Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

I am sure many people are waiting to see when Johnson hits a wall and hownhe will possibly pivot to get out of it as he is promising so much that is unrealistic.

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1208018336371658752?s=20

So the EU is warning the UK the deal they could have in 6 months will be even less than the Canada deal. Canada could have less tariffs with the EU than the UK.

stefanovich

Enzokk wrote: »

I am sure many people are waiting to see when Johnson hits a wall and hownhe will possibly pivot to get out of it as he is promising so much that is unrealistic.

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1208018336371658752?s=20

So the EU is warning the UK the deal they could have in 6 months will be even less than the Canada deal. Canada could have less tariffs with the EU than the UK.

The bureaucrats in Brussels may need to skip their 3 hour lunches and do some work.

This thread is pure delusion. Boris was never going to get a majority. Now he is never going to get a trade deal.

listermint

stefanovich wrote: »

The bureaucrats in Brussels may need to skip their 3 hour lunches and do some work.

This thread is pure delusion. Boris was never going to get a majority. Now he is never going to get a trade deal.

No one here said Boris won't get a majority there was a whole other thread on it.


Anything else to add other than the usual baseless hyperbole ?


Have you even read the thread or just drop in time to time to drop off one splash opinion

A Dub in Glasgo

stefanovich wrote: »

The bureaucrats in Brussels may need to skip their 3 hour lunches and do some work.

.

Oh they are going to do their work alright

McGiver

10000maniacs wrote:

They won't go all "Cuba" but more "East Germany" style. In a few short years England/Wales will be on its knees but will still need cars. Expect Johnson to legislate for English manufacturing of a very cheap version of one of those electrical hybrid cars and from there we would see a sad pathetic mass production Trabant 601 situation developing. Stoke will become the next Saxony.

Don't think these buffoons are capable of implementing such policy. They are hopeless. It's all waffle, bluster, or delusional talk. Some are theoretical ideologues (which is somewhat better than buffoonery and delusions) but it's very unlikely they have any talent to get anything actually done on the ground.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

I am sure many people are waiting to see when Johnson hits a wall and hownhe will possibly pivot to get out of it as he is promising so much that is unrealistic.

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1208018336371658752?s=20

So the EU is warning the UK the deal they could have in 6 months will be even less than the Canada deal. Canada could have less tariffs with the EU than the UK.

Even one of the Telegraph's pro-Brexit columnists wrote yesterday that an FTA without tariffs is an impossibility in 6 months and tariffs are a certainty.

Johnson seems to be coming out with a lot of spin, deliberately designed to mislead.

10000maniacs

McGiver wrote: »

Don't think these buffoons are capable of implementing such policy. They are hopeless. It's all waffle, bluster, or delusional talk. Some are theoretical ideologues (which is somewhat better than buffoonery and delusions) but it's very unlikely they have any talent to get anything actually done on the ground.

I forgot about the buffoonery. Yeah, that Trabant style framework smells too much like a socialists wet dream to be in any way palatable to Johnson's regime.
You will see a lot of reworked Cortinas and Golfs on the roads post 2020. Blighty war spirit kicking in.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Excellent article from Deutsche Welle's senior Brussels correspondent, Barbara Wesel. She reckons No Deal is Johnson's end game and anything he says to distract from this is hot air and empty rhetoric :

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-uk-on-course-for-a-hard-brexit/a-51757381

That's a damning and blunt article. Sadly, it's very hard to argue with anything she says.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a damning and blunt article. Sadly, it's very hard to argue with anything she says.

He's hiding in plain sight. A few platitudes about a 'wonderful free trade deal' and yet everything else he says indicates he wants a very hard Brexit and to seriously diverge from the EU.

First Up

Strazdas wrote:

He's hiding in plain sight. A few platitudes about a 'wonderful free trade deal' and yet everything else he says indicates he wants a very hard Brexit and to seriously diverge from the EU.

Well UK industry is giving it it to him in both ears and from both barrels that a hard Brexit would be catastrophic. I suspect he will huff and puff but will finally concede that reality wins over ideology.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

He's hiding in plain sight. A few platitudes about a 'wonderful free trade deal' and yet everything else he says indicates he wants a very hard Brexit and to seriously diverge from the EU.

Exactly - well described.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

Well UK industry is giving it it to him in both ears and from both barrels that a hard Brexit would be catastrophic. I suspect he will huff and puff but will finally concede that reality wins over ideology.

How will he do that? He's bringing in legislation that will ensure either he caves in publicly and humiliates himself or he forces a hard Brexit in 12 months.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

How will he do that? He's bringing in legislation that will ensure either he caves in publicly and humiliates himself or he forces a hard Brexit in 12 months.

The former and he'll try to charm his way through it.

There is no grand plan; it is seat of the pants stuff.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

The former and he'll try to charm his way through it.

There is no grand plan; it is seat of the pants stuff.

I hope you're right. A lot of hard right/Brexiteer Tory MPs will feel stabbed in the back if he does cave. Which is fine by me.

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Well UK industry is giving it it to him in both ears and from both barrels that a hard Brexit would be catastrophic. I suspect he will huff and puff but will finally concede that reality wins over ideology.

Some industry are, but far from all. With reduction of regulation, workers rights etc, many would be welcoming this.

Just think if Johnson removes the minimum holiday of 20 to be only 15. That's a massive saving in labour costs. Or H&S regulations, or environmental regulation. These are all significant extra costs to companies which outside the EU UK are free to discard.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Some industry are, but far from all. With reduction of regulation, workers rights etc, many would be welcoming this.

Not if they depend on the EU for customers or suppliers, or use EU trade agreements to trade elsewhere.

coastwatch

The people of the NE of England who gave Boris his majority want "Brexit Done", tomorrow wouldn't be soon enough.
They dont care about trade deals, customs checks, free movement, that's just detail that doesn't really matter to them, they want "out of EU", whatever the cost or consequences.

The EU skeptic Torries, Nigel Farrage, and others have managed to conflate the many reasons for all of the UK's social problems of past 40 years with membership of the EU. The message has been, "the EU is the reason everything has gone so bad. Fix that, and it will be like it was in the 1960's again". That's the real lie and deception of the people.

A Hard Brexit seems inevitable in that atmosphere and it will probably take another 40 years to acknowledge the damage.

Water John

Boris was the originator of much of that. It was he, writing from Brussels about regs on bendy bananas etc.
Those in the EU know he's a fraud.

Strazdas

coastwatch wrote: »

The people of the NE of England who gave Boris his majority want "Brexit Done", tomorrow wouldn't be soon enough.
They dont care about trade deals, customs checks, free movement, that's just detail that doesn't really matter to them, they want "out of EU", whatever the cost or consequences.

The EU skeptic Torries, Nigel Farrage, and others have managed to conflate the many reasons for all of the UK's social problems of past 40 years with membership of the EU. The message has been, "the EU is the reason everything has gone so bad. Fix that, and it will be like it was in the 1960's again". That's the real lie and deception of the people.

A Hard Brexit seems inevitable in that atmosphere and it will probably take another 40 years to acknowledge the damage.

100%. But they are also the ones that will be hit the hardest by Brexit (we've all seen the economic tables that show these areas will take a massive hit to GDP compared to more prosperous areas in England).

brickster69

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just think if Johnson removes the minimum holiday of 20 to be only 15. That's a massive saving in labour costs.

28 days in the Uk not 20. Higher than the Eu standards.

Irish Praetorian

brickster69 wrote: »

28 days in the Uk not 20. Higher than the Eu standards.

A misinterpretation I'm afraid; those 28 days are taken to constitute the 20 days of 'holiday time' (I.E. 4 weeks paid vacation assuming a standard working week of 5 days) and an additional 8 days which are Public/Bank holidays which employees can be given of but are not entitled to take off. In terms of EU countries the UK is fairly standard when it comes to the 4 weeks paid vacation, with a handful of countries offering 25, but most countries have more than 8 paid public holidays.

brickster69

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

A misinterpretation I'm afraid; those 28 days are taken to constitute the 20 days of 'holiday time' (I.E. 4 weeks paid vacation assuming a standard working week of 5 days) and an additional 8 days which are Public/Bank holidays which employees can be given of but are not entitled to take off. In terms of EU countries the UK is fairly standard when it comes to the 4 weeks paid vacation, with a handful of countries offering 25, but most countries have more than 8 paid public holidays.

So the UK does get 28 days not the 20 what the original poster mentioned ?

GM228

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

A misinterpretation I'm afraid; those 28 days are taken to constitute the 20 days of 'holiday time' (I.E. 4 weeks paid vacation assuming a standard working week of 5 days) and an additional 8 days which are Public/Bank holidays which employees can be given of but are not entitled to take off. In terms of EU countries the UK is fairly standard when it comes to the 4 weeks paid vacation, with a handful of countries offering 25, but most countries have more than 8 paid public holidays.

No, that is incorrect, the statutory minimum annual leave in the UK is 5.6 weeks (it increased from 4 to 5.6 in 2009), public holidays have nothing to do with statutory leave in the UK.

The UK never legislated for working time options in relation to public holidays like we did in Ireland.

brickster69 wrote: »

So the UK does get 28 days not the 20 what the original poster mentioned ?

Yes it's 28 days.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

100%. But they are also the ones that will be hit the hardest by Brexit (we've all seen the economic tables that show these areas will take a massive hit to GDP compared to more prosperous areas in England).

This one by HMG (from TM's time as PM) ?



Note these bars a central estimates and are as such statistical figures. The can and will fluctuate with e.g. EU and word economy. IIRC they do not take trade in services much into account - any comments here?

I think, as time has passed, London has become more vulnerable than show in this graph.
More financial and other institutions have had time to create alternative business locations within the EU27.

More EU27 institutions are now ready to expand and take over business from the UK and in particular from London.

When procedures and requirement change e.g. for Euro clearing, or adapting to the new EU banking union rules and new capacity is online and working, moving activity into an EU27 based/located institution will mostly be a matter of installing some more computer capacity and allow some extra people to be hired (might even be skilled people from London with a work visa).

You can easily move to and live in Amsterdam, Frankfurt or Paris with English as your only language.

Lars

Irish Praetorian

brickster69 wrote: »

So the UK does get 28 days not the 20 what the original poster mentioned ?

The total should be 28 days which can constitute 20 Vacation Days and 8 Public Holidays which may or may not, depending on the contract of employment, be regarded as part of a 28 day entitlement. The distinction is in the hands of the employer.

GM228 wrote: »

No, that is incorrect, the statutory minimum annual leave in the UK is 5.6 weeks (it increased from 4 to 5.6 in 2009), public holidays have nothing to do with statutory leave in the UK.

The UK never legislated for working time options in relation to public holidays like we did in Ireland.

I'm getting my source for this claim from the UK Gov website here; https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights

Specifically the section on public holidays which states;

"Bank or public holidays do not have to be given as paid leave.

An employer can choose to include bank holidays as part of a worker’s statutory annual leave."

Now I believe the distinction arises from the wording of employment contracts, so if someone says 'statutory entitlements' then they are entitled to 28 days of which 8 may be allocated to Bank Holidays. If on the other hand an employer gives 'statutory entitlements PLUS Bank Holidays' then an employee has 28 days vacation to use up and their discretion and 8 Bank Holidays.

Professor Moriarty

reslfj wrote: »

This one by HMG (from TM's time as PM) ?



Note these bars a central estimates and are as such statistical figures. The can and will fluctuate with e.g. EU and word economy. IIRC they do not take trade in services much into account - any comments here?

I think, as time has passed, London has become more vulnerable than show in this graph.
More financial and other institutions have had time to create alternative business locations within the EU27.

More EU27 institutions are now ready to expand and take over business from the UK and in particular from London.

When procedures and requirement change e.g. for Euro clearing, or adapting to the new EU banking union rules and new capacity is online and working, moving activity into an EU27 based/located institution will mostly be a matter of installing some more computer capacity and allow some extra people to be hired (might even be skilled people from London with a work visa).

You can easily move to and live in Amsterdam, Frankfurt or Paris with English as your only language.

Lars

Ironically, the WTO bar for English regions in those charts is very similar to Labour vote losses in those regions.

GM228

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

The total should be 28 days which can constitute 20 Vacation Days and 8 Public Holidays which may or may not, depending on the contract of employment, be regarded as part of a 28 day entitlement. The distinction is in the hands of the employer.



I'm getting my source for this claim from the UK Gov website here; https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights

Specifically the section on public holidays which states;

"Bank or public holidays do not have to be given as paid leave.

An employer can choose to include bank holidays as part of a worker’s statutory annual leave."

Now I believe the distinction arises from the wording of employment contracts, so if someone says 'statutory entitlements' then they are entitled to 28 days of which 8 may be allocated to Bank Holidays. If on the other hand an employer gives 'statutory entitlements PLUS Bank Holidays' then an employee has 28 days vacation to use up and their discretion and 8 Bank Holidays.

The statutory minimum in the UK is 28 days, public holidays have nothing to do with it, yes an employer can decide to include them within the 28 days if they wish (they can decide when the employee takes any of their days), however, public holidays in the UK have no special status in relation to working time like in Ireland where an employer must give you an extra A/L day or extra day pay etc.

It's also worth noting that Northern Ireland has 10 public holidays as opposed to 8 in the rest of the UK and they still have a statutory minimum of 28 days.

Employees can't just take 20 days at their discretion, the times when an employee takes any or all of their 28 days can be dictated by their employer once provided with notice of such.

A Dub in Glasgo

Most folk I know who do not work in the Rail industry get 20 days annual leave plus 8 days B&P (I get 30 days AL plus 8 days B&P giving a total of 38 days )

Irish Praetorian

GM228 wrote: »

The statutory minimum in the UK is 28 days, public holidays have nothing to do with it, yes an employer can decide to include them within the 28 days if they wish (they can decide when the employee takes any of their days), however, public holidays in the UK have no special status in relation to working time like in Ireland where an employer must give you an extra A/L day or extra day pay etc.

It's also worth noting that Northern Ireland has 10 public holidays as opposed to 8 in the rest of the UK and they still have a statutory minimum of 28 days.

Employees can't just take 20 days at their discretion, the times when an employee takes any or all of their 28 days can be dictated by their employer once provided with notice of such.

Knew I was missing something, you indeed have it right about the differing treatment of Bank or Public holidays.

brickster69

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Most folk I know who do not work in the Rail industry get 20 days annual leave plus 8 days B&P (I get 30 days AL plus 8 days B&P giving a total of 38 days )

Yes, it is quite normal for some companies to give the 8 extra days paid as well or double pay if you work them.