Scottish independence

Hamsterchops

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And yet again, your faux-naivety rings loud and clear in one of your posts.

The circumstances as to why the SNP and SF want what they want are so different, that it's clear you're not bothered about discussing Scottish independence without a sheen of your bizarre pro-Union stance colouring the conversation.

Oops, sorry for posting my thoughts

Can't see anything in my post that would upset you. Borders come and go ......

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So you're saying that things were so different in Scotland Vs rUK that there was nothing to learn from what happened there?

That's a bit of a leap.

The situations were different, because they used different bodies to create the moderation process.

When you consider it took the SNP 8 days to backtrack and the Tories 3 then I guess you could say that yes, they did learn from what happened in Scotland.

dere34

Would Irish reunification be a dead cert within a decade of Scottish independence.

Mr.Nice Guy

New Panelbase poll puts support for independence at 55%, a reversal of the 2014 referendum result.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1296036446353195008


Worth remembering this is happening while the UK is still in the transition period. When that passes in January, might that be worth another point or two for Yes?

Certainly seems like the momentum is firmly with the Yes side. If the Tory strategy is to double down and continue to refuse another poll, I think that will only harden the resolve of people to vote to dissolve the union.

Water John

What are the chances of Labour winning back Westminster seats in Scotland? That's what will determine what Starmer might agree to post 2022 election when he is elected PM. If Scotland is a lost cause to both Labour and Tories then, a ref is inevitable.

pixelburp

Seems like the only thing that might arrest the now constant majority support for Independence would be the first proper post CoVid budgets. Across the world those are going to make the circa 2008 equivalents seem positively generous in comparison; the desire for a free Scotland might quickly be tempered by emptier coffers in Hollyrood; suddenly the bosom of Westminster may not feel so unwanted. Cos otherwise? Barring a wipeout at the 2021 elections it must surely be a question of when, not if.

bob mcbob

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

New Panelbase poll puts support for independence at 55%, a reversal of the 2014 referendum result.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1296036446353195008


Worth remembering this is happening while the UK is still in the transition period. When that passes in January, might that be worth another point or two for Yes?

Certainly seems like the momentum is firmly with the Yes side. If the Tory strategy is to double down and continue to refuse another poll, I think that will only harden the resolve of people to vote to dissolve the union.

Watch what happens with fishing. The Tories only have MP's in the North East around Aberdeen because of their promises around it. If they are forced to back down by the EU then the swing will be more than a point or two over.

A Dub in Glasgo

Water John wrote: »

What are the chances of Labour winning back Westminster seats in Scotland? That's what will determine what Starmer might agree to post 2022 election when he is elected PM. If Scotland is a lost cause to both Labour and Tories then, a ref is inevitable.

Very unlikely unless they change position on independence. On the day the latest poll shows 55% for independence, the Labour group in Scotland say this

https://twitter.com/TheHubScot/status/1296100698829066240

eire4

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Very unlikely unless they change position on independence. On the day the latest poll shows 55% for independence, the Labour group in Scotland say this

https://twitter.com/TheHubScot/status/1296100698829066240

That should ensure they take another beating next May I would think given current trends.

Peregrinus

pixelburp wrote: »

Seems like the only thing that might arrest the now constant majority support for Independence would be the first proper post CoVid budgets. Across the world those are going to make the circa 2008 equivalents seem positively generous in comparison; the desire for a free Scotland might quickly be tempered by emptier coffers in Hollyrood; suddenly the bosom of Westminster may not feel so unwanted. Cos otherwise? Barring a wipeout at the 2021 elections it must surely be a question of when, not if.

Mmm. It's not straightforward, The formula which determines Westerminster funding in Scotland essentially fixes it in relation to Westminster spending in the rest of the UK. And of course Westminister will have its own financial challenges. So, as Westminster curtails spending in the rest of the UK, the subvention to Scotland will fall and the Scottish government will not be slow to point out (a) that the squeeze in Scotland spending is the outcome of choices made by and in Westminster and (b) this illustrates the dependence on transfers from Westminster is not a good place for Scotland to be in (and (c) transfers from Westminster are not dependable; better for Scotland to keep the revenue raised in Scotland in the first place).

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mmm. It's not straightforward, The formula which determines Westerminster funding in Scotland essentially fixes it in relation to Westminster spending in the rest of the UK. And of course Westminister will have its own financial challenges. So, as Westminster curtails spending in the rest of the UK, the subvention to Scotland will fall and the Scottish government will not be slow to point out (a) that the squeeze in Scotland spending is the outcome of choices made by and in Westminster and (b) this illustrates the dependence on transfers from Westminster is not a good place for Scotland to be in (and (c) transfers from Westminster are not dependable; better for Scotland to keep the revenue raised in Scotland in the first place).

They can (and almost certainly will) blame Westminster, but the last time more revenue power was devolved it cost the Scots £100m https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50385954

bob mcbob

Aegir wrote: »

They can (and almost certainly will) blame Westminster, but the last time more revenue power was devolved it cost the Scots £100m https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50385954

Well that report was 10 months ago so it will be really easy for you to find examples of the blame.

In other news, the Tories understand that they can't win the argument so instead want to change the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/20/michael-gove-suggests-scots-living-rest-uk-could-vote-second/

I think that Gove could be a secret SNP member. Everything he touches - Brexit, Boris and Covid are only increasing support for independence.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Below standard posts (quip and insult) deleted.

Charles Babbage

bob mcbob wrote: »

Well that report was 10 months ago so it will be really easy for you to find examples of the blame.

In other news, the Tories understand that they can't win the argument so instead want to change the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/20/michael-gove-suggests-scots-living-rest-uk-could-vote-second/

I think that Gove could be a secret SNP member. Everything he touches - Brexit, Boris and Covid are only increasing support for independence.

The question of who can vote is open for discussion. People abroad could vote for the Brexit referendum as they can in a Westminster election. This debate also has interesting implications for a NI border poll. Can NI persons not living there vote in that referendum?

Water John

So if Scottish citizens south of the border can vote in a ref, I presume English citizens living in Scotland cannot.

bob mcbob

Water John wrote: »

So if Scottish citizens south of the border can vote in a ref, I presume English citizens living in Scotland cannot.

the rules for the first vote were -

British citizens who were resident in Scotland;
Citizens of other Commonwealth countries who were resident in Scotland;
Citizens of other European Union countries who were resident in Scotland;
Members of the House of Lords who were resident in Scotland;
Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK or overseas in the British Armed Forces or with Her Majesty's Government who were registered to vote in Scotland.

The key here is "resident in Scotland"

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

This debate also has interesting implications for a NI border poll. Can NI persons not living there vote in that referendum?

And can the Scots, Jamaicans and French living there vote?

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1296727992941465601


If this is the case, then it seems the Tories have calculated they need to meet this head on rather than allow the numbers to climb upwards.

From the unionist point of view, I think it makes sense to tackle it within the next two years, while the global economy is still weakened in the aftermath of the pandemic. You would think most undecided Scots would be less likely to embrace a change if the economics are still fragile?

A Dub in Glasgo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The question of who can vote is open for discussion. People abroad could vote for the Brexit referendum as they can in a Westminster election. This debate also has interesting implications for a NI border poll. Can NI persons not living there vote in that referendum?

The Scottish independence movement has always been about civic nationalism rather than blood & soil ethnic nationalism which is why the criteria for voting in the 2014 referendum was all about residency

Arguably, this civic nationalism was one of the reasons the No vote won as the majority of Scots resident in Scotland voted for independence and the majority of non Scots resident in Scotland voted against

Peregrinus

There's also the practical problem that there is no such thing as a Scottish citizen, and the information on the electoral register doesn't tell you anything about where a citizen was born or where their parents were born. So if you wanted to identify a class of persons entitled to vote on teh basis of a connection (by birth or descent) with Scotland, you'd need to assemble a new register of qualified voters, and people would have to prove their entitlement to be on the register by producing birth certificates or other relevant records. That would (a) be expensive; (b) take time; (c) lead to poor representation as qualified people failed or neglected to jump through the hoops to get their names on the register and (d) lead to accusations that you were trying to rig the result by selecting the electorate.

"Residence in Scotland" is an easy criterion to adopt since the register of electors already has info about where you live, and it;s an easy one to justify since it's people who live in Scotland, regardless of where they were born or who their parents were, who would be most immediately and most profoundly affected by Scottish secession.

There's one further consideration. Suppose, hypothetically, that a majority of voters actually resident in Scotland voted to stick with the union, but the participation of expatriate Scots tipped the balance the other way. Would it be acceptable to remove from the union a country, a majority of whose actual resident population had voted to remain in it? I think most people - and certainly most unionists - would see that as highly objectionable.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's also the practical problem that there is no such thing as a Scottish citizen, and the information on the electoral register doesn't tell you anything about where a citizen was born or where their parents were born. So if you wanted to identify a class of persons entitled to vote on teh basis of a connection (by birth or descent) with Scotland, you'd need to assemble a new register of qualified voters, and people would have to prove their entitlement to be on the register by producing birth certificates or other relevant records. That would (a) be expensive; (b) take time; (c) lead to poor representation as qualified people failed or neglected to jump through the hoops to get their names on the register and (d) lead to accusations that you were trying to rig the result by selecting the electorate.

"Residence in Scotland" is an easy criterion to adopt since the register of electors already has info about where you live, and it;s an easy one to justify since it's people who live in Scotland, regardless of where they were born or who their parents were, who would be most immediately and most profoundly affected by Scottish secession.

There's one further consideration. Suppose, hypothetically, that a majority of voters actually resident in Scotland voted to stick with the union, but the participation of expatriate Scots tipped the balance the other way. Would it be acceptable to remove from the union a country, a majority of whose actual resident population had voted to remain in it? I think most people - and certainly most unionists - would see that as highly objectionable.

Another option would be to open the vote to all residents and qualified voters in a Westminster election throughput the whole of the UK to vote.

I didn't think so.

A Dub in Glasgo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Another option would be to open the vote to all residents and qualified voters in a Westminster election throughput the whole of the UK to vote.

Why would you think that would be a reasonable way forward?

Sam Russell

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Why would you think that would be a reasonable way forward?

I don't and I said I didn't.

It is as daft as extending votes to 'Scottish' voters not resident in Scotland. Equally, if extending the vote to 'Scottish' voters not resident in Scotland, does that imply denying votes to 'Non-Scottish' voters resident in Scotland.

An utterly daft proposal - perhaps they could design an algorithm to decide who can vote for Scottish independence.

bob mcbob

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1296727992941465601


If this is the case, then it seems the Tories have calculated they need to meet this head on rather than allow the numbers to climb upwards.

From the unionist point of view, I think it makes sense to tackle it within the next two years, while the global economy is still weakened in the aftermath of the pandemic. You would think most undecided Scots would be less likely to embrace a change if the economics are still fragile?

I am not sure you got this. The National is a pro-independence paper.
I think this was pointing out how desperate (panic stricken?) Gove is that he is engaging with these people to try and save the Union.

The article below says it more explicitly

Opinion: Kevin McKenna: So it's Gove, Galloway and McConnell? No wonder the Union is finished

Mr Gove, unofficial minister for the Union Jack in Boris Johnson’s hard-right cabinet, has thus been seeking cross-party allies for what is likely to be Britain’s last imperial battle. According to the London Times, he has already held discussions with Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale (Jack when he was a Socialist) and Danny Alexander, the former Liberal-Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury.


https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18668517.opinion-kevin-mckenna-michael-gove-george-galloway-jack-mcconnell-danny-alexander-no-wonder-union-finished/

Mr.Nice Guy

bob mcbob wrote: »

I am not sure you got this. The National is a pro-independence paper.
I think this was pointing out how desperate (panic stricken?) Gove is that he is engaging with these people to try and save the Union.

The article below says it more explicitly

Opinion: Kevin McKenna: So it's Gove, Galloway and McConnell? No wonder the Union is finished

Mr Gove, unofficial minister for the Union Jack in Boris Johnson’s hard-right cabinet, has thus been seeking cross-party allies for what is likely to be Britain’s last imperial battle. According to the London Times, he has already held discussions with Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale (Jack when he was a Socialist) and Danny Alexander, the former Liberal-Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury.


https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18668517.opinion-kevin-mckenna-michael-gove-george-galloway-jack-mcconnell-danny-alexander-no-wonder-union-finished/

I'm aware of that. My point was it would be better for the unionists to act now rather than continue to bury their heads in the sand and allow the numbers to keep creeping upwards.

I think the best card the unionists have right now is undecideds being wary about the economy. Seems to me that card is most useful in the immediate future with Covid-19 still looming large.

ancapailldorcha

Below standard post deleted. Enough of the sarcasm please.

An Claidheamh

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Below standard post deleted. Enough of the sarcasm please.

It’s obnoxious childish comments like that, that no doubt cause the Scots to view unionists as hooligan types with Union Jack towels.

For my two cents, it’s hard for the UK government to send anyone “up” to Scotland that won’t be ridiculed as an Uncle Tom, mercenary or just a nobody, but you would at least expect some cop on in terms of choice.

Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

Scottish independence is inevitable regardless.

listermint

An Claidheamh wrote: »

It’s obnoxious childish comments like that, that no doubt cause the Scots to view unionists as hooligan types with Union Jack towels.

For my two cents, it’s hard for the UK government to send anyone “up” to Scotland that won’t be ridiculed as an Uncle Tom, mercenary or just a nobody, but you would at least expect some cop on in terms of choice.

Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

Scottish independence is inevitable regardless.

oh excellent, I see my comment which was not obnoxious or sarcastic was taken completely out of context again for a second time.

Btw i posted earlier saying that Sturgeon has drafted a proposal for Indy ref in 2021. I was confused why it was not picked up in here, and still hasnt been. A bit slow to the party it seems.

None of my comments remotely equate to what this poster said above nor what any other users of the site 'took' out of them.

Anyway has anyone else actually seen Sturgeons proposals today!.. ???

pixelburp

There was another comment that I think the user was referring to, which used a derogatory nickname for Nichola Sturgeon.

As to the topic. The die is cast now, it's out in the open. Though given CoVid shouldn't be too large a topic in people's mouthes until after the 2021 elections. And while the SNP reign uncontested it'd be a tad foolish for themselves to get too deep into the topic. It's at least confirmed as something with a timeline now

Water John

NS set out her Programme of Govn't today in Holyrood. She said the Indy Ref details would be outlined in the Spring.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/01/nicola-sturgeon-vows-to-set-out-independence-vote-plans-by-next-spring