Scottish independence

rock22

Peregrinus wrote: »

.....

But, in the end, I don’t think it comes down to prosperity. Few countries have chosen independence on the back of a guarantee of prosperity, and yet many have chosen independence

i won't argue the other points, although I still stick to my position on the Euro ( all the countires you mentioned joined before the roll out of the actual Euro ) and I think Denmark is not the correct comparison ( a hypothetical comparison would be if Greenland was allowed join the EU against the wishes of Denmark - it wouldn't).

However, we agree about prosperity. So those arguing that the economic effects of Brexit will inevitably lead to independence is being too simplistic for me .

Either way, it is going to be a political decision, and firstly it has to be made in Scotland. Any result around 50-55% support, and you are back to a split country a la Brexit UK.

However, if support continues to grow in Scotland then of course independence will become unstoppable at some point not least because Westminster would not be in a position to continually deny a referendum.

First Up

If Scotland can extricate itself from the UK, re-joining the EU will be relatively straightforward because similar conditions are needed for both.

If Scotland applies for EU membership as a fully independent country in full control of it's own affairs, the EU will be well disposed and supportive.

Getting out of the UK will be the hard part and has to come first.

Peregrinus

rock22 wrote: »

i won't argue the other points, although I still stick to my position on the Euro ( all the countires you mentioned joined before the roll out of the actual Euro ) . . .

No they didn’t. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia all joined after the rollout of the actual euro. I honestly can’t see Scotland being treated differently from them, and I’m puzzled as to why you are convinced that it would be.

rock22 wrote: »

and I think Denmark is not the correct comparison ( a hypothetical comparison would be if Greenland was allowed join the EU against the wishes of Denmark - it wouldn't).

I don’t think that is the right comparison. I’m not suggesting that Scotland might remain within the UK and also rejoin the EU against the opposition of Westminster. I’m suggesting that, if Westminster wished to kill independence with maximal devolution, then it could grant Scotland as sufficient degree of legislative and administrative autonomy that it could rejoin the EU while England remains out. If Scotland went ahead and rejoined in that circumstance, it would not be rejoining “against the wishes of Westminster”, since the whole selling-point of the new devolution settlements would be that it allowed Scotland to do this.

rock22 wrote: »

However, we agree about prosperity. So those arguing that the economic effects of Brexit will inevitably lead to independence is being too simplistic for me.

I agree. I don’t think that the “Brexit › Scottish Independence” argument simply depends on the adverse economic effects, though. There’s also the political effects. The Scots were persuaded to support the union in 2014 by the argument, among others, that this would keep them in the EU. Westminster turned around and then took them out of the EU. The lessons from this are (1) Westminster cannot be trusted; (2) Scotland will never control of its own destiny so long as it remains subject to Westminster; (3) you can think of a few more yourself, I don’t doubt. The fact that Brexit will be economically disadvantageous to Scotland may help to drive the lessons home with particular force, but they are political lessons, not economic opportunity costs.

rock22 wrote: »

Either way, it is going to be a political decision, and firstly it has to be made in Scotland. Any result around 50-55% support, and you are back to a split country a la Brexit UK.

That cuts both ways, though. A 50-55% result in favour of the union also leaves you with a split Scotland, and far from a consensus on remaining in the union, so you don’t settle the issue “for a generation”. (And that, of course, is more or less where we have been since 2014, which produced a 55% result in favour of the union. So maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that the independence question has raised its head again so soon.)

It might be nice if Scotland had a broad consensus to accept remaining in the union, or a broad consensus to seek independence. But the fact that it doesn’t is not an argument in favour of remaining in the union.

rock22 wrote: »

However, if support continues to grow in Scotland then of course independence will become unstoppable at some point not least because Westminster would not be in a position to continually deny a referendum.

Yes. I think continued growth in the pro-independence majority will do two things - first, make it more difficult for Westminster to refuse a referendum. Secondly, improve the chances of that referendum producing a result that starts to look like the makings of a consensus.

Therefore Westminster’s strategy should be to defuse the concerns that give rise to support for independence. Therefore — if you assume that Westminster attaches any value to maintaining the union, which it may not — using the Brexit referendum knife-edge outcome as an excuse for pursuing hard Brexit for all parts of the UK was an astonishingly stupid thing to do.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

I’m suggesting that, if Westminster wished to kill independence with maximal devolution, then it could grant Scotland as sufficient degree of legislative and administrative autonomy that it could rejoin the EU while England remains out.

That is contrary to both the spirit and letter of the EU and would trigger uproar.

RobMc59

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But see very little sympathy for the English people here who supported Brexit.

The term "Little Englanders", that they want to get rid of "Johnny Foreigner" assertions that they are xenophobic, racists etc etc are common here.

But suddenly when it the Scots who supported Brexit we are talking about we need to have sympathy for them ?

All those revelling in the SNP should be careful what they wish for,it doesn't look like a Scotland in the EU intends any bonhomie towards similar sized potential rivals,wanting to be amongst the big boys at the top table. According to this link.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18976542.brexit-deal-scotland-very-different-course-westminster/

A Dub in Glasgo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But see very little sympathy for the English people here who supported Brexit.

The term "Little Englanders", that they want to get rid of "Johnny Foreigner" assertions that they are xenophobic, racists etc etc are common here.

But suddenly when it the Scots who supported Brexit we are talking about we need to have sympathy for them ?

Lochfyne Seafoods did not support Brexit. In fact, most of the processors and in shore fishing in Scotland did not support Breixt. The ones that did are the Tory families who run some of the major fishing out of Peterhead and the rest of Aberdeenshire. That is why every time a Tory came to Scotland to discuss fishing they went to Peterhead

The majority of people in Scotland did not support Brexit

Fr Tod Umptious

RobMc59 wrote: »

All those revelling in the SNP should be careful what they wish for,it doesn't look like a Scotland in the EU intends any bonhomie towards similar sized potential rivals,wanting to be amongst the big boys at the top table. According to this link.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18976542.brexit-deal-scotland-very-different-course-westminster/

I know it's going off topic going down the Scottish independence road and I apologise for that, but it's complete folly for Irish people to support an independent Scotland in the EU.

Scotland will be a competitor to Ireland in the EU, not some sort of a friend.

I've been saying that for years around here and will continue to say it.

tubercolossus

RobMc59 wrote: »

All those revelling in the SNP should be careful what they wish for,it doesn't look like a Scotland in the EU intends any bonhomie towards similar sized potential rivals,wanting to be amongst the big boys at the top table. According to this link.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18976542.brexit-deal-scotland-very-different-course-westminster/

I've read the piece. Can you quote me the part where it says what you say it says, please?

RobMc59

tubercolossus wrote: »

I've read the piece. Can you quote me the part where it says what you say it says, please?

If you think Scotland is going to be your new forever friend you're in for a shock.Have a look about what a seething Scotland has to say about other nations fishing in what it considers to be it's waters.it was only a few days ago Irish fishing vessels were forced to leave disputed UK waters by Scottish fishery vessels.

sondagefaux

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I know it's going off topic going down the Scottish independence road and I apologise for that, but it's complete folly for Irish people to support an independent Scotland in the EU.

Scotland will be a competitor to Ireland in the EU, not some sort of a friend.

I've been saying that for years around here and will continue to say it.

Whereas the UK outside of the EU will be a friend to Ireland?

The potential break-up of the state that has done the most harm to Ireland, continues to harm it, and will harm it in the future if it still exists, would be far more beneficial to Ireland than competition from Scotland might be harmful.

Ireland has coped very well with EU enlargement (bringing 13 new countries into the EU since 2004), I'm sure it can cope with Scotland rejoining the EU, this time as an independent state.

CelticRambler

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I know it's going off topic going down the Scottish independence road and I apologise for that, but it's complete folly for Irish people to support an independent Scotland in the EU.

Scotland will be a competitor to Ireland in the EU, not some sort of a friend.

I've been saying that for years around here and will continue to say it.

Pure Brexiter thinking, is that. Scotland will be no more of a competitor to Ireland than the UK was. The EU fosters healthy competition between countries with similar interests, as it maximises the potential market and/or resources when dealing with other trading blocs. The UK had many "competitors" in the EU, but still rode the wave of pooled EU expertise raising the bar for the rest of the world in many, many different sectors.

Padre_Pio

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you think Scotland is going to be your new forever friend you're in for a shock.Have a look about what a seething Scotland has to say about other nations fishing in what it considers to be it's waters.it was only a few days ago Irish fishing vessels were forced to leave disputed UK waters by Scottish fishery vessels.

If the Scots are back in the EU then Irish (and other) boats are in their waters

sondagefaux

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you think Scotland is going to be your new forever friend you're in for a shock.Have a look about what a seething Scotland has to say about other nations fishing in what it considers to be it's waters.it was only a few days ago Irish fishing vessels were forced to leave disputed UK waters by Scottish fishery vessels.

Umm, you realise that if Scotland wants to join the EU it has to participate in the Common Fisheries Policy? And that Ireland will have a veto (along with every other existing EU member) on its entry to the EU?

In other words, Ireland will have far more leverage to push Scotland into accepting joint control over Rockall if Scotland becomes independent, plus guaranteed access to Scottish fishing waters, than if Scotland stays in the UK and outside the EU.

RobMc59

sondagefaux wrote: »

Umm, you realise that if Scotland wants to join the EU it has to participate in the Common Fisheries Policy? And that Ireland will have a veto (along with every other existing EU member) on its entry to the EU?

In other words, Ireland will have far more leverage to push Scotland into accepting joint control over Rockall if Scotland becomes independent, plus guaranteed access to Scottish fishing waters, than if Scotland stays in the UK and outside the EU.

I don't think Scotland will leave the UK,especially as soon as they realise certain countries will believe they have Scotland over a barrel which is never going to happen,they might grumble and complain and I fully understand they're p*ssed off about brexit but they still have a high degree of autonomy within the UK which is lacking in the EU unless it's Germany or France.Why give that up to be pushed around or taken advantage of by unscrupulous nations trying to gain out of Scotlands potential desire to join the EU?

Water John

A bit of, small thinking, in worrying about Scotland as a competitor. What would be a positive benefit is, having a country with similar interests as us, at the EU table.

Fr Tod Umptious

CelticRambler wrote: »

Pure Brexiter thinking, is that. Scotland will be no more of a competitor to Ireland than the UK was. The EU fosters healthy competition between countries with similar interests, as it maximises the potential market and/or resources when dealing with other trading blocs. The UK had many "competitors" in the EU, but still rode the wave of pooled EU expertise raising the bar for the rest of the world in many, many different sectors.

I thanked this post by accident, have to remove it later.

So here we go.

And independent Scotland in Europe, now in charge of it's own affairs.
Cut their corporation tax rate to a level below ireland's.
Includes other insentives to boost FDI etc.


Big MNC with presence in both Ireland and Scotland.
Going to expand.
Once Ireland was the best choice, but now look, there is Scotland.
In Europe, speakes English, educated workforce, good infrastructure, easy access to the rUK.
Let's go to Scotland instead of Ireland.

There you go that's a simple example of how they can be a competitor to Ireland.

Fr Tod Umptious

Water John wrote: »

A bit of, small thinking, in worrying about Scotland as a competitor. What would be a positive benefit is, having a country with similar interests as us, at the EU table.

So explain the benefits

Water John

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

So explain the benefits

It gives a, critical mass, with a specific interest. For example, Ireland and some other countries, not the UK, had similar agricultural interests.

ancapailldorcha

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I thanked this post by accident, have to remove it later.

So here we go.

And independent Scotland in Europe, now in charge of it's own affairs.
Cut their corporation tax rate to a level below ireland's.
Includes other insentives to boost FDI etc.


Big MNC with presence in both Ireland and Scotland.
Going to expand.
Once Ireland was the best choice, but now look, there is Scotland.
In Europe, speakes English, educated workforce, good infrastructure, easy access to the rUK.
Let's go to Scotland instead of Ireland.

There you go that's a simple example of how they can be a competitor to Ireland.

Strongly disagree.

It'd be a horrible look for the SNP to push for Scottish Independence, EU entry only to start aggressively cutting their corporation tax. I think you've also overrated their infrastructure. Outside Edinburgh and Glasglow, it won't be much better than Ireland's if it is at all. I don't see them even wanting to do that as the SNP is a very internationalist party.

Irish access to the UK is only marginally worse than Scotland's.

sondagefaux

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't think Scotland will leave the UK,especially as soon as they realise certain countries will believe they have Scotland over a barrel which is never going to happen,they might grumble and complain and I fully understand they're p*ssed off about brexit but they still have a high degree of autonomy within the UK which is lacking in the EU unless it's Germany or France.Why give that up to be pushed around or taken advantage of by unscrupulous nations trying to gain out of Scotlands potential desire to join the EU?

Drivel..Any EU member can leave the EU without seeking permission from the rest of the EU.

Scotland can't leave the UK without permission from Westminster.

The UK parliament has the legal power to put an end to devolved parliaments, as it did to the original Northern Ireland parliament in 1972.

I'm not aware of the European Parliament having similar powers over the Oireachtas or any other national parliament.

If you genuinely believe that Scotland has more autonomy within the UK than it would have as an independent state in the EU, you're deluded.

If you're just saying it for effect it's a damb squib.

sondagefaux

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I thanked this post by accident, have to remove it later.

So here we go.

And independent Scotland in Europe, now in charge of it's own affairs.
Cut their corporation tax rate to a level below ireland's.
Includes other insentives to boost FDI etc.


Big MNC with presence in both Ireland and Scotland.
Going to expand.
Once Ireland was the best choice, but now look, there is Scotland.
In Europe, speakes English, educated workforce, good infrastructure, easy access to the rUK.
Let's go to Scotland instead of Ireland.

There you go that's a simple example of how they can be a competitor to Ireland.

What do you mean by easy access to rUK? The trade barriers would be exactly the same for Scotland as for Ireland. Being able to queue at a land border with England for hours isn't much of an advantage over queuing to board a ferry that takes hours to cross the Irish Sea.

Also, you don't seem to know a lot about Scottish politics if you think that cutting corporation tax to Irish levels would have majority support in the Scottish parliament.

RobMc59

sondagefaux wrote: »

Drivel..Any EU member can leave the EU without seeking permission from the rest of the EU.

Scotland can't leave the UK without permission from Westminster.

The UK parliament has the legal power to put an end to devolved parliaments, as it did to the original Northern Ireland parliament in 1972.

I'm not aware of the European Parliament having similar powers over the Oireachtas or any other national parliament.

If you genuinely believe that Scotland has more autonomy within the UK than it would have as an independent state in the EU, you're deluded.

If you're just saying it for effect it's a damb squib.

Where did I say anything about EU members leaving the EU?
If you genuinely believe you don`t have to do as brussels decrees you are deluded.
In another post,you compare a land border between Scotland and England and the sea border between the UK and Ireland being the same..eerr,..no, the land border would be easier to cross without all the shipping holdups..I don`t think the `whats in for me attitude`will go down well with the Scots,they`re a hard nosed bunch and won`t take kindly to duplicitous,opportunist double dealing nations trying to gain an advantage over Scotland if they wanted to join.

steddyeddy

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't think Scotland will leave the UK,especially as soon as they realise certain countries will believe they have Scotland over a barrel which is never going to happen,they might grumble and complain and I fully understand they're p*ssed off about brexit but they still have a high degree of autonomy within the UK which is lacking in the EU unless it's Germany or France.Why give that up to be pushed around or taken advantage of by unscrupulous nations trying to gain out of Scotlands potential desire to join the EU?

You're not falling for the sovereignty line are you Rob?

they still have a high degree of autonomy within the UK

How have they autonomy if they're being made substantially poorer through Brexit against their will? Their fishing industry will be destroyed in a few days and all the PM of the UK could do was state "the SNP want to break up the UK".

First Up

RobMc59 wrote:

If you genuinely believe you don`t have to do as brussels decrees you are deluded.

Rarely has complete ignorance about the EU been so neatly encapsulated in a single sentence.

RobMc59

sondagefaux wrote: »

Drivel..Any EU member can leave the EU without seeking permission from the rest of the EU.

Scotland can't leave the UK without permission from Westminster.

The UK parliament has the legal power to put an end to devolved parliaments, as it did to the original Northern Ireland parliament in 1972.

I'm not aware of the European Parliament having similar powers over the Oireachtas or any other national parliament.

If you genuinely believe that Scotland has more autonomy within the UK than it would have as an independent state in the EU, you're deluded.

If you're just saying it for effect it's a damb squib.

steddyeddy wrote: »

You're not falling for the sovereignty line are you Rob?



How have they autonomy if they're being made substantially poorer through Brexit against their will? Their fishing industry will be destroyed in a few days and all the PM of the UK could do was state "the SNP want to break up the UK".

There are already posters talking about how the possibility of Scotland wanting to join the EU can be used to Ireland`s advantage which was a common theme right through brexit.I truly believe that when all that surfaces it will be a reality check for them.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

There are already posters talking about how the possibility of Scotland wanting to join the EU can be used to Ireland`s advantage which was a common theme right through brexit.I truly believe that when all that surfaces it will be a reality check for them.

Spain had an interest in Gibraltar during the Brexit negotiations. They have agreed a deal that they find OK for now.

If Scotland get independence, then they are still a third country - with a lot of fish.

They could choose to join the EU, or EEA, or go for the unicorns on the sunlit uplands. Whatever they go for, we will wish them well, and negotiate our patch as we always do.

It is business, and business we usually do well at.

steddyeddy

RobMc59 wrote: »

There are already posters talking about how the possibility of Scotland wanting to join the EU can be used to Ireland`s advantage which was a common theme right through brexit.I truly believe that when all that surfaces it will be a reality check for them.

They'll be wealthier in the EU single market. It's that simple Rob.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

Spain had an interest in Gibraltar during the Brexit negotiations. They have agreed a deal that they find OK for now.

If Scotland get independence, then they are still a third country - with a lot of fish.

They could choose to join the EU, or EEA, or go for the unicorns on the sunlit uplands. Whatever they go for, we will wish them well, and negotiate our patch as we always do.

It is business, and business we usually do well at.

Which could potentially scupper the possibility of Scotland joining the EU imo as fish is one of the things they are incensed about.Do you thing they`ll take kindly to opportunists trying to see what they can get out of it?I have`nt even mentioned them being told who can and can`t fish in their waters.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

Which could potentially scupper the possibility of Scotland joining the EU imo as fish is one of the things they are incensed about.Do you thing they`ll take kindly to opportunists trying to see what they can get out of it?I have`nt even mentioned them being told who can and can`t fish in their waters.

If they wish to join the EU, they will apply. It takes ages to get approval to join, and negotiations. The result will be subject to a referendum in Scotland, I presume.

They will be required to re-join the Common Fish Policy, the Common Agriculture Policy, and all the other programmes.

Before any of this, thy must break free from the Palace of Westminster.

First catch your hare.

Capt'n Midnight

For England, Wales and Northern Ireland lot of the quota was sold off and or fish landed at foreign ports.

Who leaves organising the local Nativity trail until Christmas Eve ?
How much of a priority is a Nativity trail in a time when everyone was supposed to be isolating ?

That's how hard Westminster fought for Scottish fishermen.

sondagefaux wrote: »

Another example of how carelessly the UK government has dealt with Brexit.

Fishing minister Victoria Prentis, appearing before a House of Lords committee, admitted “things are tricky at the moment” but said her team is “working hard” to resolve issues as they arose.

During her appearance Ms Prentis raised eyebrows by telling peers she did not read the fisheries deal when it was published on Christmas Eve because she was “very busy organising the local Nativity trail”.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/scotland/brexit-fisheries-minister-did-not-read-deal-as-she-was-very-busy-organising-local-nativity-trail/