Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

So, your ultimate point is what? The UK should reduce its rights and standards to Chinese levels? Brilliant.

Quite frankly, the Chinese will make their products to any standard you like, as long as you're prepared to par for it. The reality is that most traders want the cheapest and nastiest products they can sell (multiple times) on to the connedumers as possible to ensure the greatest profit margin.

The Chinese love dealing with these types of traders.

If the EU (& UK ) were serious about climate change, they would insist on products that last longer, but that won't happen as moving the goods and the money is all that matters.

Whose traders profit the most is the root cause of the whole Brexit issue.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

Whose traders profit the most is the root cause of the whole Brexit issue.

You think traders favour barriers to trade?

J Mysterio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Quite frankly, the Chinese will make their products to any standard you like, as long as you're prepared to par for it. The reality is that most traders want the cheapest and nastiest products they can sell (multiple times) on to the connedumers as possible to ensure the greatest profit margin.

The Chinese love dealing with these types of traders.

If the EU (& UK ) were serious about climate change, they would insist on products that last longer, but that won't happen as moving the goods and the money is all that matters.

Whose traders profit the most is the root cause of the whole Brexit issue.

So, you buy into that? For you it is desirable that the UK should now slash its rights and standards so they can receive international garbage food and unsafe, low quality consumer goods?

The UK should then what? Presumably also start manufacturing operations so workers on zero hour contracts can produce garbage? And sell to who? The Chinese and Indians? The US?

Bit cynical

smacl wrote: »

Same goes for skilled staff where most of the UK companies I'd work with recruit heavily from Southern and Eastern Europe because the local talent simply isn't available at the salaries they're offering, if at all.

However if you are trying to understand why at least some people voted for Brexit the answer is in the above extract. Is someone going to vote for something that allows employers to lower their wages?

jimmycrackcorm

J Mysterio wrote: »

So, you buy into that? For you it is desirable that the UK should now slash its rights and standards so they can receive international garbage food and unsafe, low quality consumer goods?

The UK should then what? Presumably also start manufacturing operations so workers on zero hour contracts can produce garbage? And sell to who? The Chinese and Indians? The US?

Isn't this exactly the Brexit message the Tories and garage have been pushing?
Global Britain and what not.

Capt'n Midnight

Shelga wrote: »

What is he playing at? No alignment with EU, but in the same breath saying a free trade agreement will be done within a year?

But it’s what the people voted for...

Bead buttered both sides, and unicorns for all.


Boris needs to keep everyone on side until power is secured.
After that remind MP's about the 21 expelled back in the day, and that they signed up to Brexit pledge. With a large majority a few can be punished from time to time "pour encourager les autres"

After that Boris & Co. only need to start looking like they are doing stuff in the run up to the next election. In between they have carte blanc.

The power grab from the judiciary is interesting. As is rolling back the European Courts.

And dropping the workers rights stuff. Didn't expect the mask to slip quite so soon.

sondagefaux wrote: »

Which one?

All of them.
Thanks to stuff like "Ye Olde" Proclamation by the Crown Act 1539.
To "Get Brexit Done"Westminster has taken powers to override ALL existing EU rules. So that means powers over health and safety and workers rights and human rights. So in effect it can ride roughshod over the Assemblies.

brickster69

spacecoyote wrote: »

In relative terms, based on classification as developed economies in the world the list is:

EU:
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia

European (non EU):
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
UK

Others:
Australia
Canada
Japan
New Zealand
United States

So 27 of the worlds 36 developed economies are in the EU. They may not be the biggest economies individually, but as a block, it far outweighs the other nations.

EU far outweighs the amount of debt per capita also. With 21 of the top 25 nations in the world. Ireland at number two just behind Japan.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

You think traders favour barriers to trade?

It depends on the trader and where the barrier is, US traders will find a bad UK - EU deal greatly beneficial as their goods will be cheaper and easier to import than the same from the EU. One of the main reasons that US business interests are pinned on a hard Brexit.

J Mysterio

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Isn't this exactly the Brexit message the Tories and garage have been pushing?
Global Britain and what not.

I don't think 'Global Britain' quite focused on slashing peoples rights and consumer protections. Global Britian is a unicorn, fairytale dream sold to those without the will or capacity to critically analyze how that might be reasonably or realistically achieved. It's a con for mugs so the Tories can consolidate their power and further enrich themselves, their backers and their cronies, at the expense of almost everyone else, to some extent or another.

I am yet to see the potential benefits of the Global Britain agenda outlined in any sort of sensical or credible fashion, only the considerable downsides are evident. Patriotism has blinded many, many ignorants to the reality and their blind faith is being badly abused. They are being, and will be buggered by the unscrupulous, rotten Tories for as long as they can get away with it. I'm not sure there are any decent Tories left. This is a party who could not accomodate a man like Dominic Grieve - one of the most honourable MPs to have served in 'that place'.

Moving in this direction means the UK is literally and metaphorically choosing to close itself off from the EU. Closing itself to the EU naturally means moving to the US and there they will find there is less room for negotiation. I fail to see how self restricting trade to the EU and willingly accepting the dictat of Trumps America instead can be a good idea. The Tories are prepping parliament for it regardless. That absolute swine Ian Duncan Smith was today declaring that Chlorinated Chicken was in fact a better standard of chicken to what we currently enjoy.

The UK have engineered a situation where they have enticed the US to help drive a wedge between them and the rest of Europe (not just 'the EU'). But there will be few concessions from the US and their demands will be many and onerous. Obviously I think it's a disaster and the while thing was completely unnecessary. A big con.

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

Not really; no matter the question or issue it's EU's fault (delay, obstinate, refusing to cooperate, see the big picture, talk details etc.) and if challenged on that view you tell them EU needs us more than we need them because German cars and Italian cheeses.

Out of every 10 cars made in the UK - where they are exported
- 2 stay in the UK
- 5 to the EU
- 1 in countries that have a free trade deal with the EU
- 2 in the Rest of the World , but mostly (17.8%) to Trump's America First US of A that has told Mexico that after a year of negotiations the US will decide on labour conditions there, ie a US veto.



tl;dr version. 80% of UK car production will be subject to WTO tariffs of 10% because technically they are just assembling EU made parts.

In an industry where moving from 4% margins are the norm a 10% tariff is game over.



Note:
PSA (Citroën, Opel ,Vauxhall) have merged with Fiat-Chrysler and they will be looking to make €3.7Bn in savings.

At this stage it looks like Opel or Vauxhall will take the brunt.
And anyone who thinks the German car industry wouldn't sacrifice Vauxhall to save Opel doesn't understand that the German car parts industry is bigger than the entire UK car industry or that German politicians value the jobs of the people who voted for them more than the jobs of the people who killed their grandparents during the last war.

Capt'n Midnight

10000maniacs wrote: »

Its a lot easier to get 43% than 50.01% in any poll.
The "Get Immigration Done" ..er. sorry.. "Get Brexit Done" slogan worked a treat with those nice voters up north.

Did you know ?

Get Brexit Done is an anagram of Being Extorted.

Assume this also applies to any dissenting back benchers.

Bit cynical

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is a party who could not accomodate a man like Dominic Grieve - one of the most honourable MPs to have served in 'that place'.

However the nett effect of his activity led to the comparatively mild Brexit of Theresa May being ditched for the much harder Brexit of Johnson.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, the Chinese will make their products to any standard you like, as long as you're prepared to pay for it. The reality is that most traders want the cheapest and nastiest products they can sell (multiple times) on to the connedsumers as possible to ensure the greatest profit margin.

The Chinese love dealing with these types of traders.

If the EU (& UK ) were serious about climate change, they would insist on products that last longer, but that won't happen as moving the goods and the money is all that matters.

Whose traders profit the most is the root cause of the whole Brexit issue.

J Mysterio wrote: »

So, you buy into that? For you it is desirable that the UK should now slash its rights and standards so they can receive international garbage food and unsafe, low quality consumer goods?

The UK should then what? Presumably also start manufacturing operations so workers on zero hour contracts can produce garbage? And sell to who? The Chinese and Indians? The US?

I don't know why you're quoting me and replying to something completely different!
I do buy into getting high quality at a decent price, something that many traders prefer not to do as it impacts on their profit margins, maintaining high standards is critical and should not be compromised just to get a deal done. Politicians in general are bidding for their business sponsors, so there must be a "financial" benefit for them in pursuing or opposing Brexit.

reslfj

KildareP wrote: »

It's the EU trying to hold the UK in against their will by trying to force a delay and extend beyond Dec 2020.

No! The EU will not hold the UK to anything except the WA now ratified in parliament.

Trade deal plus deals about lots of - for the UK vital - non trade items (long haul lorries, air security, Europol, security, Data/GDPR, EURATOM, medicine and, and, ....) will be next to impossible to agree EU-UK in time. Some must additionally be ratified in all 27 EU member states and in some regional parliaments too.

Even with the longest extended transition period (to end of 2022) negotiations will be very difficult. The UK will be hit the hardest by a too short negotiation period, as the EU has lots of trade negotiators, while the UK has next to none.

KildareP wrote: »

And it's the EU trying to punish the UK for leaving by not giving all the benefits of the Single Market and Customs Union without abiding by all of it's rules and regulations.

The EU27 has no intention to punish anyone. Boris will, however, effectively punish the UK by demanding only an eleven month transition.

After January 31. 2020 the UK is a 3. country. Brexit will result in the EU27 losing some business and money. The EU27 will negotiate hard to minimise these looses to its members and make the Brexiting UK pay most of the cost.

The Single/Internal Market - as created by Margaret Thatcher and her EU Commissioner Arthur Cockfield - is 100% based on identical minimum standards, rules and regulations for goods in all EU/EEA states.

Rules and the ECJ to enforce these rules is the SM for goods - and the SM is these enforced rules.

Boris Johnson has just changed the backstop into a frontstop without TM's UK wide CU.
You obviously can't have the benefits from something (SM/CU) you don't want to be part of. You can't get benefits of something you don't want to pay for.

After Jan 31. the EU27 has only the obligations to the UK following from the WA or from older non-EU treaties, the UK is part of. Why should the EU give the UK anything? The UK will have to 'pay' for every beneficial EU concession - and pay in full.

Lars

brickster69

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Out of every 10 cars made in the UK - where they are exported
- 2 stay in the UK
- 5 to the EU
- 1 in countries that have a free trade deal with the EU
- 2 in the Rest of the World , but mostly (17.8%) to Trump's America First US of A that has told Mexico that after a year of negotiations the US will decide on labour conditions there, ie a US veto.



tl;dr version. 80% of UK car production will be subject to WTO tariffs of 10% because technically they are just assembling EU made parts.

In an industry where moving from 4% margins are the norm a 10% tariff is game over.



Note:
PSA (Citroën, Opel ,Vauxhall) have merged with Fiat-Chrysler and they will be looking to make €3.7Bn in savings.

At this stage it looks like Opel or Vauxhall will take the brunt.
And anyone who thinks the German car industry wouldn't sacrifice Vauxhall to save Opel doesn't understand that the German car parts industry is bigger than the entire UK car industry or that German politicians value the jobs of the people who voted for them more than the jobs of the people who killed their grandparents during the last war.

You are forgetting something. The UK has set it's minimum rate for tariffs on cars at 10%. No reason at all for it not to raise them to 25% for all countries to export to the UK.

Probably would be the best way to protect the car industry in the UK to be honest, considering the left hand drive element.

If America did the same then what ?

listermint

brickster69 wrote: »

You are forgetting something. The UK has set it's minimum rate for tariffs on cars at 10%. No reason at all for it not to raise them to 25% for all countries to export to the UK.

Probably would be the best way to protect the car industry in the UK to be honest, considering the left hand drive element.

If America did the same then what ?

The UK doesn't and won't have the market to sell its self cars. That sort of idiocy is what brought about brexit. More silly conversations to come in 2020

brickster69

listermint wrote: »

The UK doesn't and won't have the market to sell its self cars. That sort of idiocy is what brought about brexit. More silly conversations to come in 2020

You never answered the question.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

You are forgetting something. The UK has set it's minimum rate for tariffs on cars at 10%. No reason at all for it not to raise them to 25% for all countries to export to the UK.

Probably would be the best way to protect the car industry in the UK to be honest, considering the left hand drive element.

If America did the same then what ?

Who owns the UK car industry?

listermint

brickster69 wrote: »

You never answered the question.

Was that a serious question?

1. America has a market for its own cars. But will always import always.

2. UK car manufacturers consist of all players with factories on the continent. They will just move all the work until there's nothing left.

So what's the question here ?

KildareP

reslfj wrote: »

No! The EU will not hold the UK to anything except the WA now ratified in parliament.

Trade deal plus deals about lots of - for the UK vital - non trade items (long haul lorries, air security, Europol, security, Data/GDPR, EURATOM, medicine and, and, ....) will be next to impossible to agree EU-UK in time. Some must additionally be ratified in all 27 EU member states and in some regional parliaments too.

Even with the longest extended transition period (to end of 2022) negotiations will be very difficult. The UK will be hit the hardest by a too short negotiation period, as the EU has lots of trade negotiators, while the UK has next to none.



The EU27 has no intention to punish anyone. Boris will, however, effectively punish the UK by demanding only an eleven month transition.

After January 31. 2020 the UK is a 3. country. Brexit will result in the EU27 losing some business and money. The EU27 will negotiate hard to minimise these looses to its members and make the Brexiting UK pay most of the cost.

The Single/Internal Market - as created by Margaret Thatcher and her EU Commissioner Arthur Cockfield - is 100% based on identical minimum standards, rules and regulations for goods in all EU/EEA states.

Rules and the ECJ to enforce these rules is the SM for goods - and the SM is these enforced rules.

Boris Johnson has just changed the backstop into a frontstop without TM's UK wide CU.
You obviously can't have the benefits from something (SM/CU) you don't want to be part of. You can't get benefits of something you don't want to pay for.

After Jan 31. the EU27 has only the obligations to the UK following from the WA or from older non-EU treaties, the UK is part of. Why should the EU give the UK anything? The UK will have to 'pay' for every beneficial EU concession - and pay in full.

Lars

I know that.
You know that.
Almost anyone outside the UK knows that.

But Boris is selling that message to the UK public who are lapping it up thick and fast.

The EU will be fully and solely to blame for all the downsides of Brexit.

brickster69

[QUOTE=listermint;112069179

So what's the question here ?[/QUOTE]

What will happen to the EU car industry if the UK and USA put 25% tariffs on car imports.

First Up

brickster69 wrote:

Probably would be the best way to protect the car industry in the UK to be honest, considering the left hand drive element.

Quickest way to close the UK car industry I can think of

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

What will happen to the EU car industry if the UK and USA put 25% tariffs on car imports.

Why would the UK and USA put up identical tariffs at the same time?

listermint

brickster69 wrote: »

What will happen to the EU car industry if the UK and USA put 25% tariffs on car imports.

Nothing. They'll still buy them.

Unless of course your expecting them to go all Cuba....

Is this the silly ideas we can expect. More of the same please. It really shines a beacon on the level of thinking we've got around this.

First Up

listermint wrote:

Nothing. They'll still buy them.

Those tarrifs apply to components too. Cars are assembled from components made elsewhere. Stick tarrifs and port delays into those supply chains and you kill those industries.

brickster69

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would the UK and USA put up identical tariffs at the same time?

It's a hypothetical question. Still not been answered like.

johnnyskeleton

brickster69 wrote: »

It's a hypothetical question. Still not been answered like.

Mod note:

Its been answered several times. You just seem to accept those answers. Discuss those answers, state your own view or move on

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

What will happen to the EU car industry if the UK and USA put 25% tariffs on car imports.

Well UK for starters don't have the components to make even their own cars meet the standard requirement of 50% being UK produced only parts; so they would add a tax of 25% on all cars basically.

US would be met with tariffs on other products as counter as they have already been told which all target Republican states such as Bourbon whisky etc. (and this is why Trump has still not raised any tariffs after all his grumblings about it). And of course rest of EU still trades with the rest of the world which both Boris and Trump appears to forget so we'd continue to sell to China etc.. Boris and Trump can sit around and pretend their markets are super special and will in no way lose competitive edge on the global market vs. companies actually competing instead; or that their development will in any way fall behind because companies without competition are known for their heavy investment into RD&Q etc. Because that has never happened in the past when it's been tried, nope, not a single time what so ever...

brickster69

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

Its been answered several times. You just seem to accept those answers. Discuss those answers, state your own view or move on

Ok , i will answer it. If the UK and USA slapped 25% tariffs on EU cars, the EU would collapse. Germany would go into a depression straight away and spread throughout the rest of the continent within weeks.

listermint

brickster69 wrote: »

Ok , i will answer it. If the UK and USA slapped 25% tariffs on EU cars, the EU would collapse. Germany would go into a depression straight away and spread throughout the rest of the continent within weeks.

One word.


Nonsense.


It's all I have to describe this stuff. Various reasons you already know the answer to.