Another recession?

Wanderer78

beejee wrote: »

Norway, with its natural energy on tap, is a secure country with true value.

The closest we have is the agricultural industry, and that seems to be under severe threat. So... We are in a seriously precarious position.

i think our reliance on mnc's should be tapped into more, via the use of sovereign wealth funds, as the Scandinavians do

James Brown

I predict no more recessions.
Just like we no longer have a working class.
We'll have a downturn due to various factors and it'll feel pretty bad for tax paying stiffs but it won't be a recession, in name at least.
They are so sure the system or 'way of doing things' needing to be fixed after the last one, they continued as is, on both sides of the Atlantic. So they see no problems and why would they? Interestingly despite the last one being top lead, nothing changed for the top lads.

Wanderer78

Beterbiev wrote: »

I think people are confusing wealth full stop.

To assess the wealth of a nation you should look at the economic value the nation produces. We produce a lot of economic value. There is nothing inherently bad about debt, it's a valuable economic tool for investment. Debt used wisely can help create wealth, not used wisely in can destroy wealth.

As a rule of thumb assess how wealthy a nation is by what you can buy for 100 hours of unskilled labour.

debt matters when it depends who the creditor is, and what is their overall intentions

mariaalice

Beterbiev wrote: »

I think people are confusing wealth full stop.

To assess the wealth of a nation you should look at the economic value the nation produces. We produce a lot of economic value. There is nothing inherently bad about debt, it's a valuable economic tool for investment. Debt used wisely can help create wealth, not used wisely it can destroy wealth.

As a rule of thumb assess how wealthy a nation is by what you can buy for 100 hours of unskilled labour.

Roughly a thousand euro so, a new washing machine, a new dishwasher and a TV from somewhere like power city.

Wanderer78

Beterbiev wrote: »

Yea who the creditor is and what the intention is as you say. Debt for a project that can create new jobs and valuable products for society, in an economically viable manner, creates wealth. Debt to buy a new 4k tv, I'd say that destroys wealth.

and what about credit that causes the price of assets to rise, is that helpful for society as a whole?

zerosugarbuzz

weldoninhio wrote: »

I've a pretty secure job. I don't think it would affect me too badly, maybe higher rate of tax, but i'm willing to take short term pain for long term gain. Houses to go back to what they are actually worth etc.

What a messed up selfish attitude. I’d say you’ll think differently if you are effected, you’ll have friends and family destroyed by it but Once your ok jack

beejee

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

What a messed up selfish attitude. I’d say you’ll think differently if you are effected, you’ll have friends and family destroyed by it but Once your ok jack

I used to look at things like that, but when you see how poor people's decision making is, you've just got to give up trying to advise people. Like beating your head against a wall.

So you care more about yourself and leave others to wander off cliffs.

ToddyDoody

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

What a messed up selfish attitude. I’d say you’ll think differently if you are effected, you’ll have friends and family destroyed by it but Once your ok jack

Personally think there's a lot to be said for not making yourself someone else's problem. If everyone could do that we'd have a much better country.

beejee

Beterbiev wrote: »

I think people are confusing wealth full stop.

To assess the wealth of a nation you should look at the economic value the nation produces. We produce a lot of economic value. There is nothing inherently bad about debt, it's a valuable economic tool for investment. Debt used wisely can help create wealth, not used wisely it can destroy wealth.

As a rule of thumb assess how wealthy a nation is by what you can buy for 100 hours of unskilled labour.

Some stuff to agree with, but more and more the whole move from "industrial" to "service" economy seems like a pipe dream that was never going to work out.

You have to produce something of tangible value, or else you end up with a disminishing pool of money getting passed around.

You need a product that exists, not intangible "services". Compare the UK now to Germany now. Who is in better shape going forward? Look at USA now versus China now. That's the difference, and it's killer!

weldoninhio

ToddyDoody wrote: »

Remember, everyone thinks they are above average.

ToddyDoody

weldoninhio wrote: »

Its true. Surveys prove that most people believe they're above average at most things which can't possibly be true. Most things cluster around the average so there's a mass of the population broadly similar.

Wanderer78

Beterbiev wrote: »

Inflation is regarded as healthy at around 2%. The key is whether the credit is being managed properly. For example the 2008/09 credit crisis is an example of how not to manage credit.

deregulation of the financial sector wasnt a good idea either, with the run up to this period, which in turn flung copious amounts of cheap credit around the planet, jacking up asset prices, in particular housing

reg114

German economy is already in a slump.

American industrial production index having risen for 3 years fell in January and has continued to fall through to July of this year.

Brext is the elephant in the room. There will be a no deal brexit and Ireland who imports 30 billion worth of goods and imports 20 billion of exports will be absolutely affected.

So with the biggest economy in Europe (Germany) going into recession, America's output stalling and Britain, our biggest trading partner in chaos, we will go into recession sooner rather than later. Im betting its 2020.

Wanderer78

Beterbiev wrote:

Managing credit well is the key point, hence we have Basel III and Basel IV coming along. These may go too far in the other direction, causing problems in particular for the European Banking sector where profit levels are anaemic.

Has bailing out the banks actually resolved these issues, are the largest financial institutions of Europe actually fit for purpose, or are they actually bankrupt, and if so, what the hell do we do if they are?

ToddyDoody

The unemployment rate was 14.8% in June 2012. Currently its 5.3%. To be half as bad as the last recession it'd need to go to 10%. For that to happen, something would really need to go bang. The banks are ok as far as the stress tests are concerned. Maybe the US just needs a new president.

zerosugarbuzz

ToddyDoody wrote: »

Personally think there's a lot to be said for not making yourself someone else's problem. If everyone could do that we'd have a much better country.

I would consider loosing your job during a recession and being unable to secure another one to be circumstances beyond your control. Certainly nothing to gloat about just because you happen to have a recession proof job.

ToddyDoody

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

I would consider loosing your job during a recession and being unable to secure another one to be circumstances beyond your control. Certainly nothing to gloat about just because you happen to have a recession proof job.

I don't think anyone was gloating.

weldoninhio

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

What a messed up selfish attitude. I’d say you’ll think differently if you are effected, you’ll have friends and family destroyed by it but Once your ok jack

We all made it through the last one unscathed. Friends and family.

punisher5112

It's coming.....

Idbatterim

NoteAgent wrote: »

Don't let the "Put Ireland first" crowd hear you say that.

I've always found these type of people to be economically/financially illiterate.
Increasing the Corp tax back up to 30% would be suicide

Totally agree. Funny how it’s aleays thouse shouting about corporation tax , that are drains on the state or paying virtually nothing into the system

LirW

Beterbiev wrote: »

Germany is one of the rare cases where resistance to borrowing is harming the country. With their obsession with balanced budgets and saving it has left their country with infrastructure that is creaking, badly in need of investment.

Also Germany has been in and out of recession over the last decade. While not badly hit during the last crash, they never managed to get thriving again. I came out of education at a low point in Austria, around 2012, I considered maybe moving to Germany but they weren't doing well either. It was a tough time because we couldn't find jobs and social services were cut back at the time.
It never truly picked up, only in the last 2 years it got noticably better but a boom investment in building started to happen and people are now lured into debt with sweet deals on cheap buy-to-let property.

OneEightSeven

OneEightSeven wrote: »

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

According to the CSO:
New houses built
29,067 1,680

Guess which one was 1998 and which was 2010?

But yes the housing crisis was the immigrants fault.

Tony EH

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Are we due another recession?

Yes.

Tony EH

riffmongous wrote: »

But only for a few years until things get out of control again, Ireland's just doesn't seem to be able or willing to manage itself responsibly. Not that we're alone in that either though

We live in a neo-liberal, boom and bust economy. This doesn't happen by accident.

We won't regulate things, to stop markets from over heating, so things get out of control and go bang.

It doesn't affect those that have wealth to buffer them, but everyone else gets screwed and has to join a dole queue and watch their kids emigrate.

Tony EH

NIMAN wrote: »

2 other factors in the housing crisis are:

(1) The government stopped building social housing in any great numbers for a decade.

(2) People playing the system, turning down decent offers of accommodation.

It's more than that.

Banks aren't prevented from offering people loans on ridiculous mortgages that hock them into unreasonable debt for the bulk of their lives, despite the realistic eventuality that most of those people are going to run out of work at some point in their lives, before their loans are paid back.

This is the biggest cause of over heating in housing markets and one of the biggest causes of misery in this country. Houses cost stupid money and banks lend stupid money, regardless of the extremely tenuous nature that presents itself, so everything keeps rising until it blows.

Banks should be STRICTLY regulated in all of their dealings, because they have shown time and again that they aren't capable of regulating themselves.

Tony EH

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Do people think economies and consumption can just keep growing and growing? It's a ridiculous way to run the world, but that's how we do.

It wasn't always like that. It's only since the 80's that this cult of financial sectors worship came about and this idea that the market will cure all.

It doesn't.

They need to be brought to heel, because they really will fuck it up so badly one day, there'll be no recovery.

Wanderer78

Tony EH wrote:

Banks should be STRICTLY regulated in all of their dealings, because they have shown time and again that they aren't capable of regulating themselves.

They only engage in riskless risk, when things go tits up, it clearly isn't their fault, just stupid people and stupid governments!

cmac2009

punisher5112 wrote: »

It's coming.....

Winter?

Tony EH

NIMAN wrote: »

.... and didn't I hear Eddie Hobbs on the radio the other day trying to sell his services.

Crash imminent.

Tony EH

Ush1 wrote: »

Owning a house is not a critical need.

With our less than stellar renting set up, that is essentially a cartel that screws renters, it kind of is.