Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

fash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Brexit is the attempt to remedy the EU-element of migration.

Government is at fault for non-EU migration, as they already have full control over who can/cannot stay in the country.

In terms of EU migration, the point is clear: to treat EU migration in exactly the same respect as non-EU migration; no discrimination in favour of European migrants to come to the UK and have automatic rights to search for work. Instead, it's an equal playing field. The government of the day decides who can come to meet a given economic need. It's that simple; the same as how much of the rest of the world governs their borders.

Quality = individuals qualified for a given economic need; who have no criminal record; and who speak English to a sufficiently necessary standard to meet the employment opportunity on offer.

Firstly you repeatedly refuse to answer the question as to whether migration should be increased or decreased.
Secondly you say migration should be allowed so long as it is economically beneficial - and all EU migration is economically beneficial.
Thirdly you said that culture is important yet you refuse to acknowledge that there is a massive difference between a highly educated secular democracy and human rights orientated young EU citizen who follows employment around the EU producing loads of economic benefits leaving loads of tax behind and plans to return home/retire to Spain versus a (e.g.) the illiterate Somali Isis enthusiast who will come to UK and stay forever while costing the state a fortune who will, going forward, take their place.
Even assuming you think immigration into the UK should be a fraction of what it currently is, that is not a reason to leave the EU considering that EU migration is temporary, a tiny fraction of actual migration, massively beneficial - in particular a massive economic benefit.

ancapailldorcha

Ok, there's a chance of this thread turning into a general immigration discussion. Let's stay specifically on Brexit please. Any more posts about the benefits/pitfalls of open borders, foreign criminals and so on may be deleted.

Capt'n Midnight

#takebackcontrol ?

In case there is any doubt the UK won't have control outside Brexit.

They will be a rule taker to get deals with the big boys.

The UK used it's EU veto to aid China. The EU steel industry won't forget that. Because that goes back to the core of the Schuman Declaration of 9 May 1950.

After Brexit expect the UK to accept the steel that China dumps on the market. This will undermine the UK steel industry. It will also make the EU reluctant to accept steel from the UK. Lose lose for the UK.



And all for £130m which is not much in the grand scheme of things.

£130m a week is comparable to the ever increasing cost overruns of HS2 Even though £6.76 Bn a year might not catch up with a possible £100Bn projection.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/12/sajid-javid-uk-blocked-higher-eu-steel-tariffs-fearing-shoe-price-rises

The UK blocked tougher EU trade rules to help the steel industry partly because it could have raised the price of shoes for British shoppers, Sajid Javid has said.

The business secretary argued the UK opposed scrapping the so-called lesser duty rule as it would have “cost British shoppers dear”, including an extra £130m a year on the price of footwear – the equivalent of about £4.80 for each household.

So when anyone says the UK will take back control or has principles remind them that they sold out for less than a fiver.

And not for good stuff, but for cheap Chinese shoes.


This piece by Douglas Adams rings so true now , comparing the promises of Brexit with the reality.

The shoe event horizon is now a firmly established and rather sad economic phenomenon, which is taught as part of the basic Middle School Life the Universe and Everything syllabus.

Let's say you are living in an exciting go ahead civilization, so you are looking up at the open sky the stars, the infinite horizon. But, let's say you are living in a stagnant declining civilization, so you are looking down at your shoes. So, your world is a depressing place, you are looking at your shoes and how do you cheer yourself up? By a new pair! So, everyone does the same thing and more and more shoe shops enter the market. In order to support these extra shoe shops, manufactures dictate more and more different fashions and make shoes so badly that they either hurt the feet or fall apart, so that everyone must keep buying shoes until they finally get fed up with lousy rotten shoes. In order to get people to by the shoes, the manufacturers make massive capital investment in the form of more shoe shops.

This is the point known as the shoe event horizon. The whole economy overbalances. Shoe shops outnumber every other kind of shop, and it becomes economically impossible to build anything other than shoe shops. Every shop in the world ends up a shoe shop full of shoes no one can wear, resulting in famine, collapse and ruin. Any survivors eventually evolve into birds and never put their feet on the ground again.

Leroy42

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Fishing came up earlier as in Brexit will finally allow the UK fishermen to 'take back control', up pops a great article from Tony Connelly that explains the background and the reality of it

Hell or high water: Brexit fish talks will be most bruising

And also, it is a great headline but like everything else in terms of Brexit there is no detail to back up the assertion that there are benefits.

But even if there are some theoretical benefits,although no one has been able to provide any details of what that might be, the question remains what plans are in place to help the fishing industry to adjust to the new realities?

It is all well and good saying UK needs to start consuming more, but 1) that will take an advertising and information campaign and 2) it will necessarily take time.

What do the UK fleet do in the meantime whilst they await this change in culture and tastes?

New techniques and or equipment will be needed as the fleet adjusted to fishing for the preferred fish of the UK over what they currently sell to the EU. Who pays for that?

And what if the domestic market doesn't take up the slack, even in the short term? Are the government going to subsidise the industry to ensure that people do not loose their jobs of livelyhoods?

Are where are the plans to increase the coast guard or army to patrol the waters to ensure no EU boats are fishing. Will it simply be left down to individual fishing boats to step in? Who covers the costs of this?

The above is just a few questions from one industry. Repeat (and amend) for multiple industries.

The main issue that I have with both Brexit and its supporters is that there are no plans and what they are going to do with the change that is coming.

A Dub in Glasgo

Leroy42 wrote: »

And also, it is a great headline but like everything else in terms of Brexit there is no detail to back up the assertion that there are benefits.

But even if there are some theoretical benefits,although no one has been able to provide any details of what that might be, the question remains what plans are in place to help the fishing industry to adjust to the new realities?

It is all well and good saying UK needs to start consuming more, but 1) that will take an advertising and information campaign and 2) it will necessarily take time.

What do the UK fleet do in the meantime whilst they await this change in culture and tastes?

New techniques and or equipment will be needed as the fleet adjusted to fishing for the preferred fish of the UK over what they currently sell to the EU. Who pays for that?

And what if the domestic market doesn't take up the slack, even in the short term? Are the government going to subsidise the industry to ensure that people do not loose their jobs of livelyhoods?

Are where are the plans to increase the coast guard or army to patrol the waters to ensure no EU boats are fishing. Will it simply be left down to individual fishing boats to step in? Who covers the costs of this?

The above is just a few questions from one industry. Repeat (and amend) for multiple industries.

The main issue that I have with both Brexit and its supporters is that there are no plans and what they are going to do with the change that is coming.

I asked eskimohunt earlier when he posted the Farage video 'What do you want to do with the fish caught'. There was no answer other than, have a look at what other fishing countries do

Kermit.de.frog

All Conservative election candidates have signed a pact that they will vote for the agreement if the Tories get a majority.

Boost for Ireland.

Anything other than a tory majority and the quick passage of this deal will result in chaos on this island.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All Conservative election candidates have signed a pact that they will vote for the agreement if the Tories get a majority.

Boost for Ireland.

Anything other than a tory majority and the quick passage of this deal will result in chaos on this island.

Surely a Labour lead government would look to reduce the red lines and then have a 2nd ref which may result in revoke. That is the best outcome and could all be done and dusted within the current expected transition period.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely a Labour lead government would look to reduce the red lines and then have a 2nd ref which may result in revoke. That is the best outcome and could all be done and dusted within the current expected transition period.

Yeah but we know Kermit wants Brexit..

He is hoping that Brexit turns out to be a beacon of success that leads to the demise of the EU.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All Conservative election candidates have signed a pact that they will vote for the agreement if the Tories get a majority.

Boost for Ireland.

Anything other than a tory majority and the quick passage of this deal will result in chaos on this island.

It will be good for the Conservatives, for us there is still a chance of violence although it is lessened by the deal. The best thing for us is revoke which would ensure no violence so anybody that posts about chaos on this island but still want Brexit seems to have interesting priorities.


I found this tweet interesting when I think back to the Farage interview about how the UK can be successful like Norway.

https://twitter.com/Adam_SH69/status/1195759923885465601?s=20

Norway pays more per person to have a worse trade deal and no say in the EU, but their relationship with the EU isn't part of their success? So be like Nowray, successful outside of the EU, but don't be like Norway with a close EU relationship.

As for the 2016 vote and the report on Russian interference, The Sunday Times has the story that the MI5, MI6 and GCHQ could not rule out that it played a part in the Brexit referendum.

https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1195824956833181697?s=20

https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1195826848992833539?s=20

Nothing to see basically, just the heart of Vote Leave who has been found guilty of breaking laws in charge of the country. They are also sitting on a report calling into question their crowning achievement and their whole election message. Let's just carry on as normal while hospitals are understaffed, courts are falling apart and buildings keep burning due to the cladding and they did nothing.

Kermit.de.frog

lawred2 wrote: »

Yeah but we know Kermit wants Brexit..

He is hoping that Brexit turns out to be a beacon of success that leads to the demise of the EU.

No, actually.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All Conservative election candidates have signed a pact that they will vote for the agreement if the Tories get a majority.

Boost for Ireland.

Anything other than a tory majority and the quick passage of this deal will result in chaos on this island.

Yes, getting the deal passed would be good for us, but predicting chaos here if the Tories don't win is nonsence. There will be merely be more incredulous bemusement at the farce that is modern British politics. If anything the chaos will be on their island as the Scottish push for independance, though that will happen either way.

20silkcut

Enzokk wrote: »

It will be good for the Conservatives, for us there is still a chance of violence although it is lessened by the deal. The best thing for us is revoke which would ensure no violence so anybody that posts about chaos on this island but still want Brexit seems to have interesting priorities.

In fairness a strong conservative majority will have to be accepted as an endorsement of Brexit in the absence of a second referendum.
Any sort of definite clarity has to be welcome at this stage even if it is in strongly in favour of Brexit.
In my opinion a definite outcome would be welcome no matter which way it goes and at this point that definite outcome appears to be more likely a conservative majority.
A remain outcome appears unlikely and more likely to be chaotic with no definite road map. And the undercurrent of no deal constantly in the background. In fairness avoiding no deal is all that really concerns us. The last three years have been a nightmare, Johnson’s deal couldn’t be any worse.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No, actually.

You don't want to see the demise of the EU? Rlly? Your posting record has me fooled then.

briany

Doesn't the deal on the table still have majorly-concerning clauses? The clause of no parliamentary vote on extending the deal would be a massive one. If moderate Conservatives vote the deal through without that being amended then you'd have to say they're demonstrating some serious naivete.

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

...

"Norway pays £134 per person"
"The UK pays £29/person"
...

Norway pays more per person to have a worse trade deal and no say in the EU, but their relationship with the EU isn't part of their success? So be like Nowray, successful outside of the EU, but don't be like Norway with a close EU relationship.

I think the £134/person is the total cost to Norway, while the £29/person is just the part collected via UK income tax.

The UK net EU contribution is around £10bn/year or around £150/person/year (ppl 67mill)

This is compared to the benefits of being an EU member a very modest amount, but it is more then £29.

Lars

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

Norway pays more per person to have a worse trade deal and no say in the EU, but their relationship with the EU isn't part of their success? So be like Norway, successful outside of the EU, but don't be like Norway with a close EU relationship.

LOL at the UK having Germany++ )

Norway exports food , energy and raw materials to EU and others because they can afford to pay for EU access from the surplus.

The UK is an nett importer so no surplus.
And no advantage in controlling their exports of food , energy or raw materials.

Also Norway means accepting the four freedoms including movement, but without getting reciprocal access for services.

liamtech

I think we need to genuinely look at Brexit as the massive act of self harm that it is, but also that it is Populism pure and simple. Brexit was, we were told, about 'Taking back Control', and leaving the European Union Proper. Then it became about leaving the Customs Union and the Common Market, which the British People were not told during the Referendum - in fact the opposite

What about Euratom, which is Not Part of the European Union? Why is Britain Leaving an organization designed to allow for co-operation within the industry of Atomic Energy, and Radio-Medicine?

https://thebulletin.org/2017/07/what-is-euratom-and-why-has-it-emerged-as-a-brexit-battleground/

This article try's to explain why they are pursuing this course, and does so by pointing to a the fact that as it stands, Euratom is covered (to a certain degree, and by precedents which are not set in stone) by the ECJ - when it is pointed out that this doesn't bother the Swiss, the point is simply swept aside (take back control, Freedom for Britain etc)

http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UK-continues-to-prepare-for-Euratom-exit

https://www.power-technology.com/news/uk-euratom-brexit/

I would argue that Brexit has now become an Anti European Populist Campaign. Basically Brexit is about removing the UK from Europe Proper at this stage, as leaving Euratom, an organization which is distinct from the EU, is unnecessary in accomplishing BoJo's core Brexit goals.

This is Populism pure and simple - What about the Council of Europe? WHat about the Eurovision - Quick Britain you better hurry to escape these organizations too - TAKE BACK CONTROL!!! - total farce

Prime Minister Johnson surging to a 17-point lead over Corbyn in the latest YouGov poll.

A mere 15% are opting for revocation of Article 50.

The more the days pass, the greater this lead appears to be for Johnson. Let's hope it tops 50 percent next week and Get Brexit Done!

And now YouGov's latest poll for the Sunday Times, found 45 per cent of people quizzed are intending to back Mr Johnson, with only 28 per cent trusting Jeremy Corbyn to take the helm. The Lib Dems are on 15 per cent.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Prime Minister Johnson surging to a 17-point lead over Corbyn in the latest YouGov poll.

A mere 15% are opting for revocation of Article 50.

The more the days pass, the greater this lead appears to be for Johnson. Let's hope it tops 50 percent next week and Get Brexit Done!

It wouldn't be a surprise if he gets an overall majority, but it will surely herald the break up of the UK. Scotland will be out first followed soon after by NI. The UK cannot survive a hard Brexit in one piece.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

It wouldn't be a surprise if he gets an overall majority, but it will surely herald the break up of the UK. Scotland will be out first followed soon after by NI. The UK cannot survive a hard Brexit in one piece.

I don't think it matters who is in power.

After all, Corbyn is in favour of a second referendum on Scotland. If anything, the UK breaking up is just as likely - if not more likely - under a Corbyn regime than a Johnson Administration.

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

Prime Minister Johnson surging to a 17-point lead over Corbyn in the latest YouGov poll.

A mere 15% are opting for revocation of Article 50.

The more the days pass, the greater this lead appears to be for Johnson. Let's hope it tops 50 percent next week and Get Brexit Done!

We really wont know for sure until 2-3 weeks for now. We haven't seen any proper head to head debates, nor have we seen proper scrutinization of the various political positions..

However even on these figures it is damning for the remain side, given Britain's antiquated FPTP system . Im not going to argue this with you, you are in favor of Brexit, fair enough. You are also in favor of several elements of what Brexit means, which i disagree with - lets agree to disagree shall we?

But to your argument that 45% now favor the conservatives, i would simply reply that by said logic, 55% do NOT favor said party. Even if you add the Brexit Party to the mix you arrive at a 50/50ish position. So its not over yet, perhaps keep the champagne on ice for now, my friend

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think it matters who is in power.

After all, Corbyn is in favour of a second referendum on Scotland. If anything, the UK breaking up is just as likely - if not more likely - under a Corbyn regime than a Johnson Administration.

Some truth in that, but I suspect a Johnson majority will hasten a Scottish exit (and guarantee the Scots vote to leave).

liamtech

liamtech wrote: »

We really wont know for sure until 2-3 weeks for now. We haven't seen any proper head to head debates, nor have we seen proper scrutinization of the various political positions..

However even on these figures it is damning for the remain side, given Britain's antiquated FPTP system . Im not going to argue this with you, you are in favor of Brexit, fair enough. You are also in favor of several elements of what Brexit means, which i disagree with - lets agree to disagree shall we?

But to your argument that 45% now favor the conservatives, i would simply reply that by said logic, 55% do NOT favor said party. Even if you add the Brexit Party to the mix you arrive at a 50/50ish position. So its not over yet, perhaps keep the champagne on ice for now, my friend

The reality is that if that poll read that Corbyn was on 39-points and Johnson on 28-points, you wouldn't be gathering excuses like you are now.

It's because Johnson is leading that has you in this boundless flurry.

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

The reality is that if that poll read that Corbyn was on 39-points and Johnson on 28-points, you wouldn't be gathering excuses like you are now.

It's because Johnson is leading that has you in this boundless flurry.

I think a sprinkle of cold water in the face of those who have become triumphant before the game has even reached half time, is not a bad thing. Your boy will undoubtedly lose in Scotland; Northern Ireland will not return as many pro Brexit MP's as before; and might i remind you sir, that the polls leading up to, and on the very night of the referendum, proved to be incorrect.

This game is only just beginning, and your boy has a tendency to score own goals in previous matches -

4 Weeks to go, - and also, a draw is a win for our side

fash

Deleted User wrote: »

The more the days pass, the greater this lead appears to be for Johnson. Let's hope it tops 50 percent next week and Get Brexit Done!

I think you mean "Get brexit started" - brexit will take a decade or 2 and the debate about brexit hasn't yet begun.

fash

fash wrote: »

I think you mean "Get brexit started" - brexit will take a decade or 2 and the debate about brexit hasn't yet begun.

I honestly can't see the European Union lasting in its existing form for the next 2 decades.

It either reforms at some point, or it dies.

That's not based on anything concrete, of course, but I have a suspicion that when another economic crash happens - as they inevitably always do - it will retrigger a Eurosceptic wave stronger than the wave over the past 10 years.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I honestly can't see the European Union lasting in its existing form for the next 2 decades.

It either reforms at some point, or it dies.

That's not based on anything concrete, of course, but I have a suspicion that when another economic crash happens - as they inevitably always do - it will retrigger a Eurosceptic wave stronger than the wave over the past 10 years.

If it was functioning purely as a political union and nothing else, you could make the case but given that it is operating as a highly successful and efficient single market and customs union, the chances of this are slim - most people, whether left, right or centre, buy into the idea of the Single Market.

Leroy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I honestly can't see the European Union lasting in its existing form for the next 2 decades.

It either reforms at some point, or it dies.

That's not based on anything concrete, of course, but I have a suspicion that when another economic crash happens - as they inevitably always do - it will retrigger a Eurosceptic wave stronger than the wave over the past 10 years.

Pre Brexit that probably would have been a big risk. But Brexit has shown, and even Johnson and Farage acknowledge this, that it is far better to be involved with the EU than not.

The usual cry from Brexiteers is that EU trade pack is fine, just not the political stuff. However, if you don't have a centralised justice system for example then every country will simply end up doing whatever suits it at the time and this they can no longer has seamless trade.

Of course the EU may fall apart, the US may split. Nothing is certain.

First Up

eskimohunt wrote:

It's because Johnson is leading that has you in this boundless flurry.

It matters little if its Jonnson or Corbyn who leads them over a cliff.

Nobody outside the UK really gives a sh*t what the UK does. More important things to do.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Pre Brexit that probably would have been a big risk. But Brexit has shown, and even Johnson and Farage acknowledge this, that it is far better to be involved with the EU than not.

The usual cry from Brexiteers is that EU trade pack is fine, just not the political stuff. However, if you don't have a centralised justice system for example then every country will simply end up doing whatever suits it at the time and this they can no longer has seamless trade.

Of course the EU may fall apart, the US may split. Nothing is certain.

You cannot have a deeply integrated single market using common laws, rules and regulations without the political union aspect.

Get rid of the political union and you have a very basic trading bloc, but with many barriers still in place.