Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

fash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I honestly can't see the European Union lasting in its existing form for the next 2 decades.

It either reforms at some point, or it dies.

That's not based on anything concrete, of course, but I have a suspicion that when another economic crash happens - as they inevitably always do - it will retrigger a Eurosceptic wave stronger than the wave over the past 10 years.

I believe what we are seeing is the death spiral of the UK and that what brexiters are doing is projecting from their understanding of what is and will happen to the UK onto the EU. Time will tell.
I certainly believe that considering the delusional nonsense that brexiters believe about the EU, their understanding and ability to predict what happens to the EU is to say the least compromised.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Norway exports food , energy and raw materials to EU and others because they can afford to pay for EU access from the surplus.

Plus Norway has essentially free electricity - 100% renewable, mostly hydropower.

How about the UK? Scotland has a huge potential but...

UK isn't Norway. Independent Scotland would be quite similar to Norway though.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

Nobody outside the UK really gives a sh*t what the UK does. More important things to do.

With the exception of Ireland of course, threads like this proves this point.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

The more the days pass, the greater this lead appears to be for Johnson. Let's hope it tops 50 percent next week and Get Brexit Done!

Sadly for Britain, eskimo is not alone in buying into Johnson's untrue slogan. An earlier YouGov poll provided this insight into Why do people support Boris Johnson's Brexit deal?

Boris Johnson’s deal with the EU may not have majority support among the public but more people support it than don’t. And when we look in more detail at why people support it, it’s clear that the Tory tagline, “get Brexit done” – or at least the sentiment it encapsulates – is resonating with voters.

... when asked to give their reasons for supporting or opposing the deal in their own words, there is just one dominant reason people give for supporting the deal: getting Brexit done. No other identifiable category from our manual coding of these freeform responses accounted for even 10% of supporters’ main reasons.

So the delusion that Brexit will be "done" on any given Johnson-defined date is widespread. A lost cause, I would say.

As for the voting intention, I have found it impossible to get any information on the "don't know/won't vote" proportion of the recent surveys. "Won't vote" voters can be safely excluded without affecting the overall result, but "Don't knows" can sometimes be a significant wild-card, especially in the final days of a campaign when a badly timed phrase or carefully timed disclosure can shift the undecideds one way or another.

briany

Get Brexit Done doesn't mean to finish Brexit. It means getting the country past the point of no-return.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

With the exception of Ireland of course, threads like this proves this point.

I'm talking about what goes on internally in the UK. Of course their car crash departure from the EU matters to us (and the other 26 to varying degrees) but the shape of the pile of rubble they are left to clean up is for them to worry about.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Sadly for Britain, eskimo is not alone in buying into Johnson's untrue slogan. An earlier YouGov poll provided this insight into Why do people support Boris Johnson's Brexit deal?

Nobody is suggesting that the fallout from Brexit will be resolved; that's as yet to come.

But at least the Brexit Deal will have passed in parliament, and that signals the end of the beginning.

That alone is worthy of celebration.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

I'm talking about what goes on internally in the UK. Of course their car crash departure from the EU matters to us (and the other 26 to varying degrees) but the shape of the pile of rubble they are left to clean up is for them to worry about.

My point still stands as what happens in the UK will affect Ireland for decades to come.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Nobody is suggesting that the fallout from Brexit will be resolved; that's as yet to come.

But at least the Brexit Deal will have passed in parliament, and that signals the end of the beginning.

That alone is worthy of celebration.

One wonders how many Leave supporters know that Brexit could go on for 10-15 years or that the UK could easily crash to a No Deal scenario in December 2020.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Nobody is suggesting that the fallout from Brexit will be resolved; that's as yet to come.

But at least the Brexit Deal will have passed in parliament, and that signals the end of the beginning.

That alone is worthy of celebration.

Why? The UK have siphoned off parts of its union in the process. It has suffered big economic decline already and the country is more divided than ever.

It seems the only thing to cheer is based on the hope that this is as bad as it will get. But everything points to things getting harder and worse for the UK from here on out.

The news last week that Tesla had picked Germany to build their battery plant, and could not consider UK due to Brexit, is a massive blow to the UK future and was, unsurprisingly, largely ignored by the Brexit supporting press.

It shows, yet again, that there is no plan on how the UK is going to reshape its economy to deal with the changes brought about by Brexit.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

One wonders how many Leave supporters know that Brexit could go on for 10-15 years or that the UK could easily crash to a No Deal scenario in December 2020.

This is precisely what I'm hoping for, that is unless Boris can negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with the EU.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote: »

This is precisely what I'm hoping for, that is unless Boris can negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with the EU.

So you are hoping for a no deal?

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

This is precisely what I'm hoping for, that is unless Boris can negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with the EU.

Why would you hope for that? What are the benefits of Crash out that you foresee?

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

My point still stands as what happens in the UK will affect Ireland for decades to come.

But their political convolutions are not going to affect or change their relationship with the EU. Of course the disintegration of the UK would have consequences but that's too hard and far away to predict.

In the meantime they will just continue to lose trade, investment, jobs, international influence and credibility while they fight over the carcass.

Leave them at it. We have more important things to do, including taking their international investment and EU customers and cutting the UK out of supply chains. That's where our energy and focus should be.

20silkcut

First Up wrote: »

But their political convolutions are not going to affect or change their relationship with the EU. Of course the disintegration of the UK would have consequences but that's too hard and far away to predict.

In the meantime they will just continue to lose trade, investment, jobs, international influence and credibility while they fight over the carcass.

Leave them at it. We have more important things to do, including taking their international investment and EU customers and cutting the UK out of supply chains. That's where our energy and focus should be.

As long as we have a transition period while trade negotiations are ongoing we will be fine. As long as we avoid the no deal cliff edge we are grand.
And there are benefits to brexit as well not least being the only English speaking country in the EU.
And from the agricultural point of view having Britain away from influencing the CAP and shaping agricultural trade agreements is a benefit to Irish farmers as well. Britain has always had a very casual expendable attitude to Agricultural policy, that won’t be missed.

McGiver

McGiver wrote: »

So you are hoping for a no deal?

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why would you hope for that? What are the benefits of Crash out that you foresee?

Yes, if Boris Johnson cannot negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with EU forces, he should leave with No Deal.

I think the mere threat of it should reap some dividends for Boris.

But if the EU is unwilling to compromise, then No Deal must be implemented.

Though I prefer Farage's term: Clean Break Brexit!

20silkcut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, if Boris Johnson cannot negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with EU forces, he should leave with No Deal.

I think the mere threat of it should reap some dividends for Boris.

But if the EU is unwilling to compromise, then No Deal must be implemented.

Though I prefer Farage's term: Clean Break Brexit!

Don’t be coloured by what your reading here. While we here in Ireland may be terrified of no deal, the vast majority of the EU are not and many would welcome it.
It is not a realistic UK negotiating tool if it was it would have been used at this stage rather than humiliatingly seeking three( or is it four ) extensions.
We don’t fear the brits going for no deal but rather the likes of macron etc.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, if Boris Johnson cannot negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with EU forces, he should leave with No Deal.

I think the mere threat of it should reap some dividends for Boris.

But if the EU is unwilling to compromise, then No Deal must be implemented.

Though I prefer Farage's term: Clean Break Brexit!

What you happen to prefer to call it is irrelevant. Maybe if we rename Brexit the "Super brilliant everyone gets want they want thingy" means its all better?

So you can't name a single benefit apart from a slogan?

So what is the plan for 1st January 2021. Will UK citizens resident in EU countries still have free health access? Who is going to pay the tariffs on exports?

Who is going to man the border between GB and NI?

And then you start from total zero in any trade negotiations with the EU.

First Up

20silkcut wrote:

As long as we have a transition period while trade negotiations are ongoing we will be fine. As long as we avoid the no deal cliff edge we are grand. And there are benefits to brexit as well not least being the only English speaking country in the EU. And from the agricultural point of view having Britain away from influencing the CAP and shaping agricultural trade agreements is a benefit to Irish farmers as well. Britain has always had a very casual expendable attitude to Agricultural policy, that won’t be missed.

They won't be missed much around Brussels; I can tell you that for certain.

The shape of the rubble in the UK will make little difference to their terms of trade with the EU. We will tell them what they will be and then wait for the UK to come up with the parliamentary arithmetic to accept them.

It is entirely delusional for the UK to think it has any leverage whatever.

An Claidheamh

Tory politician on 'Ridge on Sunday' about immigration system.

States that Boris Johnson successfully reopened the withdrawal agreement and make changes when everyone said he couldn't.

Except he didn't.

As he couldn't.

Host didn't even notice he made it up.

#Britishmediastilluseless

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, if Boris Johnson cannot negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with EU forces, he should leave with No Deal.

I think the mere threat of it should reap some dividends for Boris.

If we're back to this nonsense again, I think it's time for me to spend more time with my rain-soaked veg patch! :rolleyes:

fash

Deleted User wrote: »

But if the EU is unwilling to compromise, then No Deal must be implemented.

The UK has folded every time push has come to shove- literally every time. Faster than superman on laundry day etc.
Even the tiny amount of leverage the UK had in relation to a no deal brexit- holding Ireland and EU citizens hostage- is now gone.
In addition, I strongly suspect that what you/fellow brexiters consider a "free trade deal" and what the words actually mean in reality are 2 very, very different things and the enforceable obligations that will be imposed on the UK (which will mirror those imposed on others who want a similar level of access) in exchange for allowing it to trade reasonably freely will not be to your liking.

gooch2k9

First Up wrote: »

They won't be missed much around Brussels; I can tell you that for certain.

The shape of the rubble in the UK will make little difference to their terms of trade with the EU. We will tell them what they will be and then wait for the UK to come up with the parliamentary arithmetic to accept them.

It is entirely delusional for the UK to think it has any leverage whatever.

It's a delusion they have had since before the referendum and aren't waking up from. I think the EU shouldn't extend any longer if the Conservatives are returned with a majority, it'll be quite obvious what is most important to the voters at that point.

Obviously a referendum would be a much better way of finding that out.

An Claidheamh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, if Boris Johnson cannot negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with EU forces, he should leave with No Deal.

I think the mere threat of it should reap some dividends for Boris.

We both know, UK don't have the bottle.

Threats are meaningless when you keep making them.

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

Though I prefer Farage's term: Clean Break Brexit!

Unless you want the UK to be the North Korea of Europe, there is no clean break Brexit

First Up

gooch2k9 wrote:

It's a delusion they have had since before the referendum and aren't waking up from. I think the EU shouldn't extend any longer if the Conservatives are returned with a majority, it'll be quite obvious what is most important to the voters at that point.

Any UK official or politician that has spent 5 minutes in Brussels is in any doubt that the game is over. Only Daily Express readers can imagine otherwise.

The bravado is just for local UK political consumption.

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, if Boris Johnson cannot negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with EU forces, he should leave with No Deal.

I think the mere threat of it should reap some dividends for Boris.

But if the EU is unwilling to compromise, then No Deal must be implemented.

Though I prefer Farage's term: Clean Break Brexit!

You have discussed various scenarios involving Brexit, deals, no-deals, Curbing immigration. As someone who is clearly a Hard-Eurosceptic you obviously favor a hard-Brexit - that is out of the CM/CU etc

Can i ask you directly; Do you favor a no-deal Brexit? and if so, Why?

And what could you explain, if anything, would you believe to be positive about such an outcome. for both Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and the Republic?

I would very much appreciate it if you could genuinely answer these questions - to be clear this is no longer a question about is brexit good, or bad. Or what type of Brexit you favor; i am asking you to explain your position on a NO-DEAL BREXIT - a Clean Break Brexit, as Farage Calls it

Respectfully

Strazdas

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Unless you want the UK to be the North Korea of Europe, there is no clean break Brexit

Many hard Brexiteers want exactly that : a permanent No Deal is their preferred option

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Plus Norway has essentially free electricity - 100% renewable, mostly hydropower.

How about the UK? Scotland has a huge potential but...

UK isn't Norway. Independent Scotland would be quite similar to Norway though.

Scotland has already phased out coal and exports 26% of it's electricity to other parts of the UK.

Overall the UK exports the same value of hydrocarbons that it imports, but the exports are almost totally Scottish oil and gas.

Scottish Salmon and Whisky represent a large proportion of UK food and drink exports. Scotland also grows quite a lot of the UK's food.

A Norway deal isn't all that bad for a small country like Scotland on to road to (re)joining the EU.



Norway++ is a bad deal for the UK, without Scotland it's even worse.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is precisely what I'm hoping for, that is unless Boris can negotiate a free trade-style arrangement with the EU.

You are precisely hoping for a no deal brexit but at the same time hoping johnson can negotiate a free trade arrangement. Are you ever so slightly confused about how this process works?