Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ArmaniJeanss

Enzokk wrote: »

It is interesting on what Farage will do. Is he an ideologue that wants to pursue Brexit at any cost and thus will go for what he knows he can get? Or is he a just another charlatan who knows where his bread is buttered and getting on talk shows and his MEP pension is what is important to him? In the latter case he can sink the Tories, in the former he makes Brexit happen, although what Brexit is to be determined and it could cost him the ideal Brexit in his eyes.

It's probably not just down to Farage. General election campaigns cost big money to run and organise so it'll come down to whether his backers consider the deal 'brexity' enough. My gut feeling is they probably do.

lawred2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Bookies have about 10/11 that the Tories get a majority. So they reckon, as things stand today, they have roughly a 50% chance.

mindboggling really... after the last four years that the Tories are still that popular

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189153003418374144

No problem getting a clear majority of seats for the tories on this evidence.

The Brexit Party performance will be interesting. They will essentially be arguing against the current deal. If the tories did not have a deal that might have worked but they do have a deal the EU will sign up to so hard to see the Brexit Party making huge advances if their premise is more chaos.

Right now the Tories canter to a majority, but it is much the same as in 2017,

UK general election 2017 poll tracker

If you look at the time the election was called the Tories were on 42% and Labour on about 26%. So according to the new polls the Tories have picked up 4% in support and the Brexit Party about 7% from UKIP. So the "Brexit" vote in 2017 was about 48% and Labour/Lib Dems/SNP at about 48%, just before the election.

The results bared this result out just about, so we are to believe that the Brexit parties share has gone up to 57% while the polls also suggest Remain has been pulling away from Leave at the same time? That doesn't seem right, does it?

Edit: Article links the same graph as ambro25. My calculations are wrong though, Brexit vote still at 47% but split among Tories and Brexit Party. Do we expect them to be able to keep all their seats with the lesser share of the vote?

Kermit.de.frog

ambro25 wrote: »

No problem, you say?

I see that graph in your link, I think of the circumstances...and then I'm strangely reminded of this poll of polls 2 years ago:

Circumstances are very different.

Tories will now say the UK will leave the EU in the first week of business with the new parliament if they get a majority.

Labour are unelectable.

I think having the tories win comfortably is ironically the best scenario for Ireland. Anything else will bring more chaos and a hard border comes back on the agenda.

We don't need that. Time for them to leave. Go Boris! :cool:

BorneTobyWilde

Why is Jo Swinson so keen to give BJ an erection on the 9th? But not on the 12th, what nonsense is going on there.
Makes no sense.

Joe_ Public

Bercow reminiscing in the house about the time as a right wing firebrand in university he took on and defeated a left wing rival by the name of......Mark Francois! How times change.

lawred2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Why is Jo Swinson so keen to give BJ an erection on the 9th? But not on the 12th, what nonsense is going on there.
Makes no sense.

:pac:

as for 9th versus 12th? As the SNP and Lib Dems say it's because

“The reason the 9th is preferable is because it would stop them from bringing forward their withdrawal bill and completing its passage through the Commons.”

Tea Shock

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't see how Farage turns away from a no-deal Brexit and I don't see how Johnson backs away from his deal.

There are some who say Johnson would prefer no deal than his deal and his (and the ERGs) concessions aren't real and was always just electioneering!

Joe_ Public

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Why is Jo Swinson so keen to give BJ an erection on the 9th? But not on the 12th, what nonsense is going on there.
Makes no sense.

If you believe the gov its because they need the extra days to pass a budget for northern Ireland. Given they figured they could pass wab in just three days, feel free to take that with a pinch of salt.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I predict Tories to take clear majority of seats needed to pass legislation.

The nice thing is that no matter what the outcome, we are probably now OK.

If the polls are right and the campaign goes his way, Johnson gets a majority and ratifies his deal, they Brexit at the end of January.

But the Tories campaigning on a deal of any sort means No Deal is left to Farage and co. who will get no seats. If the polls are wrong (as they were in 2017) and Johnson turns out to be as bad at campaigning as he is at everything else, we could still see a Labour minority or coalition govt, and a path to a referendum and Revoke.

Either way, we get no British border in Ireland, and even if Brexit happens, we get another year of transition (no change), and the possibility of another 2 years of transition for 21 and 22 before the hammer drops on the UK economy and we get caught in the splash zone, so we have more time to diversify further and change supply chains and export markets to the EU.

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Circumstances are very different.

Tories will now say the UK will leave the EU in the first week of business with the new parliament if they get a majority.

Labour are unelectable.

I think having the tories win comfortably is ironically the best scenario for Ireland. Anything else will bring more chaos and a hard border comes back on the agenda.

We don't need that. Time for them to leave. Go Boris! :cool:

I really don't mean to come across obtuse, but...circumstances are different how?

Tories were already campaigning on leaving if they got a majority in 2017, and Labour were already unelectable in 2017.

Haranguing doesn't impart even the thinnest of veneers on the fact that nothing has changed since November 2018...bar the 5-ish% of workers right and assorted other alignment measures lately stripped by Johnson from May's WA.

The EU27 still hold all the cards, rearranging the deck chairs in Westminster isn't going to change this fundamental fact however many times they do it.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

The two of diamonds, a joker, a Pikachu collector card, Mr. Bun the Baker, and one of those Rules of Bridge cards.

Kermit.de.frog

ambro25 wrote: »

I really don't mean to come across obtuse, but...circumstances are different how?

Tories were already campaigning on leaving if they got a majority in 2017, and Labour were already unelectable in 2017.

Haranguing doesn't impart even the thinnest of veneers on the fact that nothing has changed since November 2018...bar the 5-ish% of workers right and assorted other alignment measures lately stripped by Johnson from May's WA.

The EU27 still hold all the cards, rearranging the deck chairs in Westminster isn't going to change this fundamental fact however many times they do it.

The Tories have a deal.

That is what has changed. Obviously.

Good luck to everyone else promising more years of chaos. Tories will win comfortably.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Tories have a deal.

That is what has changed. Obviously.

Good luck to everyone else promising more years of chaos. Tories will win comfortably.

yeah because this deal will ensure plain sailing forever more

or something

beggars_bush

Labour should have gone for election in September

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Tories have a deal.

That is what has changed. Obviously.

Good luck to everyone else promising more years of chaos. Tories will win comfortably.

That they do, but (i) it isn't ratified (ii) it manages to be worse than May's and (iii) its detail gets them wide open to repeat campaigning broadsides from all comers, besides befuddling the ignorant (the Brexit Kool Aid-drinking variants of which are much more likely to be swayed by the still-more-simplistic 'no deal' messaging of the Brexit Party, diluting the Tory vote so).

It really isn't the electoral ace on hole, which you appear to believe it is. I'll let the GE campaigns show this to you in due course.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Tories have a deal.

That is what has changed. Obviously.

Good luck to everyone else promising more years of chaos. Tories will win comfortably.

That will happen anyway. Johnson and the Tories are deeply divisive and the PM seems to believe "the British people" consists of anyone who voted for Brexit in 2016......everyone else doesn't exist.

MPFGLB

The Brexit party will be no where ...Boris Johnson has stole their thunder and is the great white hope of all Brexiters

The Tories will get a majority

But the issue is if Lib Dems, Labour& SNP get enough seats to form a government ..I think they may.... just

Rjd2

MPFGLB wrote: »

The Brexit party will be no where ...Boris Johnson has stole their thunder and is the great white hope of all Brexiters

The Tories will get a majority

But the issue is if Lib Dems, Labour& SNP get enough seats to form a government ..I think they may.... just

Think The tories should have tried to get a deal before the election as without one the southern posh tory areas are now very vulnerable to the Lib Dems.

They will lose Scotland also so making up those seats elsewhere will be near impossible especially if Farage acts as a spoiler.

I think the second option is more likely, however the Lib Dems have said numerous times they won't accept Jez as PM. So possibly could be someone like Starmer in charge when the dust settles.

Sam Russell

If the Tories lose the Scottish seats, which appears likely, that will leave them 13 short. They will have to make up those elsewhere. I would assume they might get one or two, but more likely SNP will take all 58 seats but not the Orkneys which will remain LibDems. This will result in Labour also losing 7 Scottish seats.

The English safe Tory seats might be vulnerable to LibDems where remain leaning might be the big issue. A lot of Tories voters would be open to vote LibDem, but not Labour in these Tory heartlands.

The Tories are unlikely to gain any Labour seats, even Leave ones because of the continued austerity, and the perceived 'Nasty Party' name they have earned. If Nissan announces, or even hint, they are leaving, how will Sunderland vote?

So where does that leave the result? No idea.

john9876

ambro25 wrote: »

No problem, you say?

I see that graph in your link, I think of the circumstances...and then I'm strangely reminded of this poll of polls 2 years ago:

The big difference now is that people have had enough time to figure out that Jeremy Corbyn is an idiot ... and that's from a UK based Labour voter.

Sam Russell

john9876 wrote: »

The big difference now is that people have had enough time to figure out that Jeremy Corbyn is an idiot ... and that's from a UK based Labour voter.

But they have also worked out that BJ is a liar, cheat, and charlatan. Also, that the deal on offer is a rotten one, much worse than staying in the EU, and not as good as a softer version. Plus, the WAB contains a lot of traps.

It is a bad time to be in the UK.

Zubeneschamali

john9876 wrote: »

The big difference now is that people have had enough time to figure out that Jeremy Corbyn is an idiot ... and that's from a UK based Labour voter.

The narrative before the 2017 election was the same anti-Corbyn stuff from the Tories, LibDems and Blairites in Labour. The Tories had a decent poll lead when they called the election, just as they do now, but Corbyn made good ground in the campaign. Right up to the time the exit polls came out, people were still pushing this line that the only question was how many extra seats the Tories were going to get, and instead they lost their majority.

What have the Tories done since 2017 to get people who voted Labour in 2017 to change? Nothing - rather the opposite.

The only thing that has changed in which might be in their favour is May for Johnson. Many people think Johnson is a good campaigner - we are about to find out.

road_high

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I still believe corbyn can do better than many think, i dont accept that he's quite as unpopular as msm would have you believe. But he's going to have to sort that brexit fog out, make it absolutely clear that labour is the party of a 2nd referendum. With Swinson talking about winning election and revoke, that is something that could be achieved. Huge challenge for him admittedly.

I think that too. He comes across as very empathetic once allowed to speak abd not undermined by the Tory English press. Once he gets going I can see him doing quite well

gooch2k9

The rules on impartial reporting would be quite useful all the time, not just around elections.

Duane Dibbley

Labour MP's look like they're shitting themselves about going for a General Election.

trellheim

it will be an election fought on Facebook. Watch out for ad spending ramping very hard very fast , the master is in charge . the mobile phone is the key battleground as no one will open doors in december to canvassers

Joe_ Public

If this motion is defeated there'll be no amendments allowed.

FrancieBrady

WOuld be good to be a fly on the wall listening to whatever the DUP are debating among themselves there before going to vote. Seems very animated, whatever is being discussed.

Rjd2

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the Tories lose the Scottish seats, which appears likely, that will leave them 13 short. They will have to make up those elsewhere. I would assume they might get one or two, but more likely SNP will take all 58 seats but not the Orkneys which will remain LibDems. This will result in Labour also losing 7 Scottish seats.

The English safe Tory seats might be vulnerable to LibDems where remain leaning might be the big issue. A lot of Tories voters would be open to vote LibDem, but not Labour in these Tory heartlands.

The Tories are unlikely to gain any Labour seats, even Leave ones because of the continued austerity, and the perceived 'Nasty Party' name they have earned. If Nissan announces, or even hint, they are leaving, how will Sunderland vote?

So where does that leave the result? No idea.

That's a big issue.

Their was an article in the spectator last week saying those Tories were feeling a little more confident because they felt if they get a deal passed they were in a stronger position to defend those seats. However Boris has put them in serious jeopardy now thus why Hammond is fuming.

In the Labour leave areas as you say Tories are still to toxic for Labour leavers so what happens then? Do the brexit party kill the leave vote?

Cummings and Johnson despite what twitter might think are not fools, but I don't see where they can make up the seats they will lose from Scotland and possibly remain tory areas.