Scottish independence

Capt'n Midnight

Richard Leonard quits as Scottish Labour leader

and nobody seems to notice or care

The political landscape had already changed

PommieBast

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Richard Leonard quits as Scottish Labour leader

and nobody seems to notice or care

The political landscape had already changed

Labour have lost support and seats at every single SP election which is not a good sign either. Seem to have been rudderless ever since Donald Dewer died.

BonnieSituation

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Richard Leonard quits as Scottish Labour leader

and nobody seems to notice or care

The political landscape had already changed

He resigned yesterday.

Labour are as good as dead in Scotland. What are they for?


All those of a social democratic persuasion are coalescing around the SNP and Greens and unionists are will coalesce around the Tories.

Most social democrat will likely see the benefits of independence to further social democracy in Scotland without necessarily starting out as being pro-indy.

Imreoir2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

He resigned yesterday.

Labour are as good as dead in Scotland. What are they for?


All those of a social democratic persuasion are coalescing around the SNP and unionists are will coalesce around the Tories.

Most social democrat will likely see the benefits of independence to further social democracy in Scotland without necessarily starting out as being pro-indy.

Some pro-independance Labour types are drifting to the Greens too.

BonnieSituation

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Some pro-independance Labour types are drifting to the Greens too.

Of course. They were in my initial post before the edit. Eugh.

Water John

For Scotland longer term, it would be better if it was usually governed by a coalition. So I'd prefer that a range of political parties would survive.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

For Scotland longer term, it would be better if it was usually governed by a coalition. So I'd prefer that a range of political parties would survive.

The Scot Parl was designed to have a permanent coalition. essentially, Dewar and Co designed it to hamstring the SNP.

I would imagine that in the event of independence that would be par for the courseas the various wings split and merge to more likeminded people once the unionist v indy argument has been ended.

eire4

Water John wrote: »

For Scotland longer term, it would be better if it was usually governed by a coalition. So I'd prefer that a range of political parties would survive.

I suspect post independence that you would see exactly that. The SNP has attracted quite a range of people based on independence but who have fairly wide ranges in their other social and economic viewpoints so I would expect we would see exactly the type of scenario your talking about assuming they got rid of first past the post and used only PR.

BonnieSituation

eire4 wrote: »

I suspect post independence that you would see exactly that. The SNP has attracted quite a range of people based on independence but who have fairly wide ranges in their other social and economic viewpoints so I would expect we would see exactly the type of scenario your talking about assuming they got rid of first past the post and used only PR.

Scotland uses the Additional Member system for Parliamentary elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_constituencies_and_electoral_regions_from_2011

A Dub in Glasgo

Another example of how the Tories are bypassing the devolution settlement

https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/1350428429364187136

Mr.Nice Guy

Raab was hopeless on the Andrew Marr show as regards the difficulties Scottish fishermen are facing.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1350740369756008452

It can't be too long now before opinion polls start hitting that sixty mark.

Peregrinus

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Raab was hopeless on the Andrew Marr show as regards the difficulties Scottish fishermen are facing.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1350740369756008452

It can't be too long now before opinion polls start hitting that sixty mark.

Ironically, Raab is correct. The problems that the fishing industry is facing don't stem from the TCA. They stem from the UK's decision to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union. The most we can say about the TCA is that, although it alleviates some of the problems stemming from that departure, it fails to alleviate this one. And it could never really have alleviated this problem, unless the UK government were willing to compromise it's "no SM" and "no CU" red lines. So the failure of the TCA to alleviate this problem isn't because the TCA is poorly drafted, or whatever; it's because the UK government didn't want the TCA to alleviate this problem.

BonnieSituation

New poll out shows a 51/49 split in favour of independence with Don't knows excluded.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scottish-independence-indyref2-snp-vote-23341951

pixelburp

BonnieSituation wrote: »

New poll out shows a 51/49 split in favour of independence with Don't knows excluded.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scottish-independence-indyref2-snp-vote-23341951

An ostensibly surprising dip from the mid-50s previous polls had been showing. Especially given Brexit and recent Tory clumsiness re. Scottish fishing. Wonder what changed or is different with this survey; if there's some kind of cooling on independence, or just a deviance in terms of the demographics polled.

Water John

It can only be compared to previous Survation polls and I don't know what figures they provided.
You possibly have a situation of not much change being felt after Brexit in the immediate term.

Imreoir2

Water John wrote: »

It can only be compared to previous Survation polls and I don't know what figures they provided.
You possibly have a situation of not much change being felt after Brexit in the immediate term.

The previous Survation poll had a very similar finding. There have only been two polls since the end of the transition period, one that showed independance with a 13% lead, and this one showing independance with a 2% lead.

Two polls from the same companies before Christmas gave essentially the same result. No trend to speak of other than that independance is clearly in the lead, only question is how much.

A Dub in Glasgo

pixelburp wrote: »

An ostensibly surprising dip from the mid-50s previous polls had been showing. Especially given Brexit and recent Tory clumsiness re. Scottish fishing. Wonder what changed or is different with this survey; if there's some kind of cooling on independence, or just a deviance in terms of the demographics polled.

Should really look at polls from the same polling company and the processes and weightings differ between companies

Here is some more detail from the site that commissioned the poll

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/01/exclusive-scot-goes-pop-survation-poll.html

FWIW, I think the % of don't knows is still too high and the don't know vote generally is No

Water John

Think overall it needs one other major shift event. As Anthony Eden remarked on what moves the political landscape, "events dear boy, events".

A Dub in Glasgo

George Osborne being quite candid in his comment piece in todays Evening Standard. With the SNP shooting down a plan B, there is little hope that the current leadership of the SNP will do anything different and they get power for another parliamentary term

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/nationalism-union-brexit-b900299.html

...

Not any more. By unleashing English nationalism, Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade. Northern Ireland is already heading for the exit door. By remaining in the EU single market, it is for all economic intents and purposes now slowly becoming part of a united Ireland. Its prosperity now depends on its relationship with Dublin (and Brussels), not London. The politics will follow.

Northern Irish unionists always feared the mainland was not sufficiently committed to their cause. Now their short-sighted support for Brexit (and unbelievably stupid decision to torpedo Theresa May’s deal that avoided separate Irish arrangements) has made those fears a reality. It pains me to report that most here and abroad will not care.

Scotland is an altogether different matter. Its history is our history. Its contribution to the world through its literature and philosophy, exploration and art, is our contribution. Its departure — with no disrespect to the Welsh — would represent the end of the United Kingdom. The rest of the world would instantly see that we were no longer a front-rank power, or even in the second row. We would instead be one of the great majority of countries who are on the receiving end of the decisions made by a few, subject to the values of others. We would become another historically interesting case study in how successful nations can perform unexpected acts of national suicide.
Related


...
Surely SNP claims of easy trade deals, frictionless borders and a rosy future for Aberdeen fishing and Edinburgh finance can now be easily demolished? If leaving a loose union with European nations after a mere 50 years has caused such division and debilitation, imagine the trauma of sundering an intense 300-year-old union with those we share this island with.

But there’s a problem: this Brexiteer premier can’t say any of this. So what’s the second plan? Simple. Refuse to hold a referendum. It’s the only sure way you won’t lose one. Yes, the SNP will be in full cry — but so what? Domestic opposition has already evaporated, with the Labour leader there resigning last week.

As Tony Blair says, no one has been able to mount a fight since Ruth Davidson left the stage. There’s a risk that the Scottish government holds its own plebiscite — but that won’t be legal, and the courts will stop the arms of the Scottish state, like the police and civil service taking part. Ask the jailed Catalonian leaders how their illegal poll worked out. The only way you can have legal path to independence is through a referendum that is voted for by the House of Commons. So don’t vote for one. Whatever the provocation. Just say no, Boris, and save yourself a long anxious night in Downing Street.

Water John

Not having the Ref gets Boris to the next election if the Tories leave him there. But in the overall scheme of things that's an infintismal time.
BTW can Scottish boats land their catch in NI or ROI and it's in the EU market but Scottish quota?

A Dub in Glasgo

The same poll commissioned asked a question about the election in May

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/01/scot-goes-pop-survation-poll-sensation.html

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1351647370774159360

BonnieSituation

If the SNP get the expected majority, then the clamour will become deafening.

Unionists think they can just stonewall it but as it was said above, events dear boy, events.

PommieBast

Water John wrote: »

Think overall it needs one other major shift event. As Anthony Eden remarked on what moves the political landscape, "events dear boy, events".

Think it was actually Harold Macmillan who said that..

Mr.Nice Guy

I agree with a lot of Osborne's comments above, but I think there is a short-sightedness among Tories if they think just saying No is going to make the referendum issue go away.

It's a bit like a chap with an unhappy wife who wants them to go to marriage counselling telling himself that if he just keeps refusing her and saying no, she will stop wanting things to change, and everything will go back to the way he likes it.

At some point, the issue has to be confronted. The danger for the Tories is the longer they kick the can down the road, the more older and pro-Union voters leave the stage to be replaced by younger, pro-Indy voters, and so you end up in a situation where independence becomes an inevitability.

Peregrinus

Water John wrote: »

It can only be compared to previous Survation polls and I don't know what figures they provided.

The Wikipedia page on opinion polling for Scottish independence maintains an up to date table (and graph) of polling outcomes.

The previous Survation poll was a month ago. It also showed a 2% margin in favour of independence, but with a slightly lower proportion of "undecideds" (14% in December as opposed to 12% in January, but that shift is within the margin of error so means very little). So it may be that something about the Survation methodology - the respondents they reach, the question they ask - tends to find lower levels of support for independence than other pollsters do. (This wouldn't necessarily mean that the Survation results were unreliable or inaccurate.)

More generally, there will always be outlier data points in survey data of this kind - it's in the nature of the thing. This particular poll shows a suprisingly (relative to what most polls show) low 2% majority for independence; back in October an IPSOS Mori poll showed a surprisingly high 16% margin for independence. It would be unwise to place to much reliance on either of them - pay more attention to the average of the polls, and to the direction of the trend over time - is support for independence rising or falling?

(Answer: It has been rising fairly steady since the 2017 UK General Election and the start of the Brexit negotiations commenced. It's been rising a bit faster since the end of 2019, when the Withdrawal Agreement was concluded and the UK formally left the EU.)

rock22

Looking at Peregrinus' reference/link, it is interesting that the 'No' vote seems to get a boost after the Brexit referendum, suggesting that voters were more attracted to an independent UK than to an Independent Scotland. Of course the change is only about 2-5%. But there has been a consistent, if small, climb in the 'Yes' vote since late 2017.

However the current poll results are about the same as at the time of the Scottish referendum in 2014. But the actual result was 45% YES to 55% NO.
It is possible that polls overestimate 'Yes' support, or that 'Yes' supporters are less likely to go out and vote. Or possibly the sampling is not getting a good sample of the population. It is impossible to know. But given the experience in 2014, i think the pro Independence movement would need to see figures over 60% to feel comfortable of a win.

So like Water John above, there might be a need for another significant event to move the figures by about 8 to 10 %

breatheme

I can somewhat agree with that, if polls are 51 YES/49 NO, it's still pretty much a coin toss.

And maybe they can get away with another referendum sooner, but if the next one is a no, then it will be a long time before they get a third one.

Peregrinus

Current polls are not "about the same as at the time of the Scottish referendum in 2014". "No" led in all polls in 2012 and 2013, and in all but 2 polls in 2014. The last ten polls before the referendum were all won by "no", by margins of between 1% and 7%. (The margin of victory for "no" in the referendum itself was 10%). Whereas "Yes" has won all except two polls in 2020, and it has won all of the the most recent ten polls by margins of between 1% and 16%.

Victory is by no means certain, but based on a comparison of the polls in both cases "Yes" is in a much stronger position now than it was in 2014, and "No" in a correspondingly weaker position.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

Current polls are not "about the same as at the time of the Scottish referendum in 2014". "No" led in all polls in 2012 and 2013, and in all but 2 polls in 2014. The last ten polls before the referendum were all won by "no", by margins of between 1% and 7%. (The margin of victory for "no" in the referendum itself was 10%). Whereas "Yes" has won all except two polls in 2020, and it has won all of the the most recent ten polls by margins of between 1% and 16%.

Victory is by no means certain, but based on a comparison of the polls in both cases "Yes" is in a much stronger position now than it was in 2014, and "No" in a correspondingly weaker position.

In these types of situation, the run up to the vote is usually governed by a campaign that can catch a mood (or not) and give one side momentum, and that can carry the day.

Cameron promised 'Max Devolution' which is still waiting to be launched. That will not work next time.

The Unionist side threatened that an independent Scotland will be outside the EU and not allowed to use Sterling. That will not work next time either.

So which side will come out with the winning slogan?

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

In these types of situation, the run up to the vote is usually governed by a campaign that can catch a mood (or not) and give one side momentum, and that can carry the day.

Cameron promised 'Max Devolution' which is still waiting to be launched. That will not work next time.

The Unionist side threatened that an independent Scotland will be outside the EU and not allowed to use Sterling. That will not work next time either.

So which side will come out with the winning slogan?

Which bit of Devo max hasn’t been launched?

There seems to be an ongoing belief that "The Pledge" (which was from all three main UK party leaders, not just Cameron) has not been honoured, but there seems to be a lack of willingness to explain what/why.