Scottish independence

eire4

Water John wrote: »

NS set out her Programme of Govn't today in Holyrood. She said the Indy Ref details would be outlined in the Spring.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/01/nicola-sturgeon-vows-to-set-out-independence-vote-plans-by-next-spring

Some ambitious and far reaching proposals there. But ultimately next May is all about getting a mandate for a new independence referendum more then anything else I think.

listermint

eire4 wrote: »

Some ambitious and far reaching proposals there. But ultimately next May is all about getting a mandate for a new independence referendum more then anything else I think.

first few months of 2021 should tell us exactly which way the wind blows i would think.

Peregrinus

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think the best card the unionists have right now is undecideds being wary about the economy. Seems to me that card is most useful in the immediate future with Covid-19 still looming large.

It's a card that unionists who are also Brexit supporters will find hard to play, though, in the early months of 2021, when the economic impact of Brexit is scything through Britain. They'll be vulnerable to the accusation that they are clearly not that concerned about economic wellbeing.

For that reasons, I think the pro-union campaign needs to be fronted by figures who are pro-union but also anti-Brexit, and who are already respected in Scotland. I'm open to correction, but I think that's a fairly small pool.

An Claidheamh

listermint wrote: »

oh excellent, I see my comment which was not obnoxious or sarcastic was taken completely out of context again for a second time.

Btw i posted earlier saying that Sturgeon has drafted a proposal for Indy ref in 2021. I was confused why it was not picked up in here, and still hasnt been. A bit slow to the party it seems.

None of my comments remotely equate to what this poster said above nor what any other users of the site 'took' out of them.

Anyway has anyone else actually seen Sturgeons proposals today!.. ???

Listermint, I was referring to another posters comment that was removed.

Mr.Nice Guy

Interesting poll findings on Sky News.

https://twitter.com/JonTonge/status/1302544237754548226


51% of English want Wales to stay vs 42% that want them to go; but 46% of English want Scotland to stay versus 47% who want them to go. And just 26% of English want NI to stay in the UK versus 66% who want them to go.

Unionists in NI don't seem to care much about these sorts of results but I wonder whether it will make those in Scotland reflect on what sort of future they want.

bob mcbob

Latest poll says that support for independence is now at 56% according to a poll produced by the UK Government

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18710533.scottish-independence-tories-must-come-clean-new-poll-puts-support-56/

Mr.Nice Guy

There was a Survation poll the other day showing 53% support for independence, which is the 7th poll in a row showing it to be the majority view.

In other news, Ewan McGregor has revealed he is now backing independence.

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1304828762291404801

A Dub in Glasgo

The Survation one was up from 50% from the previous Survation poll earlier in the year

Water John

The direction the trend is going is key. Does anyone do an aggregate of the various polls about Scottish Indy?

A Dub in Glasgo

Wikipedia has a good page on it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling

Water John

With that sort of trending, Sturgeon is right to make the next election an Ind Ref and push on then for the real one.

Water John

This is an interesting analysis. It argues that it's competence by Sturgeon in dealing with Covid compared to the incompetence of Johnson is what's moving the needle;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/13/covid-crisis-changing-minds-scottish-independence

A Dub in Glasgo

The unionist paper 'The Herald' in Scotland had an online poll about the BBC axing the COVID-19 brief. The unionist politicians who lobbied the BBC are totally mis-reading the mood of the public in Scotland

Mr.Nice Guy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Unionists in NI don't seem to care much about these sorts of results

They have to care, they consider them their brethren, tied through blood and history. Yet only 26% want them to stay.

Imagine if the other EU countries were asked if they wanted the Irish to stay part of the EU and 66% said no, we'd be pretty affronted by that and there is little to no history between us and the rest of Europe.

A Dub in Glasgo

The Internal Market Bill is a lot more than the current headline grabber of breaking the Withdrawal Agreement, it is all about limiting and curtailing the powers of the devolved settlements without going to the extent of eliminating them

Here is a video from a few years ago predicting what will happen

https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1305791916995477504


and here is a video today of Alyn Smith of the SNP outlining what the IMB will actually do

https://twitter.com/olafdoesstuff/status/1305906537114808320

serfboard

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Internal Market Bill is [also] about limiting and curtailing the powers of the devolved settlements without going to the extent of eliminating them.

Hadn’t thought of that but knowing Cummings et al it may well be an “unfortunate” “unforeseen” consequence of the bill.

pixelburp

Never thought of the IM bill from the point of view of the devolved governments, but one wonders if this is just another bullet in the chamber of the pro-Independence movement?

Any sign of the existing self-governance being eroded by an outside entity and cynical legislation is surely going to rattle the Undecideds and Soft-Nos of Scotland? Those folk hitherto happy with the arrangement thus far because Hollyrood was seen as a sufficient halfway house. Find it hard to imagine those demographics simply accepting this lessening - assuming the consequences are properly advertised in the Scottish press & public discourse.

pixelburp

pixelburp wrote: »

Never thought of the IM bill from the point of view of the devolved governments, but one wonders if this is just another bullet in the chamber of the pro-Independence movement?

Any sign of the existing self-governance being eroded by an outside entity and cynical legislation is surely going to rattle the Undecideds and Soft-Nos of Scotland? Those folk hitherto happy with the arrangement thus far because Hollyrood was seen as a sufficient halfway house. Find it hard to imagine those demographics simply accepting this lessening - assuming the consequences are properly advertised in the Scottish press & public discourse.

I haven't read the bill in full so I don't know the detail.

self governance is limited already as the devolved regions have to accept EU standards. When these EU standards are removed, it can't be up to each region to set its own independently, there needs to be a central body coordinating this.

You could argue that it is not in Scotland or Wales interests to diverge too much, otherwise it will push up prices for what are smaller markets. I can see why they would want to have significant input though, especially when it comes to negotiating trade deals and this bill does seem to be overly aggressive in that regard.

There needs to be a pragmatic solution rather than a political one and unfortunately, all four regions are more concerned with politics than pragmatism.

Sam Russell

pixelburp wrote: »

Never thought of the IM bill from the point of view of the devolved governments, but one wonders if this is just another bullet in the chamber of the pro-Independence movement?

Any sign of the existing self-governance being eroded by an outside entity and cynical legislation is surely going to rattle the Undecideds and Soft-Nos of Scotland? Those folk hitherto happy with the arrangement thus far because Hollyrood was seen as a sufficient halfway house. Find it hard to imagine those demographics simply accepting this lessening - assuming the consequences are properly advertised in the Scottish press & public discourse.

This a variation on the old 'West Lothian Question'.

It centres on the opinion among English MPs that they are the assembly for England and that non-English MPs should have no hand act or part in any matter that solely applies to England.

Of course, the logic of this is to set up an English Assembly with similar powers to the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, with a distinct set of elected assembly members, and probably locate the assembly in Manchester.

Of course, that would be seen as a dilution of English sovereignty. Hmmmmm.....

Water John

'all four regions are more concerned with politics than pragmatism.' Quote
Don't agree with that generalisation. It could certainly be said about the Tories and DUP but I really don't see it as an overriding factor in any other political party.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

'all four regions are more concerned with politics than pragmatism.' Quote
Don't agree with that generalisation. It could certainly be said about the Tories and DUP but I really don't see it as an overriding factor in any other political party.

I think you might include the SNP in that as well.

Water John

No, I think any objective analysis would support me. Of course the SNP have a focus on an independent Scotland but they have not used all situations with the single aim of furthering that.
I would contrast that with the DUP who would commit kamikazee on NI to further their own beliefs.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

No, I think any objective analysis would support me. Of course the SNP have a focus on an independent Scotland but they have not used all situations with the single aim of furthering that.
I would contrast that with the DUP who would commit kamikazee on NI to further their own beliefs.

Well, yes about the DUP, but the SNP want a better Scotland by getting independence. Consequently they would support any move that improves their say in Scottish affairs and oppose any move to diminish their political position.

The DUP do not want independence, or unification with Ireland, and would adopt a scorched earth policy to prevent any type of move that might end up with such a result, even if it ends up with significant self harm.

They do not want their 'cake and eat it', they want to prevent the NI Nationalists, and the people of Ireland having any cake at all, and they will do anything at any cost to achieve that.

fly_agaric

I wonder (I don't know), has it been an awful shock to the system how independently the UK regions have been able to act in their response to the pandemic? They essentially seem to ignore Boris, Conservatives and Westminister on points if they so choose. It surprised me as an outsider anyway.

Of course I think it was Labour that introduced devolution/regional assemblies anyway. Perhaps the NI version of it is a bit different in that something external (GFA) underpins it as far as I understand.

Did the Conservatives ever had any time for it (devolution) as a policy?
Given the power they have in the UK with such a large majority they probably feel they can reduce it now if they want.

joe40

joe40 wrote: »

Scotland is still very divided according to sectarian lines, similar to Northern Ireland. The sort of secterianism the republic has largely left behind is still alive and well in Scotland.
Uniionist supporting scots would have zero affinity with Ireland. All the Gaelic stuff would mean very little.

Then there is something for everyone in the audience of NI. So many people, particulary ROI "Free State" Shinners, seem to forget that at least half the population of NI identifies as British, to an extent that make Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson look like bleeding heart liberals.
Having an independent Scotland with a good chunk of Protestants and Presbyterians in it would assauge their fears somewhat.

Peregrinus

fly_agaric wrote: »

I wonder (I don't know), has it been an awful shock to the system how independently the UK regions have been able to act in their response to the pandemic? They essentially seem to ignore Boris, Conservatives and Westminister on points if they so choose. It surprised me as an outsider anyway.

Of course I think it was Labour that introduced devolution/regional assemblies anyway. Perhaps the NI version of it is a bit different in that something external (GFA) underpins it as far as I understand.

Did the Conservatives ever had any time for it (devolution) as a policy?
Given the power they have in the UK with such a large majority they probably feel they can reduce it now if they want.

Well, they are trying to.

And, on the point that you hadn't appreciated how much the devolved governments actually control - you are not alone. You hadn't appreciated it, I suspect, because your impressions of the UK and its governance are largely formed by consuming the London-based media, which is very English in outlook. And England is basically not interested in, and not very aware of, what goes on in other countries within the UK, and is not interested in how devolved governments work and how they relate to Westminster, becausae none of that is relevant to England, which doesn't have a devolved government. Basically, the English don't notice this, and neither do the English-centred media.

fly_agaric

Peregrinus wrote: »

And, on the point that you hadn't appreciated how much the devolved governments actually control - you are not alone. You hadn't appreciated it, I suspect, because your impressions of the UK and its governance are largely formed by consuming the London-based media, which is very English in outlook. And England is basically not interested in, and not very aware of, what goes on in other countries within the UK, and is not interested in how devolved governments work and how they relate to Westminster, becausae none of that is relevant to England, which doesn't have a devolved government. Basically, the English don't notice this, and neither do the English-centred media.

Whatever about me as an outsider who never lived there, it is not great if the high level Conservative politicians and the PM are not well up on where the powers (of the devolved assemblies) start and end.

First Up

I completely understand the emotional argument for Scottish independence, especially in the face of extreme Brexiteers and Toryism.

However rational analysis shows that Scotland is better off in the UK; the UK is better off with Scotland moderating English nationalism and Ireland would be better off dealing with a seamless and functional UK than with a fragmented island next door and on our route to the continent.

The ideal outcome would be Scotland/SNP/Sturgeon talking England down from the ledge and helping re-shape the UK (and especially England) as a country that can cope with the modern world.

That shouldn't (and won't) stop Scotland rejoicing in giving the charioteers a good thrashing in Murrayfield, Twickenham or Hampden Park.

pixelburp

First Up wrote: »

I completely understand the emotional argument for Scottish independence, especially in the face of extreme Brexiteers and Toryism.

However rational analysis shows that Scotland is better off in the UK; the UK is better off with Scotland moderating English nationalism and Ireland would be better off dealing with a seamless and functional UK than with a fragmented island next door and on our route to the continent.

The ideal outcome would be Scotland/SNP/Sturgeon talking England down from the ledge and helping re-shape the UK (and especially England) as a country that can cope with the modern world.

That shouldn't (and won't) stop Scotland rejoicing in giving the charioteers a good thrashing in Murrayfield, Twickenham or Hampden Park.

I don't see any real evidence of moderation at the present time, let alone in the future. Were that true then all the worse twists of Brexit would have been avoided thanks to Scottish temperance. Rather, English nationailsm seems to have taken over Westminster regardless how many sober speeches have been given by SNP MPs. The horse has arguably bolted and Scotland needs to decide where its future lies; with an increasingly histrionic London, or charting its own, admittedly more unknown future.

First Up

pixelburp wrote:

I don't see any real evidence of moderation at the present time, let alone in the future. Were that true then all the worse twists of Brexit would have been avoided thanks to Scottish temperance. Rather, English nationailsm seems to have taken over Westminster regardless how many sober speeches have been given by SNP MPs.

Fair point but I don't think that has fully run its course yet.