Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

Sacrolyte

Not so sure about that. At 100 cows he would probably be a one man operation and feel quite isolated when the preverbal hits the fan. At 400 cows he would surely have plenty of experience and expertise at hand on a day to day basis.
Further more the level of capital investment required for both is totally different and I’m not talking about strictly financial. Layout paddocks parlour accommodation etc would be totally different and as we know it’s not best practice adding on a piece meal basis. Much easier to do it all in one go.

wrangler

jaymla627 wrote: »

That will happen when their in the middle of calving and trying not to get decapitated by some flighty heifers, the whole tams grant has lads loading on huge numbers day one and having to mortgage the place to do so, if the above man started of with 100 cows and felt their way into dairying rather then a huge big bang start-up it would leave a lot smoother transition

John Payne has plenty of experience

Sacrolyte

wrangler wrote: »

John Payne has plenty of experience

He was awesome in “miracle on 34th street”

GrasstoMilk

jaymla627 wrote: »

That will happen when their in the middle of calving and trying not to get decapitated by some flighty heifers, the whole tams grant has lads loading on huge numbers day one and having to mortgage the place to do so, if the above man started of with 100 cows and felt their way into dairying rather then a huge big bang start-up it would leave a lot smoother transition

And what would he do with the rest of the land? Keep using it for beef or sheep?
Expand then over years and still need to a rotary? Would cost him alot more by the time he got to 400 than starting out at it

jaymla627

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

And what would he do with the rest of the land? Keep using it for beef or sheep?
Expand then over years and still need to a rotary? Would cost him alot more by the time he got to 400 than starting out at it

What would be wrong with a 20 unit bare bones parlour with pit and stall work for 30, still cant get over the horn lads have for rotary parlours, its not even the capital cost day one they cost a small fortune in maintenance once they go past a few years old.....
Dosesnt seem to be any patience our a more measured approach anymore by lads, its mortgage the whole farm the first year and drop a million plus and hope it works out,

Sheep breeder

Jjameson wrote: »

The increased tonnage of South American beef for the Chinese market is always going to be predominantly low value cuts and offal. Where’s Brazil going to target sale of the primal cuts.?

The same place we do. Europe. So along with the main cheap beef producing nations we have outlet for red offal and beef in China but at the same price base. And a political establishment prepared to throw us under a German motor car via mercouser. 99000 tonnes of fillet,sirloin sriploin steak Equate to a lot of cattle compared to a balance of al, cuts.
For meaningful price here we need a European protein deficit be it swine, equine or bovine. I darent say what I’m thinking but it is inevitable!

For the China market we are probably the furthest away from it to compete in any major way, for the China market its going to be low price beef due to the number of people to feed and the vast majority are on very low income and as stated above will not be in the market for prime cuts, a lot of what they have both up to this has being stripper beef from Australia and New Zealand.
How anybody believes that our cull dairy calves are all going to fed for a big price to feed China are away with the fairies.

wrangler

Sacrolyte wrote: »

He was awesome in “miracle on 34th street”

I was thinking of a younger John Payne,
Well...... at the very least, one that wouldn't be thirty years dead

Danzy

Sheep breeder wrote: »

For the China market we are probably the furthest away from it to compete in any major way, for the China market its going to be low price beef due to the number of people to feed and the vast majority are on very low income and as stated above will not be in the market for prime cuts, a lot of what they have both up to this has being stripper beef from Australia and New Zealand.
How anybody believes that our cull dairy calves are all going to fed for a big price to feed China are away with the fairies.

The scale of our beef, of all European beef is tiny globally.

It's still traded internationally, if South American beef ends up heading to China, add in Australia then i t will affect the price of it here.

We are roughly 50% closer to China than South America.

1500 miles closer than Canada.

So out of the top ten global exporters, ourselves at no. 6 are the closest to China, if that is worth anything to us well see.

We aren't going to see beef at 4.50 in Kepak but it will have a long term impact across the planet.

A qtr of the Worlds pigs are dead now and that is a big story, the main meat of the world if beef Cattle disappeared entirely that would have a smaller impact globally.

The Guardian yesterday said China is short 24 million tonnes of pork, the rest of the world Only sells 8mn tonnes.

What will b e the impact in China politically as tens of millions of people lose their livestock, main protein source, income source.

One probablecourse that beef in South America will quickly be priced out of the market for anyone but the rich.

Retail prices will rise in Europe as well.

The story of meat consumption globally is all about Asia in terms of production and consumption and Asia is dominated by the pig.

farawaygrass

wrangler wrote: »

He's doing 400 TOPLESS cubicles as well
Another big sheep flock gone

There might be more demand going forward for my few lambs so!

farawaygrass

Danzy wrote: »

The scale of our beef, of all European beef is tiny globally.

It's still traded internationally, if South American beef ends up heading to China, add in Australia then i t will affect the price of it here.

We are roughly 50% closer to China than South America.

1500 miles closer than Canada.

So out of the top ten global exporters, ourselves at no. 6 are the closest to China, if that is worth anything to us well see.

We aren't going to see beef at 4.50 in Kepak but it will have a long term impact across the planet.

A qtr of the Worlds pigs are dead now and that is a big story, the main meat of the world if beef Cattle disappeared entirely that would have a smaller impact globally.

The Guardian yesterday said China is short 24 million tonnes of pork, the rest of the world Only sells 8mn tonnes.

What will b e the impact in China politically as tens of millions of people lose their livestock, main protein source, income source.

One probablecourse that beef in South America will quickly be priced out of the market for anyone but the rich.

Retail prices will rise in Europe as well.

The story of meat consumption globally is all about Asia in terms of production and consumption and Asia is dominated by the pig.

After all the talking of the huge demand coming down the line, and China potentially swallowing up practically all the beef produced at the moment, if we still don’t hit 4.50 base price then what’s the point?

Siamsa Sessions

farawaygrass wrote: »

After all the talking of the huge demand coming down the line, and China potentially swallowing up practically all the beef produced at the moment, if we still don’t hit 4.50 base price then what’s the point?

Factories have seen this year just how little they can pay farmers and still have people lining up to sell them cattle. Add to this the fact that there’s no competition between factories.

So it’s very hard to see why they would start passing on any extra money to farmers that might be available to them based on increased demand from China.

Danzy

farawaygrass wrote: »

After all the talking of the huge demand coming down the line, and China potentially swallowing up practically all the beef produced at the moment, if we still don’t hit 4.50 base price then what’s the point?

I've no idea what the price will lift to.

Lift they will though, African Swine fever is the biggest change to global agri in 40 years.



The figures are clear and the demand massive. The world is going to have a meat deficit for next few years.

When did that last happen, who knows, not in the last century.

Danzy

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Factories have seen this year just how little they can pay farmers and still have people lining up to sell them cattle. Add to this the fact that there’s no competition between factories.

So it’s very hard to see why they would start passing on any extra money to farmers that might be available to them based on increased demand from China.

They respond to global pressures as well, cun72 though they are.

They are a rounding error in beef factories, all together smaller than one feedlot in Mexico.

If it's kept too low China might buy some 9f them out, buy all of them, set up factories there, as they already are looking at.

The beef mafia are keeping prices down to have enough beef to meet orders from past contracted prices.

We are already bout 60 Euro cents behind US beef, that's a first.

cute geoge

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Factories have seen this year just how little they can pay farmers and still have people lining up to sell them cattle. Add to this the fact that there’s no competition between factories.

So it’s very hard to see why they would start passing on any extra money to farmers that might be available to them based on increased demand from China.

The only competition is the export and you an be damn sure every calf in the country will be exported if the factories do not pay up!

Mooooo

Danzy wrote: »

I've no idea what the price will lift to.

Lift they will though, African Swine fever is the biggest change to global agri in 40 years.



The figures are clear and the demand massive. The world is going to have a meat deficit for next few years.

When did that last happen, who knows, not in the last century.

Could have a negative in the use of alternatives may get bumped up also

Danzy

Mooooo wrote: »

Could have a negative in the use of alternatives may get bumped up also

They will and at a greater rate than beef, which is the little brother in global meat but it will rebalance it.

The Chinese as is see pork and poultrys their version of the small cottage, take me away from the thatch and two windows stuff.

Hong Kong Chinese eat beef like a St Bernard, they must be more clogged than the factories, 100 lbs a year.

Any help in the situation is welcome.

Mooooo

Danzy wrote: »

They will and at a greater rate than beef, which is the little brother in global meat but it will rebalance it.

The Chinese as is see pork and poultrys their version of the small cottage, take me away from the thatch and two windows stuff.

Hong Kong Chinese eat beef like a St Bernard, they must be more clogged than the factories, 100 lbs a year.

Any help in the situation is welcome.

What I meant by alternatives would be non meat ones

_Brian

At best China will be a pressure release for this season and maybe another, which is great in the short term

They will rebuild their internal supplies because food security is high on their agenda.

With the pressure taken off the steak holders really need to sort a more permanent solution to the beef supply issues we have.
We shouldn’t wait until we have a crisis of unwanted calves lying around farms before people sit up and take action.

Bass Reeves

_Brian wrote: »

At best China will be a pressure release for this season and maybe another, which is great in the short term

They will rebuild their internal supplies because food security is high on their agenda.

With the pressure taken off the steak holders really need to sort a more permanent solution to the beef supply issues we have.
We shouldn’t wait until we have a crisis of unwanted calves lying around farms before people sit up and take action.

This is a huge chance for all stake holders. It a chance for government to reduce the suckler herd by 30-50%. A suckler reduction premium could take 3-500k cows out of the system while beef prices are high. It would give these farmers a chance to reconfigure there systems.

This breathing space could give co-op and the dept a chance to set policy regarding long term calf welfare and give long term decisions as to slaughter policy and to minimum slaughter age's while there is a strong beef market to do the early heavy lifting. Maybe it will also be a chance to set out a long term policy regarding calf exports

Maybe along with a suckler cow reduction scheme the department could set out a long term minimum calf age for export, minimum calf weights for export( to encourage dairy farmers away from extreme breeding), and ages at whick calves can first me moved from dairy farm's.

There is alos the issue of whether we can export longterm and should we go abut phasing this out along with a reduction in calf exports. Lads have to remember a suckler cow reduction premium is making space for the carbon from the present dairy cow herd so any such step has to have a quid quo pro's that may not seem attractive to dairy farmers.

We may never get this chance again.


The other things lads talking about meat prices is that the price of food is not a very low part of any income and a increase in price will not noticed on one part of that food

K.G.

Wouldn't it be some craic that after 54 pages of angst calves went mad next spring.not saying it ll happen but theres a huge mood change going on here

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

Wouldn't it be some craic that after 54 pages of angst calves went mad next spring.not saying it ll happen but theres a huge mood change going on here

TBH if you read back through the tread you wil see that both a longterm issue and a shortterm issue were spoke about. Just because the short term issue is resolved is not to say that the longterm issue go'es away as well.
The issues with too many easy calving beef bulls and of extreame calves will still be a medium to longterm issue. We could still see the slaughter numer climb. Lads may still not want to buy Jex calves n the spring.

yosemitesam1

K.G. wrote: »

Wouldn't it be some craic that after 54 pages of angst calves went mad next spring.not saying it ll happen but theres a huge mood change going on here

Nothing has happened yet. Seems to be nearly entirely dairy farmers talking up the market...

mahoney_j

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Nothing has happened yet. Seems to be nearly entirely dairy farmers talking up the market...

Nope don’t know if calves will be dear next spring or if beef price will rise but looking at the big picture there are very positive signs and outlook has most definetly changed

yosemitesam1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Nope don’t know if calves will be dear next spring or if beef price will rise but looking at the big picture there are very positive signs and outlook has most definetly changed

Going off the tonnes and value bord via is talking about, it will give a small increase and maybe change things from beef being loss making to somewhere around the break even mark. Still highly doubt that it's worth the risk of spending big money to make a killing when price rises.

straight

The competition..... the guys manufacturing this stuff will have to be well paid.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/innovation/most-meat-in-2040-will-not-come-from-dead-animals-says-report-1.3924343

kk.man

Great research being done by ABP at a Carlow farm. https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/research-focus-diving-deeper-into-new-findings-from-abp-food-groups-rd-farm/

Very interesting data.

wrangler

kk.man wrote: »

Great research being done by ABP at a Carlow farm. https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/research-focus-diving-deeper-into-new-findings-from-abp-food-groups-rd-farm/

Very interesting data.

Good weight for age there, costs would be interesting

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

Good weight for age there, costs would be interesting

Three were steer weights gross returns at present prices would be 980 to 1172. If they kill more than 50 AA they get another 10c/kg bonus or about another 3head. They were killed at 21/22 months so if March born they were killed pre/post Christmas. If base was 4.2/kg for that period like a few years ago they would have grosses 1182-1415 under present bonus system

What is frightening is there is worse bulls than KYA out there. These cattle were.on demo/test farms. They would have got ideal grass over there lifetime. More than likely fed silage last summer 12 months during the drought period.

As well it would have been in ABP's interest that grades were correct so no steam on camera or software adjustments for grades or FS's

kk.man

I would have drafted them on FFS 3 while I noticed a lot were 4s. I wounder would they have being better off letting them go at 3s, I know weights would have been lower but would the extra feed being justified ?

Bass Reeves

kk.man wrote: »

I would have drafted them on FFS 3 while I noticed a lot were 4s. I wounder would they have being better off letting them go at 3s, I know weights would have been lower but would the extra feed being justified ?

They were killed last Christmas I presume. Lads would have presumed the prices would be similar to 2-4years ago. As well they some were on an ABP partnership farm. However unless you get a 30c/kg rise in nest few weeks cattle fed for selling in December would be better hung already