Another recession?

zerosugarbuzz

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

When you say hopefully it will come soon do you not think it will impact you negatively? Seems like a crazy thing to wish for.

Poor_old_gill

Some of the longing glee for a recession here is odd- I can’t grasp why people want others to be unemployed or lose their jobs, etc.

However, as a poster said earlier it is just a case of when- economies are cyclical and the fundamentals are pointing in the direction of a downturn.

Technical recession is almost a certainty in the next 24 months- whether it is as bad as the late 00’s remains to be seen but I really hope not

suicide_circus

smelly sock wrote: »

Might be able to get a modest 25sq meters extension for less than 80k. I'll be holding off for a few years yet.

yep this would be the one positive for me if another recession hit. In the unlikely event that you can actually get someone to do work on your gaff, the prices are utterly insane, a recession would probably make it affordable.

Mad_maxx

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Warren Buffett is predicting a stock market crash, according to this article from 2 weeks ago

Link to gloom

Likeable and all as he is, buffett likes to BS, he's always saying stocks are a good buy today provided you hold for ten years

Wanderer78

Roger Mellie Man on the Telly wrote:

This lad has been quiet for a while

He lives in california now

weldoninhio

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

When you say hopefully it will come soon do you not think it will impact you negatively? Seems like a crazy thing to wish for.

I've a pretty secure job. I don't think it would affect me too badly, maybe higher rate of tax, but i'm willing to take short term pain for long term gain. Houses to go back to what they are actually worth etc.

Wanderer78

weldoninhio wrote:

I've a pretty secure job. I don't think it would affect me too badly, maybe higher rate of tax, but i'm willing to take short term pain for long term gain. Houses to go back to what they are actually worth etc.

Its good to hear you think you ll whether the next down turn well, fair play to you

Dr. Bre

Your man Hobbs will give us great advice - no worries

is_that_so

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

Some of the longing glee for a recession here is odd- I can’t grasp why people want others to be unemployed or lose their jobs, etc.

However, as a poster said earlier it is just a case of when- economies are cyclical and the fundamentals are pointing in the direction of a downturn.

Technical recession is almost a certainty in the next 24 months- whether it is as bad as the late 00’s remains to be seen but I really hope not

Yearning is largely out of an ill-formed Schadenfreude and a desire for any groups they loathe to get what they deserve. That it'll hit the weaker harder is a concept that does not exist. On topic, technical recession, most probably with Brexit. Beyond that who knows how severe but it's really not going to be as bad as the Second Great Depression, which had a set of circumstances all of its own.

is_that_so

Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »

Scary ain't it.

It's also not true. If it is 20% , it's 20% of the 16% in CT, so about 3%. Income tax accounts for 40% of our tax take , VAT about 25% and Excise about as much as CT. The CT take does allow us to avoid having to resort to higher taxes elsewhere.

Poor_old_gill

is_that_so wrote: »

Yearning is largely out of an ill-formed Schadenfreude and a desire need for any groups they loathe get what the deserve. That it'll hit the weaker harder is a concept that does not exist. On topic, technical recession, most probably with Brexit. Beyond that who knows how severe but it's really not going to be as bad as the Second Great Depression, which had a set of circumstances all of its own.

It's funny how people have not noticed that recession just leads to the concentration of wealth in fewer hands!

If you think public services, etc are bad now then wait until that much hoped for recession comes along!
Cash rich people will hoover up more resources while us working plebs take the hit.

Haven Massive Iron

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

The housing crisis wasn't caused by immigrants.

Central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve have created a low-interest-rate world that makes investing in bonds unattractive. So institutional investors who used to invest heavily in the bond market (e.g., pension funds) have been looking for other kinds of investments that produce better returns than bonds but more stable returns than stocks. They've been pumping more and more money into real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have been snapping up property to meet demand.

So now Joe and Mary, when buying a house, have to compete not only with other homebuyers but with some of the world's biggest institutional investors, who have billions to pump into the market.

Immigrants are not the cause of this. Central bankers are. If they raised interest rates, institutional investors would go back to bonds and the housing market wouldn't be so overheated.

I can only speak from personal experience, but from what I have seen, Mary and Joe aren't doing too badly either.

I live on a development of about 40 properties. Ten years ago only two were rented out and they were people who had emigrated and decided to keep the property. There are now 15 properties being rented and of the last 8 to go on the market, 6 were bought by private individuals and rented out immediately, 1 bought as an owner occupier and the last one has been on the market for four months without a single offer.

There was a time when having €1m in the bank meant you got a nice little return every year, now you are actually losing money, so the logical thing to do is buy property and rent it out. The two properties being rented ten years ago were going for €1500 per month, the latest ones are getting over €3k

meeeeh

weldoninhio wrote: »

I've a pretty secure job. I don't think it would affect me too badly, maybe higher rate of tax, but i'm willing to take short term pain for long term gain. Houses to go back to what they are actually worth etc.

So basically because you can't progress to where you think you should be you hope everyone else will be dragged into the gutter to level things for you. It doesn't work like that, you'll be still in the gutter after it ends and those who have the ability will dig themselves out.

topper75

beejee wrote: »

The economy most certainly is underpinned by property prices. It might not be the only thing, but it's way up at the top.

Its ethereal nonsense. I'm worth 1 million today because some Estate agent told me. In a months time it could crash and be worth a fraction. It's nothing but pure speculation driven on the back of borrowed money.

Ireland could be worth a fraction of its value this time next year. Why? Because vested interests say so. There's no intrinsic fundamental reasoning.

It's the emperors new clothes, and someone soon is going to scream out that he's bollock-naked.

This is correct. All value is assigned. None is truly intrinsic.

The best measure of true wealth I've come across is simply working out how long you can go on for in days if your income stream is suddenly cut off. Non-liquid assets like houses don't help here. That is why they say cash is king. But even that can be blown away sometimes. Ask any Zimbabwean.

scamalert

topper75 wrote: »

This is correct. All value is assigned. None is truly intrinsic.

The best measure of true wealth I've come across is simply working out how long you can go on for in days if your income stream is suddenly cut off. Non-liquid assets like houses don't help here. That is why they say cash is king. But even that can be blown away sometimes. Ask any Zimbabwean.

value of money have been dropping steadily for good half a centrury now, doesnt have to be extreme as in example but pound euro dollar are losing its buying power as everything keeps getting more expensive from essentials to cars property etc.

Antares35

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Good shout. Me too and is also nicer than the ****e you get in your average Spar.

I used to spend €30 a week on shop bought lunches, now spend €10. Some good lessons were learned after the last recession

Also including lights off when not required. I was terrible for that

Same here. I was always running out of money despite my wages being ok. I didn't have loads of shoes, clothes etc. to at least show what I had squandered it all on! When I really looked into it, most of my money was going on shíte lunches, coffees, pastries etc. So much easier to bring your own, or even make a bit of extra dinner and bring that the next day - nothing better than a hot lunch in the winter In general actually, I find its not the "big ticket" things that run away with my money - it's the couple of euros here and there all the time.

Feisar

Antares35 wrote: »

Same here. I was always running out of money despite my wages being ok. I didn't have loads of shoes, clothes etc. to at least show what I had squandered it all on! When I really looked into it, most of my money was going on shíte lunches, coffees, pastries etc. So much easier to bring your own, or even make a bit of extra dinner and bring that the next day - nothing better than a hot lunch in the winter In general actually, I find its not the "big ticket" things that run away with my money - it's the couple of euros here and there all the time.

So true and the whole tap yer card thing compounds the issue. It can be an eye opener if one withdraws €100 euros on a Sunday and uses it for the odds and sods all week. It's mad how quick it's gone.

Antares35

Feisar wrote: »

So true and the whole tap yer card thing compounds the issue. It can be an eye opener if one withdraws €100 euros on a Sunday and uses it for the odds and sods all week.

I used to tap my card at the weekends like there was no tomorrow. I'd be afraid to check my balance on a Monday! Now I tend to just take out some cash - I find I am more scrupulous about my spending when I do that.

Fr_Dougal

Feisar wrote: »

So true and the whole tap yer card thing compounds the issue. It can be an eye opener if one withdraws €100 euros on a Sunday and uses it for the odds and sods all week. It's mad how quick it's gone.

I find wireless payments save me money, less inclined to spend money on crap.

Feisar

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I find wireless payments save me money, less inclined to spend money on crap.

Sorry, I don't follow

weldoninhio

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Its good to hear you think you ll whether the next down turn well, fair play to you

No massive debts. Haven’t bought anything I can’t afford, even in a downturn. Don’t have the latest gadgets, don’t drive, not that hard to do

Wanderer78

weldoninhio wrote: »

No massive debts. Haven’t bought anything I can’t afford, even in a downturn. Don’t have the latest gadgets, don’t drive, not that hard to do

debt accumulation is easy and common, our economic systems are largely based on it, its virtually impossible to gain access to one of our most critical of needs, i.e. housing, without accumulating it

weldoninhio

meeeeh wrote: »

So basically because you can't progress to where you think you should be you hope everyone else will be dragged into the gutter to level things for you. It doesn't work like that, you'll be still in the gutter after it ends and those who have the ability will dig themselves out.

Oh I am progressing, no need to worry about that. I’m more talking about how we are fleeced for everything from concert tickets to houses in this country. Is that chip on your shoulder heavy to carry around??

Ush1

Wanderer78 wrote: »

debt accumulation is easy and common, our economic systems are largely based on it, its virtually impossible to gain access to one of our most critical of needs, i.e. housing, without accumulating it

Owning a house is not a critical need.

ToddyDoody

weldoninhio wrote: »

Oh I am progressing, no need to worry about that. I’m more talking about how we are fleeced for everything from concert tickets to houses in this country. Is that chip on your shoulder heavy to carry around??

Remember, everyone thinks they are above average.

Wanderer78

Ush1 wrote: »

Owning a house is not a critical need.

true, but having a place to live, long term is, we currently dont have that kind of system, and its probably moving in the wrong direction for many, particularly for younger generations

Antares35

Ush1 wrote: »

Owning a house is not a critical need.

Critical is a subjective concept and can largely depend on your circumstances.

If you take the example of a family with young children, I would argue that for them, a house (or any property) is a critical need. I wouldn't like to be trying to sleep at night in my rented house, worrying about when the landlord is going to decide to turf me out with my young family, because they "need to renovate" it or "give it to a family member". Then to have to worry about

1. If there are other similar properties in the area so the kids don't have to be uprooted from their school/ crèche etc.
2. If we can afford the similar property
3. If the similar property is suitable for our needs
4. If we will pass the "interview" along with hundreds of other prospective tenants.

You can take the concept of "critical" and pare it back to a roof over your head and food in your belly, possibly throw in access to medical care. But, I would assume in the context of this debate, "critical" has a much more holistic meaning and is dependent on each individual's circumstances.

Wanderer78

Beterbiev wrote: »

People seem to overlook the fact that we are one of the wealthiest nations in the world in the wealthiest time in history.

and id have to agree with economist michael hudson, are we just confusing wealth with debt!

beejee

Wanderer78 wrote: »

and id have to agree with economist michael hudson, are we just confusing wealth with debt!

Norway, with its natural energy on tap, is a secure country with true value.

The closest we have is the agricultural industry, and that seems to be under severe threat. So... We are in a seriously precarious position.

Mr. teddywinkles

Beterbiev wrote: »

People seem to overlook the fact that we are one of the wealthiest nations in the world in the wealthiest time in history.

One of the most expensive and very indebted as well. If any thing we're to happen don't know have much more debt can be taken on. That's the worrying part.