Scottish independence

breatheme

They can get away with another referendum on the basis that the EU rug was proverbially pulled from under Scotland's feet, and use that as their main argument. And it is not a weak argument.

But if they are smart, they'd wait till independence support is at 60%. Otherwise it's a coin toss and like you are saying, if they mess it up again, they won't get another chance in this lifetime.

Water John

What the SNP have to judge, by digging deeper into the polling data, is when support for Indy peaks. They then have to have the gumption to push the boat into the water. Timing is critical, but one cannot wait forever.
One must remember too that Johnson was ready to be dumped by the Con Party a couple of months ago. So things can change.

eire4

Water John wrote: »

What the SNP have to judge, by digging deeper into the polling data, is when support for Indy peaks. They then have to have the gumption to push the boat into the water. Timing is critical, but one cannot wait forever.
One must remember too the Johnson was ready to be dumped by the Con Party a couple of months ago. So things can change.

I think your right timing will be critical. A landslide victory in May you would think would up the ante quite a bit and if London again reacts with more intransigence which based on current behvaiour is a reasonable expectation then I could easily see support for independence being above 60% by then.

BonnieSituation

eire4 wrote: »

I think your right timing will be critical. A landslide victory in May you would think would up the ante quite a bit and if London again reacts with more intransigence which based on current behvaiour is a reasonable expectation then I could easily see support for independence being above 60% by then.

That's the hope. Once they don't eat themselves before then.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's the hope. Once they don't eat themselves before then.

Genuine questions Bonnie,what's it to you and the other Irish posters on this thread, why are you so interested in what happens in the UK with Scotland?And why do you want the Union to break up?

pixelburp

RobMc59 wrote: »

Genuine questions bonnie,what's it to you and the other Irish posters on this thread, why are you so interested in what happens in the UK with Scotland?And why do you want the Union to break up?

Can't speak to Bonnie and I feel the question is asked in bad-faith but ... to give the benefit of the doubt: I'm not "invested" myself, though I do have family in the country ATM; rather my personal read of Scottish history from the last 10 years is that it was effectively hoodwinked into maintaining its link with the UK on the basis of false logic or a lie - depending on ones view of how Brexit changed the context of that 2014 vote. Stay in the union to stay in the EU. Now, they've been yanked out of the EU at the cost of its own economic future and national narrative.

Historically, I don't see the UK as a union of equals despite any token evidence there might be. Rather a partnership of convenience that has heavily skewed towards English hegemony, exploiting its "lesser" nations than any true partnership. And that's fine! I'm not naive to how power worked in those days; the realpolitik was always in London & the crown therein - to the point a Scottish king flipped the primacy of his authority when he _adopted_ the crown of England. Going back a good few centuries of course, but to me that's emblematic of the relationship between England and Scotland.

For whatever reason, Scotland has always maintained a very distinct sense of national identity, despite elements such as its own native language being squashed. Unlike, say, Wales, the country hasn't let itself be excessively subsumed into an Anglasicsed version of "British" identity (notwithstanding some aspects like the modern kilt etc). Maybe it was simply always its geographical distance keeping the zeitgeist and changes at bay; maybe it was how Scotland went off in its own direction after the reformation. I dunno, I'm not an expert just a Hurler on the Ditch. But either way, I see Scotland as a nearly-sovereign nation having its macro decisions made for it.

And as someone who views Brexit as an example of adolescent Sunk Cost, spurred on by a misdirected sense of English nationalism for an extinct empire, I support Scotland's desire to remove itself from that endangerment. There's a whole thread about Brexit so not going to get into the weeds there, but I don't blame any nation wanted to distance itself from that deep econmic self-harm.

20silkcut

RobMc59 wrote: »

Genuine questions Bonnie,what's it to you and the other Irish posters on this thread, why are you so interested in what happens in the UK with Scotland?And why do you want the Union to break up?

Speaking personally I don’t have any great interest in the affairs of Scotland. The relationship between Ireland and Scotland has never been that great or rewarding certainly in comparison to England. Maybe it’s different in the North and in places like Donegal where there was a lot of migration to Scotland. But in the South of Ireland, Scotland is a rather distant place with few connections. On a superficial level incidents like the rugby World Cup 2023 vote and the Scots and welsh refusing to play rugby matches in Dublin at the height of the troubles speaks volumes in my opinion when it comes to who has our back. I would see Scotland as a competitor nation due to our similar size and geography. And if they are out of the EU and at a disadvantage compared to us then I’m sorry if this sounds selfish but good for us.
Regardless if the Union does tear itself apart over brexit there won’t be too many people in Ireland who will be sorry about it considering the historical connotations of that Union and the harm it done to this country. And it is fascinating to watch. And resonates so much with our own situation 100 years ago. Hence the interest.

Fr Tod Umptious

pixelburp wrote: »

Can't speak to Bonnie and I feel the question is asked in bad-faith but ... to give the benefit of the doubt: I'm not "invested" myself, though I do have family in the country ATM; rather my personal read of Scottish history from the last 10 years is that it was effectively hoodwinked into maintaining its link with the UK on the basis of false logic or a lie - depending on ones view of how Brexit changed the context of that 2014 vote. Stay in the union to stay in the EU. Now, they've been yanked out of the EU at the cost of its own economic future and national narrative.

Historically, I don't see the UK as a union of equals despite any token evidence there might be. Rather a partnership of convenience that has heavily skewed towards English hegemony, exploiting its "lesser" nations than any true partnership. And that's fine! I'm not naive to how power worked in those days; the realpolitik was always in London & the crown therein - to the point a Scottish king flipped the primacy of his authority when he _adopted_ the crown of England. Going back a good few centuries of course, but to me that's emblematic of the relationship between England and Scotland.

For whatever reason, Scotland has always maintained a very distinct sense of national identity, despite elements such as its own native language being squashed. Unlike, say, Wales, the country hasn't let itself be excessively subsumed into an Anglasicsed version of "British" identity (notwithstanding some aspects like the modern kilt etc). Maybe it was simply always its geographical distance keeping the zeitgeist and changes at bay; maybe it was how Scotland went off in its own direction after the reformation. I dunno, I'm not an expert just a Hurler on the Ditch. But either way, I see Scotland as a nearly-sovereign nation having its macro decisions made for it.

And as someone who views Brexit as an example of adolescent Sunk Cost, spurred on by a misdirected sense of English nationalism for an extinct empire, I support Scotland's desire to remove itself from that endangerment. There's a whole thread about Brexit so not going to get into the weeds there, but I don't blame any nation wanted to distance itself from that deep econmic self-harm.

I can't speak for the person who asked the question but I don't thinking questioning Irish people about their support for Scottish independence is asked in bad faith.

Since this whole independence talk began around here a decade or more ago I have always got the feeling that Irish people support Scottish independence simple to "stick it to the Brits".

It' almost seen as a united Ireland by proxy.

As in, if NI isn't going to leave the union anytime soon the next best thing is for Scotland to leave it, regardless of the longer and short term outcomes for the stability of UK or for the peace process on Ireland and the overall political situation on these islands.

Scotland are no shrinking violets
They are not some people downtrodden for centuries by the English.
They ere as much a part of building the empire as were the English.
heck sure they are even responsible for the colonization of the northern part of this island.

Fr Tod Umptious

20silkcut wrote: »

Speaking personally I don’t have any great interest in the affairs of Scotland. The relationship between Ireland and Scotland has never been that great or rewarding certainly in comparison to England. Maybe it’s different in the North and in places like Donegal where there was a lot of migration to Scotland. But in the South of Ireland, Scotland is a rather distant place with few connections. On a superficial level incidents like the rugby World Cup 2023 vote and the Scots and welsh refusing to play rugby matches in Dublin at the height of the troubles speaks volumes in my opinion when it comes to who has our back. I would see Scotland as a competitor nation due to our similar size and geography. And if they are out of the EU and at a disadvantage compared to us then I’m sorry if this sounds selfish but good for us.
Regardless if the Union does tear itself apart over brexit there won’t be too many people in Ireland who will be sorry about it considering the historical connotations of that Union and the harm it done to this country. And it is fascinating to watch. And resonates so much with our own situation 100 years ago. Hence the interest.

Exactly
I've been saying that for years around here

Scotland is not our friend

20silkcut

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Exactly
I've been saying that for years around here

Scotland is not our friend

Agree 100% . It never was a lot of the problems particularly in the North stem from Scotland.
And during the troubles some of the most loyal British regiments were deployed from Scotland to compound those problems.

pixelburp

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I can't speak for the person who asked the question but I don't thinking questioning Irish people about their support for Scottish independence is asked in bad faith.

Since this whole independence talk began around here a decade or more ago I have always got the feeling that Irish people support Scottish independence simple to "stick it to the Brits".

It' almost seen as a united Ireland by proxy.

As in, if NI isn't going to leave the union anytime soon the next best thing is for Scotland to leave it, regardless of the longer and short term outcomes for the stability of UK or for the peace process on Ireland and the overall political situation on these islands.

Scotland are no shrinking violets
They are not some people downtrodden for centuries by the English.
They ere as much a part of building the empire as were the English.
heck sure they are even responsible for the colonization of the northern part of this island.

Why is anyone posting anything on this forum? Almost none of us are Americans, yet would you ask the same of those posting in the Trump or Biden threads? Of course not. And those that do almost always do so with snarky intentions, keen to insult those contributing "in good faith" of the debate on the subject.

I call it bad faith precisely because of what you're inferring with your response: call it being touchy on my part and I'll own it, but there's an inference that gets no less tedious each time it comes up. That there's some "brit bashing" behind the support, hooray'ing the breakup of the union out of bitterness for our own part in it... which, no. I can't stand that. It immediately personalises the debate, making the conversation inherently defensive and pointless, as suddenly folks have to defend having a viewpoint by dint of their nationality.

I never claimed the Scots were "shrinking violets" or downtrodden either; I'm well aware of the Scots roles in the Empire, or indeed how many Scots contributed to the creation of modern technology, but on a national level relationship was never even or balanced. Power flowed from London, not from Edinburgh - this was never a de-centralised Empire or power base. Scottish nationalism never really went away though; it always floated about to some degree or another in the conversation. Sometimes fringe, sometimes populist - worth remembering that modern-day independence has been around since the late 70s at a minimum.

Are they our friend? I don't honestly care. I think the UK is a regressive, historic entity that can't really justify its existence these days, so if Scotland want to leave I'll support them. If you say that's cos I'm a bitter Irishman, then yeah. I'd tell you where to go with that but then I'd be the one pinged by the mods

A Dub in Glasgo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Genuine questions Bonnie,what's it to you and the other Irish posters on this thread, why are you so interested in what happens in the UK with Scotland?And why do you want the Union to break up?

I live in Scotland and have done for quite a while now

Should the same question be opened up to all posters on this thread?

serfboard

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Scotland is not our friend

"Nations have no friends or enemies, only interests."

A variation of a quote by Henry Kissinger which was a variation of a quote from a former British Prime Minster, Henry Temple (aka Lord Palmerston).

Temple, of course, was a thoroughly decent chap, evicting 2,000 of his Irish tenants for non-payment of rent during the famine and declaring that:

Henry Temple wrote:

any great improvement in the social system of Ireland must be founded upon an extensive change in the present state of agrarian occupation [through] a long continued and systematic ejectment of Small holders and of Squatting Cottiers.

A philosophy that was also applied to the "Scottish Question" as well.

The problem then, as now, is not that there was too much inequality, but simply that there were too many poor people - and definitely too many poor Celtic Types.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Genuine questions Bonnie,what's it to you and the other Irish posters on this thread, why are you so interested in what happens in the UK with Scotland?And why do you want the Union to break up?

I'm Irish. I'm interested because the UK is Ireland's largest neighbour, the two nations have a very close relationship for historical and cultural reasons and the UK is an important trading partner. Also, I live in the UK.

I want the Union to break up because it is fundamentally undemocratic and English elites have no interest in sharing power. Wales and Scotland are both regions with their own cultures and should have the right to decide if they'd like to be independent. NI should also have the right to decide its future. Even though these three regions have their own assemblies, that right is subject to the whims of the prime minister of the day.

There's also the argument that various regions in England are getting the short end of the stick democratically. They get no assembly and limited representation based on an unrepresentative voting system.

Why do you think the Union should prevail?

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm Irish. I'm interested because the UK is Ireland's largest neighbour, the two nations have a very close relationship for historical and cultural reasons and the UK is an important trading partner. Also, I live in the UK.

I want the Union to break up because it is fundamentally undemocratic and English elites have no interest in sharing power. Wales and Scotland are both regions with their own cultures and should have the right to decide if they'd like to be independent. NI should also have the right to decide its future. Even though these three regions have their own assemblies, that right is subject to the whims of the prime minister of the day.

There's also the argument that various regions in England are getting the short end of the stick democratically. They get no assembly and limited representation based on an unrepresentative voting system.

Why do you think the Union should prevail?

Your reasons seem valid although I wonder if a Scottish referendum comes out in favour of remaining within the Union is that the end of it or will this just trundle on.
I'm British and believe we are stronger together,just as I believe the UK was better off together with other nations in the EU.

A Dub in Glasgo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your reasons seem valid although I wonder if a Scottish referendum comes out in favour of remaining within the Union is that the end of it or will this just trundle on.
I'm British and believe we are stronger together,just as I believe the UK was better off together with other nations in the EU.

Brexit has amplified for those that did not know that the UK is nothing like the EU

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your reasons seem valid although I wonder if a Scottish referendum comes out in favour of remaining within the Union is that the end of it or will this just trundle on.
I'm British and believe we are stronger together,just as I believe the UK was better off together with other nations in the EU.

I think it is not right that the UK Parliament is the parliament for the whole of the UK, England, Scotland, Wales and NI, but it is also the parliament for wholly English matters that are already devolved to the other assemblies. Should a Scottish MP be prevented from voting on such matters? [That is the West Lothian question].

Clearly, the answer would be to set up an English assembly with similar powers (I would say identical powers) that each devolved assembly has. Then one has to ask - should there be a single English assembly or multiple ones given that each region of England differs substantial from most others.

However, England Rules - literally.

Until that situation is resolved, Scotland should be free to seek independence.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your reasons seem valid although I wonder if a Scottish referendum comes out in favour of remaining within the Union is that the end of it or will this just trundle on.
I'm British and believe we are stronger together,just as I believe the UK was better off together with other nations in the EU.

The reason that Scottish nationalism has enjoyed a resurgence is Brexit. It might have been prevented if the Conservatives had sought to reach an all-union consensus on Brexit instead of imposing their own definition of it onto the two states in the union that rejected it.

pixelburp

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your reasons seem valid although I wonder if a Scottish referendum comes out in favour of remaining within the Union is that the end of it or will this just trundle on.
I'm British and believe we are stronger together,just as I believe the UK was better off together with other nations in the EU.

Brexit caused the second referendum conversation, honestly, it's as simple as that IMO: if the follow-up referendum fails, it won't matter whether it was unofficial or London sanctioned, that's it. The independence movement becomes functionally dead for the next 25- 50 years because, despite that seismic change in the union, Scotland decided to take a chance with the uncertainty of the Brexit landscape.

It's impossible to ever know but were the two referenda reversed in chronological, I'd speculate if an indy ref. that took place after Brexit would have had the same result as in reality.

PommieBast

RobMc59 wrote: »

Genuine questions Bonnie,what's it to you and the other Irish posters on this thread, why are you so interested in what happens in the UK with Scotland?And why do you want the Union to break up?

In my case I think Scottish independence is one of the few things that would give English nationalists the schooling they deserve. A lot of structural issues won't be resolved until that happens.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm Irish. I'm interested because the UK is Ireland's largest neighbour, the two nations have a very close relationship for historical and cultural reasons and the UK is an important trading partner. Also, I live in the UK.

I want the Union to break up because it is fundamentally undemocratic and English elites have no interest in sharing power.

Tory English elites like Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith, or Labour ones like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown?

Fr Tod Umptious

PommieBast wrote: »

In my case I think Scottish independence is one of the few things that would give English nationalists the schooling they deserve. A lot of structural issues won't be resolved until that happens.

This is a perfect example of the "sticking it to the Brits" that I mentioned earlier

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

Tory English elites like Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith, or Labour ones like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown?

Tony Blair (born in Edinburgh) and Gordon Brown (born Giffnock) are both Scottish.

Fr Tod Umptious

Sam Russell wrote: »

Tony Blair (born in Edinburgh) and Gordon Brown (born Giffnock) are both Scottish.

And their goes Aegir's point sailing over Sam Russell's head.

Sam Russell

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And their goes Aegir's point sailing over Sam Russell's head.

I thought his point was displaying his ignorance. Sorry if I missed some other point.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

I thought his point was displaying his ignorance. Sorry if I missed some other point.

Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Gove are also Scottish.

bob mcbob

Aegir wrote: »

Tory English elites like Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith, or Labour ones like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown?

Michael Gove - born in Scotland

From 1985 to 1988 he read English at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford,[14][15] during which time he joined the Conservative Party.[16] He became a member of the Oxford University Conservative Association and was secretary of Aberdeen South Young Conservatives.[17] He helped to write speeches for Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet ministers, including Peter Lilley and Michael Howard.[18] During his first year, he met future Prime Minister Boris Johnson and helped him become elected President of the Oxford Union.[19] In an interview with Andrew Gimson, Gove remarked that at Oxford, Johnson was "quite the most brilliant extempore speaker of his generation."[20] Gove was elected as Oxford Union President a year after Johnson.[21] He graduated with an upper second.[22]

Gove first found employment on the 'Peterborough' column of The Daily Telegraph, after passing an interview by Max Hastings.[24] Struggling to maintain his career in London,[25] he moved back to Aberdeen and became a trainee reporter at The Press and Journal, where he spent several months on strike in the 1989–1990 dispute over union recognition and representation.[26] From 1990[27] to 1991[28] he worked as a reporter for Scottish Television, with a brief interlude at Grampian Television in Aberdeen.[29]

After moving to national television in 1991, Gove worked for the BBC's On the Record,[28] and the Channel 4 current affairs programme A Stab in the Dark, alongside David Baddiel and Tracey MacLeod.[30] In 1994 he began working for the BBC's Today programme.[31][32] In 1995 he was identified by The Guardian as part of a group of "a new breed of 21st-century Tories".[33][34] He broke the news of the 1995 Conservative Party leadership election thanks to his connections with the upper echelons of the party.[33]

Seems pretty elite to me. He has also lived in England pretty much for s long as he has had the choice.

Iain Duncan Smith - born in Edinburgh

Duncan Smith was educated at Bishop Glancey Secondary Modern, Solihull, until the age of 14, and then at HMS Conway, a Merchant Navy training school on the Isle of Anglesey, until he was 18.[6][7] There, he played rugby union in the position of fly-half alongside Clive Woodward at centre.[7] In 1973, he spent a year studying at the University for Foreigners in Perugia, Italy.[n 1][8] He then attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and was commissioned into the Scots Guards as a second lieutenant on 28 June 1975, with the Personal Number 500263.[7][9] He was promoted to lieutenant in the Scots Guards on 28 June 1977.[10] During his service, he served in Northern Ireland and Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe),[11] where he was aide-de-camp to Major-General Sir John Acland, commander of the Commonwealth Monitoring Force monitoring the ceasefire during elections.[12]

Duncan Smith married Elizabeth "Betsy" Fremantle, daughter of the 5th Baron Cottesloe, in 1982. The couple have four children,[101] and live in a country house belonging to his father-in-law's estate in Swanbourne, Buckinghamshire.[102] He is a Roman Catholic.[103] He has been reported to support both Tottenham Hotspur,[104] where in 2002 he held a season ticket,[105] and Aston Villa.[106]

You don'r get any more part of the English elite than that (even if you were born in Edinburgh)

Tony Blair - born in Edinburgh

Blair was born in Edinburgh; his father, Leo, was a barrister and academic. After attending the independent school Fettes College, he studied law at St John's College, Oxford and became a barrister.

With his parents basing their family in Durham, Blair attended Chorister School from 1961 to 1966.[13] Aged thirteen, he was sent to spend his school term time boarding at Fettes College in Edinburgh from 1966 to 1971.[14] Blair is reported to have hated his time at Fettes.[15] His teachers were unimpressed with him; his biographer, John Rentoul, reported that "All the teachers I spoke to when researching the book said he was a complete pain in the backside and they were very glad to see the back of him."[14] Blair reportedly modelled himself on Mick Jagger, lead singer of The Rolling Stones.[16] During his time there he met Charlie Falconer (a pupil at the rival Edinburgh Academy), whom he later appointed Lord Chancellor.

Leaving Fettes College at the age of eighteen, Blair next spent a gap year in London attempting to find fame as a rock music promoter.[17]

In 1972, at the age of nineteen, Blair enrolled for university at St John's College, Oxford, reading Jurisprudence for three years.[18] As a student, he played guitar and sang in a rock band called Ugly Rumours,[19] and performed some stand-up comedy, including parodying James T. Kirk as a character named Captain Kink.[20] He was influenced by fellow student and Anglican priest Peter Thomson, who awakened his religious faith and left-wing politics. While at Oxford, Blair has stated that he was briefly a Trotskyist, after reading the first volume of Isaac Deutscher's biography of Leon Trotsky, which was "like a light going on".[21][22] He graduated from Oxford at the age of 22 in 1975 with a second-class Honours B.A. in Jurisprudence.[23][24]

In 1975, while Blair was at Oxford, his mother Hazel died aged 52 of thyroid cancer, which greatly affected him.[25]

After Oxford, Blair then became a member of Lincoln's Inn and enrolled as a pupil barrister. He met his future wife, Cherie Booth (daughter of the actor Tony Booth) at the law chambers founded by Derry Irvine (who was to be Blair's first Lord Chancellor), 11 King's Bench Walk Chambers.[26]


Blair born in Edinburgh schooled mainly in Durham except for Fettes (Scotland's Eton) then Oxford then London. Now indisputably part of the globe elite based in London.

Your argument seems to be that only the English born can be part of the English elite.

A Dub in Glasgo

Only one of those listed (Brown) has contested or held a political seat / position in Scotland. The other three have spent their entire carrer in politics in England

Sam Russell

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Only one of those listed (Brown) has contested or held a political seat / position in Scotland. The other three have spent their entire carrer in politics in England

As the Duke of Wellington is reported to have said - Being born in a stable does not make you a horse.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

As the Duke of Wellington is reported to have said - Being born in a stable does not make you a horse.

He was undoubtedly Irelands finest military leader ever.