Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Thargor

Looks like the people of Scotland have made their intentions clear aswell, possible end of the UK there.

You couldnt ask for a better Tory lineup to face the humiliations to come when they leave and try to turn all the unicorn promises into reality, Johnson is despised in Brussels. Id say after 5 more years of listening to them lying through their teeth and refusing to answer basic questions people will be well sick of them.

Lib Dems nearly wiped out.

sondagefaux

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You say that but the reality is Brexit is happening and you have nothing positive to say just personal jibes.

The EU one way or another is a wounded, diminished entity and I know that hurts deep for some.

If your attitude prevails then they will have learned absolutely nothing from this and they will try business as usual taking more and more sovereignty (which I believe will ultimately end in tears).

We need reform and it takes big events like Brexit to drive reform.

Do you enjoy your freedom of movement within the EU?

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You say that but the reality is Brexit is happening and you have nothing positive to say just personal jibes.

The EU one way or another is a wounded, diminished entity and I know that hurts deep for some.

If your attitude prevails then they will have learned absolutely nothing from this and they will try business as usual taking more and more sovereignty (which I believe will ultimately end in tears).

We need reform and it takes big events like Brexit to drive reform.

You've no reason to hate the EU. None , zero zilch.


It's blatantly obvious you dwell on far right nonsense sites and Facebook areas where you subscribe to idiocy theories.


It's funny you never seem to give out about the free education you got here..the free healthcare . The motorway system and numerous other world-class things we enjoy none of which we would have without our EU membership. Your a cad and an obvious one.


Would absolutely love for folks like yourself to live by their words and go live outside the EU. Let's say Moscow for example knock yourself out . Come back and tell us how awesome it's is being out under the thumb of the oppression you have in Ireland.


Laughable from start to finish.

Thargor

listermint wrote: »

You've no reason to hate the EU. None , zero zilch.


It's blatantly obvious you dwell on far right nonsense sites and Facebook areas where you subscribe to idiocy theories.


It's funny you never seem to give out about the free education you got here..the free healthcare . The motorway system and numerous other world-class things we enjoy none of which we would have without our EU membership. Your a cad and an obvious one.


Would absolutely love for folks like yourself to live by their words and go live outside the EU. Let's say Moscow for example knock yourself out . Come back and tell us how awesome it's is being out under the thumb of the oppression you have in Ireland.


Laughable from start to finish.

Or even give Ireland a go without EU investment and oversight, do people like him just have no memory? Can they not even watch Reeling in the Years and see the level of sh1t this country was in before the EU?

screamer

Well the turkeys vote for Christmas.... time to start stock piling, and Arlene, you’re outta there. Watch how quickly their Union will be consciously uncoupled. Scotland too, Brexit will see the breakup of the United Kingdom. But, that’s the will of the people and I think they will regret every bit of it in years to come.

Enzokk

At least we can get the ball rolling now. The Tories will own Brexit and the consequences if the exit poll is accurate and it will end up one of two ways,

1. They make a success of Brexit and Johnson is able to fund his extra 34 hospitals and not have to open up the NHS for a trade deal to the US.

2. Reality bites after they have left the EU officially when they are treated as a third country instead of as a member and the promises is broken one by one and Brexit isn't done like he said it would. Chaos could be the word for the next few years as Scotland starts getting agitated to leave the UK and in turn the cities that voted remain start agitating as well.

We will have to see, but for Labour Corbyn has to go. They took a chance with him but depending on the result they have shot themselves and their voters in the head by not even contemplating a deal with Remain parties. They got greedy with the thought of Corbyn as PM and for all of their talk about fir the many it turned out to be for Labour only.

It will be interesting to see the results and I guess only then will we be able to have more clarity of what happened.

Headshot

Hopefully its the end of Corbyn

sondagefaux

Headshot wrote: »

Hopefully its the end of Corbyn

If the seat projections are accurate, he'll have led Labour to a worse result than Michael Foot in 1983, which is some going.

maebee

This was a Brexit election and (it appears) the Brexiteers have won. We Europeans now need to let them go. They don't want to be part of us so we should shun them as they have shunned us. Let them deal with the rest of the world. The EU should not help them in any way, imo.

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

Looks like the people of Scotland have made their intentions clear aswell, possible end of the UK there.

Safe to say that the SNP will be as much a distraction in the HoC as UKIP/Brexit party have been to the European parliament over the past few years.

irishproduce

Anyone know why the people carrying the boxes in the count centre run with them? Watching sky news and young ones picking up boxes and running to each station...what's that about? Why not walk?

For Forks Sake

irishproduce wrote: »

Anyone know why the people carrying the boxes in the ciunt centre run with them? Watching sky news and young ones picking up boxes and running to each station...what's that about? Why not walk?

Traditional rivalry between Sunderland and Newcastle to have the first declared result.

Gerry T

maebee wrote:

This was a Brexit election and (it appears) the Brexiteers have won. We Europeans now need to let them go. They don't want to be part of us so we should shun them as they have shunned us. Let them deal with the rest of the world. The EU should not help them in any way, imo.

A part of me would like to see the uk go through the crapper so uk people get to see the reality of brexit, but then that would be also bad for IRL and the EU. A more business or sensible approach would be a brexit deal where the EU maximises its access into the UK markets and securing rights for EU nationals living in the UK whilst not giving away to much. That's just good business sense, pointless not trading and having a very health relationship with a close neighbour.

AllGunsBlazing

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Traditional rivalry between Sunderland and Newcastle to have the first declared result.

That's actually a little depressing.

Limpy

maebee wrote: »

This was a Brexit election and (it appears) the Brexiteers have won. We Europeans now need to let them go. They don't want to be part of us so we should shun them as they have shunned us. Let them deal with the rest of the world. The EU should not help them in any way, imo.

The UK will still be part of Europe unless they float to another continent.

BloodBath

Limpy wrote: »

The UK will still be part of Europe unless they float to another continent.

We can only dream.

Bit cynical

irishproduce wrote: »

If the conservatives get a large majority. I think it shows that those in parliament who conspired to slow it and stop were in fact acting against the will of the people all along.

I think the underlying mindset of the UK Remainers was one of denial. They never really believed that people voted to leave in 2016. The consequence of this is that their actions after that point were not merely ineffectual but actually counter-productive. By stifling Theresa May's efforts they helped Johnson into power and a more Brexiteer deal.

What they should have done was accepted the result in 2016 and worked for a mild brexit.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think the underlying mindset of the UK Remainers was one of denial. They never really believed that people voted to leave in 2016. The consequence of this is that their actions after that point were not merely ineffectual but actually counter-productive. By stifling Theresa May's efforts they helped Johnson into power and a more Brexiteer deal.

What they should have done was accepted the result in 2016 and worked for a mild brexit.

The ERG voted against Johnson's deal! Have you forgotten IDS, Francois, Bridgen, Cash, Redwood etc?

Can Johnson end the extension early now so the trade talks can begin? I seem to remember that being a possibility.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

The ERG voted against Johnson's deal! Have you forgotten IDS, Francois, Bridgen, Cash, Redwood etc?

Very true, but these were working in their own interest. A much larger group came from Labour and the Lib Dems and there were also remainers among the Tories. It is this latter group that acted seemingly against their stated interest.

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

Can Johnson end the extension early now so the trade talks can begin? I seem to remember that being a possibility.

If he wants no-deal he could do it. He can repeal anything now and with a new speaker likely not to challenge his authority early I think no-deal could happen. Most likely is he rams through his deal and the WAB now but will have to wait for ratification from the EU. If that is all done before the 31st January then the extension will end early.

From the results it seems like the percentages are likely the same as the referendum, maybe a few points change here or there from 2017. From a Remain point of view it is clear this is the fault of Labour and Corbyn, he is toxic, but also because Swinson and Labour couldn't play nice. There will be many seats where they could have easily won had they just not lost their heads. But because both sides were more intent on attacking each other they let a Tory in when they has a bigger vote share between them, examples being Warrington South. Labour candidate lost by 2000 votes and the Lib Dem candidate had 5000 votes. Result? Remain basically had 52-48% of the votes but Conservative gain.

So I guess at the end it will be close to 50-50 on Brexit, but like FPTP the winner takes all.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Very true, but these were working in their own interest. A much larger group came from Labour and the Lib Dems and there were also remainers among the Tories. It is this latter group that acted seemingly against their stated interest.

Surely remainers were also working in their own interets.

The fact remains. If leavers had wanted to leave then remainers could not have stopped them in parliment. It is down to leavers that the UK has remained in the EU this long.

Bit cynical

Christy42 wrote: »

Surely remainers were also working in their own interets.

Well that is the point I was making earlier. The effect of their actions worked against their own interests paving the way for a harder brexit than would otherwise have been thee case.

54and56

54and56 wrote: »

My tuppence worth (which I'd better bookmark and come back to on Dec 13th) is that the UK is more polarised than ever and we're going to see that in the GE result.

Tories - Wipe-out more or less in Scotland and in remain leaning seats in the south but will pick up Leave voting labour seats in the north unless the Brexit party spoil the Leave vote in those seats.

Labour - Have managed to tie themselves in knots over Brexit. Corbyn is toxic and going all in on policies like banning private schools is waaaayyyy to communist to attract the middle of the road voters they need. Corbyn is a modern day Michael Foot in terms of electoral appeal. He may have principled positions but a GE is a glorified popularity contest where the key messages need to be succinct and populist. "Get Brexit Done" Vs "We're going to ask for another 6 month extension to negotiate yet another deal which we'll then put to the people in a confirmatory referendum but not necessarily support ourselves if we think staying in the EU would be better". Nice and snappy eh? Labour are going to get absolutely hammered and they know it. They've been dragged kicking and screaming to agree to an election and even their own MP's weren't very enthusiastic when Corbyn made his speech. The Tories and/or the Brexit party will snatch their northern Leave voting constituencies while the Lib Dems will hoover up many of the remain leaning and middle class left (but private school attending) southern seats.

Lib Dems - Will do well in remain leaning seats but Jo Swinson could lose her seat.

SNP - Ian Blackford has done a massive job putting Scotlands case forward day after day and put up with a tsunami of abuse from English Tory MP's over the last 12 months or more which won't be lost on Scottish voters. They could sweep the boards and get a result which would make it impossible for any new govt to ignore their demand for Indy Ref #2.

The Brexit Party - BoJo has reclaimed many of the "lost" Tories thus nipping the Brexit party in the bud. They'll probably snatch a few Labour leave seats where the Tory offer is weak and/or where Labour voters would never vote Tory but can somehow justify voting Brexit Party "just the once" so to speak.

DUP - Will do well to keep their 10 MP's. They were prepared to shaft NI economically to secure a pure ideological Brexit and strengthening of the Union by erecting north south barriers to trade thus weakening the connection to RoI but completely mis-judged BoJo and were made to look like the useful fools they are when he and his ERG mates including JRM unapologetically threw them under the bus or as Andrew Bridgen said it's not that the ERG threw them under the bus the DUP just didn't get on the ERG bus this time Ideally DUP would lose 2-3 MP's but when push comes to shove they have a fairly robust base who will forgive anything as they really can't bring themselves to vote for anything less than hardcore Unionism.

Overall?

Labour the big losers, Lib Dems and SNP the big winners. Tory gains from Labour cancelled out by losses to Lib Dems so more or less standstill, not enough for a majority.

Hung parliament with the Lib Dems under new leader Sir Ed Davey who becomes a king maker and refuses to back the WAB.

More parliamentary chaos ensues, another extension is sought for a referendum on the BoJo deal Vs remain.

Remain wins and this thread is finally closed.

So I got some of the key elements right but I hadn't anticipated the complete out manoeuvre of the Brexit party by the Tories and I also got the Lib Dem performance completely wrong albeit I got Jo Swinson losing her seat right.

Overall it's a good result for Ireland IMHO. A strong majority for BoJo means he won't be held hostage any more ny the DUP/ERG and if there is one thing BoJo has been consistent on it's taking the path of least resistance so he'll bring the WA back to the HoC ASAP and it'll pass with a big majority. No more uncertainty, the UK will be out of the EU in a few weeks without a border being imposed on the island of Ireland which is the main goal Ireland Inc had from the process. Yes there will still be uncertainty and economic decline as the FTA negotiation process drags on but the existential threat to the GFA is gone and IMHO BoJo won't think twice about sticking one to the DUP who have been holding the Tories over a barrel for several years. The fact Nigel Dodds got his comeuppance and there are now more nationalist MP's than Unionist in NI is a major milestone which won't be lost on anyone.

And of course to top it all, Farage and the Brexit Party are a complete busted flush

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

Can Johnson end the extension early now so the trade talks can begin? I seem to remember that being a possibility.

I think he can, yes, once the deal is ratified in Westminster. However I don't think it will happen since the date is not too far away now.

Firblog

Christy42 wrote: »

The fact remains. If leavers had wanted to leave then remainers could not have stopped them in parliment. It is down to leavers that the UK has remained in the EU this long.

I don't know how you can say that,.Many remainers voted against the deals May put in front of parliament , or would you claim that all those liberal and labour MPs who voted against those bills were leavers in disguise?

Christy42

Firblog wrote: »

I don't know how you can say that,.Many remainers voted against the deals May put in front of parliament , or would you claim that all those liberal and labour MPs who voted against those bills were leavers in disguise?

If the conservatives and dup voted for May's deal it would have passed. I don't see how you blame the opposition for the government's bill not passing. They had the numbers. It was people who wanted to leave who had the power.

stefanovich

Christy42 wrote: »

If the conservatives and dup voted for May's deal it would have passed. I don't see how you blame the opposition for the government's bill not passing. They had the numbers. It was people who wanted to leave who had the power.

This is the absolute best result. So glad May didn't pass her deal. It would have been more years of her ineptitude.

VinLieger

stefanovich wrote: »

This is the absolute best result. So glad May didn't pass her deal. It would have been more years of her ineptitude.

Its.the.exact.same.deal


https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204823113243996160

Bit cynical

Christy42 wrote: »

If the conservatives and dup voted for May's deal it would have passed. I don't see how you blame the opposition for the government's bill not passing. They had the numbers. It was people who wanted to leave who had the power.

Well there's such a concept as cross-party support in order to thwart the hard-line brexiteers. But that never happened because remainers never fully accepted the referendum result therefore their goal was to cancel brexit rather than tone it down.