Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Oh, almost certainly. For anyone who was in two minds about whether or not to continue living and working in the UK or move back/on to another EU country, it was a convenient push to making a firm decision. I know of several people (and indeed we have at least one example here on this thread) who accelerated or finalised plans to leave the UK because of the socio-economic changes seen since (and attributed to) Brexit.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

One wonders though if Brexit has hastened the exodus. The same figures report that net EU immigration is down to 48k (a pittance for a developed country of 65 million people).

I think so. Remember a story posted here a while back about fruit being left to rot because there werent enough migrant workers to pick it. Not sure there were hard stats in it but it was certainly the view of the farm owners anyway.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting stat this evening that there are only 380,000 Irish born people living and working in the UK in 2019, down from 430,000 in 2011.

Seems like Brexit is playing havoc with the migration stats (the recovery of the Irish economy would be another factor too of course).

If my cousins living in London are anything to go by, they're leaving because of the huge influx of non-EU immigrants who are overrunning the formally "Irish" parts of the city.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If my cousins living in London are anything to go by, they're leaving because of the huge influx of non-EU immigrants who are overrunning the formally "Irish" parts of the city.

I remember Kilburn going back when the national was in full swing and they'd send the bowl around collecting for the "cause", but that kilburn seemed to be already fading by the time i finished my stint there. I was last over there about 10 years ago and was struck not just by how un-irish it felt but also how vibrant it seemed. That was just my impression though, how it affects the daily lives of people living there, i couldn't tell.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I remember Kilburn going back when the national was in full swing and they'd send the bowl around collecting for the "cause", but that kilburn seemed to be already fading by the time i finished my stint there. I was last over there about 10 years ago and was struck not just by how un-irish it felt but also how vibrant it seemed. That was just my impression though, how it affects the daily lives of people living there, i couldn't tell.

For my relatives, who have been there since the 1950s, they no longer feel at "home" there like they used to when it was an Irish "ghetto". The main issue is that many of the incomers have brought their drugs & violence culture from their homelands and there are now turf wars ongoing between the various gangs.

Tacitus Kilgore

Deleted User wrote: »

For my relatives, who have been there since the 1950s, they no longer feel at "home" there like they used to when it was an Irish "ghetto". The main issue is that many of the incomers have brought their drugs & violence culture from their homelands and there are now turf wars ongoing between the various gangs.

And the people who were there before the Irish never again felt at "home" once all those paddies started showing up with their drinking, potato & bombing people culture from their homelands.

Professor Moriarty

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

And the people who were there before the Irish never again felt at "home" once all those paddies started showing up with their drinking, potato & bombing people culture from their homelands.

You can't beat a bit of the auld racism to add to the festive cheer.

Tacitus Kilgore

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

And the people who were there before the Irish never again felt at "home" once all those paddies started showing up with their drinking, potato & bombing people culture from their homelands.

They got pissed off and left back in the 1950s, this is one of the features of mass importation of people, they often replace a previous population as opposed to integrating.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

For my relatives, who have been there since the 1950s, they no longer feel at "home" there like they used to when it was an Irish "ghetto". The main issue is that many of the incomers have brought their drugs & violence culture from their homelands and there are now turf wars ongoing between the various gangs.

I dont know thats a brexit issue though as those old irish areas and other working class areas seemed to me to be changing decades ago. Gentrification as much a factor as anything in areas like camden and Highbury where property prices are gone stratospheric. But brexit likely going to see more irish wanting to return home for sure, dont think thats in dispute.

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting stat this evening that there are only 380,000 Irish born people living and working in the UK in 2019, down from 430,000 in 2011.

Seems like Brexit is playing havoc with the migration stats (the recovery of the Irish economy would be another factor too of course).

In 2011, Ireland was still suffering the severe effects after the recession. The size of the Irish born population has more to do with that then Brexit.

To be honest, many posters are far to quick to jump to "as a result of Brexit" than they should. For one, it's generally wrong and two, just displays how their bias effects their judgement

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In 2011, Ireland was still suffering the severe effects after the recession. The size of the Irish born population has more to do with that then Brexit.

To be honest, many posters are far to quick to jump to "as a result of Brexit" than they should. For one, it's generally wrong and two, just displays how their bias effects their judgement

EU migration has fallen through the floor since June 2016 (now 48k)......coincidence?

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

For my relatives, who have been there since the 1950s, they no longer feel at "home" there like they used to when it was an Irish "ghetto". The main issue is that many of the incomers have brought their drugs & violence culture from their homelands and there are now turf wars ongoing between the various gangs.

That hardly explains why they are leaving the UK altogether - much like the US, when immigrant communities like the Irish move up the social scale, they just drift to the suburbs, so the racist commentary is superfluous.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

EU migration has fallen through the floor since June 2016 (now 48k)......coincidence?

It has as much to do with an improving economy at home as much as anything else, why leave the country when there are jobs locally.

briany

If the Conservatives win the imminent GE and get this deal signed, would I be wrong to be worried that they will continue to act in bad faith and wriggle out of the agreement, or aspects thereof? Am I remembering rightly that Gove said whatever the UK agrees to they can always change later on?

It really seems that with the talk of a U.S. trade deal, the UK cannot have it both ways. They cannot have a comprehensive deal with the U.S. and the E.U. without long protracted negotiations considering the way that both of those blocs seem to be headed, and this suggests that the attitude of the UK to the EU will only deepen in opposition as attempts to cut the quickest of quickie trade deals goes awry. On the one hand, the UK currently has alignment with the EU which ought to make a trade deal easier, but on the other hand, they don't intend to maintain that alignment. The fact that they can diverge and have bespoke deals with other markets was a major selling point for Brexit in the first place.

Interesting times ahead if the deal is ratified, imo.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It has as much to do with an improving economy at home as much as anything else, why leave the country when there are jobs locally.

Do irish people go to the uk now with a view to a permanent move like folk did 50 or 60 years ago? I wouldn't think so anyway. Its a good life for 10-15 years but people i know start to think about coming home in their 30s or early 40s to raise their kids and have them schooled here. They have that choice that previous generations for the most part never had.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Do irish people go to the uk now with a view to a permanent move like folk did 50 or 60 years ago? I wouldn't think so anyway. Its a good life for 10-15 years but people i know start to think about coming home in their 30s or early 40s to raise their kids and have them schooled here. They have that choice that previous generations for the most part never had.

Probably correct, back then, Ireland was seen as a hopeless place to do well unless you knew the right people.
These days, there is no real need to go to the UK anymore, it is also noticeable that the Central European countries that had large emigration in the early 2000s are now actively encouraging those people back. Not just from the UK back to Poland for example, the Polish government have reached out to Poles in Ireland inviting them to come "home".

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Probably correct, back then, Ireland was seen as a hopeless place to do well unless you knew the right people.
These days, there is no real need to go to the UK anymore, it is also noticeable that the Central European countries that had large emigration in the early 2000s are now actively encouraging those people back. Not just from the UK back to Poland for example, the Polish government have reached out to Poles in Ireland inviting them to come "home".

Many have genuinely settled though. I know lots of Polish people and the ones ten years or more here tell me they wouldn't dream of returning to Poland.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote:

Probably correct, back then, Ireland was seen as a hopeless place to do well unless you knew the right people. These days, there is no real need to go to the UK anymore, it is also noticeable that the Central European countries that had large emigration in the early 2000s are now actively encouraging those people back. Not just from the UK back to Poland for example, the Polish government have reached out to Poles in Ireland inviting them to come "home".

The only place which had large emigration was Poland and later on Romania.

Central Europe nationals in the UK:
Poles - 900k to 1M
Hungarians - 95k
Slovaks - 85k
Czechs - 45k

Southeast Europe:
Romanians - 290k
Bulgarians - 95k

Compare with:
Italians - 162k
Germans - 297k

And also the only place which encourages people to come back is Poland due to the enormous demographic effect and also due to PiS National Socialist policy...

In short - Brexit Xenophobia was always about the Poles and Romanians.

CelticRambler

MrMusician18 wrote: »

To be honest, many posters are far to quick to jump to "as a result of Brexit" than they should. For one, it's generally wrong and two, just displays how their bias effects their judgement

That would be a fair criticism ... if it wasn't wrong! In addition to copious anecdotal evidence, backed up by specific examples of employers of Europeans moving operations out of the UK because of Brexit (EMA, EYO, EBA, etc) there is an absolute correlation between EU migration and the Brexit referendum:


Whether the Brexiters like it or not, an independent/isolationist GB was already a less attractive place in which to live and work in 2016, and the shenanigans since the result was announced has made it even less so ... unless, of course, you live in one of Trump's "sh*thole countries" where anything is better than staying where you are.

Deleted User wrote: »

It has as much to do with an improving economy at home as much as anything else, why leave the country when there are jobs locally.

Not just "at home" either. There is a whole generation of Europeans who have figured out how to make Freedom of Movement work to their advantage, aided and abetted by Ryanair, Easyjet, Wizz, etc. and many of them have decided that an isolationist GB is just not the kind of place they want to settle.

While not everyone chooses to emigrate for purely economic reasons, it does help if one's destination country has a good or improving economy, and here is the point that the Brexit-Leavers seem to have missed: Britain is already competing on the world stage - competing for immigrants - and losing, at least as far as EU migrants are concerned.

An Ciarraioch

Strazdas wrote: »

Many have genuinely settled though. I know lots of Polish people and the ones ten years or more here tell me they wouldn't dream of returning to Poland.

9,000 Poles had taken out dual citizenship by 2016, and that figure can only have increased in the following three years.

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

It has as much to do with an improving economy at home as much as anything else, why leave the country when there are jobs locally.

It also has a lot to do with demographics, the Polish birthrate almost halved in the 20 years from the Mid 1980s. There were a lot of Polish twenty somethings in the 2004-2010 period, there won't be near as many in the next decade, and so less will emigrate, and that isn't counting the substantially improved Polish economy.



In England the Brextremists used a once off bulge in immigration, which was going to decline anyway, to permanently redirect Britain.

Nody

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It also has a lot to do with demographics, the Polish birthrate almost halved in the 20 years from the Mid 1980s. There were a lot of Polish twenty somethings in the 2004-2010 period, there won't be near as many in the next decade, and so less will emigrate, and that isn't counting the substantially improved Polish economy.

Yet not making as much as they could do internationally and let's not forget the political party in charge as well; I highly doubt many young Polish (esp. those who've already left) would feel at home with the social attitudes of the main party. This means that the mobile and well educated youths of today are likely to move out in the world while those who remain are more likely to not have the same opportunities. Those coming home will probably end up in good positions (middle management and up basically) while the once who remained are likely to be feel ignored/unfairly treated. It's a great growing ground for the main party's idology but it will cause big frictions in society in general as well.

Thargor

Johnson is live on Sky News right now talking about Brexit and there is literally an easily disproved lie in every sentence out of his mouth, no exaggeration. The crowd laughed at him a couple of times forcing him to say "No Its true! Its true!".

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

That would be a fair criticism ... if it wasn't wrong! In addition to copious anecdotal evidence, backed up by specific examples of employers of Europeans moving operations out of the UK because of Brexit (EMA, EYO, EBA, etc) there is an absolute correlation between EU migration and the Brexit referendum:


Whether the Brexiters like it or not, an independent/isolationist GB was already a less attractive place in which to live and work in 2016, and the shenanigans since the result was announced has made it even less so ... unless, of course, you live in one of Trump's "sh*thole countries" where anything is better than staying where you are.



Not just "at home" either. There is a whole generation of Europeans who have figured out how to make Freedom of Movement work to their advantage, aided and abetted by Ryanair, Easyjet, Wizz, etc. and many of them have decided that an isolationist GB is just not the kind of place they want to settle.

While not everyone chooses to emigrate for purely economic reasons, it does help if one's destination country has a good or improving economy, and here is the point that the Brexit-Leavers seem to have missed: Britain is already competing on the world stage - competing for immigrants - and losing, at least as far as EU migrants are concerned.

Britain has it`s problems with brexit but it`s probably safer in good old Blighty than France right now-no wonder Macron is trying to divert attention elsewhere!
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/world/europe/france-strike-pensions.html

serfboard

RobMc59 wrote: »

Britain has it`s problems with brexit but it`s probably safer in good old Blighty than France right now

Safer for who? Safer for people on zero-hours contracts? Safer for people who live in nine of the ten poorest regions in Northern Europe?

RobMc59

serfboard wrote: »

Safer for who? Safer for people on zero-hours contracts? Safer for people who live in nine of the ten poorest regions in Northern Europe?

The inequality in the UK is shameful as are zero hour contracts ,I merely pointed out that whilst it`s popular to point out the myriad of faults in the UK,there are other parts of Europe having problems too.

ambro25

RobMc59 wrote: »

The inequality in the UK is shameful as are zero hour contracts ,I merely pointed out that whilst it`s popular to point out the myriad of faults in the UK,there are other parts of Europe having problems too.

And Brexiting is going some way to solve those problems in the UK how, exactly?

France has its problems, like all other countries to greater or lesser, respective extents. Pointing this out without any rationale about how Brexit will improve the Brits' lot is rather pointless, if not merely whataboutery.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

Britain has it`s problems with brexit but it`s probably safer in good old Blighty than France right now-no wonder Macron is trying to divert attention elsewhere!
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/world/europe/france-strike-pensions.html

Paywalled, but the NYT is hardly reporting anything more than the local press. It's been a beautiful day here today - crisp, cold, sunny, virtually no traffic on the roads, and a president who refuses to U-turn on his promise to get the country back on its feet, and is doing a very good job of it so far, despite much huffing and puffing by the sans-culottes.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Paywalled, but the NYT is hardly reporting anything more than the local press. It's been a beautiful day here today - crisp, cold, sunny, virtually no traffic on the roads, and a president who refuses to U-turn on his promise to get the country back on its feet, and is doing a very good job of it so far, despite much huffing and puffing by the sans-culottes.

I purposely avoided the express headlines which made it sound like an apocalypse!

An Ciarraioch

CelticRambler wrote: »

Paywalled, but the NYT is hardly reporting anything more than the local press. It's been a beautiful day here today - crisp, cold, sunny, virtually no traffic on the roads, and a president who refuses to U-turn on his promise to get the country back on its feet, and is doing a very good job of it so far, despite much huffing and puffing by the sans-culottes.

Objectively, I wouldn't be terribly enamoured of the Macron platform, but unless something extraordinary happens in the next three years, he should still be re-elected, given that Le Pen is his only real rival in the polls.