Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

Ok , i will answer it. If the UK and USA slapped 25% tariffs on EU cars, the EU would collapse. Germany would go into a depression straight away and spread throughout the rest of the continent within weeks.

ROFL; ok, you got me I admit. Do please feel free to back up your claims with anything remotely close to facts please and before you go qouting the full sales keep in mind that all German car manufacturers have car plants in the US in the first place.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

Ok , i will answer it. If the UK and USA slapped 25% tariffs on EU cars, the EU would collapse. Germany would go into a depression straight away and spread throughout the rest of the continent within weeks.

Why would the UK and US do that simultaneously?

Strazdas

Listening in to British media and most analysts think that Johnson will secure a "bare bones" FTA that includes goods but excludes services. Few, if any, believe there will be any sort of comprehensive trade agreement.

Jizique

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would the UK and US do that simultaneously?

In fairness, most of the German cars sold in the US are built there, but this chap can’t be expected to know that

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Listening in to British media and most analysts think that Johnson will secure a "bare bones" FTA that includes goods but excludes services. Few, if any, believe there will be any sort of comprehensive trade agreement.

Certainly not if the UK intends to be a competitor on the EU's doorstep.

brickster69

Nody wrote: »

US would be met with tariffs on other products as counter as they have already been told which all target Republican states such as Bourbon whisky etc. (and this is why Trump has still not raised any tariffs after all his grumblings about it). .

Bit late on that. EU already done it.

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2018/06/eus-25-bourbon-tariff-comes-into-force/

Professor Moriarty

Jizique wrote: »

In fairness, most of the German cars sold in the US are built there, but this chap can’t be expected to know that

Indeed. Maybe Brickster knows about some secret deal between the UK and US where they will apply the same 25% tariffs at the same time.

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

Bit late on that. EU already done it.

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2018/06/eus-25-bourbon-tariff-comes-into-force/

And you appear to miss that the list of imported products is a lot longer than purely the aluminum tariffs. They also have another table for example for the Boeing tariffs for state aid etc. This is the part you appear to fail to grasp; EU is big enough to stand up to the US and slap tariffs on them as needed; unlike the UK who'll get to roll over and play dead if they tried the same thing.

Jizique

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. Maybe Brickster knows about some secret deal between the UK and US where they will apply the same 25% tariffs at the same time.

Indeed x 2 as all the SUVs BMW and most of the Merc SUVs sold in the U.K. are US produced, and that is the growing segments

brickster69

Jizique wrote: »

In fairness, most of the German cars sold in the US are built there, but this chap can’t be expected to know that

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-germany-cars-factbox/factbox-german-exposure-to-u-s-tariffs-on-european-car-imports-idUSKCN1QB2H1

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-germany-cars-factbox/factbox-german-exposure-to-u-s-tariffs-on-european-car-imports-idUSKCN1QB2H1

From the article:

German companies built 750,000 luxury cars at U.S. plants

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-germany-cars-factbox/factbox-german-exposure-to-u-s-tariffs-on-european-car-imports-idUSKCN1QB2H1

Wow, you managed a whole google search. Now read the article, actually understand what it tells you and tell us how it applies to your argument please that it would collapse the companies (as a hint China is a bigger market for them than USA). Oh and do note the part about US made cars and plants etc. that would be hit as part of the counter tariffs EU would put up (who could have known that car manufacturing these days is a global logistic chain rather than all local; not like it's been pointed out for the last three years or something due to the issues Brexit will cause).

As for next time I'd recommend you actually start with the google search, get the facts rather than starting the search once you're challenged on your argument instead; makes conversation flow a lot easier that way.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Certainly not if the UK intends to be a competitor on the EU's doorstep.

Johnson's talk of a wonderful trade deal "with our European friends" seems to be just propaganda aimed at the masses. Most commentators don't believe it, not even ones that are sympathetic to Johnson.

brickster69

Nody wrote: »

And you appear to miss that the list of imported products is a lot longer than purely the aluminum tariffs. They also have another table for example for the Boeing tariffs for state aid etc. This is the part you appear to fail to grasp; EU is big enough to stand up to the US and slap tariffs on them as needed; unlike the UK who'll get to roll over and play dead if they tried the same thing.

Nody, the EU have not won the case against Boeing. The US has against Airbus and been awarded what it can gain compensation for.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/ustr-weighing-100percent-tariffs-on-new-eu-products-including-whiskies.html

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

Nody, the EU have not won the case against Boeing. The US has against Airbus and been awarded what it can gain compensation for.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/ustr-weighing-100percent-tariffs-on-new-eu-products-including-whiskies.html

Brickster brickster brickster, can you stay on a topic long enough to actually respond to factual mistakes you're making before moving on to the next one? We're still waiting on your facts to back up your claim about USA and UK putting 25% tariffs on cars would bankrupt in two weeks all German manufacturers. So far all you've done is provide a link that does not back up your claim without providing any comments on the link (which also happens to be top 3 links in google on the topic showing you did not even bother to have facts available before making the claim).

So, let's start with this and have you answer how and why.

As for Boeing losing in WTO, it will happen don't worry but the point of that was simply to show that EU has multiple lists with multiple products to hit as required against the USA. It is not relevant to your answering the challenge to your own statement on German car manufacturing. Hence go ahead and answer that one.

A Dub in Glasgo

Ex SNP MEP Alyn Smith gave his maiden speech today in WM just after the Brexit bill was passed

https://twitter.com/pilaraymara/status/1208002433479299072

brickster69

Nody wrote: »

Brickster brickster brickster, can you stay on a topic long enough to actually respond to factual mistakes you're making before moving on to the next one? We're still waiting on your facts to back up your claim about USA and UK putting 25% tariffs on cars would bankrupt in two weeks all German manufacturers.

I never mentioned all German manufacturers would be bankrupt at all. However any effects on the German car industry alone based on 10% tariffs can be seen here.

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Johnson's talk of a wonderful trade deal "with our European friends" seems to be just propaganda aimed at the masses. Most commentators don't believe it, not even ones that are sympathetic to Johnson.

There is no reason why the EU should offer Johnson a wonderful trade deal. Firstly, the EU doesn't see Britain as a friend. Secondly, the EU cannot allow Britain to be seen to be better off outside the EU than inside. Thirdly, Britain's economy is a fraction of the EU's economy so power lies with the EU. Fourthly, there isn't enough time to negotiate a wonderful trade deal because of Johnson's new red line. The truth is that Johnson does a sudden volte face or they crash out.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

Listening in to British media and most analysts think that Johnson will secure a "bare bones" FTA that includes goods but excludes services...

Not much meat on bare bones, I think ?

The EU will accept UK financial institutions working into the EU27 for some time after January 2021. But when it stops - lots of financing will move to within the EU27 - e.g. Amsterdam, Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris.

Lars

looksee

brickster69 wrote: »

I never mentioned all German manufacturers would be bankrupt at all. However any effects on the German car industry alone based on 10% tariffs can be seen here.

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

No, what you said was even more dramatic:

Ok , i will answer it. If the UK and USA slapped 25% tariffs on EU cars, the EU would collapse. Germany would go into a depression straight away and spread throughout the rest of the continent within weeks.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is no reason why the EU should offer Johnson a wonderful trade deal. Firstly, the EU doesn't see Britain as a friend. Secondly, the EU cannot allow Britain to be seen to be better off outside the EU than inside. Thirdly, Britain's economy is a fraction of the EU's economy so power lies with the EU. Fourthly, there isn't enough time to negotiate a wonderful trade deal because of Johnson's new red line. The truth is that Johnson does a sudden volte face or they crash out.

Not quite. A hard Brexit damages the EU as well. Taking out a chunk of the European economy and relocating it to the EU27 will be painful for them as well.

The best outcome for both sides is remain. However, that option is now dead for the next few years at the very least so that leaves an FTA. All the EU really have to do is to stick to their principles. The UK cannot expect á la carte access to the single market. It ponies up and abides by the same rules as everyone else. This means the four freedoms, EU regulations sans say in aforementioned regulations and abding by the rulings of the ECJ. Johnson can of course negotiate and indeed, this has been done by other countries. Norway for instance is not included in the single market for fishing and oil if I'm not mistaken.

Also, the single market was conceived for coal and steel. As time went on, its remit expanded, as did the European Coal and Steel Community to the EEC and finally, the EU. However, the single market was, and still is built for goods and labour rather than services which are constituting an ever increasing share of the global economy.

Where this ties into Brexit is that the Conservatives have traditionally been the European party who have pushed hardest for enhancing and completing the single market. Without their influence, of the influence of a centrist Labour party there may not be the impetus to continue especially given the climate crisis and economic stagnation afflicting the EU.

It's likely that the EU will want to minimise disruption up to the point where the Conservative party stick to outrageous demands. The EU has shown itself to be highly adept at negotiating. The UK has not. They will likely offer the status quo, perhaps with a few token opt outs for the Brexiters. Johnson has ordered officials to stop referring to Brexit after the end of next month (Source). Precedent dictates that Johnson will cave if he runs things to the wire. The EU will get a consensus from the 27 members and offer Johnson a deal. The UK will accept it or face economic ruination. Johnson will accept, with some theatrics and hope the public are fed up of the whole affair such that they ignore the bleatings of the ERG and Farage. He may be right.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is no reason why the EU should offer Johnson a wonderful trade deal. Firstly, the EU doesn't see Britain as a friend. Secondly, the EU cannot allow Britain to be seen to be better off outside the EU than inside. Thirdly, Britain's economy is a fraction of the EU's economy so power lies with the EU. Fourthly, there isn't enough time to negotiate a wonderful trade deal because of Johnson's new red line. The truth is that Johnson does a sudden volte face or they crash out.

But the "bare bones" deal may be the real aim. Talk of a comprehensive trade deal may well be a bluff and he is secretly planning to rush through a skimpy deal for goods, minus services. He can't admit this in public of course.

Strazdas

reslfj wrote: »

Not much meat on bare bones, I think ?

The EU will accept UK financial institutions working into the EU27 for some time after January 2021. But when it stops - lots of financing will move to within the EU27 - e.g. Amsterdam, Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris.

Lars

One would have thought a bargain basement trade deal, minus services, would be pretty disastrous for the City of London.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

But the "bare bones" deal may be the real aim. Talk of a comprehensive trade deal may well be a bluff and he is secretly planning to rush through a skimpy deal for goods, minus services. He can't admit this in public of course.

Well, a Canada minus deal, as he called it, would be tantamount to crashing out. No CU, no SM and, crucially, no regulatory alignment is going to hammer the UK economy. Perhaps the plan is for Britain to become a capitalist's paradise free of regulation and draining the EU's economy. But I'm pretty sure the EU will have a plan for that. The choice now is binary. A crappy deal that torpedoes the UK's economy so that it isn't a threat to the EU and is an example to other wannabe Exiteer countries or they crash out. Or Johnson does a volte-face and it's a soft Brexit.

reslfj

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Believe it or not, the EU isn't really large enough to be a standard setter in the globalised world. ...

EU try to adopt existing standards where they makes sense and are available.

"United Nations Economic Commission for Europe" UNECE has been central in many standards for food and sorting food in order to facilitate trade.
Standard for food is very important for trust in the food quality by consumers
and will often increase the prices of the products to the farmers.

The bendy cucumber (which has morphed into the straight banana in the UK Brexit debate) - is an example of an UNECE standard for sorting cucumbers. It was much supported by business, both sellers and buyers.

The EU adopted the standard, but was ridiculed by some EU sceptical people.

This standard is no longer part of EU trade rules - removed for purely public political reasons.

But cucumber growers/sellers and supermarkets/buyers continue to use the UNECE standard for cucumbers when trading, both within the EU and from 3. countries into the EU.

Such open standards used in or supported by the EU are often adapted by large groups of countries also outside the EU - and the EU kind of sets standards.

Lars

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trade/agr/standard/standard/fresh/FFV-Std/English/15_Cucumbers.pdf

Looks like the Polish political activities are going to be troubling the EU over the next few months. Having (soon to) losing the UK as a member, would they be willing to sanction or even eject a member for ignoring EU rules?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50874320
Poland has approved a controversial law which makes it easier to dismiss judges critical of the governing party's judicial reforms.
The legislation passed by 233 votes to 205 in the lower house of parliament in Warsaw on Friday.
It came just hours after the European Commission urged Poland to reconsider the proposed changes.
Demonstrators rallied in their thousands across Poland earlier this month to protest against the law.
On Wednesday, the country's Supreme Court warned that Poland could be forced to leave the EU over its reforms.

reslfj

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Not quite. A hard Brexit damages the EU as well. Taking out a chunk of the European economy and relocating it to the EU27 will be painful for them as well.

The EU will not be much harmed. A few EU27 members - ireland, dk, ge, nl, be and fr - and some sectors - fishing, farming and some industrial companies - but except maybe Ireland below 1% GDP.
The UK will be hit an order of magnitude harder - losing all trade deals but the Faeroe Islands and a few more. In a no deal/hard Brexit the UK will see the export of meat (lamb, beef), much of the fish export and the auto industry vaporise.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Norway for instance is not included in the single market for fishing and oil if I'm not mistaken.

Norway is not included in the CU nor in the SM for fish, agriculture and other food products. Norway has agreements for exporting fish into the EU, but sometimes our Danish import of Norwegian Salmon has been stopped for some length of time (quotas, I guess, but haven't checked)

Oil and gas (and electricity) seems to be a little outside the current FoM battle zone.
Germany imports Russian gas, but the EU forced Germany to share the gas with other member states (in Eastern Europe) iirc.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

However, the single market was, and still is built for goods and labour rather than services which are constituting an ever increasing share of the global economy.

The second of the four freedoms is services. This is still under development, but it's the basis for selling and delivering financial services across borders e.g. insurance and banking from London the the other EU members.

Some services are genuinely of own value e.g. expert banking or insurance. But some are just another way of selling inexpensive workforce across borders.
The EU has not long ago agreed on much stricter rules for such situations.

Lars

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, a Canada minus deal, as he called it, would be tantamount to crashing out. No CU, no SM and, crucially, no regulatory alignment is going to hammer the UK economy. Perhaps the plan is for Britain to become a capitalist's paradise free of regulation and draining the EU's economy. But I'm pretty sure the EU will have a plan for that. The choice now is binary. A crappy deal that torpedoes the UK's economy so that it isn't a threat to the EU and is an example to other wannabe Exiteer countries or they crash out. Or Johnson does a volte-face and it's a soft Brexit.

Excellent article from Deutsche Welle's senior Brussels correspondent, Barbara Wesel. She reckons No Deal is Johnson's end game and anything he says to distract from this is hot air and empty rhetoric :

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-uk-on-course-for-a-hard-brexit/a-51757381

LuckyLloyd

brickster69 wrote: »

Ok , i will answer it. If the UK and USA slapped 25% tariffs on EU cars, the EU would collapse. Germany would go into a depression straight away and spread throughout the rest of the continent within weeks.

The levels of pure fairytale delusion the Brexit faithful hold never cease to amaze me.

10000maniacs

listermint wrote: »

Nothing. They'll still buy them.

Unless of course your expecting them to go all Cuba....

Is this the silly ideas we can expect. More of the same please. It really shines a beacon on the level of thinking we've got around this.

They won't go all "Cuba" but more "East Germany" style.
In a few short years England/Wales will be on its knees but will still need cars. Expect Johnson to legislate for English manufacturing of a very cheap version of one of those electrical hybrid cars and from there we would see a sad pathetic mass production Trabant 601 situation developing. Stoke will become the next Saxony.