Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Bit cynical

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Th UK wide backstop was designed to fit within Theresa May's absurd red lines. Johnson was happy to ditch the DUP and Northern Ireland the first chance he got.

And, of course, to appease the DUP who were vehemently against an Irish sea border and upon whose votes May depended. However it also suited Ireland greatly as we would not suffer economically to the extent that is now likely under the deal to which we eventually agreed.

What Johnson did was ditch the DUP in favour of the ERG who wanted a harder Brexit.

Inquitus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson doing a volte face on Brexit within months of being elected will reopen the Tory split. Large swathes of the Tory party will go bananas if he tries to sign up for Brino - the ERG and others are explicitly against a soft Brexit.

He doesn't need the ERG now mind, to get a WA through parliament.

ancapailldorcha

Bit cynical wrote: »

And, of course, to appease the DUP who were vehemently against an Irish sea border and upon whose votes May depended. However it also suited Ireland greatly as we would not suffer economically to the extent that is now likely under the deal to which we eventually agreed.

I initially thought the EU had ceded ground as well but this suits Ireland as well as Brexit can ever suit Ireland.

farmchoice

Inquitus wrote: »

He doesn't need the ERG now mind, to get a WA through parliament.

thats not totally clear. he has a majority of less than 80 and the ERG used to number about 90.

so to lose his majority he would need about 40 tory mp's to vote with the opposition.

of the 90 or so members of the erg there is a hard core of about 30 who are quite the fanatics. by and large the new bunch of MP's are suspected to be more hard line leavers so perhaps this is now higher.


he can only afford to push these lunatics so far, for now anyway, until he gets a bit of water under the bridge.

Professor Moriarty

Inquitus wrote: »

He doesn't need the ERG now mind, to get a WA through parliament.

No, but this is a much more right wing and pro Brexit Tory government than the last. He has a majority of 80. There are more than 80 Tory MPs who won't countenance a soft Brexit. Of course he could reach out to some of the smaller parties for support...

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/StandUp4Brexit/status/1206957456326352896

This is factually incorrect in my view.

Varadkar walked away after 90 minutes with Boris with a front stop instead of a back stop - a quantifiable advance on what was originally requested.

Now an Irish sea border is the default, not the back up.

Some victory that, the dismemberment of your own country.

johnnyskeleton

CelticRambler wrote: »

"We" didn't concede anything. Ireland always accepted that that body of water called the Irish Sea was a de facto border, and the infrastructure is in place at all of our air and sea ports to enable checks on goods (and people) coming from non-EU countries.

The only thing that really mattered to Ireland was a border on the island of Ireland. Varadkar didn't concede on that point when he persuaded Johnson to sign the deal that the DUP had rejected; on the contrary, we/the EU suceeded in fast-forwarding the "unless and until" part of the backstop that scuppered May's government, getting an alternative arrangement in place that suited our agenda, not that of the ERG.

Hey look - if the British want to call this a win, I'm happy for them to celebrate a series of further victories in the rest of the negotiations.

If Brexit was won on feelings over facts, it costs us nothing to let them feel like they've won!

Kermit.de.frog

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Hey look - if the British want to call this a win, I'm happy for them to celebrate a series of further victories in the rest of the negotiations.

If Brexit was won on feelings over facts, it costs us nothing to let them feel like they've won!

If that's a victory i'd hate to see what a defeat looks like.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If that's a victory i'd hate to see what a defeat looks like.

Weren't you in favor of Brexit?

farmchoice

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Hey look - if the British want to call this a win, I'm happy for them to celebrate a series of further victories in the rest of the negotiations.

If Brexit was won on feelings over facts, it costs us nothing to let them feel like they've won!

i thinks that what we can look forward to over the next year, the British telling themselves (courtesy of the mail the express,the telegraph the sun and Laura K) that they won a series of victories over the ''insert gratuitous insult here'' Europeans. no one will be listening only themselves and us (readers of this thread).

johnnyskeleton

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is factually incorrect in my view.

Varadkar walked away after 90 minutes with Boris with a front stop instead of a back stop - a quantifiable advance on what was originally requested.

Now an Irish sea border is the default, not the back up.

Some victory that, the dismemberment of your own country.

Yep. As some wag here, in a rare moment of levity said, Boris was like someone who went into DFS, demanded to pay full price for a sofa, and everyone cheered him for it.

Her line that No Deal would be catastrophic for Ireland is also something of a misnomer. It would be catastrophic that the North would return to violence. It would be bad for the south that trade, particularly in beef, would be disrupted. However, the EU will compensate Ireland for any disruption to trade, so the only insuprable problem is the violence in the North. Which is on the territory of the United Kingdom.

So yes, No Deal would be catastrophic for Ireland, in particular that part of Ireland which Brexiteers so dearly want to hold on to. I wonder does she know that Northern Ireland is part of the UK, and so she is suggesting that the UK will shoot themselves in the foot?

Bit cynical

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Hey look - if the British want to call this a win, I'm happy for them to celebrate a series of further victories in the rest of the negotiations.

It does seem to be the case that the British are calling it a victory if the election results are anything to go by.

Not sure Varadkar will fare so well in our upcoming election.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson doing a volte face on Brexit within months of being elected will reopen the Tory split. Large swathes of the Tory party will go bananas if he tries to sign up for Brino - the ERG and others are explicitly against a soft Brexit.

Also I don't think he himself is a soft Brexiteer at heart.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

Also I don't think he himself is a soft Brexiteer at heart.

His actions would suggest not. Let's not forget he was a staunch Leave advocate in the referendum and has advocated relatively hard Brexit policies ever since.

Shelga

Why were the DUP so adamantly against May’s deal? It took NI out of the EU on the same terms as GB, which is literally all they care about.

Also I can’t wait to hear Johnson say “our friends and partners in the EU” 500 times a week again.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Why were the DUP so adamantly against May’s deal? It took NI out of the EU on the same terms as GB, which is literally all they care about.

Also I can’t wait to hear Johnson say “our friends and partners in the EU” 500 times a week again.

The DUP are populists and a hard Brexit is the epitome of populism.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Johnson doing a volte face on Brexit within months of being elected will reopen the Tory split. Large swathes of the Tory party will go bananas if he tries to sign up for Brino - the ERG and others are explicitly against a soft Brexit.

Maybe; if Boris can't get it through parliament we just go back around the houses as many times as needed to get someone who can.

prawnsambo

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Hey look - if the British want to call this a win, I'm happy for them to celebrate a series of further victories in the rest of the negotiations.

If Brexit was won on feelings over facts, it costs us nothing to let them feel like they've won!

It reminds me of the old aphorism: "Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your own way".

Chips Lovell

The only thing Boris Johnson believes in is Boris Johnson. He is a cynical opportunist, with few scruples and no shame.

He supported Brexit because it advanced his career and won him an election. He will not hesitate to change that position when it no longer suits him. Any change of tack will be accompanied by denials and blaming of other people.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

Maybe; if Boris can't get it through parliament we just go back around the houses as many times as needed to get someone who can.

Looks like it. You can get 99/1 on Revoke now.

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

Also I don't think he himself is a soft Brexiteer at heart.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

His actions would suggest not. Let's not forget he was a staunch Leave advocate in the referendum and has advocated relatively hard Brexit policies ever since.

The only thing I would say is that he's slightly more flexible than the doctrinaire ERG MPs. If there's some major advantage to, say, accepting some EU rules, for example, a comprehensive deal on services, then he might go with it. But he's not going to go for full CU+SM or anything like that.

This is why I think some are presenting the recent deal WA deal as a success for brexiteers in the UK. It moves away from something resembling the customs union.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Looks like it. You can get 99/1 on Revoke now.

No chance of Revoke. Boris will take what the EU gives him and hope enough Tory MPs want to keep their comfy seats for five years to back him.

This isn't a negotiation; its a face saving scramble.

woohoo!!!

The machinations of Tories/Brexiteers are extremely dull at this stage. I do look forward to Brexit taking a bit of a back seat from an Irish perspective, it'll still be prominent but not this all consuming beast that it has been.

CelticRambler

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well the May deal that we had been insisting upon up to a point a few weeks before was much better for Ireland from a trading point of view, I think you will agree. In that respect it could be argued that we backed down and accepted a lesser deal.

Bit cynical wrote: »

However it also suited Ireland greatly as we would not suffer economically to the extent that is now likely under the deal to which we eventually agreed.

Yeah ... but no! This idea of a "better deal" as regards Ireland's trade is based on what Ireland's trade used to be. Sure, there are some things where Ireland is still inconveniently aligned with the UK (3-pin plugs, for example), but since the referendum, Ireland has been taking active steps to reduce the relevance of our trade and trade routes with and through the UK.

By far the biggest threat to Ireland-UK trade would have been a border between the Republic and the North, disrupting all the over-and-back movement in the agri-food industry. Now it's just a question of making sure our exports to the UK sell at a premium; and we'll get our imports from a little further back along the supply chain.

For a very brief period in 2016, I moved in a circle that included the Irish government's movers and shakers on the continent. Despite Tony Connelly's best reports, I'm still not sure that the average Indo-reading Irishman really appreciates how energetically the government (with the tacit support of FF) has worked to defuse the Brexit Bomb ... or at least build a decent wall of sandbags between us and GB.

In short, Varadkar could afford to let the EU offer Johnson a reheated "lesser" deal because the alternative was already two years past its sell-by date.

Bit cynical

Chips Lovell wrote: »

The only thing Boris Johnson believes in is Boris Johnson. He is a cynical opportunist, with few scruples and no shame.

He supported Brexit because it advanced his career and won him an election. He will not hesitate to change that position when it no longer suits him. Any change of tack will be accompanied by denials and blaming of other people.

It is easy to say that in hindsight but remember that when he chose to lead the Brexit campaign it was at a time when polls suggested remaining in the EU was the more popular choice. Had he just been pandering to popular opinion the easiest thing to do would have been to back Remain or at the very least avoid a prominent position on the Leave side.

On the other hand a while back I described on here him as Bertie Ahern but with brains and education. Did not go down well!

Water John

Yes a masterful job of work was done on this by the Irish civil service and politicians from all sides. That one voice gave great backing to Varadkar, Coveney and McEntee. It could have been politicians from other parties, it just happens that it was these were in situ.

ancapailldorcha

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is easy to say that in hindsight but remember that when he chose to lead the Brexit campaign it was at a time when polls suggested remaining in the EU was the more popular choice. Had he just been pandering to popular opinion the easiest thing to do would have been to back Remain or at the very least avoid a prominent position on the Leave side.

On the other hand a while back I described him as Bertie Ahern but with brains and education.

True but nobody expected Leave to win. Johnson was hedging his bets. He would win a new support base amongst the Eurosceptics and was too popular to be sidelined by Cameron. This would make him very well placed to become the next prime minister, overtaking George Osborne.

Of course, people voted to leave so this didn't pan out. People now see him for what he really is.

Chips Lovell

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is easy to say that in hindsight but remember that when he chose to lead the Brexit campaign it was at a time when polls suggested remaining in the EU was the more popular choice. Had he just been pandering to popular opinion the easiest thing to do would have been to back Remain or at the very least avoid a prominent position on the Leave side.

It was the more popular choice among supporters of all parties. But what Boris was interested in was what Conservative voters and, in particular, Conservative members were backing.

I don't in a million years, think he believed that Leave would actually win, leaving him like the dog who caught the car

Bit cynical

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

People now see him for what he really is.

And voted accordingly?

Bit cynical

Chips Lovell wrote: »

It was the more popular choice among supporters of all parties. But what Boris was interested in was what Conservative voters and, in particular, Conservative members were backing.

I don't in a million years, think he believed that Leave would actually win, leaving him like the dog who caught the car

I take your point.