Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

If the Tories, thought that a second referendum would vote leave, they'd back it.
All moot now as the Tories won.

Indeed. It's just a matter of how hard a Brexit they will push through now.

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

What, even the Irish trust Boris now :eek:

Nobody trusts Johnson. But if you look at the past actions as a predictor for the future, well then Johnson went with a deal he himself ridiculed and said no PM will ever accept because it is a blow to the Union and actually doesn't take a lot of EU compromise, unlike the all UK Customs Union.

I just made the statement the EU will rather deal with someone who didn't understand what he agreed to than, say, Ollie Robbins.

As for the percentages of Leave and Remain, it is undoubtedly true that not all Labour voters are remainers, but at the same time not all Tory voters are leavers. So we can only look at the parties and assess their Brexit stance and when you look at that only about 48% if the votes went for Leave Parties.

Enzokk

As for the future trade talks, Johnson already mentioned those red lines same as May, taking control of their borders and laws and trade. That is a hard Brexit after they have left and somehow they think it will be done by 2020.

Michael Gove promises Brexit trade deal with EU by end of 2020

Michael Gove has categorically promised the UK will have a trade deal with the EU by the end of next year, despite deep reservations in Brussels about whether this is possible.

The senior minister became the first in Boris Johnson’s cabinet to repeat that pledge after the election, saying transitional arrangements would definitely stop at the end of December 2020.

He said discussions on the UK’s future relationship with the EU “will be concluded next year”.

Bit cynical

Enzokk wrote: »

As for the future trade talks, Johnson already mentioned those red lines same as May, taking control of their borders and laws and trade. That is a hard Brexit after they have left and somehow they think it will be done by 2020.

Well an extension can always be arranged if talks haven't completed by then.

Kermit.de.frog

I personally think Johnson will shift to a much softer Brexit with the mandate he has.

I also don't see Johnson as a hard brexiteer any way.

He'll want a good deal with Europe and I believe will sacrifice the ability to do trade deals by remaining in the CU and SM in the end.

He will lose the ERG but he does not need them.

woohoo!!!

This time next year there'll be drama over an extension. The UK is unreliable and untrustworthy. It left cos it likes calling the shots and has never stuck to an agreement that didn't favour it. Perfidious Albion indeed.

listermint

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well an extension can always be arranged if talks haven't completed by then.

The EU are already past end game for extensions tbh. This stuffs gone past it's sell by date.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I personally think Johnson will shift to a much softer Brexit with the mandate he has.

I also don't see Johnson as a hard brexiteer any way.

He'll want a good deal with Europe and I believe will sacrifice the ability to do trade deals by remaining in the CU and SM in the end.

He will lose the ERG but he does not need them.

You've obviously never met his father. He's a cut out of him. They'll do anything that makes them look like heroes down the gentlemen's club over whiskey.

Trying to put sensible and Johnson together is oil and water.

Bit cynical

listermint wrote: »

The EU are already past end game for extensions tbh. This stuffs gone past it's sell by date.

Doubt that to be honest given that during the WA negotiations now concluded, reminders that extensions were possible came mainly from the EU side.

But regardless the EU are free to request an extension if trade negotiations are not likely to conclude by the end of the TP.

Eric Cartman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If the Tories, thought that a second referendum would vote leave, they'd back it.
All moot now as the Tories won.

And the only reason the lib dems and some of labour wanted a second vote was they thought it would vote remain , lets be honest nobody was flogging that horse with an intention of respecting or expecting the outcome they didnt want

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

As for the future trade talks, Johnson already mentioned those red lines same as May, taking control of their borders and laws and trade. That is a hard Brexit after they have left and somehow they think it will be done by 2020.

Deal by end of 2020 (and by deal I mean completely wrapped up and signed; not some "well we agree on the broad strokes of a deal") comes only in one version; full agreement to what ever EU proposes. Hold on screams our Brexiteers; We can leave on WTO terms! Yes; but the question was that a DEAL was to be struck; by definition WTO terms is not a deal (and I'll not bother to go in on the long laundry list of issues coming with that idea from airspace, airplane control, animal export, nuclear material import etc. that are not solved by WTO terms).

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

Deal by end of 2020 (and by deal I mean completely wrapped up and signed; not some "we'll we agree on the broad strokes of a deal") comes only in one version; full agreement to what ever EU proposes. Hold on screams our Brexiteers; We can leave on WTO terms! Yes; but the question was that a DEAL was to be struck; by definition WTO terms is not a deal (and I'll not bother to go in on the long laundry list of issues coming with that idea from airspace, airplane control, animal export, nuclear material import etc. that are not solved by WTO terms).

The amazing thing is we don't have a clue which way he is going to go. That is why his ministers should be revealing. I saw a tweet that Gove may be set for a advanced role in the negotiations, and if that happens it doesn't shout close relationship.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1206522044717776896?s=20

It seems according to the tweet Johnson will sacrifice content for time, to avoid the deadline. So either a close relationship, BRINO, or good luck farmers finding a new way to support yourself.

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

It seems according to the tweet Johnson will sacrifice content for time, to avoid the deadline. So either a close relationship, BRINO, or good luck farmers finding a new way to support yourself.

Funny thing is EU don't have a tight deadline to get this deal done and hence all Boris has done is set himself up with a big weakness (done by end of 2020) and all EU has to do is lean back and say "We'll do this or we'll need to investigate this further which will take us another year at least".

Mezcita

Nody wrote: »

Funny thing is EU don't have a tight deadline to get this deal done and hence all Boris has done is set himself up with a big weakness (done by end of 2020) and all EU has to do is lean back and say "We'll do this or we'll need to investigate this further which will take us another year at least".

Ah the same time though all Johnson needs to do is ramp up the spin machine to put the blame back on the EU for any delay.

If anything the election has shown that a huge number of people in the UK are more malleable than Play-Doh when it comes to Brexit. They will no doubt celebrate when the UK 'leaves' at the end of January. But won't begin to question things until their daily lives are affected. Living here I've got zero sympathy for them at this stage. Let them roll the dice and see what happens.

farmchoice

johnson has got his majority but the WA isn't passed yet. he needs to keep looking like the brexit hard man until he gets the WA passed.
the ERG are made up of a hardcore of anti eu fanatics who have been voting against their own leadership for years, they will do it again at the drop of a hat so Johnson has to keep pandering to them at the very least until the WA is over the line.

Bit cynical

farmchoice wrote: »

johnson has got his majority but the WA isn't passed yet. he needs to keep looking like the brexit hard man until he gets the WA passed.
the ERG are made up of a hardcore of anti eu fanatics who have been voting against their own leadership for years, they will do it again at the drop of a hat so Johnson has to keep pandering to them at the very least until the WA is over the line.

I don't think he'll have trouble getting the WA passed. The ERG are no longer the force they were and the current WA is a lot more ERG friendly than the previous May deal.

Nody

Mezcita wrote: »

Ah the same time though all Johnson needs to do is ramp up the spin machine to put the blame back on the EU for any delay.

They have already spent 3 years doing that; Boris committed himself to make it happen by end of 2020 so even blaming EU will not really work for this because he's complained for 3 years about EU and knew about EU when making the commitment.

54and56

Mezcita wrote: »

Ah the same time though all Johnson needs to do is ramp up the spin machine to put the blame back on the EU for any delay.

But who will care? Once the WA is signed no one in the EU will really care too much about how the EU is perceived within the UK as the possibility, regardless of how slim it ever was, of the UK changing it's mind and remaining will be gone.

The EU have not fallen into the political trap of setting itself a negotiating deadline. The end of 2020 is a unilateral UK deadline which only puts pressure on themselves. It's in the EU's interest to crack on and get the trading relationship with the UK agreed but the primary focus will be on getting it right, not doing it quick.

Pablo Escobar

54and56 wrote: »

But who will care? Once the WA is signed no one in the EU will really care too much about how the EU is perceived within the UK as the possibility, regardless of how slim it ever was, of the UK changing it's mind and remaining will be gone.

The EU have not fallen into the political trap of setting itself a negotiating deadline. The end of 2020 is a unilateral UK deadline which only puts pressure on themselves. It's in the EU's interest to crack on and get the trading relationship with the UK agreed but the primary focus will be on getting it right, not doing it quick.

In a nutshell, this is 100% correct. I know you implied it, but there's not a chance in hell that this will be wrapped up in 2020.

Strazdas

54and56 wrote: »

But who will care? Once the WA is signed no one in the EU will really care too much about how the EU is perceived within the UK as the possibility, regardless of how slim it ever was, of the UK changing it's mind and remaining will be gone.

The EU have not fallen into the political trap of setting itself a negotiating deadline. The end of 2020 is a unilateral UK deadline which only puts pressure on themselves. It's in the EU's interest to crack on and get the trading relationship with the UK agreed but the primary focus will be on getting it right, not doing it quick.

100% ; why would anyone in the EU be remotely bothered about what an ex-member state who left in a huff was saying about them? The British would just be talking to each other and nobody even listening to them any longer.

Russman

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think he'll have trouble getting the WA passed. The ERG are no longer the force they were and the current WA is a lot more ERG friendly than the previous May deal.

How, exactly ?


Agree with you that he'll have no problem passing the WA though, that bit is effectively done and dusted now. Come 1st Feb they're a 3rd country looking for a trade deal.

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

100% ; why would anyone in the EU be remotely bothered about what an ex-member state who left in a huff was saying about them? The British would just be talking to each other and nobody even listening to them any longer.

I've already noticed a significant decline in my interest in UK politics and reporting since 22:01 last Thursday when the exit poll results were revealed. I was prepared to stay up and watch the coverage, particularly John Bercow's contribution on Sky if it looked like the result was in the balance or even if the result was likely to be anything less than a majority for the Tories but the exit poll left little doubt what the result would be and by extension left little doubt that the WA would be passed with the UK exiting on Jan 31st so I just went to bed.

Since then I'm not too bothered making the effort to watch Newsnight which I used to try and do most nights and whereas I used to listen to LBC religiously in the mornings (Nick Ferrari) and most evenings (Farage) as I drove home from work I've now migrated to some non political podcast listening as the LBC agenda items are more internal UK so to speak e.g. will Boris ditch HS2, will he really fund the NHS, how will the Labour party rebuild etc etc and I'm just not interested. No doubt when the time comes in May (or is it June) to decide whether to have an extension to the transition period or not there will be a flurry of Brexit related discussion and blaming of the EU for dragging their heels and not just "getting the FTA done" as no doubt BoJo will be saying the UK are prepared to do but it'll be so predictable and so irrelevant that even then I don't think I'll be that interested.

Speaking of Farage, has he pulled the plug on the Brexit Party yet or is he actually going to try and pivot into the Reform Party? Personally I think he needs to exit the stage with some credit for helping achieve (a sort of) Brexit rather than double down on carrying on under a new banner and mission which would almost certainly fade into obscurity fairly quickly.

Enzokk

This was the salient points from the briefing from Downing street today,

Downing Street lobby briefing - summary
I’m just back from the No 10 lobby briefing. It went on for quite a while, but it was not hugely illuminating. We certainly did not come away with any great new insights into the agenda of the new government.

Here are the main points.

The prime minister’s spokesman confirmed that the government would “start the process” of passing the Brexit withdrawal agreement bill before Christmas. It is understood that No 10 wants to hold the second reading debate on Friday, after the Queen’s speech on Thursday. But it would be unusual to hold a second reading debate a day after the Queen’s speech, and it is not clear yet whether the Speaker would approve this.

The spokesman said Boris Johnson has now approved the intelligence and security committee’s report in Russian involvement in British politics for publication. This is the report that Johnson refused to publish before the election, prompting speculation that he was suppressing it because it would be embarrassing to the Conservatives. This means the ISC is now free to publish it. But the ISC does not currently exist, because a new ISC has to be appointed when the new parliament meets, and so the report is not expected to appear until a new ISC is formed at some point in the new year. The spokesman declined to say exactly when the PM decided the report was fit for publication.

The spokesman confirmed that the government would review whether non-payment of the TV licence fee should be decriminalised.

The spokesman refused to say whether the withdrawal agreement bill due to be published this week would be exactly the same as the one given a second reading by MPs before the election. Asked about this, the spokesman said:
You will have to wait for it to be published but it will reflect the agreement that we made with the EU on our withdrawal.

The spokesman said the government would be aiming for “a Canada-style free trade agreement with no political alignment” in its talks with the EU on a post-Brexit trade deal. But he refused to say any more about the government’s strategy in those talks.

The spokesman refused to confirm that a no-deal Brexit at the end of the transition period was still a possibility. Asked to confirm that this was a logical possibility if the UK and the EU failed to reach an agreement by the end of next year, the spokesman just said that it was in the interests of both the UK and the EU to get a Canada-style trade deal.

Guardian news updates -12h08

So the Russian report is now good for publication, but it will take time as a new committee needs to be convened but this will only happen after all the potential members have been vetted. You wonder why it is clear for publication now and not before the election.

Then the other thing that stands out again, Canada style FTA is the objective. Other than people speculating about Johnson going soft, no indications has been forthcoming from anywhere else to support this stance.

farmchoice

54and56 wrote: »

I've already noticed a significant decline in my interest in UK politics and reporting since 22:01 last Thursday when the exit poll results were revealed. I was prepared to stay up and watch the coverage, particularly John Bercow's contribution on Sky if it looked like the result was in the balance or even if the result was likely to be anything less than a majority for the Tories but the exit poll left little doubt what the result would be and by extension left little doubt that the WA would be passed with the UK exiting on Jan 31st so I just went to bed.

Since then I'm not too bothered making the effort to watch Newsnight which I used to try and do most nights and whereas I used to listen to LBC religiously in the mornings (Nick Ferrari) and most evenings (Farage) as I drove home from work I've now migrated to some non political podcast listening as the LBC agenda items are more internal UK so to speak e.g. will Boris ditch HS2, will he really fund the NHS, how will the Labour party rebuild etc etc and I'm just not interested. No doubt when the time comes in May (or is it June) to decide whether to have an extension to the transition period or not there will be a flurry of Brexit related discussion and blaming of the EU for dragging their heels and not just "getting the FTA done" as no doubt BoJo will be saying the UK are prepared to do but it'll be so predictable and so irrelevant that even then I don't think I'll be that interested.

Speaking of Farage, has he pulled the plug on the Brexit Party yet or is he actually going to try and pivot into the Reform Party? Personally I think he needs to exit the stage with some credit for helping achieve (a sort of) Brexit rather than double down on carrying on under a new banner and mission which would almost certainly fade into obscurity fairly quickly.

i feel exactly the same, they have well and truly made their bed and they can lie in it now. once the WA agreement is singed they can go back to telling themselves lies until the cows come home but im worn out listening to them.

if boris can convince them that black is white good luck to him and good luck to them as well.

johnnyskeleton

Does anyone know much about the legal mechanics of the E.E.A.?

Just reading up a bit on it there, and I think that, in much the same way as the inner workings of both the E.U. Treaties, the W.T.O. and the U.K. Parliament have become analysed and discussed in a manner unlike any time previously over the last 3 years, the next year will involve detailed scrutiny of the E.E.A.

Signed in 1992, it would seem at first glance (and according to a leading U.K. law firm) to be an agreement between the E.U. on the one part and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein on the other. However, it could also be considered a multi party agreement between the individual states and also with the E.U.. Croatia, for example, had to apply to join the E.E.A. when they joined the E.U., and their application has not been formally accepted as of yet. Under Art 128 E.E.A.A., new member States of the E.U. have to apply to be members of the E.E.A. Logically, if the E.E.A. interprets Art 128 as membership is not automatic with E.U. Membership, then logically it would also consider that leaving the E.E.A. is not automatic upon leaving the E.U., particularly as there is an express provision for leaving in Art 127.

Art 127 of the E.E.A. Agreement requires 12 months notice of intention to leave. It seems to be the case that no formal application to leave has been received, and it is assumed, but not necessarily the case, that upon leaving the E.U. the U.K. will leave the E.E.A. as well.

However, what if that is not the case. Boris will have to serve a notice to leave the E.E.A. under Article 127 by the end of the year. Is it possible that the U.K. Government has simply overlooked this? Unlikely, as this was flagged as an issue since 2016. It's also strange that the E.E.A. Council hasn't expressed an opinion on this. I guess it's because it has been second fiddle to the Brexit Negotiations, but now I think it is going to become relevant.

Assuming the following:
1. The EU wants as close a trading relationship with the UK as possible;
2. In the Boris Johnson era, Theresa May's red lines are a light shade of pink at best; and
3. The U.K. needs a win, and fast;

then we could have the following scenario:

1. Media campaign talking about how wonderful the E.F.T.A. association was. Inspired by that great visionary Winston Churchill, worked on by Sir Anthony Eden and finally brought in by that dear fellow Harold Macmillan, it was an alternative, if not a rival to, the European Economic Community;
2. The E.E.A. will be discussed as the natural successor to that august institution which was led before by the U.K., and will be led by them again;
3. Proud independent and wealthy countries like Iceland and Norway are E.E.A. Members, and they keep their precious fishing rights. The U.K. would do well to be like them;
4. Economic benefits of the Single Market will be praised, no one will mention that the E.E.A. involves payments to other countries nor that it has almost the same level of free movement of persons rights nor that the ECJ is the arbiter of disputes. Emphasis will be placed on the greater scope for state aid to poorer regions under E.E.A. than E.U. Also, the ability to enter into ones own separate customs arrangements is what Brexit really is about;
5. The U.K. Government will suddenly pretend to panic and say "oh dear, we forgot to leave the E.E.A." By this time, people will be saying "the E.E.A. isn't so bad, it's not the evil E.U. Then Boris requests that the E.E.A. make some changes, maybe a few caveats on free movement of persons and a protocol on U.K. fishing and suddenly being the lead nation in the E.E.A. sounds like the ideal position for a proud and sensible people like the British. Maybe an independent Court for the E.E.A. which is modeled on the E.C.J. but has different personnel could be agreed.

Now, not all of the above is fatually accurate, but it fits in well with the Brexit narrative. Even Farage etc must accept that they wanted a Norway style "deal", and if they get to be the leading member of the E.E.A. with all the status and respect that that brings, then the wing of Brexiteers who want to see Britain's glorious rise to being a leader of nations rather than a rule taker will gladly cheer it on.

TLDR; I don't see a downside to the U.K. defaulting to being "just" an E.E.A. Member after December, 2020. All parties should work towards making that happen. And they won't be "trapped", because they can leave at any time with 12 months' notice!

briany

54and56 wrote: »

Speaking of Farage, has he pulled the plug on the Brexit Party yet or is he actually going to try and pivot into the Reform Party? Personally I think he needs to exit the stage with some credit for helping achieve (a sort of) Brexit rather than double down on carrying on under a new banner and mission which would almost certainly fade into obscurity fairly quickly.

I'd like to see Farage attempt this new party only for him to realise that he isn't quite as charismatic as he thinks he is and can't magically buoy up any movement he puts his name to. Farage was a good salesman for Brexit, but he was really capitalising on the tireless work that decades of British tabloids had already been doing. There isn't really the appetite for the type of political reform that Farage is advocating. Best thing for Farage to do now would be to retire to Hawaii.

Leonard Hofstadter

Strazdas wrote: »

100% ; why would anyone in the EU be remotely bothered about what an ex-member state who left in a huff was saying about them? The British would just be talking to each other and nobody even listening to them any longer.

Exactly. Why would we want the UK back any time soon after all the hassle and heartache they've caused us and the other 26 remaining EU countries?

We've got the border sorted, that's all I've ever cared about. The Government (and in fairness, most of the opposition) held the line and our stance was vindicated.

Of course, I feel sorry for my remain voting English friends and of course I don't want them to suffer for the actions of their fellow citizens both in the referendum and also the general election but outside that I really couldn't give a flying flamingo what they do now.

In a sense I'd nearly like the EU to give them a half decent deal to make sure they don't come back.

CelticRambler

54and56 wrote: »

I've already noticed a significant decline in my interest in UK politics and reporting since 22:01 last Thursday when the exit poll results were revealed.

You beat me to the same point of disinterest by a few hours! I did stay up, as I was interested in seeing/hearing the results of specific seats (IDS, Swinson, Johnson, etc) ... but high winds brought down a powerline at about 4am so that was the end of that. Subsequently, I was mildly distracted by the unexpected arrival of a wandering Mexican and reading your post realise that I haven't looked at the UK news since Friday morning ... and can't be bothered even to click on the UK election thread on this forum.

It's done, they're gone, next time I send a parcel to family in England, must remember to fill in the "non-EU destination" declaration on the Colissimo form. :rolleyes:

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Now, not all of the above is fatually accurate, but it fits in well with the Brexit narrative. Even Farage etc must accept that they wanted a Norway style "deal", and if they get to be the leading member of the E.E.A. with all the status and respect that that brings, then the wing of Brexiteers who want to see Britain's glorious rise to being a leader of nations rather than a rule taker will gladly cheer it on.

Yeah, but ... if you'll excuse this very rough translation from the original Norwegian: "they can feck right off if they think we're going to let a bunch of imperialists like them join the EEA!" :pac:

I see how the Westminster/UK media would paint the picture you describe, but both camps seem to have forgotten that in the 21st Century, you can't just barge into someone else's territory - you have to ask nicely, and you may (or may not) be allowed join the club. When the UK is proudly shouting "Chagos Islands? They're ours, mate; sod off" it's going to be difficult to convince the Scandinavians and the Swiss that they're a great bunch of lads who like to govern by consensus.

Shelga

I kind of agree with the people saying their interest in it all has nosedived considerably since the results came in. I was shocked at first but now it’s like- ok, Brexit is definitely happening, and under these terms- and yeah, the internal UK stuff just isn’t that compelling when you don’t live there.

But I think part of the reason I’ve paid so much attention to it all over the last 3 years is the high drama of it all! I find Irish politics incredibly dull by comparison.

I’m going to have to start finding non-political podcasts, and meditation apps I think And tune in to Brexitland again around summertime, when it all starts going pear-shaped again.