Scottish independence

loyatemu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165546#Comment_119165546

He'll be replaced by another Tory, so I don't see it making a huge difference (nor do I see Starmer making much difference if the referendum happens after the next GE).

Mr.Nice Guy

Alba's Alex Salmond is calling for the SNP to start the campaign for a referendum in 2023.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1535991056818479107

No one really knows what happens if Sturgeon makes an official request for a Section 30 order and it's refused. I don't expect the SNP to go down the Catalan route and hold an unofficial referendum. Professor John Curtice speaking recently presented an alternate suggestion, but would this be viable?

https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1530143919425695744

serfboard

I can't see any British government, even an SNP-dependent Labour one, getting into negotiations about Scottish Independence without a successful referendum.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195993#Comment_119195993

I think the Union is losing its salience amongst English voters. Many are resentful that the Scots get more spending per capital than they do. The point is that the days when the Murdoch press could scaremonger about the SNP tail wagging the English dog are over IMO.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1536374163841388545

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1536365983459205120

Looks like tomorrow will be very interesting. It seems the campaign for indyref2 is about to commence. Big question is how it will proceed.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1536659516628123649

Think this might be the first time Sturgeon has said other avenues will be considered if Johnson refuses to grant a referendum. Remains to be seen whether there is a legal case for whatever the alternatives are.

Grassey

“We are dealing with a prime minister that doesn’t respect democracy, the law or any of the norms that underpin democracy in the UK,” she said, alluding to Johnson’s attempts to rewrite the Northern Ireland protocol and his refusal to resign over the Partygate scandal. “I have to deal with that reality. Does that pose challenges? I’ll set those out. And the ability of the Scottish parliament to legislate without a section 30 order is contested. I believe we can navigate a path forward but I’m going to do that responsibly, I’m going to do that properly.”

I wonder will the path involve "breaking the UK constitution in a limited and specific manner"... Surely the Tories would have to applaud that 🤣🤣🤣🤣

A Dub in Glasgo

About time Sturgeon recognised that just sitting back and asking the Tories to allow the Scottish parliament have a referendum is getting us nowhere

The general election is in 2024 and I would use that election in Scotland as a plebiscite election

Mr.Nice Guy

Ciaran Martin, a former UK constitution director who helped agree the 2014 referendum framework, told the Sunday Times:

“The talk in Edinburgh circles is of a clever legal wheeze where ‘softer’ legislation is drafted; perhaps rather than a referendum on independence, the bill is instead about something like asking the people of Scotland for a mandate to open independence negotiations with the UK. Something like this – often incorrectly described as an advisory referendum – might stand a better chance in court, though plenty of experts are sceptical.”

That could be an interesting option, although would a UK government enter into independence negotiations even if the Scottish electorate grant such a mandate? I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to sabotage it from the offset by insisting they wouldn't engage.

I think the Scottish independence campaign is going to have a big problem as well with the media this time. I didn't think the UK media, including the BBC, were very fair last time around, and I can see them being even worse this time. It's going to be Project Fear on steroids.

BonnieSituation

To say it wasn't fair is putting it lightly. They were bloody disgraceful.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119224712#Comment_119224712

I can't help wonder if the old mantra from 2014 will be thrown in others' faces; how Scotland will only stay in the EU through a No vote. There has probably been too much water under the bridge since then, too many immediate crises to deal with, but I daresay it's worth reminding Scots of this.

If I had to guess about coming tactics... it might be that one of the key pillars for independence would be increased energy independence - a potentially timely, topical advantage for the Yes cohort to shout about given everything going on. Scotland is rich in supply but can't speak to how much control Hollyrood has over sharing this across the Scottish nation. "We could better solve this crisis" might be a very enticing prospect to the Undecideds.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119225555#Comment_119225555

I can't help wonder if the old mantra from 2014 will be thrown in others' faces; how Scotland will only stay in the EU through a No vote.

But that was 100% correct in 2014.

The only way Scotland would stayed in the EU was with a No vote.

The EU referendum that became Brexit itself was conditional on the Conservative party winning the 2015 GE.

So anything like the Brexit we have now was very much in left field back in 2014.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119225637#Comment_119225637

Indeed it was correct, but as the saying goes Time Makes Fools of Us All; Scotland rejected independence, perhaps the prospect of being out of the EU a factor. An argument made more persuasive when they rejected Brexit by an even larger margin. Yet here they are, stuck with an English focused extraction and economic suicide. What you say might be technically correct but the optics tell a different story. In hindsight the warnings of losing the EU feel hollow.

pixelburp

The House of Lords coming out with a real clunker of an idea: the independence referendum should also ask the other 3 nations if Scotland can leave. Obviously, the HoL doesn't make policy, and barely has any relevance as it stands, but you'd have to wonder if at Indy Ref HQ they're putting that into the pile of ammunition for the marketing campaign.

https://www.thejournal.ie/scottish-independence-referendum-united-kingdom-5798560-Jun2022/

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242067#Comment_119242067

Would it make more sense to ask all four nations if they want to be independent of all the others. Why restrict it to the Scots?

They could also ask if they want to become a republic and abolish the monarchy, and the House of Lords - just for good measure.

Mr.Nice Guy

The unionists in Scotland appear petrified of another referendum, and I don't blame them. There's a shocking lack of talent in their ranks. In 2014 you had Gordon Brown making a telling contribution to the debate, and Ruth Davidson appeared to be able to articulate a positive view of the union. Both are busted flushes now whose word counts for little. I can't think of anyone on the unionist side that could lay out a strong case for the UK. When you look at the way Westminster is behaving, how could you?

I think the best hope on the unionist side is using the media to spook voters. It will be a tidal wave of negativity and they'll hope that will win the day.

BonnieSituation

That's the only way Unionism is ever able to challenge.

Even with GB and RD in 2014 it was all about threatening Scots' pensions and their place in the EU.

Like in Ireland, Unionism is a thoroughly negative ideology. The sooner the better it's killed off, the better for us all.

The grass is not always greener on the other side

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119246807#Comment_119246807

Very true, and one thing that the Indy parties need to be wary of is Brexit.

Brexit supporters told everyone that the grass was greener, and it certainly was not.

Independence parties will tell everyone that the grass is greener, but the listening audience, having been burned by Brexit may be sceptical of it.

Scotland and England have been in union for over 300 years, that's a lot to untangle and there are a lot of different interests to satisfy.

People here have argued that the SNP had very comprehensive documents and plans for how Scotland would prosper as an independent country.

Others here have argued that the same documents and plans were nothing more than aspirational waffle.

They need to make it clear to the people exactly what the benefits and pitfalls will be if they want to convince people that breaking up a 300 year union is a good idea.

Sam Russell

If the Scottish Labour Party had backed the IndyRef1 vote, (hindsight is everything) they would have been able to keep some influence in Scottish affairs, being the largest party. As a result of the IndyRef1, they lost all their Westminster seats, and with it much of the chance of a majority in Westminster.

A disaster for the SNP would be the loss of a second referendum.

Following independence, where goes the SNP, having won their key raison d'etre? Do they split, or return to the party or ginger group from where they they started from?

As for 300 years on Union, they still have a completely separate legal system from England. The current devolved gov has many powers that they would need as a separate country.

They even have their own soccer and rugby teams.

Ramasun

I'm not sure whether Scotland would actually be better off near term outside the UK but strategically the SNP should seize the moment and call an unofficial Indy ref 2 as soon as possible. If they're going to do it, now is the time.

Johnson's government is at a very weak moment. If they hurry it up it could coincide with the report on whether Johnson lied to parliament. Timing could swing the decision either way. A post Brexit poll would indicate the true feelings of the Scottish people now the effects of leaving the EU are being felt.

loyatemu

unofficial referendum would be boycotted by the unionist side and have no legitimacy. So they win it, what then? Declare independence? Occupy the Edinburgh equivalent of the GPO? It would be the same a the Catalan vote, it would be unrecognised internationally and would probably set back their chances of getting a proper referendum under a less belligerent London govt.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119246807#Comment_119246807

The grass isn't very green over there as it is. Would you like to have stayed shackled to that horror show?

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119247397#Comment_119247397

No matter what the SNP do it won't be enough. Let's be honest.

The narrative needs to be turned around and let Unionists tell the Scots what's so great about the Union.

I can't wait for indyref2.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119247790#Comment_119247790

What is an 'unofficial referendum'?

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119246807#Comment_119246807

The grass is very brown in the UK at the moment

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119247397#Comment_119247397

In what way is the UK a union?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242067#Comment_119242067

Brexit was a draw. Two nations were for and two against.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119247790#Comment_119247790

I don't see the SNP going down the Catalan route. I think the most likely options at this stage are:

1) a series of legal challenges take place over the next year or so, testing the limits of what's legally viable.

2) a referendum is held that asks voters to grant a Scottish government a mandate to negotiate for independence. This might be more likely to get the blessing of the courts, although some experts are sceptical.

3) the next general election sees the SNP treat it as effectively a referendum on independence, and they state that if they win a majority they will negotiate for independence.

Of course, a UK government could just continue to dismiss every idea above. The problem with that is it suggests Scotland isn't in a voluntary union, and that there is now no peaceful, democratic way for it to assert its right to self-determination. We know from history what usually follows then...

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119249320#Comment_119249320

And it was made abundantly clear which countries are unequal partners.