States won't recognise Scottish independence. Spain certainly won't. What does Scotland do now?

Peregrinus

It seeks political support for independence, and tries to build international pressure on the UK. Perhaps they start a campaign of non-cooperationw with Westminster; perhaps a campaign of civil disobedience. Westminster has overriding legal power but, politically, is it feasible in the long term to hold on to Scotland against its will when the last century has been a long succession of British-ruled territories securing independence once they no longer wished to be ruled by Britain?

The fact that the last Indyref was held does help to establish the principle that Westminster's rule in Scotland does ultimate depend on the consent of the people of Scotland. If that consent is withheld or revoked, Westminster's position is hugely weakened, politically speaking. Are they going to repudiate the principle? That would be hugely embarassing and greatly destabilising.

Hawkeye9212

Peregrinus wrote: »

It seeks political support for independence, and tries to build international pressure on the UK. Perhaps they start a campaign of non-cooperationw with Westminster; perhaps a campaign of civil disobedience. Westminster has overriding legal power but, politically, is it feasible in the long term to hold on to Scotland against its will when the last century has been a long succession of British-ruled territories securing independence once they no longer wished to be ruled by Britain?

The fact that the last Indyref was held does help to establish the principle that Westminster's rule in Scotland does ultimate depend on the consent of the people of Scotland. If that consent is withheld or revoked, Westminster's position is hugely weakened, politically speaking. Are they going to repudiate the principle? That would be hugely embarassing and greatly destabilising.

Catalonia thought the same. Most countries are not going to get involved. The EU will take a neutral stance and the US will side with the UK. Scotland can not be compared to former British colonies. They were the British Empire. They won't get any sympathy from the former colonies unlike Ireland.