Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

alentejo wrote: »

I wonder if the EU could request an extension to the trade talks?

Why? The UK is a net (and significant) importer of EU goods. If they stop buying from the EU, EU manufacturers can sell surplus stock to any and all of the other countries with which it has FTAs, maybe at a discount, but they can still trade.

If, on the other hand, the UK stops buying EU goods (especially agricultural produce), they have to go looking for other providers, and no matter how hard they look, they won't find any that are closer than the 13- and 22-mile stretches of water that separate GB from the EU.

Enzokk

Zac Goldsmith will also be made a peer and will attend cabinet meetings it seems. That is fellow Etonian Zac Goldsmith who ran one of the most racist campaigns to become Mayor of London and who lost his seat this election, being brought back.

As for the exchange rate, seems like the markets haven't reacted well to the news there may be a WTO deal in a year's time. It went up to 1.20 GBP to the EUR from 1.17 GBP to the EUR before the election. It is now back down to 1.18 GBP to the EUR and those speculating could have made a pretty penny overnight.

Shelga

If they don’t have a deal by end of next year, do the conditions of the WA still apply by default? Ie there won’t be a hard border in Ireland because there’ll be one in the Irish Sea?

Or does the WA only cover the transition period anyway, so if they fall out of that, all bets are off?

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

Here are the changes to the WAB that Johnson has made,

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1206868975512117248?s=20

* Giving Parliament vote on extending transition

* Pariamentary oversight of trade negotiations

* ‘Non-regression’ on workers’ rights

So basically taking parliament out of the Brexit process. Well done Jo Swinson, you voted for this by allowing the election to take place.

some craic...

all good though - because these unaccountable elites are British... and they'll tell you straight that they are shafting you - but they'll do it over tea with a smile.

Better that than some serious unaccountable official over there in Brussels (spits)

ah sovereignty - t'is great

black forest

Shelga wrote: »

If they don’t have a deal by end of next year, do the conditions of the WA still apply by default? Ie there won’t be a hard border in Ireland because there’ll be one in the Irish Sea?

Or does the WA only cover the transition period anyway, so if they fall out of that, all bets are off?

The WA(Bill) is an international treaty and a stand alone one. So whatever the outcome of the negotiations in 2020 will be there will be no land border in Ireland. The EU-UK border will be in the irish sea.

Joe_ Public

alentejo wrote: »

I wonder if the EU could request an extension to the trade talks?

I guess they could make the suggestion to the joint committee but it will be up to johnson basically to initiate the process. U think whole june deadline issue could be just optics for the government, to keep track with manifesto pledges and delay any talk of new financial arrangements and commitments for another few months. If the will to extend still exists come Oct/Nov, they will find a way if they want to.

Not sure what all the fuss is about!?

"Non-regression" of worker's rights is presumably a positive development - no regress on existing rights etc.

Johnson was given a thumping majority to Get Brexit Done by Dec. 2020 next year. Enshrining this into law is merely a reflection of the pledge offered in his manifesto. Moreover, it informs the EU that no more extensions will be sought. With this deadline in mind, both sides can now work amicably toward a common goal. If not, the UK can simultaneously advance WTO preparations as it has over the past 2-years. We don't yet know what Johnson's negotiation strategy is going to be, so let's not assume that we do.

"Parliamentary oversight" is not part of the question. As Johnson received an overwhelming majority, it is incumbent upon his government in parliament to deliver. If he doesn't, the electorate will have their say next time around.

Chips Lovell

alentejo wrote: »

I wonder if the EU could request an extension to the trade talks?

They could, but they won't have to. The UK will.

Shelga wrote: »

If they don’t have a deal by end of next year, do the conditions of the WA still apply by default? Ie there won’t be a hard border in Ireland because there’ll be one in the Irish Sea?

Or does the WA only cover the transition period anyway, so if they fall out of that, all bets are off?

WA applies at the end of the transition period. Until the end of the transition period, nothing really changes and the UK remains in the Single Market and Customs Union.

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

some craic...

all good though - because these unaccountable elites are British... and they'll tell you straight that they are shafting you - but they'll do it over tea with a smile.

Better that than some serious unaccountable official over there in Brussels (spits)

ah sovereignty - t'is great

I wonder when the Tory press will start blaming Irish intransigence again? My guess is that it will kick in around February.

black forest

black forest wrote: »

The WA(Bill) is an international treaty and a stand alone one. So whatever the outcome of the negotiations in 2020 will be there will be no land border in Ireland. The EU-UK border will be in the irish sea.

What are the DUP thinking this morning I wonder? If this comes to pass, it really will highlight the enormity of the strategic mistakes they have made in the last couple of years.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

Not sure what all the fuss is about!?

"Non-regression" of worker's rights is presumably a positive development - no regress on existing rights etc.

Which is why it's significant that Johnson is removing their protection from the WAB.

Deleted User wrote: »

it informs the EU that no more extensions will be sought. With this deadline in mind, both sides can now work amicably toward a common goal.

The UK will first have to learn how to be amicable, and will then have to figure out how to bend the laws of time and space. Starting from zero (i.e. being a third country with no declared goals of convergent interest) the UK will face tough negotiations on every line of any future agreement ... or accept the EU's worst offer without complaint.

LordBasil

Strazdas wrote: »

No Deal would be a big setback of course, but I would be far more worried about everything if I was a UK citizen and resident. The penny doesn't seem to have dropped with many that they have just elected someone who it will be physically impossible to remove for five years, no matter how bad things get - all opponents of his have left the party or been kicked out by him.

I wouldn't be too sure of that. If things get really bad in a post-Brexit UK, all bets are off.

Look at what happened in Ireland 2007 - 2011. In May 2007 FF got re-elected to the surprise of many and formed a coalition with the Greens. The following year Bertie resigned, Cowen took over and the Bank Guarantee. The economic collapse of country took hold from then and by November 2010 the country needed a IMF/ECB Bailout. At the end of 2010 the FF/Green administration were the most despised government in Irish history and were hammered at the February 2011 Election. All that happened in less than 4 years.

GM228

Deleted User wrote: »

Brexit isn't just about Brexit. It's also about paving the way for other member states of the EU to opt to Leave.

Poland, Slovenia, and Italy are three such countries.



So whilst it may take some time to witness the dissolution of the EU, as some -- such as I -- wish to see, these statistics are encouraging.

Brexit has laid the foundation stone of a return to the nation-state.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nope. You're at it again.

A Kantor poll in September of 1,000 Polish people living in Poland shows that 75% would vote Remain and 4% (yes 4%!) would vote Leave.

A Censis poll of Italians last week found that 62% want to remain while 25% want to leave.

Looks like the UK is out on its own.

Deleted User wrote: »

Kantor also conducted the poll I quoted - results of which were recent, and not based on an August poll. :rolleyes:

Enzokk wrote: »

Lies. Please link better pages that has the actual poll information instead of random websites from the internet. I will link newspaper stories from the same poll your link refers to as well which disputes your link.

Support for EU membership above 80% in most member states amid Brexit mess

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Show me the data.

Enzokk wrote: »

Link to the poll please. That means since April the attitude in Poland has gone from more than 70% remain to 40% or so. That is a dramatic shift in attitude that will surely have major newspapers that support Brexit showing these results. It shouldn't be hard to get some links for your claims.

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but...

Eskimohunt (or rather the link he/she gave) is actually correct according to the Eurobarometer 91 published in August.

However, it is interesting to note that the opinion in the UK has shifted to a majority wanting to remain, that was not made clear.

One thing is clear as shown by the polls linked to by Professor Moriarty is that a sample size of 1000 people one day gives a totally different picture to a sample size of 1000 people 3 months later. The latest poll published in September, but conducted 3 months later shows 75% of Pols and 62% of Italians want to stay and that is what matters.

Christy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

Which is why it's significant that Johnson is removing their protection from the WAB.



The UK will first have to learn how to be amicable, and will then have to figure out how to bend the laws of time and space. Starting from zero (i.e. being a third country with no declared goals of convergent interest) the UK will face tough negotiations on every line of any future agreement ... or accept the EU's worst offer without complaint.

Remember that they said they would definitely leave in May. Then Boris said that no matter what he would leave in October. This definitely leaving at "x" date has been done before and the EU won't buy it.

The vote to ban extensions is meaningless. They have also voted to outlaw a no deal on a few occasions which was also pointless. It is why they pass so easily as no one cares enough about pointless postering.

I could see Boris grabbing the EUs worst deal to get out of the room though. He will be seen as the man who delivered Brexit. It is largely irrelevant if it is good for the UK since he does not care.

Professor Moriarty

GM228 wrote: »

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but...

Eskimohunt (or rather the link he/she gave) is actually correct according to the Eurobarometer 91 published in August.

However, it is interesting to note that the opinion in the UK has shifted to a majority wanting to remain, that was interestingly not stated!

Would you have a link? It cannot be the case that:

"47 percent of Poles believe that a bright future for our country extends only if Poland leaves the European Union."

Yet in September this year:

75% of Poles would vote to Remain and 4% would vote Leave.


Doesn't compute.

Injuryprone

Enzokk wrote: »

Here are the changes to the WAB that Johnson has made,

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1206868975512117248?s=20

* Giving Parliament vote on extending transition

* Pariamentary oversight of trade negotiations

* ‘Non-regression’ on workers’ rights

So basically taking parliament out of the Brexit process. Well done Jo Swinson, you voted for this by allowing the election to take place.

Surely the story here is that Boris doesn't think he can keep all his MPs in line throughout the negotiations next year? Given the size of majority that he currently has, he'd easily win whatever vote thats held in the Commons so long as he can control his MPs. This makes Boris look very weak imo

Injuryprone

Injuryprone wrote: »

Surely the story here is that Boris doesn't think he can keep all his MPs in line throughout the negotiations next year? Given the size of majority that he currently has, he'd easily win whatever vote thats held in the Commons so long as he can control his MPs. This makes Boris look very weak imo

I think the opposite is the case; it's an immediate demonstration of Johnson's strength that he is now putting his foot down, committing Brexit to the electorate, and letting the opposition/EU know that the end game is in sight.

No more dither and delay.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

... and letting the opposition/EU know that the end game is in sight.

:pac: The end-game has been visible to the EU since 2015! You really don't get it, do you? The EU had strategised for this even before the referendum was held. That's why Johnson's posturing is nothing more than that: posturing.

GM228

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Would you have a link? It cannot be the case that:

"47 percent of Poles believe that a bright future for our country extends only if Poland leaves the European Union."

Yet in September this year:

75% of Poles would vote to Remain and 4% would vote Leave.


Doesn't compute.

Indeed it is a strange shift, and both polls were conducted by Kantor.

https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/standard/surveyky/2253

https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/88420

Page 89:-

Leaving the EU, an idea rejected by a clear majority of Europeans -

Although the ratio of opinion has deteriorated somewhat since autumn 2018, a very strong majority of Europeans remain convinced that it is better to be in the EU than outside. 59% (-2 percentage points) say that they disagree that their country 'could better face the future outside the EU', while 32% (+2) are of the contrary view and 9% (=) express no opinion on this.

The opinion that it is better to be in the EU than outside is more widely shared in euro area countries (64%, -2 percentage points, against 28%, +2) than in countries outside the euro area (51%, -1, against 39%, +3).

The majority hold this opinion in 26 EU Member States, compared with 27 in autumn 2018. It has become the majority view in this survey in the United Kingdom (45% against 42% compared with 42% against 44% in autumn 2018), but is now held by a minority in Poland (45% against 47% compared with 55% against 36%). Opinions are evenly balanced in Slovenia (48% against 48%) whereas the majority believed it was better to be in the EU than outside in autumn 2018 (54% against 40%).

It is most widespread in the Netherlands (87%), Denmark (80%) and Germany (78%), while the ratio of opinion is much narrower in Italy (46% against 44%).

But, it's based on the following: "Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. (OUR COUNTRY) could better face the future outside the EU", that IMO is not indicative of a yes/no vote to leave.

Interestingly though Poland were the fourth highest at 74% to be optimistic about the future of the EU, they also have the highest satisfaction with benefits deriving from the EU like free trade!

Christy42

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the opposite is the case; it's an immediate demonstration of Johnson's strength that he is now putting his foot down, committing Brexit to the electorate, and letting the opposition/EU know that the end game is in sight.

No more dither and delay.

Wait I thought the endgame was October and Boris would prefer to be dead in a ditch? Is he ambivalent about the ditch thing?

The UK can talk all it likes, I see no reason to believe it. The EU was ready for the end game was it was promised back in May. The EU will believe the end game is approaching when it actually starts to happen.

CelticRambler

Christy42 wrote: »

Wait I thought the endgame was October and Boris would prefer to be dead in a ditch? Is he ambivalent about the ditch thing?

The UK can talk all it likes, I see no reason to believe it. The EU was ready for the end game was it was promised back in May. The EU will believe the end game is approaching when it actually starts to happen.

Besides, the Brexiter's "end game" is (like so much of their pontifications) a vague and ill-defined notion. The date that really matters is 31st January 2020: if the UK's MEPs are gone from the European Parliament, that is the end of Britain's place in the EU, regardless of any transitional arrangements that make life easier for British citizens.

Then, as the saying goes, let the games begin. :cool:

Seth Brundle

Deleted User wrote: »

Johnson was given a thumping majority to Get Brexit Done by Dec. 2020 next year. Enshrining this into law is merely a reflection of the pledge offered in his manifesto. Moreover, it informs the EU that no more extensions will be sought. With this deadline in mind, both sides can now work amicably toward a common goal. If not, the UK can simultaneously advance WTO preparations as it has over the past 2-years. We don't yet know what Johnson's negotiation strategy is going to be, so let's not assume that we do.

What page of the negotiating strategy handbook does it say that you should ensure that you don't have much time to negotiate a good deal for yourself?
Is there a comparable example of an international trade deal where a country time limited itself and successfully concluded the negotiations?

The EU is under no time pressure - the UK has just handed them an advantage card :rolleyes:

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

What page of the negotiating strategy handbook does it say that you should ensure that you don't have much time to negotiate a good deal for yourself?
Is there a comparable example of an international trade deal where a country time limited itself and successfully concluded the negotiations?

The EU is under no time pressure - the UK has just handed them an advantage card :rolleyes:

It didn't really. The EU holds all of the cards. This is the stage where the UK takes back control by ceding all of it to the Europeans. We've already seen some demands on the trade deal which all members must ratify. Of course, Johnson is free to baulk at this but he knows what no deal does to the UK. Taking back control of fisheries makes little sense if tariffs are going to be slapped on the 66% of British fish that are exported to the single market.

It's rather similar to before except the British can't really do anything but posture now. We have the WA and it'll soon be ratified by Parliament. That means we just need the EU to say that it'll just demand a longer version of the transition period as the trade deal and Johnson will almost certainly cave based on precedent.

Ultimately, he is posturing for his base. That's all this really is. Maybe he'll defy my expectations and stay on the ethnic nationalist and populist course but he won't make or keep his gains that way and he knows it.

Seth Brundle

Seth Brundle wrote: »

What page of the negotiating strategy handbook does it say that you should ensure that you don't have much time to negotiate a good deal for yourself?
Is there a comparable example of an international trade deal where a country time limited itself and successfully concluded the negotiations?

The EU is under no time pressure - the UK has just handed them an advantage card :rolleyes:

Precedent shows that, where possible, the EU will always, always extend -- and parliament will always, always approve of said extension.

This is the only certain and conclusive way to put an end to this debate. Either a deal is done, or it isn't. Either way, the UK departs from the EU from Dec. 2020, as promised by Johnson during the election.

Given past and future preparations, I have no doubt that the UK will weather a WTO exit.

It's up to the EU to decide whether they want favourable terms with the UK.

The EU sells more to the UK than the UK does to the EU. It's in both sides interests to sketch out a viable trade arrangement. But it will never be done if these non-stop extensions take hold. The UK voted to put an end to this extension nonsense.

Professor Moriarty

GM228 wrote: »

Indeed it is a strange shift, and both polls were conducted by Kantor.

https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/standard/surveyky/2253

https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/88420

Page 89:-



But, it's based on the following: "Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. (OUR COUNTRY) could better face the future outside the EU", that IMO is not indicative of a yes/no vote to leave.

Interestingly though Poland were the fourth highest at 74% to be optimistic about the future of the EU, they also have the highest satisfaction with benefits deriving from the EU like free trade!

Yeah I saw that in the PDF (very interesting) - which confirms the 75% Remain figure. That other question is ambiguous at best and obviously doesn't reflect reality.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the opposite is the case; it's an immediate demonstration of Johnson's strength that he is now putting his foot down, committing Brexit to the electorate, and letting the opposition/EU know that the end game is in sight.

He is handing a weapon to the EU. Up to now, he had the option, if things weren't going his way, to extend in June.

Now he is committed to no extension, so the EU just has to stonewall until July and then Johnson will have to take whatever's on the table.

Or he could climb down and repeal this law in June and ask for the extension. His majority would allow it, but I don't know if his pride will.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Precedent shows that, where possible, the EU will always, always extend -- and parliament will always, always approve of said extension.

This is the only certain and conclusive way to put an end to this debate. Either a deal is done, or it isn't. Either way, the UK departs from the EU from Dec. 2020, as promised by Johnson during the election.

Given past and future preparations, I have no doubt that the UK will weather a WTO exit.

It's up to the EU to decide whether they want favourable terms with the UK.

The EU sells more to the UK than the UK does to the EU. It's in both sides interests to sketch out a viable trade arrangement. But it will never be done if these non-stop extensions take hold. The UK voted to put an end to this extension nonsense.

The UK will not get an extension. The EU already wants to move on to other things as does it's population. The rope has run out and the amusement that EU citizens had for the debacle is over.

The UK should now prep itself for end game as the EU and any of the UK's direct trading relationships have already done. You wonder why factories are closing down in the UK and EU because they have already shifted to the notion that selling to or exporting from the UK will be difficult and costly.


The jig is up. The cards are on the table and the UK hasn't got aces.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Given past and future preparations, I have no doubt that the UK will weather a WTO exit.

No-one is suggesting the UK will sink beneath the waves.

It is just going to cost an enormous amount more than necessary. Far, far more than the Labour spending programme you were deriding during the election campaign, and with no tangible benefits at all except pride.

And pride goes...

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He is handing a weapon to the EU. Up to now, he had the option, if things weren't going his way, to extend in June.

Now he is committed to no extension, so the EU just has to stonewall until July and then Johnson will have to take whatever's on the table.

Or he could climb down and repeal this law in June and ask for the extension. His majority would allow it, but I don't know if his pride will.

A "no deal" outcome is not optimum for both sides.

Both sides -- moreso the EU than the UK -- would experience some form of harm.

This idea that the EU will "punish" the UK by refusing to talk about trade arrangements, if anything, reinforces the need to leave such an awful institution in the first place.

Who would want to negotiate with that kind of bad faith.

The EU agreed, with Johnson, that a trade arrangement should be done by the end of next year. That's what Johnson and the EU signed up for. If they are now willing to renege on their commitment, then that's their choice. The EU will experience economic damage from that decision.

Johnson and a WTO deal is just fine. There's nothing wrong with that outcome at all.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Johnson and a WTO deal is just fine. There's nothing wrong with that outcome at all.

Close the door on your way out.