Scottish independence

A Dub in Glasgo

11th and 12th October are the dates for the Supreme Court hearing. The judges could

1. Side with Scottish govt
2. Side with UK govt
3. Side with no-one as it is a hypothetical case

The last one is what the judges decided in the Keatings case last year (the one where the UK and Scottish governments were on the same side) and nothing has changed since in my view

pixelburp

Well, that was a chuckle. Sunak managed to balls up a simple question on the issue of Scotland, and whether he would or had spent time there ... by answering about a government office he set up in Darlington. Sometimes an emoji truly is the best response: 🤦 the SNP social media wizards will be salivating.

The beauty of this gaffe being that he not only showed (accidental??) ignorance of Scotland - but of his own damn country's geography, and how he'll continue to be another South of England Tory.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20292052.rishi-sunak-appears-believe-darlington-scotland/

Sam Russell

That is no worse the the many gaffes by Truss - even the Tea Sock got in on the act.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119370194#Comment_119370194

It is worse than that - he is the MP for Richmond North Yorkshire which is 25 miles south of Darlington.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119371206#Comment_119371206

Oh I do agree Truss is the larger Gaff Machine in this shakeup, but specifically for the Scottish question it's an awful moment of Anglocentric presumption, one that plays into this idea that as far as the English are concerned, anything North of the Watford Gap is a big vague blob of "The North". Something to be patronised or dismissed as not a priority. Only even heard of the news via family in Scotland, and while they laughed it off, also treated it with a degree of unsurprised tedium.

Sam Russell

The Tories may consider that anything north of the Watford Gap is 'the north', but that leaves all of Scotland and two thirds of England, plus ignores Wales.

Talk about Westminster-centric!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119299796#Comment_119299796

Latest Panelbase poll has yes on 51%, no on 49 (don't knows excluded). Poll was done on 1st July. Its tightened up a bit since the Yougov poll of 23rd May where the no's were ahead by 10%.

https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119373531#Comment_119373531

The Don't knows matter.

Yes needs to be over 50% without excluding the Don't knows. Even then, it would be better to be clearly in the 60% region. Losing this 2nd chance finishes the question for ever (in effect). Even winning by 52% is a bit naff - who would force such a narrow victory on the losers?

.

Grassey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119373613#Comment_119373613

Ohhh maybe the Tories and DUP 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Mr.Nice Guy

This is an uncompromising position from Truss.

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1553666583851065346

So even if the electorate give a massive endorsement to the pro-independence position, she is going to ignore it. This is a dangerous game the Tories are playing. Is there or is there not a democratic pathway for Scotland to achieve independence?

BonnieSituation

The reaction online in Scotland had been as expected. The Tories just need to keep this idiocy up.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119413419#Comment_119413419

Remember those who presumed Johnson's departure would be a nail in the independence coffin? Scottish unionists will wish his return.

Truss' use of American lingo - "not on my watch" - feels needless but also quite obnoxious. I look forward to seeing the Yes vote in the coming days and weeks.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119413566#Comment_119413566

So long as they're active voters in Scotland, it won't matter. I expect it will manifest in polling mind.

rolling boh

I think even if they had a vote now the result at the end of it would be to stay . Just like the last time when all the money issues etc are debated people who might be wavering will back down . The next vote has to when the yes side have a good lead or else it's gone for years .

Mr.Nice Guy

Truss is at it again tonight during a Tory hustings in Exeter:

https://twitter.com/themajorityscot/status/1554191432637980672

Tories are lapping this up but I think it will prove a very counter-productive strategy.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119416951#Comment_119416951

It's only going to get uglier, isn't it? Johnson will prove to have been a comparatively more charming, outreaching PM than this thunderingly foolish Thatcher cosplayer. I know Sturgeon isn't universally beloved by Scots but ye gods what a message being sent.

When push comes to shove, Scots are expected to know their place. Holyrood just a little playtime jig to plàmàs the more rambunctious northerners.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119417689#Comment_119417689

Yep. The Conservative & Unionist party continues to undermine the union for short term political gain. The whole thing is just so odious. I remember thinking how bland a debate I watched on RTÉ was just before I left Ireland in 2011. This is just so much worse.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119417826#Comment_119417826

It's all dependent on whether the Scottish appetite for independence grows - but at this rate, when the nominal parental figure in a supposed family of countries basically says "you are nothing", where else can this go? To be a fly on the wall of Scottish Conservative's HQ: you'd have to presume they hate their English brethren for furthering their irrelevance north of Berwick. While Sturgeon's PR team are probably laughing themselves silly.

And I know joke posts or tweets aren't allowed or encouraged in this forum, but given this deviation is based on Truss' own snark ... the obvious follow-ups have been shared on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1554196629078642693

Fr Tod Umptious

Honest question.

What do people think Labour's attitude to allowing a new referendum would be if they were to be in power?

My own personal opinion is that they would equally be less in favour of it as the Conservatives are.

The reason being is that up to about 15 years ago Scotland was a big seat winner for Labour, this century they were pulling 40+ seats from it.

That's the kind of number that gets you a majority.

If Labour could get their act together they could start winning back seats in Scotland from those not totally enamored with the SNP.

It's hard I know because of FPTP but possible.

And if they did that why would they then risk losing that to a referendum.

Winning UK general elections for Labour is much harder without Scotland than with, so why would they shoot themselves in the foot and risk giving away Scotland and their future election prospects for years to come?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418378#Comment_119418378

They have lost Scotland.

They could win it back, but only if Scotland is independent. The SNP might just disintegrate into factions after independence.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418378#Comment_119418378

These are all excellent points.

However Labour has been unable to really position themselves against the Conservatives.

We all know that Brexit doesn't work, and if Labour ran a pro EU campaign they would probably have a straight win, at least in my speculation.

But Labour can't even do that, Starmer recently distanced himself from the EU as well.

Scottish Independence has been one of my main worries ever since the Brexit referendum. It was as early as they day of the result, - what's going to happen to Scotland, was my first thought.

Whilst there may be a case for an independent Scotland in light of Brexit, I don't think it'll ever work with the SNP.

The SNP is way too far on the left, way too far off on military and defence matters, too much anti-nuclear in energy matters, no idea about finances or which currency Scotland would be using or how much money is being received each year from London, and also the time frame for a re-entry into the EU and even NATO is totally unclear.

Of course to the SNP these matters are all no concerns at all. Everything bad goes to London, everything good stays in Scotland.

Sturgeon will probably resign a couple of years after independence, not wanting to be blamed for all the economic hardship.

It'll be the same as Brexit, none of those who started it, could do it, and those who stayed failed or were driven out. Cameron left, May wasn't able to do it, and now Johnson is leaving and whoever succeeds him will have a hard time. Scottish independence could be very much the same, I honestly suspect it will be.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418417#Comment_119418417

Absolutely

Scottish independence is another Brexit in the making regardless of what the pro independence people tell us

Their promises are just a different type of unicorn.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418391#Comment_119418391

But have they lost Scotland?

In 1997 the Conservatives got wiped out in Scotland, zero seats, and hovered with just one for years.

But in 2017 bounced back with 13.

Consider this, the current Conservative government is a mess.

If Labour get their act together (big if) before the next election a lot of voters in Scotland may side with Labour because they are the best chance of getting rid of the Conservatives.

With independence still polling in the low 50% there are a lot of people not convinced about the idea, so moves away from SNP to Labour to oust the Conservatives in London is not out of the question.

And if Labour get into power, why would they risk losing Scotland.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418417#Comment_119418417

As has been said on this thread many times before, the Scottish political landscape post independence will almost certinaly look very different to the current one. There will be a split within the SNP with some joining whatever the conservatives will re-brand themselves as, some joining Labour or the Liberals, though a rump SNP may well remain.

An interesting comparison/contrast with Ireland is that 100 years after independence, not only do we still have Sinn Fein, they are the dominant party north and south.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418605#Comment_119418605

SF are not the dominant party in the south.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418378#Comment_119418378

Seems to me that British Labour have done the same thing as FF here. Made themselves too similar to the Tories and now have no identity/USP of their own.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418652#Comment_119418652

They could get around that very easily, but alas it doesn't seem to be the plan.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418548#Comment_119418548

I've always seen it that way. Scottish independence is a dumb populist answer to a dumb populist Brexit. Nothing thought through, and mandates created by historic reasons, medieval battles in Scotland, colonialist London attitudes not accepting the rules of an EU-community and all that not focused on the modern future.

Both Brexiteers and Scottish independence supporters live in the past.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418605#Comment_119418605

Sinn Fein seems purely on the left and their political idea seems fixed on a possible reunification of Ireland. Part of their recent success seems to be that they're the only ones taking the housing crisis seriously. If Irish reunification would be achieved at some point, the Sinn Fein would lose any kind of right to exist, other than being something on the political left.

Ireland 100 years ago and after independence had the advantage from the beginning that the backing of the Irish in exile, like in the US, existed right from the start. That backing had, ever since the end of WW2, more and more financial and economic investment implications for Ireland which is even happening today and fueled the Celtic tiger economy as well. I doubt very much that Scotland would have the same backing. Scotland's industry, like in shipbuilding would probably suffer, it's hard to imagine that the rest of the UK would award them defence contracts. And Standard Life or Scottish Widows would probably relocate to the rest of the UK, to service there UK clients, plus there are the Scottish public finances to be considered, or the financial backing of NHS Scotland.

And then there would be the question that voters in the UK would finally wake up, and adopt a stronger pro EU approach again.

Something like Norway, or Switzerland, or Gibraltar. Incidentally, Gibraltar is British, left the EU, but is part of Schengen, even Spaniards are working in Gibraltar, commuting in and out every day, no chaos like Dover. They seem to have solved it, Brexit UK didn't regardless of Truss or Sunak gets the job.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418785#Comment_119418785

I think it's very easy to be reductive about the "point" of independence from the point of view and comfort of a country who has had 100 years of its own independence from a far-from-equal union of "nations". Nationhood and the sense of self-determination is complicated; moreso when the grouping is part of what's supposed to be a clutch of equals, rowing in the same direction.

National independence has to contain a degree of emotive reasoning; otherwise why have nations at all, and not just one superstate from the NW Atlantic to the Bosphorus? And who decides where borders are drawn? We can't all have the convenience of islands to define where one Country ends and another starts.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418548#Comment_119418548

Brexit was about putting up boundaries with the rest of Europe, turning inwards, limiting immigration, a nostalgia for an empire that is gone. Scottish independence is about seeking to return to the EU, looking outwards, opening up immigration, disregarding the desire to be an important world player (SNP want to get rid of nuclear weapons for example). They are very different policies reflecting two very different countries.

As regards Labour, Starmer set his stall out a few weeks back saying he wanted to make Brexit work. That in effect was giving up on Scotland since the majority of Scots want to be in the EU (and were told in the last referendum to vote No if they wanted to protect EU membership).

If you are a Scot that wants your nation to be a small to medium power within the EU like an Ireland, Denmark, etc. and you oppose this lurch to the far right that is going on south of the border, what are you supposed to do? Backing the Tories is out of the question, but now Labour are showing that they aren't going to deviate significantly from the Tory view on Brexit because they're afraid of losing the 'red wall' voters, i.e. those older English folks that are fed up of foreigners, hate Brussels, and want to believe in a fictitious 'Global Britain'. If Scots want a different brand of politics and are appalled at what is happening in England, there is only really one option left now.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418876#Comment_119418876

The problem I see in Scotland is that there are a lot of domestic issues at hand, where the SNP continuously failed to address them, even to solve them.

And Sturgeon and the SNP are constantly deviating from domestic problems and looking at independence, as if independence would solve everything.

Also there is the referendum itself to consider. The polls for independence after Brexit seem to suggest a steady 52 % majority wishing to remain part of the UK, and a 48% for independence, and that at the best of times. This would mean, that any 2nd referendum would produce a similar result, and in the case of a majority for independence, I don't think it will be an overwhelming one. - the result may be similar to the Brexit referendum, 51 to maybe 54 % for independence, the rest wishing to remain within the UK.

If neither the referendum produces an overwhelming majority for independence and the SNP having nothing but populist plans for an independent Scotland, that's all a perfect storm for failure, - similarly to Brexit.