Another recession?

Fr_Dougal

BDI wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. The economy isn’t based on houses. Hotels and office blocks. Factories and shops. The city centre is turning into a workplace with lunch outlets rather than a shopping place with lunch outlets.
Housing estates will turn to high rise city apartments. There’s years to go yet.

London City is the same, fairly dead after workers finish up.

People chose their nights out more carefully these days, can’t expect them to pay high rents and be out partying every night. Everywhere will be wedged again in the run up to Xmas.

beejee

NoteAgent wrote: »

That's fair enough but I'm not sure I agree with your last post about "foreign interests". If not for the likes of Intel, Google, etc in Ireland, I shudder thinking about what state the Irish economy would be in right now.

If closing off a country to open trade worked well then North Korea and Venezuela should be Economic Superpowers......but they're not.

We are the most financially exposed country to globalisation in the world. That's not a good thing.

Basically, we (and every other country) will have to wake up to reality: there is no such thing as unlimited growth.

We (and they) will have to learn to live within our means, by our OWN means.

Multinational interests are the antithesis of sustainability. They are vultures that flock to the next feed as soon as it suits. Relying on them to give a pittance in tax as the financial backbone of the country is blind.

That extends to selling off national assets to foreign interests too. It's bad news, and big time.

We could get the hospital system fully functioning, for example, housing fully functioning, gainful employment full functioning again... but for OUR interests and OUR gain, long term, and sustainably so.

You mention North Korea and Venezuela. Well, I think our current system just takes a bit longer to reach the same point, that's all. It's time for a new strategy and plan, and you can practically hear the wheels turning at high levels everywhere. Those in the know realise the game is up.

lola85

beejee wrote: »

We are the most financially exposed country to globalisation in the world. That's not a good thing.

Basically, we (and every other country) will have to wake up to reality: there is no such thing as unlimited growth.

We (and they) will have to learn to live within our means, by our OWN means.

Multinational interests are the antithesis of sustainability. They are vultures that flock to the next feed as soon as it suits. Relying on them to give a pittance in tax as the financial backbone of the country is blind.

That extends to selling off national assets to foreign interests too. It's bad news, and big time.

We could get the hospital system fully functioning, for example, housing fully functioning, gainful employment full functioning again... but for OUR interests and OUR gain, long term, and sustainably so.

You mention North Korea and Venezuela. Well, I think our current system just takes a bit longer to reach the same point, that's all. It's time for a new strategy and plan, and you can practically hear the wheels turning at high levels everywhere. Those in the know realise the game is up.

Pittance in tax?

8 multinationals pay 20% of our tax intake each year.

Mr. teddywinkles

beejee wrote: »

How specific!

My general view is that we were on the right track all the way to the 2000's.

Were the 70's better than the 60's? Were the 80's better than the 70's? And so on. A lot to factor in, but it's very easy to say the country has been on an upward projection until it got into the "boom/bust" nonsense of the 2000's.

And I'd argue that besides the few lucky ones that made out like bandits, we are largely on a decline since the 2000's. It might look a bit shinier, but the reality beneath is anything but.

Think every decade has a different set of problems to be honest.

coolshannagh28

lola85 wrote: »

Pittance in tax?

8 multinationals pay 15% of our tax intake each year.

A pittance relative to their true liabilities .

youtube!

BDI wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. The economy isn’t based on houses. Hotels and office blocks. Factories and shops. The city centre is turning into a workplace with lunch outlets rather than a shopping place with lunch outlets.
Housing estates will turn to high rise city apartments. There’s years to go yet.

I sure hope you are right, whilst none of us directly employed have been let go I must point out that a lot of the agency workers are gone so there that. Fact is who is buying the houses ? Not John and Mary anymore at least not in any great numbers.

riclad

This is not 2008, if half the builders stopped working it would not cause a recession.
the slump in 2008, was caused by a reliance on house, building
and the sudden fall in house values .
If you go around dublin ,you ,ll see empty sites where in the future new offices, hotel,s and student accomodation are being built .
We are in the eu, we depend on tourism,exports , multinational companys like google .
we are an open economy, if there,s a european recession ,
then there will be an irish recession. too.
Since 2008, they banks have been regulated and strict limits are set on lending .

beejee

BDI wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. The economy isn’t based on houses. Hotels and office blocks. Factories and shops. The city centre is turning into a workplace with lunch outlets rather than a shopping place with lunch outlets.
Housing estates will turn to high rise city apartments. There’s years to go yet.

The economy most certainly is underpinned by property prices. It might not be the only thing, but it's way up at the top.

Its ethereal nonsense. I'm worth 1 million today because some Estate agent told me. In a months time it could crash and be worth a fraction. It's nothing but pure speculation driven on the back of borrowed money.

Ireland could be worth a fraction of its value this time next year. Why? Because vested interests say so. There's no intrinsic fundamental reasoning.

It's the emperors new clothes, and someone soon is going to scream out that he's bollock-naked.

branie2

I hope not

lola85

youtube! wrote: »

I sure hope you are right, whilst none of us directly employed have been let go I must point out that a lot of the agency workers are gone so there that. Fact is who is buying the houses ? Not John and Mary anymore at least not in any great numbers.

Why buy them when you can get the government to buy them for you?

NoteAgent

NoteAgent wrote: »

Youre assuming all that behaviour was normal. It wasnt. All those assets were purchased using Credit.
The car sales now IS the new norm. The average Joe Soap should not be able to to afford 2 holidays and a new car every year.

The average Joe Soap able to afford a new car every year? Even my very wealthy neighbour only replaces his x7 with a new one every 4 years.

beejee

riclad wrote: »

This is not 2008, if half the builders stopped working it would not cause a recession.
the slump in 2008, was caused by a reliance on house, building
and the sudden fall in house values .
If you go around dublin ,you ,ll see empty sites where in the future new offices, hotel,s and student accomodation are being built .
We are in the eu, we depend on tourism,exports , multinational companys like google .
we are an open economy, if there,s a european recession ,
then there will be an irish recession. too.

That's just it. We have next to no say anymore in the direction of our country. Rather than try to shield an already exposed economy as best possible, we've taken the "sure it'll be grand" approach and bet the country double or nothing.

NoteAgent

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

A pittance relative to their true liabilities .

So what do you propose?
Charge them 30% tax? They'd leave immediately putting tens of thousands of highly skilled labour on the dole or force them to emmigrate, putting Ireland into a REAL recession.......thank Christ your not running the country

beejee

lola85 wrote: »

Pittance in tax?

8 multinationals pay 20% of our tax intake each year.

That's my point.

Multinationals get to pay a token amount of pocket change, while we would be destroyed without them.

It's generous to call it an unhealthy relationship. They'll go when it suits them, at the drop of a hat.

lola85

beejee wrote: »

That's my point.

Multinationals get to pay a token amount of pocket change, while we would be destroyed without them.

It's generous to call it an unhealthy relationship. They'll go when it suits them, at the drop of a hat.

So will any company in any aspect of life.

Loyalty in business doesn’t exist.

NoteAgent

lola85 wrote: »

Pittance in tax?

8 multinationals pay 20% of our tax intake each year.

Don't let the "Put Ireland first" crowd hear you say that.

I've always found these type of people to be economically/financially illiterate.
Increasing the Corp tax back up to 30% would be suicide

coolshannagh28

NoteAgent wrote: »

So what do you propose?
Charge them 30% tax? They'd leave immediately putting tens of thousands of highly skilled labour on the dole or force them to emmigrate, putting Ireland into a REAL recession.......thank Christ your not running the country

Where did I suggest that ? Our overdependence on this taxation may become a liability in the future , we should have diversified our economy over the last 10 years and Im embarrassed that you could suggest me running the country .

beejee

NoteAgent wrote: »

So what do you propose?
Charge them 30% tax? They'd leave immediately putting tens of thousands of highly skilled labour on the dole or force them to emmigrate, putting Ireland into a REAL recession.......thank Christ your not running the country

What I propose is that we have a system built out of wafer,-thin sense.

An alternative system would no doubt require a long period of time to build up and enact. But who's got time for that when there's always a recession around the corner and quick bucks to make doubke-time?

I think the next recession is going to knock the absolute stuffing out of accepted ideas and some "strange" things will come out of it. All the better.

What will be interesting is how multinational landlords and foreign owned utility companies and assets, for example, will be treated in bad times when people have to count pennies. Hmm! It'll get a lot more visible when people don't have their heads down working day in day out.

beejee

lola85 wrote: »

So will any company in any aspect of life.

Loyalty in business doesn’t exist.

Yeah but we're not talking about the likes of dunnes stores or a local carpenter exactly, are we?

These are gigantic multinational mega corporations. The difference is day and night.

beejee

NoteAgent wrote: »

Don't let the "Put Ireland first" crowd hear you say that.

I've always found these type of people to be economically/financially illiterate.
Increasing the Corp tax back up to 30% would be suicide

You've pinned your trollocks to multinationals and if it fails you'll fail, and that somehow makes any counterview financially illiterate. Got it.

Still going to fail. Only a complete nincomplop could ignore the world to such a degree.

Mr. teddywinkles

lola85 wrote: »

Pittance in tax?

8 multinationals pay 20% of our tax intake each year.

Scary ain't it.

Mr. teddywinkles

NoteAgent wrote: »

Don't let the "Put Ireland first" crowd hear you say that.

I've always found these type of people to be economically/financially illiterate.
Increasing the Corp tax back up to 30% would be suicide

Don't worry the eu will be doing that for ya shortly

beejee

Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »

Scary ain't it.

Apparently that's a great thing! Never mind the secondary economy directly tied to them.

But more reliance is better, for sure. What could possibly go wrong when an immovable country is relying on a easily moved source?

Anyway, it's all a secondary effect to an actual recession, albeit a guaranteed one.

MrAbyss

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

And the poor fcukers in the donkey sanctuary are picking up the pieces since.
There was donkeys turned loose into bogs and forestry to get rid of the spoiled brats latest fad.

These donkeys live to be 100. Huge numbers of Shrek-fad donkeys are still wandering remote parts of the country alone and with hoofs long and distorted that every step the poor creature makes is agony.

But ya know loike, Climate Change is all that matters loike, ra ra ra!

riclad

Things like brexit interest rates, war in the middle east, oil prices, effect the economy , house building is a fraction of the economic output.
Go to job,s ie there,s 1000,s of jobs advertised .
Also some companys may choose to open office,s in ireland, since in 2020
the uk will no longer be part of the eu.
We are a small country, we at under the influence of the eu, and
global economic force,s , .
if i was giving advice i,d say we need to have more tax breaks, for solar power and have a long term plan for climate change .
But irish governments seem to plan for 3-5 years ahead at most.
Long term planning doe s not seem to accur in the civil service .

Harvey Weinstein

riclad wrote: »

Things like brexit interest rates, war in the middle east, oil prices, effect the economy , house building is a fraction of the economic output.
Go to job,s ie there,s 1000,s of jobs advertised .
Also some companys may choose to open office,s in ireland, since in 2020
the uk will no longer be part of the eu.
We are a small country, we at under the influence of the eu, and
global economic force,s , .
if i was giving advice i,d say we need to have more tax breaks, for solar power and have a long term plan for climate change .
But irish governments seem to plan for 3-5 years ahead at most.
Long term planning doe s not seem to accur in the civil service .

The long term plan for Climate Change is to increase taxes.

Warren Buffett is predicting a stock market crash, according to this article from 2 weeks ago

Link to gloom

Roger Mellie Man on the Telly

This lad has been quiet for a while

Ubbquittious

Once we have this recession kind of out of the way the 'double dip' fearmongering will kick in

The funny thing is that all the fingers continue to be pointed at the people and the multinationals... rather than government policies and the welfare state. Ireland, if it wishes to succeed, needs to look to resolving the rising costs associated with the welfare state system, multiculturalism, national debt and the attitude of a nanny state. The corruption, and mismanagement by various governments regarding long-term economic development, and the country seriously needs to be examined with the aim of a reorganization of the political system, with some degree of accountability being introduced. As for multiculturalism, i'm not digging at it, since it's happening regardless of what we want, but it should be used to benefit the economy rather than draining it of resources that could be used to expand it.

The fact is that everyone expects another recession to occur. It's just a matter of when. That, in itself, is scary.