Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

stefanovich

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just look at the current cabinet. These people have been given a vote of confidence and have been returned as MPs (Morgan - who didnt stand - aside). It is a list of Tories almost unparalleled in their ignorance, arrogance, ineptitude and nastiness.

PM: Boris Johnson

Foreign Affairs: Dominic Raab

Chancellor: Sajid Javid

Home Secretary: Priti Patel

Duchy of Lancaster: Michael Gove

Health: Matt Hancock

Business: Andrea Leadsom

Trade: Liz Truss

Education: Gavin Williamson

Environment, Rural Affairs: Theresa Villiers

Digital, Culture, Media, Sport: Nicky Morgan

Chairman: James Cleverly

They are all decent, intelligent and pragmatic. What's not to like?

CrabRevolution

RobMc59 wrote: »

I feel exactly the same but it's done and we all have to suck it up and get on with it whether we like it or not.

We are getting on with it, we've been getting on with it since Day 1. The problem the UK has with this is that we're looking after our interests first, not theirs.

To brexiters, "you need to get on with it" generally means the EU (and especially Ireland) submitting to the UKs demands .

briany

CrabRevolution wrote: »

We are getting on with it, we've been getting on with it since Day 1. The problem the UK has with this is that we're looking after our interests first, not theirs.

To brexiters, "you need to get on with it" generally means the EU (and especially Ireland) submitting to the UKs demands .

It's a troubling trait for UK politicians to have. What point would there be in inking a trade deal with the UK if the UK saw fit to renege on it whenever the terms become any way inconvenient to them? Certainly, if you're a country with an economy roughly the same size or smaller, this would have to be a large concern. Wouldn't matter so much to the US, as that would be a rather one-sided deal, and much more damaging for the UK to leave than for the US.

RobMc59

CrabRevolution wrote: »

We are getting on with it, we've been getting on with it since Day 1. The problem the UK has with this is that we're looking after our interests first, not theirs.

To brexiters, "you need to get on with it" generally means the EU (and especially Ireland) submitting to the UKs demands .

I`d just like to say I love everything about Ireland(except you don`t know how to make a cup of tea!)and as I`ve said,I would have preferred to remain but that ship has sailed-I distrust johnson but who knows?-he might be right!
Obviously Ireland/EU will be looking after their own interests first but the gloves are off now and I imagine however obnoxious johnson is,he and Britain will come out fighting their corner.
I can say in all honesty,I`ve never heard people here in England blaming Ireland for any of this,it`s generally the EU hierarchy that honour is reserved for,which is ridiculous as it`s the brexiteers own fault.

looksee

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`d just like to say I love everything about Ireland(except you don`t know how to make a cup of tea!)and as I`ve said,I would have preferred to remain but that ship has sailed-I distrust johnson but who knows?-he might be right!
Obviously Ireland/EU will be looking after their own interests first but the gloves are off now and I imagine however obnoxious johnson is,he and Britain will come out fighting their corner.
I can say in all honesty,I`ve never heard people here in England blaming Ireland for any of this,it`s generally the EU hierarchy that honour is reserved for,which is ridiculous as it`s the brexiteers own fault.

It could well have been selective journalism, but there was a phase when the general Brit population became aware of the role Ireland had in the whole debacle they were inclined to say stupid stuff that suggested Ireland should just fall in with them for their convenience.

X111111111111

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just look at the current cabinet. These people have been given a vote of confidence and have been returned as MPs (Morgan - who didnt stand - aside). It is a list of Tories almost unparalleled in their ignorance, arrogance, ineptitude and nastiness.

PM: Boris Johnson

Foreign Affairs: Dominic Raab

Chancellor: Sajid Javid

Home Secretary: Priti Patel

Duchy of Lancaster: Michael Gove

Health: Matt Hancock

Business: Andrea Leadsom

Trade: Liz Truss

Education: Gavin Williamson

Environment, Rural Affairs: Theresa Villiers

Digital, Culture, Media, Sport: Nicky Morgan

Chairman: James Cleverly

Very talented front bench tbh. Depressing when you look at the state of our own government here

brickster69

Looks like Trump is turning his attention towards the EU now.

Announced yesterday

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/13/business/new-tariffs-100-percent.html

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just look at the current cabinet. These people have been given a vote of confidence and have been returned as MPs (Morgan - who didnt stand - aside). It is a list of Tories almost unparalleled in their ignorance, arrogance, ineptitude and nastiness.

PM: Boris Johnson

Foreign Affairs: Dominic Raab

Chancellor: Sajid Javid

Home Secretary: Priti Patel

Duchy of Lancaster: Michael Gove

Health: Matt Hancock

Business: Andrea Leadsom

Trade: Liz Truss

Education: Gavin Williamson

Environment, Rural Affairs: Theresa Villiers

Digital, Culture, Media, Sport: Nicky Morgan

Chairman: James Cleverly

I would definitely accuse the "anyone but Corbyn" brigade in the north of England of short term thinking. They've just handed Johnson and this crowd a five year mandate. Even if things now become dire in the next 12 months, they have no way of replacing them.

RobMc59

brickster69 wrote: »

Looks like Trump is turning his attention towards the EU now.

Announced yesterday

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/13/business/new-tariffs-100-percent.html

Trump's days are numbered now he's going to be brought to justice over his 'bojoesque' like lying and cheating.

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

Trump's days are numbered now he's going to be brought to justice over his 'bojoesque' like lying and cheating.

Very unlikely, he will not be impeached by a majority republican senate, it will be at the next US election, anyway his pro-Brexit stance is still going to play a role in US politics over the next year or so.

greenfield21

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Very unlikely, he will not be impeached by a majority republican senate, it will be at the next US election, anyway his pro-Brexit stance is still going to play a role in US politics over the next year or so.

Trump going to lose?? What type of candidate do you think will beat him. To me it looks like anyone running on a leftist pitch may as well quit now. pro open borders, free trade they should just forget it. Trump stands a very good chance after this brexit vote even though most are saying there are no links between the two elections.

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump going to lose?? What type of candidate do you think will beat him. To me now it looks like anyone running on a leftist pitch may as well quit now. pro open borders, free trade they should just forget it. Trump stands a very good chance after this brexit vote even though most are saying there are no links between theses two elections.

Very unlikely to lose the next election, The point I was making is that he is unlikely to be impeached and forced out of office by the senate, only if he fails to get re-elected would he be out.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Very unlikely to lose the next election, The point I was making is that he is unlikely to be impeached and forced out of office by the senate, only if he fails to get re-elected would he be out.

Impeach refers to the trial in the Senate - if he is found guilty he will be removed from office and Pence takes his place.

If the House goes ahead, he will be impeached. Clinton was impeached but not found guilty.

brickster69

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump going to lose?? What type of candidate do you think will beat him. To me it looks like anyone running on a leftist pitch may as well quit now. pro open borders, free trade they should just forget it. Trump stands a very good chance after this brexit vote even though most are saying there are no links between the two elections.

Don't forget Boris, Nigel and Dom will give him a helping hand.

Doubt he can count on Tusk like.

https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP/status/1204400930583654405

brickster69

Or verhofstadt for that matter.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1205125302646644736

Infini

Sam Russell wrote: »

Impeach refers to the trial in the Senate - if he is found guilty he will be removed from office and Pence takes his place.

If the House goes ahead, he will be impeached. Clinton was impeached but not found guilty.

Unfortunately as much as it would be great to see Trumpy get his comeuppance the state of politics in the US and the fact that 2/3rds of senators need to vote to impeach means it's not likely he'll be removed unless something absolutely nasty comes along to shame the more moderate republicans into having the decency to remove him.

Likely the only way of getting rid of him will be the election in 2020 and if enough people can be convinced hes a liability to them not a help.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm actually much more worried about Britain's constitution than I am about Brexit. The argument that Johnson is devoid of ideology and lazy collapses here when he can just delegate to people who have rather repugnant views. I'm so grateful for the EU as the kind of damage that Priti Patel could wreak on Ireland without it would be horrific.

I'll be honest I'm expecting this conservative government to make a complete and utter bollocks of Brexit they'll bítch and moan about things but the truth is they'll find themselves completely and utterly outclassed, outmaneuvered and outmatched by a far more powerful EU, they'll ignore Scotland and NI for as long as they can but their performance will likely only polarise and antagonise the populations of both regions until they finally break off. Sturgeon has won back her overwhelming majority she isnt going to sit by and wait she'll hammer them until they're forced to give in and have a 2nd Indyref and it will likely happen once the full effects and damage of Brexit happens to give her the best chance of success.

McGiver

J Mysterio wrote:

Toxic nationalism (arrogance, exceptionalism) and a society sick with a corrupt media unfettered by serious regulation, promoting hate and division to further the interest of a priviliged few.

And today's Daily Mail...

Brussels hatches plot to KEEP the UK under EU control past 2020 with Eurocrats claiming more time is needed to strike a new trade deal

The lies, vitriol and propaganda won't stop. It will escalate.

Water John

That poor inept list of Cabinet members will be totally preoccupied in trying to get Brexit signed off by the end of 2020. All other issues will take a back seat. Scotland and NI and Northern UK will be ignored.

Enzokk

I cannot believe Corbyn is arrogant not to have resigned. The mistake will be amplified at the next PMQ's when Johnson stands there and openly mocks Corbyn for losing seats and lies his way through the questions. Corbyn will surely bring up the NHS and Johnson will lie about 40 new hospitals and how the people didn't trust Corbyn otherwise he wouldn't have lost seats or votes.

I think most people will say Corbyn is a decent human being, with his faults, but the humiliation he will let himself and his party in for will be terrible to see.

As for Johnson, I suspect if he doesn't release the Russian report it will end up at a newspaper before long. That and his investigation for taking his bed buddy along for a trip will come out as well. This will all be happening with Brexit being 'Done' but the negotiations continuing. The acid test for him will be what he gives up during the trade talks. Will he as many suspect go soft, or is he set on a US trade deal?

We will get our first idea on Monday when he chooses his next cabinet.

As for Cummings, you know how he accuses Remainers of not being able to let the result go? Guess who would have contested the result if it was close and he lost?

Dominic Cummings: If Leave had lost Brexit vote, I’d have queried result as invalid

Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings would have challenged the EU referendum result as “invalid” had Vote Leave lost the Brexit campaign.

According to documents seen by the Observer, the prime minister’s chief aide told the UK’s data watchdog that he would have contested the result because UK elections are “wide open to abuse.”

In an email sent in 2017 to the information commissioner’s office, Cummings, the former head of the Vote Leave campaign and architect of Johnson’s stunning election victory, said: “If we had lost by a small margin I would have sought to challenge the result as invalid.”

So the UK elections are open to abuse and he was in charge of an organization that flaunted those rules and nothing has changed. But get Brexit done.

McGiver

RobMc59 wrote:

... but the gloves are off now and I imagine however obnoxious johnson is,he and Britain will come out fighting their corner.

And that's exactly what Putin wants. Divided Europe, quarrelling, nations fighting each other, like in the old days. So that they can play us like pawns. This of course course aligns with the American interest too, especially under current regime. And it plays well for the ascending Chinese as well ("When two are fighting, the third wins/rejoices" - central European proverb).

Note: when we say "Putin", it's not the person himself, it's the Russian political elite, imperialist and ruthless at its core - the Tzars, the Communists, the Oligarch Capitalists are just manifestations of the same Russian political elite - ideology changes through time but their objectives and methods remain the same.

For Forks Sake

McGiver wrote: »

And today's Daily Mail...



The lies, vitriol and propaganda won't stop. It will escalate.

Are the UK the only EU member to have an entire page on the commission website solely devoted to debunking 25 years worth of lies propagated by their media and politicians?

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/

PopePalpatine

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Are the UK the only EU member to have an entire page on the commission website solely devoted to debunking 25 years worth of lies propagated by their media and politicians?

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/

Maybe they have difficulty finding Hungarian and Polish web devs.

Mr.Nice Guy

With regards to the likely confrontation coming up in 2020 between Brexiters about extending the transition, I see the Irish-American lobby having an important role to play. The likes of Brendan Boyle have made it clear they will do all they can to protect the GFA, and it will be important for our government to make the case to friendly ears in the US and suggest that a transition extension could be useful.

Who knows Johnson's thought process but I reckon there's a chance he may use the Presidential election late next year as a justification for an extension. Obama warned years ago that Britain could find itself 'at the back of the queue' over Brexit, and Johnson may well remind his party about that and tell them that he needs to have certainty over Trump being in the White House before finalising any deal. Whether the ERG would except that I don't know. I don't see how it makes sense for the UK to leave the transition on the scheduled date given there is a chance - albeit perhaps not the most likely - that Trump may lose the election.

And if Johnson doesn't care about Britain aligning itself closely to the EU (his decision to support Brexit in the first place was motivated by self-interest let's not forget) then might it be in his interest for Trump to lose in 2020, and use that as a pretext for moving the final vision of Brexit away from the US sphere of influence?

And here's a wild thought, if the Democrats take the White House and show themselves to be less keen on a speedy trade deal than Trump was, does that give Johnson the excuse to pivot more towards the EU's orbit, and in so doing find a way to lessen the checks on the sea? Perhaps revive May's customs partnership idea?

At the time this was criticized as Brexit in name only but if you're a PM who is only interested in Brexit for self-gain only then what concern is that to you - particularly if such a scenario stands to lessen the damage on the economy?

Strazdas

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Maybe they have difficulty finding Hungarian and Polish web devs.

The Hungarian media are as corrupt, debased and full of lies as the British one but spend most of their time bigging up Viktor Orban rather than attacking the EU.

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

The Hungarian media are as corrupt, debased and full of lies as the British one but spend most of their time bigging up Viktor Orban rather than attacking the EU.

And attacking it's local politicans who actually has the audacity to disagree of Victor's policy of putting cronies in departments to steal money etc. And if they run out of that stuff there's always the attacks on immigrants and gypsies who're coming to ruin the Hungarian culture and spirit by the gazillions who're only held by back the brave knight sir Victor Orban.

LuckyLloyd

If they want to crash out at the end of 2020, let them. Their commitments to NI will be inked as an international treaty as part of the Withdrawal agreement. Good luck.

Igotadose

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

And here's a wild thought, if the Democrats take the White House and show themselves to be less keen on a speedy trade deal than Trump was, does that give Johnson the excuse to pivot more towards the EU's orbit, and in so doing find a way to lessen the checks on the sea? Perhaps revive May's customs partnership idea?

I think there's a good chance, better than 50%, that the Democrats get all 3 houses after the 2020 elections, independent of whatever happens this upcoming week in the US. That's a discussion for a different thread, however. As far as a deal with the US, the US isn't equipped for it (State Department's been gutted by Trump and his useful idiots Tillerson and Pompeo.) So, this kind of massively complex negotiation will take years. And then need to be ratified by the US Congress. The "USMCA," the lightweight NAFTA replacement, has taken 3 years and isn't quite done yet, and that's nothing compared to how complex a US/UK treaty will be.

Plus, if I were the UK public, I'd be concerned that HMG lacks the talent at the high levels to handle such a negotiation. Dominic Raab? As Bercow said, "Are those pigs flying in front of you I see?" The US will rush to cheat the UK if the UK go into this with 'must sign fast!' they're doomed.

CelticRambler

Igotadose wrote: »

Plus, if I were the UK public, I'd be concerned that HMG lacks the talent at the high levels to handle such a negotiation.

I this week's events show that being concerned about political talent is not something that concerns the UK public very much. Migrants and Marxism - they're the only things that need to be handled ...

McGiver

For Forks Sake wrote:

Are the UK the only EU member to have an entire page on the commission website solely devoted to debunking 25 years worth of lies propagated by their media and politicians?

Yes, that's correct. Shows how "exceptional" the UK is.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK as we know it is done for imo but the new version that emerges could potentially be an even more destabilising toxic place,more akin to putin`s russia.

Done for, yes, but I don't think there's much chance of the UK becoming a Russia on the Western Front, for two reasons: (1) there's no politician in the UK at this time that shows anything like the Machiavellian skill of Putin - just look at how miserably the motley crew in charge failed to extract a single concession from the EU in three years of friendly negotiations; and (2) in all likelihood, there will be no UK to speak of in a relatively short time.

Despite the Brexiter's bragging about Britain being the 5th largest economy in the world (a not entirely accurate description) and bursting with enormous potential for growth, the harsh reality is that Britain's place in the world - economically and politically - is already on the decline.

[John Casson – who worked in No 10 from 2010 to 2014 before becoming UK ambassador to Cairo until last year – ] attributed the decline in UK foreign policy influence to a range of factors including the absence of the US holding the ring for its allies, the distraction of Brexit, the shift to a multi-polar world, but also the absence of any confidence in the British political system about what the UK can offer to help the shape the world.

Unless Johnson does a very quick, very BRINO deal, and does indeed "get Brexit done" by the end of next year in a way that leaves Scunthorpe Man feeling nothing has changed, the UK will spend half a decade being an unpredictable partner best avoided. India and Italy will continue their upward trajectories on the economic scale, ousting the UK to 6th, 7th, maybe 8th place or lower (I can see Poland making a bid for the Top 10 by the end of the decade). It's going to be harder and harder for Johnson's new government to build his hospitals and revitalise the regions when competing for FDI against more savvy players who have really great FTAs already in place.

Against that background, the distance between London and Scotland and NI will become greater and greater, until they break off. Whatever cash is saved by not having to subsidise the Celts to the north will be quickly spent shoring up what's left of the still xenophobic, still deeply fractured England. Who'll want to invest in Serbia-on-Thames?