Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

Do people not realise that dairy guys are expanding just to stay in yhe business and that we are in the same margin falling situation that beef is just not as intense. Most guys will tell you that all they have done despite increased numbers is just maintained their position

I agree entirely. But big brands are very protective in general of there brand names. I like to see the Coke contract with Frontera. However we have to understand it for produce for the US or Asian markets big multinational PLC's will bring in a standard and expect it at or cheaper than the previous price. That where we are with beef at present. Dairy farmers got sucked into the expansion hype thinking milk price would not only stay the same but match cost rises.

Up to 3-4 years ago beef prices around Christmas was 4.2 base and r/U grade sucker quality bulls made that or more. What will we be at this year. Bulls are not wanted. Rations were in he 200-220/ton range now we are =/-250/ton. Calf quality has declined. If the base is 3.5/kg we are back over 200/head on steers and bulls are nearer 300/head.

In such a senario what is the calf worth next spring.

Neddyusa

Albert Johnson wrote: »

Fair play Amacca for offering a viewpoint from a sector of farmers that have been totally neglected in recent years in favor of buzz words such as expansion and efficiency at all costs. I do believe that we're fast approaching the point of no return on several issues regarding agriculture in this country and yet there's no appetite for change of any measure.

Something that has occurred to me of late is that the worst thing to happen beef farming in this country imo is so called "efficiency". Efficiency without profitablity is a non runner in my experience and I'm of the opinion that we're seeing the results of this atm. Increased efficiency is the stock answer for all queries relating to profitability in recent years. Some oxygen thief with more money than sense is then paraded out as a teagasc poster boy having spent lorry loads of cash so that he could end up with a bundle of fancy weanlings, a shed full of cows for the winter and lots of ideas for a placard at the next beef protests.

All state funded efforts have failed to show a profit despite limitless resources because it's all but impossible to win with the current strangle hold a select few have over the industry. No matter how hard you try there's always something else to blame for low (no) returns but try harder and next year will be different we're told. It's an eternal case of "this time next year Rodney" only that next year the goal posts have changed, the price has gone down and we're running harder and harder to stand still. There's problems every where but no solutions from what I can see without​ a total over haul of the way we do business but seemingly the power's that be have zero interest in the like. At the minute it's a case of tails they win and head's we lose in my opinion anyway. I wish my dairy farmer brethren continued success but I do believe that when there finished with us poor fools in the beef sector that the so called "white gold" is next.

Albert you are dead right RE "efficiency" and beef farming.

https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ijameu/175077.html

I wrote this almost 8 years ago and it was not at all well received by Teagasc at the time - to say that economically efficient beef farmers were the ones reducing numbers and running lower stocking rates.
Some people didn't want to hear that back then - despite all the evidence.

mahoney_j

K.G. wrote: »

Do people not realise that dairy guys are expanding just to stay in yhe business and that we are in the same margin falling situation that beef is just not as intense. Most guys will tell you that all they have done despite increased numbers is just maintained their position

Nail in head

mahoney_j

Albert Johnson wrote: »

There's been no dairying here or indeed locally in my lifetime so I'm not very well versed in the day to day workings of the industry but I was led to believe that it was experiencing a relative boom in recent years. I had assumed that much of the expansion and rise in new entrants was due to the removal of the shackles of quota and the chance of a fair reward for the effort expended. Perhaps​ I was wrong to have made this assumption and that the dread term "efficiency" was again at play.

If so and that much of the expansion is simply due to running faster to stand still then it's not a promising sign and mirrors what has occurred in the beef sector for the last 5+ years. The idea that the dairy boom is a thing of the past means that seemingly no one is safe from the wrath of the processor's and the whole house of cards is about to come crashing down upon us. To paraphrase Dick Gaughan, "If we don't fight soon they'll be nothing left to save".

Lots of myths out there re dairy for last few years ,yes it’s profitable but not as profitable as lads are led to believe by likes of tegasc etc ,they shovel out false misleading costs from profit monitors every year from a very small number of farmers that imply we can produce milk for high teens ,low 20s cop ,but shur were slaves we work for free our land is free and we pay no capital on loans we have

Bass Reeves

mahoney_j wrote: »

Lots of myths out there re dairy for last few years ,yes it’s profitable but not as profitable as lads are led to believe by likes of tegasc etc ,they shovel out false misleading costs from profit monitors every year from a very small number of farmers that imply we can produce milk for high teens ,low 20s cop ,but shur were slaves we work for free our land is free and we pay no capital on loans we have

The problem with Teagasc FJ and others is they promoted this idea that we could all achieve what the top 10% did. However often these were farms on very good land quality and no doubt excellent operators. But in any industry not only the top 10% make a profit. Now we have the situation that Teagasc are closing down the better farm project. Is it because in beef these farms are now all unprofitable and profitability is droping in milk

mahoney_j

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The problem with Teagasc FJ and others is they promoted this idea that we could all achieve what the top 10% did. However often these were farms on very good land quality and no doubt excellent operators. But in any industry not only the top 10% make a profit. Now we have the situation that Teagasc are closing down the better farm project. Is it because in beef these farms are now all unprofitable and profitability is droping in milk

Problem with the figures they quote is that they are misleading and missing crucial figures which if included would take the gloss off it

jaymla627

mahoney_j wrote: »

Problem with the figures they quote is that they are misleading and missing crucial figures which if included would take the gloss off it

Bigger issue is their doubling down on their grass based low cost message when their whole ideology is about to be blown to bits over the next few years re nitrates/calf issue/ and a seriously ageing farmjng demographic which will have a huge impact when alot of father/son teams will become one man bands as time catches up on the older generation and the business isn't returning the margin to replace this labour

patsy_mccabe

'Beef price critical in making €1,000/ha margin in dairy calf to beef systems’

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/beef-price-critical-making-e1000ha-margin-dairy-calf-beef-systems/

Siamsa Sessions

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The problem with Teagasc FJ and others is they promoted this idea that we could all achieve what the top 10% did. However often these were farms on very good land quality and no doubt excellent operators. But in any industry not only the top 10% make a profit. Now we have the situation that Teagasc are closing down the better farm project. Is it because in beef these farms are now all unprofitable and profitability is droping in milk

I tried to copy all Teagasc advice when I started back farming in 2015, aiming for their stocking rate targets, etc. Where I fell down was scale - all their data comes from relatively big farms, but the economy of scale doesn't transfer to smaller operators or those of us who don't want to take on big debt. That's the caveat that should be included in all Teagasc publications.

It's almost like they're promoting the American Dream - you too could be a millionaire if only you worked hard

Bass Reeves

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

I tried to copy all Teagasc advice when I started back farming in 2015, aiming for their stocking rate targets, etc. Where I fell down was scale - all their data comes from relatively big farms, but the economy of scale doesn't transfer to smaller operators or those of us who don't want to take on big debt. That's the caveat that should be included in all Teagasc publications.

It's almost like they're promoting the American Dream - you too could be a millionaire if only you worked hard

As beef started to become a part time operation on smaller farms Teagasc and FJ still pursued the dream of the FT beef farmer. Look at the project farms set up all were on goodish land and all were in the 200 acre region.All were based on a lad working extremely long hours to achieve an average industrial wage. None were based on the reality of what was happening on the ground.

Siamsa Sessions

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As beef started to become a part time operation on smaller farms Teagasc and FJ still pursued the dream of the FT beef farmer. Look at the project farms set up all were on goodish land and all were in the 200 acre region.All were based on a lad working extremely long hours to achieve an average industrial wage. None were based on the reality of what was happening on the ground.

Lots of lads on the ground still in denial too. Was at another hustings event last night and the three candidates were all asked the same thing in a few different ways. Some lads glossed it up a bit but others more or less said straight out, "What will you do so I can stay as a full-time suckler farmer?"

I wouldn't knock any fella trying to keep the show on the road at home, but modern transport/logistics and political trade deals pushed by powerful lobbyists mean the world is a very changed place.

Teagasc's remit needs to be updated, away from "technical efficiency" which is just another way of saying producing more and doing it faster. Either they or some new body needs to help us create value via niche products and alternative enterprises. We need more business support and less "drive that stake over there"

Markcheese

It's scale, it's all about scale... If dairying can be mechanised and computerised more worldwide then expect the world price to drop.... (at the moment the oil price is going up so chances are milk price will rise in the short term)
Beef cattle kinda the same..(world wide), cattle can be finished in giant feed lots, buy in grain, and byproducts, throw in the minimum of fodder, hormones and antibiotics as required to keep production up,
Now trying to keep up with that in a small family farm environment, where land prices are really high, ain't gonna work...

Danzy

In many ways the last 10 years have seen changes to farming as big as the introduction of the tractor.

Some as big as seem in the history of farming here one being that for the first time known, the richer in society are eating less beef year on year.

Our biggest competition isn't in this country or continent but now on the other side of the planet.

Primary inputs have accelerated to levels and stayed there.

10 years ago in farming, might as well be 2 lifetimes ago.

wrangler

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Lots of lads on the ground still in denial too. Was at another hustings event last night and the three candidates were all asked the same thing in a few different ways. Some lads glossed it up a bit but others more or less said straight out, "What will you do so I can stay as a full-time suckler farmer?"

I wouldn't knock any fella trying to keep the show on the road at home, but modern transport/logistics and political trade deals pushed by powerful lobbyists mean the world is a very changed place.

Teagasc's remit needs to be updated, away from "technical efficiency" which is just another way of saying producing more and doing it faster. Either they or some new body needs to help us create value via niche products and alternative enterprises. We need more business support and less "drive that stake over there"

I agree on farmers in denial, you'd always be hoping though, there's been plenty of bad times in farming, the end of the eighties saw a lot of farmers in trouble, yet around the corner came generous subsidies and we were away again.
There's no doubt I've been forecasting the end of farming for the last five years, yet I'm three years into my lease and I know now I should've sold the land because, if we keep going the way we're going , land will be difficult to sell in seven more years......... so even I was in denial

Bass Reeves

Markcheese wrote: »

It's scale, it's all about scale... If dairying can be mechanised and computerised more worldwide then expect the world price to drop.... (at the moment the oil price is going up so chances are milk price will rise in the short term)
Beef cattle kinda the same..(world wide), cattle can be finished in giant feed lots, buy in grain, and byproducts, throw in the minimum of fodder, hormones and antibiotics as required to keep production up,
Now trying to keep up with that in a small family farm environment, where land prices are really high, ain't gonna work...

Not with beef. Feedlot beef is much more expensive to produce than grass fed beef. The average Beef animal with out hormones need a scale of 13-1 to gain a kg of weight and that is LW killing at 50% on average you need a 26-1 feed ratio to produce a kg of beef carcasse. Assuming mixed high energy diets cost you 25c/kg DM its about 6.5/kg of beef produced in Ireland

Chickens are about 1.6-1 (or 2-2.5/kg meat carcass) and pigs 4-1 or about 5-1/kg of meat carcass. You still need someone to get the animal to within 100-120 days of finishing for feedlot cattle. In general cattle can not stay on a high grain diet longer than that even bulls or hormone treated cattle can only get to 150 days approx.
Finally hormone treated cattle react a bit like bulls and there efficiency is about 8-10/kg of LW or between 15 and 18/kg of carcass produced or about 4.25/kg in cost

jaymla627

Markcheese wrote: »

It's scale, it's all about scale... If dairying can be mechanised and computerised more worldwide then expect the world price to drop.... (at the moment the oil price is going up so chances are milk price will rise in the short term)
Beef cattle kinda the same..(world wide), cattle can be finished in giant feed lots, buy in grain, and byproducts, throw in the minimum of fodder, hormones and antibiotics as required to keep production up,
Now trying to keep up with that in a small family farm environment, where land prices are really high, ain't gonna work...

The only saving grace for dairyjng is it's a extremely perishable product combined with been hugely labour intensive and needing huge amounts of capital to establish in the first place and on going investment to keep the show ticking over, it's a hell of alot easier for the likes of Brazil to ramp up beef/grain production then have a stab at becoming a dairying powerhouse

Danzy

jaymla627 wrote: »

The only saving grace for dairyjng is it's a extremely perishable product combined with been hugely labour intensive and needing huge amounts of capital to establish in the first place and on going investment to keep the show ticking over, it's a hell of alot easier for the likes of Brazil to ramp up beef/grain production then have a stab at becoming a dairying powerhouse

Also a lot of the ground in Brazil is not fit for intensive agriculture over years.

It wears out, fertility wise if pushed hard, in much of it pushed at All.

So lot of it not fit for dairy.

That said it is the size of a continent.

Mad_maxx

wrangler wrote: »

I agree on farmers in denial, you'd always be hoping though, there's been plenty of bad times in farming, the end of the eighties saw a lot of farmers in trouble, yet around the corner came generous subsidies and we were away again.
There's no doubt I've been forecasting the end of farming for the last five years, yet I'm three years into my lease and I know now I should've sold the land because, if we keep going the way we're going , land will be difficult to sell in seven more years......... so even I was in denial

Land prices will fall going forward, everything points to it, both sale and rental prices

While there maybe a shortage of land for dairy farmers to get hold of now, the dire beef situation will force a significant number of drystock farmers to let out their land, thus increasing supply

Say my name

Danzy wrote: »

Also a lot of the ground in Brazil is not fit for intensive agriculture over years.

It wears out, fertility wise if pushed hard, in much of it pushed at All.

So lot of it not fit for dairy.

That said it is the size of a continent.

There's a hell of a lot of agricultural innovation going on in Brazil. All highly supported by the government to get as much money as possible into the country.
Dutch agricultural investment firms are the largest backers of production.

Soil wise they are looking/using any crushed rock dust type going if it fills the lack in the soil.
Multi species crops are being used to build soil. Now not to take from soil as is the norm here but to build soil. Talk from the biofarm conference of some farmers globally able to build soil at a rate of 1 inch per year and you can be hell sure the Brazilians know about this too.
Even the indigenous people technology of biochar is getting a bit of a revival out there now.

On the dairying they'll be the bargain basement world price with cereals and it's easy throw up indoor units. Hell maybe they don't have to be indoor even. But they'll have an abundant supply of grain and forage for any such ventures. Then there's the cheap labour aspect and no labour laws like here.

Timmaay

Russia is the same, massive increase in grain output, but thankfully nobody has bothered with milk processing.

jaymla627

Say my name wrote: »

There's a hell of a lot of agricultural innovation going on in Brazil. All highly supported by the government to get as much money as possible into the country.
Dutch agricultural investment firms are the largest backers of production.

Soil wise they are looking/using any crushed rock dust type going if it fills the lack in the soil.
Multi species crops are being used to build soil. Now not to take from soil as is the norm here but to build soil. Talk from the biofarm conference of some farmers globally able to build soil at a rate of 1 inch per year and you can be hell sure the Brazilians know about this too.
Even the indigenous people technology of biochar is getting a bit of a revival out there now.

On the dairying they'll be the bargain basement world price with cereals and it's easy throw up indoor units. Hell maybe they don't have to be indoor even. But they'll have an abundant supply of grain and forage for any such ventures. Then there's the cheap labour aspect and no labour laws like here.

Cost of production is still nearly 30 cent a litre for any Brazilian dairy farmers I've seen profiled, similar they would be having to spend 4 grand plus a cow in infrastructure for housed units, labour is another sticking point believe it our not, Brazilians dont like working on dairy farms and staff turnover is crazy high

Mooooo

jaymla627 wrote: »

Cost of production is still nearly 30 cent a litre for any Brazilian dairy farmers I've seen profiled, similar they would be having to spend 4 grand plus a cow in infrastructure for housed units, labour is another sticking point believe it our not, Brazilians dont like working on dairy farms and staff turnover is crazy high

Corruption also, carbery were going to do a joint venture down there but they couldn't work in the business environment and so pulled out of it afaik

Say my name

jaymla627 wrote: »

Cost of production is still nearly 30 cent a litre for any Brazilian dairy farmers I've seen profiled, similar they would be having to spend 4 grand plus a cow in infrastructure for housed units, labour is another sticking point believe it our not, Brazilians dont like working on dairy farms and staff turnover is crazy high

I don't know about all that but apparently China has approved 24 plants to export milk powder to China.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-farming-idUSKCN1UI2T7

kevthegaff

Very little red tape also, and probably slurry storage non existent, I'd say their cost of production would be very low

jaymla627

kevthegaff wrote: »

Very little red tape also, and probably slurry storage non existent, I'd say their cost of production would be very low

Average milk price their at the minute is 37 cent a litre, they are barely able to meet domestic demand at that price, and export basically nothing, doesn't matter where you produce milk in the world it cant be done on the cheap

Birdnuts

Timmaay wrote: »

Russia is the same, massive increase in grain output, but thankfully nobody has bothered with milk processing.

I think there was an article last week in the Farming Indo on the Russian Dairy industry - certainly seems to be expanding!!

Bass Reeves

Any indoor system or any grain based system finds it hard to operate on prices lower than the mid 30's. It immaterial biggest cost is usually feed and replacement costs. Most of these system have exceptionally high replacement rates with cows averaging two lactations even though each lactation could be longer than 12 months. All cows have to be bred for replacements.

Keepgrowing

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Good article in today's FI . Peter Hynes is a dairy farmer. From the tone of the article he expects that calves will have to be kept on farm until 40 days at least. He thinks it should be 8 weeks and that this should be the minimum slaughter age as well. He highlighted that in the UK the supermarket require this already for milk suppliers. He says the days if exporting 14 day old calves is gone.

Good old Peter, well settled on the bandwagon Ffs

kevthegaff

It does seem everyone is talking us into a crisis

yosemitesam1

kevthegaff wrote: »

It does seem everyone is talking us into a crisis

Remember hearing about research being done on stress levels in animals while being moved, the only time stress levels were elevated was at loading and unloading. Once animals had settled in lorry, it didn't make any difference to them how long they were in it