Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

Not quite sure what he thought was going to happen if NI stayed aligned with the EU...

Corbyn says secret report shows customs checks between Northern Ireland and Britain

Labour leader says report ‘exposes falsehoods that Johnson has been putting forward’

“It says this deal will be the equivalent of imposing tariffs on 30 per cent of all purchases made in Northern Ireland,” he said.

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Not quite sure what he thought was going to happen if NI stayed aligned with the EU...

Corbyn says secret report shows customs checks between Northern Ireland and Britain

I am not sure who the 'he' is you are referring to because Johnson clearly contradicted that report and his own Brexit secretary (whatever his name is). Another day, another lie from the PM.

Bannasidhe

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Not quite sure what he thought was going to happen if NI stayed aligned with the EU...

Corbyn says secret report shows customs checks between Northern Ireland and Britain

If 'he' is Corbyn it doesn't matter what he thought was going to happen. It's not Corbyn's deal.
What matters is what Johnson said would happen.

Seth Brundle

Yeah, I guess. I had been thinking that Johnson is a known compulsive liar whereas Corbyn should not be surprised of an obvious outcome from allowing NI to align with the EU.
Still it's election time and everything is fair game to criticise

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Yeah, I guess. I had been thinking that Johnson is a known compulsive liar whereas Corbyn should not be surprised of an obvious outcome from allowing NI to align with the EU.
Still it's election time and everything is fair game to criticise

What does my head in is that the way you are supposed to deal with a liar is to beat him or her with the facts. But what do you do when the person still denies the truth when the facts are known? And then a reply from the press is, no big deal because we knew the truth all along. How about calling him out about it?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1202895283916562432?s=20

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1202918355990175744?s=20


So there we have Laura Kuenssberg tweeting the document isn't a surprise as others have confirmed this before already. But then later Johnson is doubling down on the lie. How are you supposed to counter this? I have a feeling the best result will be a majority for Johnson and 5 years of pain and systematic selling off of the NHS before voters will reject those that brought this to them and Labour with a more popular leader then having a Blair like majority to turn around the damage. The problem is there will be pain before this happens and the UK may be too closely aligned to the US by this point due to Brexit.

robindch

Alexandra Hall-Hall, the UK's lead Brexit envoy in Washington, has cashed in her chips with some energy:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/06/uk/top-british-diplomat-quits-brexit-intl/index.html

CNN wrote:

As UK Brexit Counsellor, Hall-Hall was tasked with explaining Britain's approach to leaving the European Union to US lawmakers and policy makers on Capitol Hill and in the White House. She suggested that her diplomatic role -- intended to be politically neutral -- was co-opted to deliver messages that were "neither fully honest nor politically impartial." Hall Hall said that she had filed a formal complaint about being asked to convey overtly partisan language on Brexit in Washington.

Alexandra Hall wrote:

I have been increasingly dismayed by the way in which our political leaders have tried to deliver Brexit, with reluctance to address honestly, even with our own citizens, the challenges and trade-offs which Brexit involves; the use of misleading or disingenuous arguments about the implications of the various options before us; and some behaviour towards our institutions, which, were it happening in another country, we would almost certainly as diplomats have received instructions to register our concern. It makes our job to promote democracy and the rule of law that much harder, if we are not seen to be upholding these core values at home. [...]

I am also at a stage in life where I would prefer to do something more rewarding with my time, than peddle half-truths on behalf of a government I do not trust. [...]

Each person has to find their own level of comfort with this situation. Since I have no other element to my job except Brexit, I find my position has become unbearable personally, and untenable professionally.

CelticRambler

The Guardian reporting a CNN story about the "Brexit Ambassador to the US" quitting:

“I have been increasingly dismayed by the way in which our political leaders have tried to deliver Brexit, with reluctance to address honestly, even with our own citizens, the challenges and trade-offs which Brexit involves; the use of misleading or disingenuous arguments about the implications of the various options before us; and some behaviour towards our institutions, which, were it happening in another country, we would almost certainly as diplomats have received instructions to register our concern”

"I am also at a stage in life where I would prefer to do something more rewarding with my time, than peddle half-truths on behalf of a government I do not trust," she wrote in the letter.

Ah, sure who needs top diplomats to do trade deals anyway? Twitter's just as good a negotiating platform, innit? :rolleyes:




Damn: the mod beat me to it!

Joe_ Public

robindch wrote: »

Alexandra Hall-Hall, the UK's lead Brexit envoy in Washington, has cashed in her chips with some energy:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/06/uk/top-british-diplomat-quits-brexit-intl/index.html

A lot of echoes with the resignation of Ivan Rogers a couple of years back. Heartening to see there are people left whose integrity and patriotism override their naked self interest but there should be more of them.

Spanish Eyes

Hugh Grant backs Dominic Grieve. Not Dominic Cummings.

https://twitter.com/DominicGrieve1/status/1202699893627916288

J Mysterio

Alexandra Hall-Hall? Won't one do? :rolleyes:

quokula

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191341879599734784?s=19

If you see anyone claiming they know what the outcome of this election will be just show them them above tweet

This came from a telephone poll conducted on behalf of the Liberal Democrats with sample size 406. Total responses per party were LD: 77, Con: 88, Lab: 71, which came to a total of the headline percentages after the polling company weighted them by likelihood to vote.

The poll also asked who they voted for in 2017 (LD: 72, Con: 104, Labour: 85) and how they voted in the referendum (147 Leave, 172 Remain)

In other words it was an unrepresentative poll in a constituency that actually had a higher Leave vote, and actually voted with a Labour majority in 2017, just ahead of the Conservatives with the Lib Dems way down on less than half the Labour vote.

It's precisely the kind of misleading poll the Lib Dems have been commissioning in many constituencies to put on their campaign material and muddy the water of tactical voting, which is likely to ultimately help the Tories.

All the data is here: https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/04114939/Portsmouth-South-Tables-for-Website.xlsx

All the tactical voting websites still say Labour are the best bet: https://dontsplittheremainvote.com/constituency/portsmouth-south.html



Edit: oops I accidentally quoted an old post, didn't realise I wasn't on the latest page. Or that this is the brexit thread not the GE one

RobMc59

I'm very much against brexit but am confused as to why the pound appears to be soaring against the euro-has anyone any idea why this is?

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm very much against brexit but am confused as to why the pound appears to be soaring against the euro-has anyone any idea why this is?

A comfortable Tory majority will bring stability. For a while.

quokula

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm very much against brexit but am confused as to why the pound appears to be soaring against the euro-has anyone any idea why this is?

Soaring is a bit of an exaggeration. It’s 2c up on where it was before the drop when Boris took power - it basically dropped a lot on the threat of no deal then picked up again to the probably-a-deal status quo.

It’s still 20c down on where it was before the referendum was called.

Leroy42

I thought it was very telling at the leaders debate that Johnson attempted to put forward the benefits that will come as a result of 'Getting Brexit Done'.

Stopping the export of live animals seems to high on the agenda. I am not aware of the size of that industry in the UK, but regardless there are going to be job losses and company closures over such a policy. It also calls into question, whether Ireland can use the landbridge to transport live animals.

2nd was a reduction in VAT on tampons. Couldn't the government have put in place cos controls of medical allowances to take account of this burden before now?

And then of course the control of laws, money before the inevitable immigration line.

So after 3 years of Brexit, after the WA has been agreed, for a second time, this is the best Johnson can come up with? Live animals and tampons? Is that really was has gotten half of the UK for excited for the last few years? Is that why they have attacked the judiciary, the HoL, MP's, media, remoaners.

Unfortunately for the UK, in Corbyn the Labour poarty has a leader totally incapable of holding Johnson to account. All JC had to do was ask was that it? 6bn, and rising, in No deal prep costs, 100m in Brexit ready advertising campaign for 31 Oct, massive stop in investment. And for what?

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

So after 3 years of Brexit, after the WA has been agreed, for a second time, this is the best Johnson can come up with? Live animals and tampons?

The Tampon Tax is one of Johnson's nonsense pledges. The EU has already taken steps to correct that anomaly, and the European Parliament in January of this year called on all member states to follow Ireland's (and Malta's) lead in zero-rating them. (Link)

Leroy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

The Tampon Tax is one of Johnson's nonsense pledges. The EU has already taken steps to correct that anomaly, and the European Parliament in January of this year called on all member states to follow Ireland's (and Malta's) lead in zero-rating them. (Link)

Yes I know that.

The point was that after all the messing, the ref, the votes in HoC, this is the best justification he has.

We have gone through many pages trying to get posters to tell what they see as benefits and Live Animal transport and reduction in VAT on tampons has never been raised!

And that's it, from Mr Brexit himself. That is what all this wasted time, and 6bn+ money has been about.

And why the UK is about to reelect the government that caused all this in the first place.

Live animal transport and cheaper tampons.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm very much against brexit but am confused as to why the pound appears to be soaring against the euro-has anyone any idea why this is?

They're assuming that the UK leaving on Jan 31 with a WA will 'settle down' things, but it seems rather short sighted.....Brexit UK being led by a loose cannon like Johnson & chums hardly seems like a recipe for stability.

quokula

CelticRambler wrote: »

The Tampon Tax is one of Johnson's nonsense pledges. The EU has already taken steps to correct that anomaly, and the European Parliament in January of this year called on all member states to follow Ireland's (and Malta's) lead in zero-rating them. (Link)

I wasn’t aware that that had been corrected. It really ought to be the BBC’s job to spend 10 minutes at the end of the debate going through all the verifiably false claims each candidate made rather than proclaiming Johnson ‘won’ by lying convincingly.

CelticRambler

quokula wrote: »

I wasn’t aware that that had been corrected. It really ought to be the BBC’s job to spend 10 minutes at the end of the debate going through all the verifiably false claims each candidate made rather than proclaiming Johnson ‘won’ by lying convincingly.

But that's Brexit in a nutshell: everything bad that's been attributed to the Big Bad EU, for which there's even a half-decent justification, affects the equivalent demographic right across the Union. Anyone who feels sufficiently strongly about the supposed injustice of any piece of EU legislation can (and has the right to) propose a modification to the existing law. All they need are 999,999 like-minded individuals - arguably a lot easier to find in a population of 500m than 60m.

eire4

Strazdas wrote: »

They're assuming that the UK leaving on Jan 31 with a WA will 'settle down' things, but it seems rather short sighted.....Brexit UK being led by a loose cannon like Johnson & chums hardly seems like a recipe for stability.

I totally agree. Plus if they do leave in January I just not see how a trade agreement can be reached by the deadline at the end of the year so that really is still hanging out there as well. Even if they leave next month there is still a long road to go to put it mildly.

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote:

But that's Brexit in a nutshell: everything bad that's been attributed to the Big Bad EU, for which there's even a half-decent justification, affects the equivalent demographic right across the Union. Anyone who feels sufficiently strongly about the supposed injustice of any piece of EU legislation can (and has the right to) propose a modification to the existing law. All they need are 999,999 like-minded individuals - arguably a lot easier to find in a population of 500m than 60m.

You could argue that it's much easier to obtain the signatures for the citizens initiative in the UK than in say Ireland. It would be like a 50% of the electorate in Ireland whereas in the UK it's just a few %.
Of course if they bothered to find out what the EU was...

Enzokk

Johnson was on Sky News the weekend and his interview seemed to pose more questions than answers and Brexit will not be done for a long time.

Boris Johnson admits there will be some customs checks after Brexit

Boris Johnson has admitted there will be some customs checks for goods crossing the Irish Sea after Brexit but he insisted they would apply only to items destined for the Republic of Ireland.

So you are a company in Ireland and there is a component you need that is produced in the UK before you can sell your products to the EU market. If there are tariff differences between the EU and the UK, surely you just ship the item to an address in NI and avoid checks and seeing as there cannot be a border between NI and Ireland you drive across the border and pick your items.

Either NI is separate from the UK customs territory and checks needs to be done, or no checks are done between NI and the UK and there is a land border. I guess he is saying a trade deal will get rid of the need for checks, but in less than a year unless it is BRINO, no chance. Why is this liar allowed to get away with this crap?

quokula

Enzokk wrote: »

Johnson was on Sky News the weekend and his interview seemed to pose more questions than answers and Brexit will not be done for a long time.

Boris Johnson admits there will be some customs checks after Brexit



So you are a company in Ireland and there is a component you need that is produced in the UK before you can sell your products to the EU market. If there are tariff differences between the EU and the UK, surely you just ship the item to an address in NI and avoid checks and seeing as there cannot be a border between NI and Ireland you drive across the border and pick your items.

Either NI is separate from the UK customs territory and checks needs to be done, or no checks are done between NI and the UK and there is a land border. I guess he is saying a trade deal will get rid of the need for checks, but in less than a year unless it is BRINO, no chance. Why is this liar allowed to get away with this crap?

Because nobody in GB cares about NI, and it ceased to be of any importance the second the DUP lost the balance of power.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

Johnson was on Sky News the weekend and his interview seemed to pose more questions than answers and Brexit will not be done for a long time.

Boris Johnson admits there will be some customs checks after Brexit



So you are a company in Ireland and there is a component you need that is produced in the UK before you can sell your products to the EU market. If there are tariff differences between the EU and the UK, surely you just ship the item to an address in NI and avoid checks and seeing as there cannot be a border between NI and Ireland you drive across the border and pick your items.

Either NI is separate from the UK customs territory and checks needs to be done, or no checks are done between NI and the UK and there is a land border. I guess he is saying a trade deal will get rid of the need for checks, but in less than a year unless it is BRINO, no chance. Why is this liar allowed to get away with this crap?

And from an Irish POV, that is why the proposed WA is a disaster in the making IMO. It is nothing but a sop to the UK to try to help them onto the next stage, just like Phase 1 agreement was.

It is, IMO, totally unworkable. A border with no checks! Sure it might work for a while, and certainly the value of trade currently means the risk if fairly low, but in time things will happen, such as Foot and Mouth, for which we have no defence based on the WA. And it won't take long for other EU countries to block us from free access on the basis of the risks.

From everything that I have seen from the UK over the last 3 years, and particularly now, they have no intention of undertaking their responsibilities. They would happily leave the GB/NI completely unchecked on the basis of it being politically difficult to do anything different and then the border falls to us.

They have, if we are honest, done a pretty good job of shifting the burden of responsibility from them onto us.

sandbelter

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm very much against brexit but am confused as to why the pound appears to be soaring against the euro-has anyone any idea why this is?

Concern Germany is sliding into recession, Italian government bond rates higher than Greek bond rates, France showing no sign of economic reform are the usual reasons I see attributed to the Euro's fall for the last two years, it's just more a case that GBP is now levelling off and the EUR continues to slowly fall. On the continent life goes on.

There a chance come Feb we'll have a relatively strong GBP and tariffs which will be hell for the UK economy....everyone's assumed that GBP would fall as a shock absorber if there was a no deal.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

Johnson was on Sky News the weekend and his interview seemed to pose more questions than answers and Brexit will not be done for a long time.

I caught the re-run of that, and was ... impressed? :rolleyes: ... by Johnson's total disconnection from reality, particularly in relation to his new immigration controls, and specifically the examples he gave regarding the "open door" for extremely talented people - first violins, prima ballerinas and top scientists. These are all professions whose interest in moving to the UK will be severely curtailed by Brexit, as being UK-based will cut them off from EU funding and (in the case of the artists) the freedom to perform in the EU, hassle-free.

A "first violinist" for example, will not be able to take their violin from London to Paris without first filling in a customs declaration for the violin, for the bow, for the rosin, for the case, for their practice violin, for their replacement bow ... and that's in addition to having to get a "right to perform visa" for every concert. This is the very reason the European Youth Orchestra relocated out of the UK last year. [Not sure if it was on here or a different forum that I read the remarks of an English drummer old enough to remember the 'good old days' when he had to show, declare and count every single drumstick at customs when he travelled to "the Continent"]

And he managed to regurgitate Eskimo's nonsense about the EU forcing the UK to allow 500m Europeans invade Britain. We know he doesn't do "detail" but surely a Prime Minister so obsessed with immigration should know that the Europeans have been leaving, not arriving. Unless, of course, he was being deliberately disingenuous ... :P

Tell me how

I'm convinced both Katya Adler and Laura Keunsberg had a moment over the last several months where they thought about their job, how they wanted to do it, and how they wanted to be perceived. And they choose different paths.

Here is Katya.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1203975926838710272?s=19

Leroy42

Certainly Katya has moved to a more fact based reporting, even on Brexitcast she has been the one that has tried, mostly in vain, to bring a sense of reality to the conversation. However, she spent far too long going along with the line that the EU always do 11th hour deal. That thread above shows that at least she is aware that whilst it is clearly being sold as an 11th hour deal which Johnson achieved, it was only achieved by the EU getting what it wanted.

In terms LK, I am actually coming around to the thinking that she isn't actively trying to be biased, but she just isn't actually very good at her job. Clearly she has access to high up people, mainly in the Tories it would appear, and she genuinely, I think, reports what she is being told as news. But she consistently fails to actually critically review the information she is given. I know people think she is always trying to point back at Labour or Corbyn, but I actually think she does think that everything is equal. She doesn't appear to have the ability to see that there are differences in the seriousness of different things.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Certainly Katya has moved to a more fact based reporting, even on Brexitcast she has been the one that has tried, mostly in vain, to bring a sense of reality to the conversation. However, she spent far too long going along with the line that the EU always do 11th hour deal. That thread above shows that at least she is aware that whilst it is clearly being sold as an 11th hour deal which Johnson achieved, it was only achieved by the EU getting what it wanted.

In terms LK, I am actually coming around to the thinking that she isn't actively trying to be biased, but she just isn't actually very good at her job. Clearly she has access to high up people, mainly in the Tories it would appear, and she genuinely, I think, reports what she is being told as news. But she consistently fails to actually critically review the information she is given. I know people think she is always trying to point back at Labour or Corbyn, but I actually think she does think that everything is equal. She doesn't appear to have the ability to see that there are differences in the seriousness of different things.

Yeah, I posted here (on Brexit threads) many times about Katya and 'the EU will bend' narrative and that is what I mean about there seemingly having been some moment of reckoning because I find quite a difference in her reporting and on Brexitcast.

LK, I'm disappointed, as a number of years ago, I was impressed by her.
I understand what you are saying about maybe she is just not good at her job. I don't think anyone could fight her corner in suggesting she is good at critical analysis at this point but I also think there is a bias there which, if it is unintentional is nearly even worse for someone in such a role at such an organisation.
Her opening tweet this morning was about only 3 days left and Swinson still wriggling over revoke. Nothing about Johnson yet to face Andrew Neil (her colleague) or serious scrutiny. Her tweets are getting seriously 'ratioed' now in terms of comments vs likes/retweets and I think her position has been severely undermined.