Another recession?

LirW

Beterbiev wrote: »

Germany is one of the rare cases where resistance to borrowing is harming the country. With their obsession with balanced budgets and saving it has left their country with infrastructure that is creaking, badly in need of investment.

Also Germany has been in and out of recession over the last decade. While not badly hit during the last crash, they never managed to get thriving again. I came out of education at a low point in Austria, around 2012, I considered maybe moving to Germany but they weren't doing well either. It was a tough time because we couldn't find jobs and social services were cut back at the time.
It never truly picked up, only in the last 2 years it got noticably better but a boom investment in building started to happen and people are now lured into debt with sweet deals on cheap buy-to-let property.

OneEightSeven

OneEightSeven wrote: »

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

According to the CSO:
New houses built
29,067 1,680

Guess which one was 1998 and which was 2010?

But yes the housing crisis was the immigrants fault.

Tony EH

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Are we due another recession?

Yes.

Tony EH

riffmongous wrote: »

But only for a few years until things get out of control again, Ireland's just doesn't seem to be able or willing to manage itself responsibly. Not that we're alone in that either though

We live in a neo-liberal, boom and bust economy. This doesn't happen by accident.

We won't regulate things, to stop markets from over heating, so things get out of control and go bang.

It doesn't affect those that have wealth to buffer them, but everyone else gets screwed and has to join a dole queue and watch their kids emigrate.

Tony EH

NIMAN wrote: »

2 other factors in the housing crisis are:

(1) The government stopped building social housing in any great numbers for a decade.

(2) People playing the system, turning down decent offers of accommodation.

It's more than that.

Banks aren't prevented from offering people loans on ridiculous mortgages that hock them into unreasonable debt for the bulk of their lives, despite the realistic eventuality that most of those people are going to run out of work at some point in their lives, before their loans are paid back.

This is the biggest cause of over heating in housing markets and one of the biggest causes of misery in this country. Houses cost stupid money and banks lend stupid money, regardless of the extremely tenuous nature that presents itself, so everything keeps rising until it blows.

Banks should be STRICTLY regulated in all of their dealings, because they have shown time and again that they aren't capable of regulating themselves.

Tony EH

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Do people think economies and consumption can just keep growing and growing? It's a ridiculous way to run the world, but that's how we do.

It wasn't always like that. It's only since the 80's that this cult of financial sectors worship came about and this idea that the market will cure all.

It doesn't.

They need to be brought to heel, because they really will fuck it up so badly one day, there'll be no recovery.

Wanderer78

Tony EH wrote:

Banks should be STRICTLY regulated in all of their dealings, because they have shown time and again that they aren't capable of regulating themselves.

They only engage in riskless risk, when things go tits up, it clearly isn't their fault, just stupid people and stupid governments!

cmac2009

punisher5112 wrote: »

It's coming.....

Winter?

Tony EH

NIMAN wrote: »

.... and didn't I hear Eddie Hobbs on the radio the other day trying to sell his services.

Crash imminent.

Tony EH

Ush1 wrote: »

Owning a house is not a critical need.

With our less than stellar renting set up, that is essentially a cartel that screws renters, it kind of is.

topper75

weldoninhio wrote: »

We all made it through the last one unscathed. Friends and family.

Damn right we did, despite a torrent of whinge.

Built-in unemp is about 5% or so. In that respect only about 1 in 10 people actually lost their jobs. 9/10 of us kept theirs.

Granted some public workers got cuts, but this was more than compensated by lower rents (yes they did dip back!), ludicrously low mortgage int rates historically speaking esp the tracker kids, a proliferation of German discounters, and native shops cutting silly boom padding from retail prices and offering 'recession busters'.

Many of those that were laid off were foreigners who simply went home.

I never felt so well off as a worker than during the recession - thanks to being a 9/10er. It wasn't cool to talk out loud though in case you were talking to a 1/10er. Better stay safe with the 'oh it's terrible isn't it?'.

punisher5112

cmac2009 wrote: »

Winter?

That's a coming too....

Bigmac1euro

In relation to we made it through the last one unscathed, not sure if thats exactly true. A number of people I knew or friends of friends topped themselves. Not saying it was directly related but there seemed to be a couple of years where there was a suicide every month of someone I knew mutually and a smal few I knew directly. Things where quite grim for some people. Possibly it was that age group and the age I was at but I wonder do suicide rates increase during a down cycle. I reckon so. The ages of these people were all early to mid 20’s. Probably people being dropped from apprenticeships left right and centre. Primarily male.
So that’s a lot of families emotionally destroyed. So unfortunately for these 1/10ers they couldn’t see the light it would seem. Again this is anecdotal but it was strange how often it happened.

punisher5112

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

In relation to we made it through the last one unscathed, not sure if thats exactly true. A number of people I knew or friends of friends topped themselves. Not saying it was directly related but there seemed to be a couple of years where there was a suicide every month of someone I knew mutually and a smal few I knew directly. Things where quite grim for some people. Possibly it was that age group and the age I was at but I wonder do suicide rates increase during a down cycle. I reckon so. The ages of these people were all early to mid 20’s. Probably people being dropped from apprenticeships left right and centre. Primarily male.
So that’s a lot of families emotionally destroyed. So unfortunately for these 1/10ers they couldn’t see the light it would seem. Again this is anecdotal but it was strange how often it happened.

Yes it was and is shocking to be honest....
Not enough done at all.

The last person I know personally was in say late 40s lovely family, 2 kids, house, great job and really good paying job and was not long after doing a course in college and had moved up the ladder...

Poor family and friends..... I do somewhat believe it's selfish in a way but i myself was at that door and was close to the end..... I actually can see now. Life is so much more and especially if there are family etc it ain't worth it. It ain't worth it either way but it is hard to explain.

Oh and forgot to add very sorry for your loss and that experience you had to endure.

topper75

Yes there were a small number of suicides rooted in changes to financial circumstances. And of course they were and still are sad and deserving of sympathy.
However, the statement that we came through unscathed is still correct when speaking in general terms. If you can't speak in general terms about the Irish economy and peoples' experience of it, then you can't speak about it at all.

9/10 still in a job means we did OK. Ireland can handle a single sector like building wilting (barely but it can). What it will not handle is a large scale multinational exodus. The much-maligned favourable tax rates are everything for Ireland in the 21st century.

Bigmac1euro

topper75 wrote: »

Yes there were a small number of suicides rooted in changes to financial circumstances. And of course they were and still are sad and deserving of sympathy.
However, the statement that we came through unscathed is still correct when speaking in general terms. If you can't speak in general terms about the Irish economy and peoples' experience of it, then you can't speak about it at all.

9/10 still in a job means we did OK. Ireland can handle a single sector like building wilting (barely but it can). What it will not handle is a large scale multinational exodus. The much-maligned favourable tax rates are everything for Ireland in the 21st century.

Most people I knew where out of a job or at least half of them, it felt like, so not so sure about the 9/10 still had a job. The numbers don’t sound right.
Young people at that time couldn’t actually get on the career ladder. So is this 9/10 people who had jobs weren’t let go ?
It seemed like lots of people around me were unemployed including myself for a certain period of time. There’s another thread about the recession in AH at the moment and many of the posters also say they were out of a job. I don’t really believe the whole 9/10 spiel no offence. I’m sure you pulled it from CSO or whatever but it just does not make sense. Job path or job bridge was probably included in the employed field which we know well that should not be classed as employed.

Mr. teddywinkles

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Most people I knew where out of a job or at least half of them, it felt like, so not so sure about the 9/10 still had a job. The numbers don’t sound right.
Young people at that time couldn’t actually get on the career ladder. So is this 9/10 people who had jobs weren’t let go ?
It seemed like lots of people around me were unemployed including myself for a certain period of time. There’s another thread about the recession in AH at the moment and many of the posters also say they were out of a job. I don’t really believe the whole 9/10 spiel no offence. I’m sure you pulled it from CSO or whatever but it just does not make sense. Job path or job bridge was probably included in the employed field which we know well that should not be classed as employed.

If a recession happens again it will not only hurt the usual sectors but others as well that are big now. Has to, to technically be in recession. Not much consolation I know

topper75

topper75 wrote: »

Yes there were a small number of suicides rooted in changes to financial circumstances. And of course they were and still are sad and deserving of sympathy.
However, the statement that we came through unscathed is still correct when speaking in general terms. If you can't speak in general terms about the Irish economy and peoples' experience of it, then you can't speak about it at all.

9/10 still in a job means we did OK. Ireland can handle a single sector like building wilting (barely but it can). What it will not handle is a large scale multinational exodus. The much-maligned favourable tax rates are everything for Ireland in the 21st century.

Why it dose not appaer like that to many was the fact that so many were employed in the construction industry both professionally and trades the construction industry saw employment fall of a cliff.

There is a culture of employment in the constrtction industry in irish society most so in rural aeras, so therefore to a lot of people it did appaere worse than it was overall.

pure.conya

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

The housing crisis wasn't caused by immigrants.

Central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve have created a low-interest-rate world that makes investing in bonds unattractive. So institutional investors who used to invest heavily in the bond market (e.g., pension funds) have been looking for other kinds of investments that produce better returns than bonds but more stable returns than stocks. They've been pumping more and more money into real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have been snapping up property to meet demand.

So now Joe and Mary, when buying a house, have to compete not only with other homebuyers but with some of the world's biggest institutional investors, who have billions to pump into the market.

Immigrants are not the cause of this. Central bankers are. If they raised interest rates, institutional investors would go back to bonds and the housing market wouldn't be so overheated.

you hit the nail on the head but frankie boyle does a mighty job at explaining people's ignorance https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GtWA3jQN1Pg

topper75

topper75 wrote: »

Damn right we did, despite a torrent of whinge.
.

I have to laugh at this attitude. I, and many others, left Ireland to find work abroad. Sure, it was only the people who stayed in Ireland who were affected... There were quite a few Irish people who couldn't find work in Ireland, and rather than wait out the recession by being on the dole, went abroad to pay their mortgages, or support family back home.

Any time I go home, I always find it interesting to check who among my generation are still there. Very few are. A few moved to the cities, but the vast majority are in Australia or other countries. Quite a few of them are still paying a mortgage in Ireland, but it's not viable to return, because we carried out debts out with us.

So, while the unemployed became employed in Ireland, there's more than them who were affected by the recession. My hometown has a greater population of foreigners than those native from there. Not complaining. It's fantastic to see how much it's changed, but the attitude here regarding the recession is often very blinkered.

Tony EH

Wealth is relative. Remember that.

minikin

Social Medium wrote: »

And relatively speaking we are close to the top of the pyramid.

As an economy maybe, but it’s a damn expensive country if you’re not doing ok.

Idbatterim

How many emigrated? Imagine that relief valve wasn’t there ?! With all their stunts to make the live register figures look low too. Jobbridge , how many are on disability and not included in jobless too?

Mr. teddywinkles

Social Medium wrote: »

And relatively speaking we are close to the top of the pyramid.

I could own a lot of **** with a heap of debt too.
Would not consider debt to be wealth. It's the ability to service that debt long term is the problem.

Tony EH

Social Medium wrote: »

And relatively speaking we are close to the top of the pyramid.

Who's "we"?

rossie1977

Recessions usually happen when everyone isn't expecting it.

Most 'experts' and ordinary people have been talking recession for 5 years now

Social Medium

Social Medium wrote: »

Debt is a necessity for an economy, there is nothing inherently wrong with debt. Without knowing you I can be reasonably confident that your standard of living is amongst the top 1% or better in the world today.

Only in certain limited terms. The standard of healthcare, general quality of food and safety tends to be higher, but standard of living is a relative concept.

Two examples. We're both single, and in our 40s.

I live in a second tier city in China (9 million people). From my job I make a fairly high salary for this country but a low one when compared to Ireland. I work 16 hours a week. Yup. 16 hours a week. Sometimes i do overtime to bring that up to 24 hours a week. I'm still not reaching the harsher tax caps. I can pay my mortgage in Ireland, go out to the bar/club twice a week, eat in restaurants every night, and travel around a country bigger than Europe. Little need for a car since public transport is efficient and cheap. I can also travel to all of Asia on relatively low air fares. This year alone I've been the Japan twice, Thailand once, and Bali once.

Now, compare that to a mate of mine who works on average 43 hours a week (not including overtime which is less than nothing after tax), a slightly average salary for his industry, struggles with his mortgage, balancing against rising costs for healthcare, rates/tax, food shopping etc. He went on a holiday last year and cant afford one this year, because he needs to get his car repaired.

It's all relative. I have a much higher general standard of living in China than I would have in Ireland. My salary gets me far more than I would get from a higher salary in Ireland. My cost of living in China is tiny whereas my cost of living in Ireland would be high.

I do miss quality veg and meat though. Still, the cost of food shopping, and the general quality in Ireland shocked me the last time I was home, because the quality was so low. Difficult to find a decent steak without pre-ordering. Needing to check many different places to find better quality potatoes. A big difference from the Ireland I knew before the recession.

And by any measure, debt is not healthy... for a person or a country... I was a credit controller/debt collection specialist before becoming a lecturer. Debt builds up. It rarely is removed for long and generally those people who become used to debt accrue more of it over time, ultimately placing themselves in untenable situations. There's a general lack of personal responsibility when it comes to Debt, which has been encouraged over the last few decades. (never mind that most people don't fully read the contracts they sign). In economic terms for a nation, debt is dangerous simply because we don't know where it will lead. Another Iceland, perhaps? There's too many assumptions made about being covered against failure, without any real evidence to back it up.

Kermit.de.frog

Don't see a recession meself.

2010 was exceptional but now the banks have not lent anything. All the construction you see is from cash rich foreign funds. So the banks can't go belly up again.

So unless there is a major global shock or multinationals pull out of here en-mass then it's pretty unlikely there will be a recession here. We don't have the circumstances for one at the moment.

Things will probably slow down but I don't see anything catastrophic like 2010.

Thespoofer

I think hyperinflation will sneakily develop more and more causing poverty over time.

topper75

Thespoofer wrote: »

I think hyperinflation will sneakily develop more and more causing poverty over time.

They can't get any inflation going beyond 1% in the eurozone. They've missed their target again. Despite all their stimulus and quantative easing efforts. They even resorted to bond buying in the ECB - broke their own rules. Car still not starting.

Ergo we are highly unlikely to encounter hyperinflation in the next decade. People aren't chasing goods like they used to. Factory inventory is pulling back all over to reflect this. Even in China.

Thespoofer

topper75 wrote: »

They can't get any inflation going beyond 1% in the eurozone. They've missed their target again. Despite all their stimulus and quantative easing efforts. They even resorted to bond buying in the ECB - broke their own rules. Car still not starting.

Ergo we are highly unlikely to encounter hyperinflation in the next decade. People aren't chasing goods like they used to. Factory inventory is pulling back all over to reflect this. Even in China.

OK, just to get out of the way, I'm no expert on economics so be gentle!

When I mean hyperinflation, I suppose I mean it not in terms of bringing a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread but in everyday necessities becoming more and more expensive, being slowly squeezed so to speak.

askU

U.S. economic growth slowed less than expected in the third quarter as a further contraction in business investment was offset by resilient consumer spending, further allaying financial market fears of a recession https://t.co/ON8XCJv1mo https://t.co/2HN4GHqdEW

Tony EH

Social Medium wrote: »

Most people in Ireland.

That would be wrong then.

riclad

I think the cause of a future recession, could be war,s in the middle east,
rising interest rates, rising oil prices, a slowdown in the chinese economy ,
in 10 years time, climate change will effect the economy.
Look at america, there seem to be more flood,s ,hurricane,s ,extreme forest fires
every year .

Geuze

Thespoofer wrote: »

OK, just to get out of the way, I'm no expert on economics so be gentle!

When I mean hyperinflation, I suppose I mean it not in terms of bringing a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread but in everyday necessities becoming more and more expensive, being slowly squeezed so to speak.

The reality is that the price of goods has been falling for a decade.

"Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance" are 23% cheaper than Dec 2011.

The category "All goods" are 12% cheaper since then.

Thespoofer

Thespoofer wrote: »

I think hyperinflation will sneakily develop more and more causing poverty over time.

I Could go out today and buy a brand new car for about 25% of my yearley income and I don't work full time, every single thing except for housing is enormousley cheaper that it was even 20 years ago let along the cost of them in the 1970s.

weldoninhio

mariaalice wrote: »

I Could go out today and buy a brand new car for about 25% of my yearley income and I don't work full time, every single thing except for housing is enormousley cheaper that it was even 20 years ago let along the cost of them in the 1970s.

Pints are an awful lot more expensive.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Pints are an awful lot more expensive.

http://www.finfacts.ie/Private/bestprice/guinnessindex.htm

Unless you go back to 1969 its has not changed much.

Sunny Disposition

We’ll definitely have a slow down in the next few years and probably very few people will expect it. Suddenly rising oil prices, terrorism, bankers irresponsibility are all things that hit my businesses hard over the years and very few people, myself included, expected them.
When the next economic malaise comes up it will probably be for reasons very few economists expect today.

Cal04

Do you think builders will ever come down in price again, as in get quieter

Sunny Disposition

Cal04 wrote: »

Do you think builders will ever come down in price again, as in get quieter

Probably not very much in relative terms, it is a huge mystery to me how well rewarded construction has been, it was decades ago when I got into it in London and it still is.

Ireland has caught up too, the lobby here is very strong. I have benefited hugely from it, so it might be unfair of me to complain, but it is ridiculous how expensive housing is. It's also crazy how poor a lot of the work, because the regulation here is terribly lax. There are loads of guys making a living going around doing little jobs on Celtic Tiger houses.

fAzI

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

...the sale of hens goes up its time to tighten the belts

OMG yesterday I was in vet clinic and I see that woman with two hens in a cage beside me and I know that recession is happening

Danzy

Thespoofer wrote: »

I think hyperinflation will sneakily develop more and more causing poverty over time.

Normal inflation will be an achievement in Europe in the next 20 years.

Deflation and stagnation are the main risks.

Can Europe avoid it, maybe but it is already taking incredible firepower to hold things as is.

Danzy

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

We’ll definitely have a slow down in the next few years and probably very few people will expect it. Suddenly rising oil prices, terrorism, bankers irresponsibility are all things that hit my businesses hard over the years and very few people, myself included, expected them.
When the next economic malaise comes up it will probably be for reasons very few economists expect today.

Globally we are over due a recession.

People I feel are using the last crash as the definition of a recession, that was an event not seen since the great depression.

Most will not feel a new recession.

scamalert

Danzy wrote: »

Normal inflation will be an achievement in Europe in the next 20 years.

Deflation and stagnation are the main risks.

Can Europe avoid it, maybe but it is already taking incredible firepower to hold things as is.

not sure where cost of living falls in, and buying power, as euro, pound, dollar are losing their buying power, if you look at food cost, then say tech industry we went from 500e a gadget max to over 1k in less then half decade, same with housing market, we hit pre recession prices around 2018, so took less then half decade for prices to double up.

beamoflight

The top 26 billionaires own $1.4 trillion — as much as 3.8 billion other people.

bnt

The danger of recession talk is that it can affect the economy, by making people more cautious with their money and reducing confidence. We could be talking ourselves in to a recession.

Tony EH

Nah. That's Bertie Ahern baloney economics.

People get more prudent with their spending when their money doesn't stretch because pricing goes out of whack. In low wage economies, spending becomes lesser out of necessity, because saving for something becomes a priority.

No country ever "talked itself into a recession".

Mad_maxx

Danzy wrote: »

Normal inflation will be an achievement in Europe in the next 20 years.

Deflation and stagnation are the main risks.

Can Europe avoid it, maybe but it is already taking incredible firepower to hold things as is.

Just as well our economy tracks the American one and not Europe

Sunny Disposition

bnt wrote: »

The danger of recession talk is that it can affect the economy, by making people more cautious with their money and reducing confidence. We could be talking ourselves in to a recession.

Ha! Heard a lot of that in 08!