Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

mahoney_j

Panch18 wrote: »

I'd sell the cows before i would give anybody a 12 week old perfectly healthy calf for free

Modern day slavery is what it would be if it came to that

I’d be inclined to agree but times are changing

mahoney_j

jaymla627 wrote: »

Then bring them to slaughter yourself and tie up the capital/labour/and facilities needed all to take whatever crumbs the factory will give you. I'd rather take a 200 euro hit on giving away calves at that age then bringing them any further given the state of the beef market

Reluctantly agree with you ,your point is now reality

Panch18

mahoney_j wrote: »

I’d be inclined to agree but times are changing

Times are changing because the agenda is being driven by whoever shouts the loudest, facts and reality don't seem to come into things anymore - which is far bigger than a farming problem, it seems to be a societal problem from what i can see

If we could get a 12 week old calf for free then we'd swap the cows for a calf rearing enterprise, in a heartbeat

Danzy

Restrictions, terms and limits will come in in the next few years that are related to animal welfare, they will turn they way it was always done on its head and the authorities here and in the EU will not care if people like it, have to mind calves at a loss , give them away for free or make money.

The only thing certain is that this set up will change beyond recognition.

jaymla627

Panch18 wrote: »

Weren't you moaning only a few pages back about this spring you could have saved yourself thousands if you could have shot them instead of getting them exported at 3 weeks - and now you're talking about forcing fellas to keep them for 12 weeks, I don't get your logic?

Well i'd much rather be the fella getting 12 week old calves for free than the fella giving them away that's for sure, because there would only be 1 mug in that transaction

The booby calf option looks like its going to be off the table, I'm not talking about forcing anyone it's going to be the only outlet for them, unless beef men are prepared to indefinitely keep at it., losing money and solving the dairy man's problem....
Hows it logical that its outrageous to contemplate the dairy farmer has to feel a bit of financial pain but its deemed perfectly acceptable the calf to beef man loses his shirt and uses his sfp to survive

Bass Reeves

jaymla627 wrote: »

Then bring them to slaughter yourself and tie up the capital/labour/and facilities needed all to take whatever crumbs the factory will give you. I'd rather take a 200 euro hit on giving away calves at that age then bringing them any further given the state of the beef market

The problem for dairymen bringing calf to beef is that because of nitrates they tend to beef them as early as possible. That means that the heifers are pushed to slaughter at 20 months and bullocks at 24. This suit processor's as it a supply of cheap winter finished beef. Lads are anxious to have them gone early for labour and housing reasons.

Denmark should be 8 weeks not 5. Missprint by me. However I expect if calves are have to be reared to this or a later stage unless beef prices stay below 4/kg well rested calves will have certain value. At 8 weeks even without export competition FR calves would have about a 100 euro value not enough to cover costs but near enough to. If 12 weeks was the limit it would definitely have lads interested in calf to beef schemes if the calf was coming at a competitive price and reared right. Even lads on poorer land could be tempted into a calf to store system

Base price

mahoney_j wrote: »

I’d be inclined to agree but times are changing

Factory beef specs have changed in the last few years. Dairy/cross beef is now the preferred option for supermarket packaging.
I attended the meeting in Cavan and was amazed at the lack of what I call "on the ground reality" that was coming from the speakers at the top table. Their opinion was that although it was a dairy problem it was going to be the beef farmer that solves it for them by rearing these calves through partnership type arrangements. I came away from the meeting thinking that the only winner going forward is Larry and the boys with copious amounts of cheap beef coming their way.

mahoney_j

Panch18 wrote: »

Times are changing because the agenda is being driven by whoever shouts the loudest, facts and reality don't seem to come into things anymore - which is far bigger than a farming problem, it seems to be a societal problem from what i can see

If we could get a 12 week old calf for free then we'd swap the cows for a calf rearing enterprise, in a heartbeat

Wow ,even with beef industry in its current state ,in my situation no way it makes sense if I did I’d be swapping profitable ainmals for unprofitable .due to nitrates constraints re stocking rates also a non runner

wrangler

Even around here it's unreal the expansion /new startups that's going on, and this wasn't a dairy area.
another local sheep farmer converting, 600 + ewes + tillage, He's reported to be spending €1.5m on infrastructure alone.
There'll be another 900 ewe sheep farm converted by the end of next year too.
I wonder do people know what the increase in calf nos will be next spring

mf240

Gone mad around here too. Everyone getting in or adding a hundred more cows

Base price

wrangler wrote: »

Even around here it's unreal the expansion /new startups that's going on, and this wasn't a dairy area.
another local sheep farmer converting, 600 + ewes + tillage, He's reported to be spending €1.5m on infrastructure alone.
There'll be another 900 ewe sheep farm converted by the end of next year too.
I wonder do people know what the increase in calf nos will be next spring

From memory Pat Dillion said at the meeting that there will be additional 400k calves next year.

Buford T. Justice XIX

wrangler wrote: »

Even around here it's unreal the expansion /new startups that's going on, and this wasn't a dairy area.
another local sheep farmer converting, 600 + ewes + tillage, He's reported to be spending €1.5m on infrastructure alone.
There'll be another 900 ewe sheep farm converted by the end of next year too.
I wonder do people know what the increase in calf nos will be next spring

2 new entrants in the Kerry catchment this year and possibly the same next year.

Bass Reeves

Base price wrote: »

From memory Pat Dillion said at the meeting that there will be additional 400k calves next year.

I presume that is with reference to quota years. At present as dairy expansion gas slowed extra calves are coming into the market as less are retained as heifers for milking. Cull cows are also increasing in number. We cannot sustain current beef prices at sub 3.5/kg. As this is pushed back onto the store man he will exit or certainly downsize.

Dairy beef is profitable at present sty about 4/kg Beef price with decent calf types. You would want 20-30c/kg more for some if the more extreme HO and poorer quality AA. Jex's and suckler's need a price of near 5/kg to leave a justifiable margin

wrangler

Base price wrote: »

From memory Pat Dillion said at the meeting that there will be additional 400k calves next year.

Those two sheep farms will be near 1000 cows between them, both are planning rotary parlours

Panch18

mahoney_j wrote: »

Wow ,even with beef industry in its current state ,in my situation no way it makes sense if I did I’d be swapping profitable ainmals for unprofitable .due to nitrates constraints re stocking rates also a non runner

I know plenty of full time beef lads - many with full or most of the time employees. In fact i know more beef and tillage lads with employees than i do dairy fellas with full time employees. It's easy to loose sight of how all time consuming dairy is.

Imagine trying to rear all your calves onto 12 weeks, that's 9 weeks extra work for each calf. As well as trying to get your cows out to grass, get your breeding season going. You'd be at silage before you'd have a calf sold, sorry given away

And then the cashflow implications - incurring costs at a time when cashflow is minimal, big expenses of fertiliser etc in the spring, not much from milk sales. you'd have to wonder when most spring calving herds would actually get clear

That was fine when fellas had 60 cows and were rearing the calves to store as an enterprise - but when you are talking of numbers from 100 upwards in the scenario's being mentioned here then it is seriously time to think of a different way of earning your living

alps

Panch18 wrote: »

That was fine when fellas had 60 cows and were rearing the calves to store as an enterprise - but when you are talking of numbers from 100 upwards in the scenario's being mentioned here then it is seriously time to think of a different way of earning your living

The question was though Panch, who did he think would rear the calves and the stores that he used to?

Bass Reeves

alps wrote: »

The question was though Panch, who did he think would rear the calves and the stores that he used to?

It nearly two years since I bought a weanling. But dairy farmers were the worst to deal with. The cal was worth X at 3 weeks if sold to s exporter he cost Y in milk and ration so he had to sell for X+Y and Z if a margin. I told.more than one lad that was not the way Larry worked. The other thing was they assumed that you should be happy with a margin of 150 euro between 6 months and slaughter. The other issue is when most ran beef operations they never factored in the full cost of bringing an animal to finish. The cows covered all other costs

Panch18

alps wrote: »

The question was though Panch, who did he think would rear the calves and the stores that he used to?

I suppose most dairy farmers gave it the same consideration that Teagasc did

Bass Reeves

Panch18 wrote: »

I suppose most dairy farmers gave it the same consideration that Teagasc did

There was a discussion on boards a few years ago regarding calf prices. I made the point that dairy farmers always assumed that all calves had a positive value at birth and this was not a given. To which they added the cost of calf rearing. Over the last 3-5 years a lot of them priotized milk value (as they had to milk the cow anyway) over calf value which they considered they were not rewarded for. They adopted easy calving bulls and sold the calf as early as possible to push extra milk production.

Now we know that not all calves have a positive value

Siamsa Sessions

Maybe Teagasc should get Nassim Taleb over to talk about being “antifragile”

- Stick to simple rules
- Build in redundancy and layers (no single point of failure)
- Resist the urge to suppress randomness
- Make sure that you have your soul in the game
- Experiment and tinker — take lots of small risks
- Avoid risks that, if lost, would wipe you out completely
- Don’t get consumed by data
- Keep your options open
- Focus more on avoiding things that don’t work than trying to find out what does work
- Respect the old — look for habits and rules that have been around for a long time

Taken from: https://fs.blog/2014/10/an-antifragile-way-of-life/

alps

Panch18 wrote: »

I suppose most dairy farmers gave it the same consideration that Teagasc did

Reckon so...

Looking through some research at lunch time, that was done under the research stimulus fund and some specific to expansion and its effects on cow health etc, and so far to fi d one that even mentions calves as a stress point..

The expansion was really erection driven...in and out get it done...

Ask for forgiveness later...

mahoney_j

Panch18 wrote: »

I know plenty of full time beef lads - many with full or most of the time employees. In fact i know more beef and tillage lads with employees than i do dairy fellas with full time employees. It's easy to loose sight of how all time consuming dairy is.

Imagine trying to rear all your calves onto 12 weeks, that's 9 weeks extra work for each calf. As well as trying to get your cows out to grass, get your breeding season going. You'd be at silage before you'd have a calf sold, sorry given away

And then the cashflow implications - incurring costs at a time when cashflow is minimal, big expenses of fertiliser etc in the spring, not much from milk sales. you'd have to wonder when most spring calving herds would actually get clear

That was fine when fellas had 60 cows and were rearing the calves to store as an enterprise - but when you are talking of numbers from 100 upwards in the scenario's being mentioned here then it is seriously time to think of a different way of earning your living

Tbf a lot of the beef snd tillage boys have a nice big wedge of money in the form
Of bps comming in at end of every year

Panch18

mahoney_j wrote: »

Tbf a lot of the beef snd tillage boys have a nice big wedge of money in the form
Of bps comming in at end of every year

no doubt about it Jay on the BPS

But aren't they better off than being stuck under a cows arse 300 days a year.

Base price

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There was a discussion on boards a few years ago regarding calf prices. I made the point that dairy farmers always assumed that all calves had a positive value at birth and this was not a given. To which they added the cost of calf rearing. Over the last 3-5 years a lot of them priotized milk value (as they had to milk the cow anyway) over calf value which they considered they were not rewarded for. They adopted easy calving bulls and sold the calf as early as possible to push extra milk production.

Not now not all calves have a positive value

Another point that was pushed at the meeting was for farmers to use bulls off the dairy/beef panel. Someone posted here that the top 20 have a calving index of 2 or less. Anyone feeding dairy cross stock to finish will tell you that the performance (dw) of some of these bulls is comparable to bad quality jex’s yet this was the solution put forward.
As I said earlier I don’t know what the answer is but I went to the meeting to see what way officialdom was thinking. There is no point being in the game unless you have the tools to adapt with change.

Panch18

Base price wrote: »

Another point that was pushed at the meeting was for farmers to use bulls off the dairy/beef panel. Someone posted here that the top 20 have a calving index of 2 or less. Anyone feeding dairy cross stock to finish will tell you that the performance (dw) of some of these bulls is comparable to bad quality jex’s yet this was the solution put forward.
As I said earlier I don’t know what the answer is but I went to the meeting to see what way officialdom was thinking. There is no point being in the game unless you have the tools to adapt with change.

Who was talking at this event Base??

mahoney_j

Panch18 wrote: »

no doubt about it Jay on the BPS

But aren't they better off than being stuck under a cows arse 300 days a year.

Fair point !!!!!

Panch18

alps wrote: »

Reckon so...

Looking through some research at lunch time, that was done under the research stimulus fund and some specific to expansion and its effects on cow health etc, and so far to fi d one that even mentions calves as a stress point..

The expansion was really erection driven...in and out get it done...

Ask for forgiveness later...

Jay has mentioned on here several times when he asked Laurence Shalloo how we were going to market the extra milk and was shut down

that says it all to me about Teagasc, they don't give a damn about farmers from a financial, emotional or mental view point. Just milk the god damn cows and don't ask questions

jaymla627

wrangler wrote: »

Even around here it's unreal the expansion /new startups that's going on, and this wasn't a dairy area.
another local sheep farmer converting, 600 + ewes + tillage, He's reported to be spending €1.5m on infrastructure alone.
There'll be another 900 ewe sheep farm converted by the end of next year too.
I wonder do people know what the increase in calf nos will be next spring

Have they the calf housing in place and skilled labour to rear all their calves in these new start-ups where huge numbers are going through the system from the get go, calf rearing and doing it right is a skill that's sorely lacking on alot of farms the day of the wife doing it and doing it well is long gone, you literally need the patience of a saint and even more so when training in beef calves to feeders, and patience isn't easily found on a dairy farm in the Spring with long days and heifers taking lumps out of you at milking

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

Even around here it's unreal the expansion /new startups that's going on, and this wasn't a dairy area.
another local sheep farmer converting, 600 + ewes + tillage, He's reported to be spending €1.5m on infrastructure alone.
There'll be another 900 ewe sheep farm converted by the end of next year too.
I wonder do people know what the increase in calf nos will be next spring

When everyone is running in one direction start walking quietly in the opposite they will finally catch up

wrangler

jaymla627 wrote: »

Have they the calf housing in place and skilled labour to rear all their calves in these new start-ups where huge numbers are going through the system from the get go, calf rearing and doing it right is a skill that's sorely lacking on alot of farms the day of the wife doing it and doing it well is long gone, you literally need the patience of a saint and even more so when training in beef calves to feeders, and patience isn't easily found on a dairy farm in the Spring with long days and heifers taking lumps out of you at milking

`

Reports are that they're partnerships with experienced guys.
I wonder will these sheep farm conversions have any effect on lamb trade.A lot of ewes are being culled to make room