Scottish independence

A Dub in Glasgo

There is a case winging its way through the courts. Interestingly enough, the Scottish Government has been fillabusting in an attempt to deplete the funds of the person bringing the case

https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/pas30/

Sam Russell

Markcheese wrote: »

From an independence point of view brexit really has set the ground rules ... Not a binding poll ? No prob it's the will of the people ...
Only 51 % voted for change , no prob - will of the people ...
We need a second vote - nope exit means exit ..
Would the SNP be able to organize a poll against westminsters wishes , ala catalonia , I doubt the uk government would come down on it the way the the gaurdia civil did , but they couldn't "allow" it either ..

The UK have a problem which is basically constitutional - and it is summed up by the West Lothian Question. (Google it)

The Westminster Parliament is the parliament for the whole of the UK, but is also assembly/parliament for the (yet to be devolved ) English Assembly. In other words, the English MPs believe that they, they alone, should decide matters that would normally be decided by a devolved assembly for England, and MPs for parts of the UK that are devolved should not be allowed to contribute or vote on such matters.

Now if this logic were to be continued to its logical conclusion, the Scottish MPs in Westminster, and they alone, should decide whether Scotland should/could hold an Indy Ref 2.

Why should English MPs decide on a referendum that they themselves would not be qualified/allowed to vote in?

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The UK have a problem which is basically constitutional - and it is summed up by the West Lothian Question.

The good people of West Lothian vote SNP.

The MP's for Livingston, and Linlithgow and East Falkirk have for all practical purposes no say in Westminster, thanks to being in the third party in a two party system.

And since the start of Brexit Westminster has been using Henry the Eight's laws to clawback power from the devolved assemblies.

Markcheese

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The good people of West Lothian vote SNP.

The MP's for Livingston, and Linlithgow and East Falkirk have for all practical purposes no say in Westminster, thanks to being in the third party in a two party system.

And since the start of Brexit Westminster has been using Henry the Eight's laws to clawback power from the devolved assemblies.

How do you mean ? ( The henry the eights bit )

Mr.Nice Guy

Gordon Brown said today he thinks if there's a second referendum No will win but it will be 'a hard battle'.

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1335524796382269440

Brown keeps pushing the view that there needs to be more powers for the UK regions and centralisation isn't working, but from a Tory viewpoint they will presumably feel it's working very nicely for them. I don't know where he is going to get support for this concept if there is a referendum in the near future. Gove possibly, but even then I'm not sure he'd endorse freeing up more powers as a way to combat the support for independence. It would be a hard sell to convince Scottish voters that greater regional autonomy is possible given this was already promised in 'The Vow' in 2014.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The good people of West Lothian vote SNP.

The MP's for Livingston, and Linlithgow and East Falkirk have for all practical purposes no say in Westminster, thanks to being in the third party in a two party system.

And since the start of Brexit Westminster has been using Henry the Eight's laws to clawback power from the devolved assemblies.

The 'West Lothian Question' has nothing to do with the people of West Lothian. It matters not a jot how they voted. The question is a constitutional question about devolution - and results from England not being devolved and English MPs consider themselves, and themselves alone, to be the devolved assembly for England. The English MPs want to exclude non=English MPs voting on English matters. he solution is either an English Assembly, or a number of English regional Assemblies - say nine.

The Henry the Eighth powers relate to Ministers granting themselves powers without reference to the HoC - another power grab.

A Dub in Glasgo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Gordon Brown said today he thinks if there's a second referendum No will win but it will be 'a hard battle'.

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1335524796382269440

Brown keeps pushing the view that there needs to be more powers for the UK regions and centralisation isn't working, but from a Tory viewpoint they will presumably feel it's working very nicely for them. I don't know where he is going to get support for this concept if there is a referendum in the near future. Gove possibly, but even then I'm not sure he'd endorse freeing up more powers as a way to combat the support for independence. It would be a hard sell to convince Scottish voters that greater regional autonomy is possible given this was already promised in 'The Vow' in 2014.

They wheeled out Brown just before the 2014 referendum with his promise that Scotland would be one of the most federal nations should they vote No

The Smith Commission was set up after the referendum to look at what powers should be transferred to the Scottish Parliament. This is how the Labour Party responded

https://twitter.com/MajorMcBloodnok/status/1335209233508409347

breezy1985

If you look at Brexit the 2 big issues are a disgruntled North and southern coastline who think that coalmines and fishing are still a thing and add to that a complete lack of understanding of NI in Westminster and a sense of poverty and being forgotten in Wales and it becomes clear they the only way to save the UK is federalism

A Dub in Glasgo

This Tory govt will never introduce federalism, that ship is well and truly gone. It is similar to Home Rule for Ireland that was promised but never quite got there

breezy1985

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This Tory govt will never introduce federalism, that ship is well and truly gone. It is similar to Home Rule for Ireland that was promised but never quite got there

I don't expect it to ever happen and to be honest I don't expect the Tory's to do anything that would be the same rational decision at this point

Sam Russell

Since 1945, Labour has held, typically, 40 to 50 seats in Scotland and about 40% plus of the votes. This has been the powerhouse of the Labour UK party, together with the Northern 'Red Wall' and the South Wales mining valleys.

If Labour had backed IndyRef1, then those Westminster seats would be gone, but they have been gone anyway because they did not back IndyRef1. They could have supported it and kept their Scottish support, and perhaps controlled Scotland.

I think that ship has sailed as well.

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

Since 1945, Labour has held, typically, 40 to 50 seats in Scotland and about 40% plus of the votes. This has been the powerhouse of the Labour UK party, together with the Northern 'Red Wall' and the South Wales mining valleys.

If Labour had backed IndyRef1, then those Westminster seats would be gone, but they have been gone anyway because they did not back IndyRef1. They could have supported it and kept their Scottish support, and perhaps controlled Scotland.

I think that ship has sailed as well.

They couldn't back it and then do nothing about independence once in power again. One big problem labour have is that the SNP do what they are trying to do but much better. A lot of young left wing people across the UK look up to Sturgeon and would love someone like her to vote for

Sam Russell

breezy1985 wrote: »

They couldn't back it and then do nothing about independence once in power again. One big problem labour have is that the SNP do what they are trying to do but much better. A lot of young left wing people across the UK look up to Sturgeon and would love someone like her to vote for

I assume by Labour backing IndyRef1, it would be carried. The Independence would happen, negotiated by the Tories. Sturgeon was not the leader then, it was Salmond.

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

I assume by Labour backing IndyRef1, it would be carried. The Independence would happen, negotiated by the Tories. Sturgeon was not the leader then, it was Salmond.

Ya I agree it would have helped pass it. I was just looking at the situation if labour backed it and it failed but in reality it was lose lose for them

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The 'West Lothian Question' has nothing to do with the people of West Lothian. It matters not a jot how they voted. The question is a constitutional question about devolution - and results from England not being devolved and English MPs consider themselves, and themselves alone, to be the devolved assembly for England. The English MPs want to exclude non=English MPs voting on English matters. he solution is either an English Assembly, or a number of English regional Assemblies - say nine.

The Henry the Eighth powers relate to Ministers granting themselves powers without reference to the HoC - another power grab.

Not too long ago the big three parties got just one MP each from Scotland.

In theory Scottish MP's have more say in England than visa-versa.

In practice they don't.

Water John

Starmer, who I think is honourable, will have to put his deal on the table, spelt out fully, no commission or any other nonsense. Then after the next GE he will still likely have to allow a 2nd Indy Ref. He has a lot of ground to make up for poor Lb actions in the past. That horse may actually have bolted too.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not too long ago the big three parties got just one MP each from Scotland.

In theory Scottish MP's have more say in England than visa-versa.

In practice they don't.

How can that be? Tere are a lot mre English MPs.

There are at present 650 Westminster Parliamentary constituencies in the UK, made up of 533 in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

How can that be? Tere are a lot mre English MPs.

Scottish MPs get to vote for laws that don't apply to Scotland so they are often accused of this by English MPs but it's not true

Capt'n Midnight

Markcheese wrote: »

How do you mean ? ( The henry the eights bit )

Statute of Proclamations 1539 as applied to the Great Repeal Bill AKA European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018

Westminster runs by precedent and tradition.

The current crew in charge are ignoring tradition, see the time when JRM used a quorum of three people to get the Privy Council to get Liz to prorogue parliament.

ANY legal precedent will be used to their advantage.

Mr.Nice Guy

Seems Gordon Brown will be having an active role in the movement against independence.

https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1337090943552548865

His contribution was useful to the unionist cause in 2014 but I can't imagine it will be as effective this time around. It will be a very different Britain in 2021 and there's nothing to indicate the Tories will go for the kind of federal arrangement Brown has championed.

Water John

Dragging out Gordon Brown again. Fool me once...
Did I see that NI would be automatically back into the EU if it votes for a UI. Shouldn't similar apply to Scotland if they vote to leave UK?

pixelburp

Maybe they can trot out the 'aul Devo Max again, if they're replaying the greatest hits. Gordon Brown, yikes. Signs of hubris and ignorance at how different the landscape is thus time? Then again, this is a Labour initiative so they can promise Ming Flanagan to head the taskforce given Labour aren't in power (and no matter how bad Brexit seems to be, I wouldn't bet against another Tory government).

serfboard

pixelburp wrote: »

Gordon Brown, yikes. Signs of hubris and ignorance at how different the landscape is thus time? Then again, this is a Labour initiative

A Labour internal talking shop which will be ignored by everyone else.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

Dragging out Gordon Brown again. Fool me once...
Did I see that NI would be automatically back into the EU if it votes for a UI. Shouldn't similar apply to Scotland if they vote to leave UK?

Well, if Scotland left the UK to join an EU member then they would.

The circumstances are completely different tbf.

Water John

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, if Scotland left the UK to join an EU member then they would.

The circumstances are completely different tbf.

We'll form the Celtic Federation.

Larbre34

Water John wrote: »

We'll form the Celtic Federation.

That'll doubly upset the Sevco fans.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

Dragging out Gordon Brown again. Fool me once...
Did I see that NI would be automatically back into the EU if it votes for a UI. Shouldn't similar apply to Scotland if they vote to leave UK?

A UI would mean one country. Probably with some autonomy like the German states or the Italian regions which are linguistically and culturally different. Or we could go full Belgium.

The vast majority of people in NI are entitled to an EU passport so are de-facto EU citizens.

Besides the precedent was set when East Germany was allowed in.

Scotland is a different country. Unless we do a Dalriada because the Scoti came from NI but the Spanish might consider that a wee bit too much.


I'll say it again. Even if Scotland can't get EU membership it should be a shoe in for EFTA membership so an independent Scotland wouldn't be on WTO terms. There's a good chance Scotland would get lots of things grandfathered in from both the UK (like we got , CTA, pensions, reciprocal rights ) and the EU (some UK exemptions)

Peregrinus

Water John wrote: »

Did I see that NI would be automatically back into the EU if it votes for a UI. Shouldn't similar apply to Scotland if they vote to leave UK?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, if Scotland left the UK to join an EU member then they would.

Nope. If NI becomes part of Ireland (the state) then it is part of a state which is a member of the EU. NI being reabsorbed into the EU is an automatic consequences of this. This is exactly what happened, when the former East Germany became part of the Federal Republic, which was already a member state.

But if Scotland leaves the UK it isn't becoming part of an existing member state. It will become a new state all on its own. That state can they apply for membership of the European Union, but membership will be neither automatic nor immediate.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nope. If NI becomes part of Ireland (the state) then it is part of a state which is a member of the EU. NI being reabsorbed into the EU is an automatic consequences of this. This is exactly what happened, when the former East Germany became part of the Federal Republic, which was already a member state.

But if Scotland leaves the UK it isn't becoming part of an existing member state. It will become a new state all on its own. That state can they apply for membership of the European Union, but membership will be neither automatic nor immediate.

Didn't I say that? :P

---

As it happens, the technicalities surrounding German reunification are fascinating.

East Germany didn't technically rejoin the West. The East German state ceased to exist and the former Lander as they were, all rejoined as separate states. And thus the West expanded rather than have another country join it to ensure no complications with membership of the EC etc. ie. The current German state is NOT a successor State but a continuation of the previous state, albeit an expanded one.

Ireland has gotten a declaration that NI will automatically join the EU on reunification. No ifs or buts. Cracking piece of diplomacy from Kenny and Co.

Peregrinus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Didn't I say that? :P

So you did.