Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

liamtech

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Corbyn is pushing safe guarding businesses, and people work for businesses. - [1] Labour will do okay in my opinion. Tories in Brexit bubble.
GE will show what the people want, - [2] Lib Dems will do very well.

I dont mean to criticize but these two outcomes are not compatible with one another -

I have said it before, Brexit has created a new cleavage in UK politics - instead of left v Right - its leave V Remain

The fact is i am not at all optimistic for the remain faction - and i say that assuming we all ignore the 'Glorious Leaders' position of renegotiating a sensible brexit, and just treat labor as remain

Leavers will predominantly vote Tory - the idea of the Brexit Party some how splitting the Brexit vote is a fantasy folks - it wont happen - brexit party will attack Labor Leave constituencies, especially those where the sitting Labor MP is a remainer

Remainers will split between Labor, and the Lib Dems - the split is on the remain side - and corbyn is responsible for this

Again im happy to discuss - i posted about this situation a week ago explaining my opinion in a more detailed way -

This is all rather depressing but when a Labor MP came out an hour ago, parotting the manifesto that Che Guevara Jeremy has decided on - i felt a revulsion for this whole thing- Labor voters will split into

• Che Guevara Corbyn Loyalists who will support him no matter what
• Those who realise he is a farce, and at heart, represents the Labor Equivalent of Bill Cash - he is Hard Eurosceptic - and they will vote for the Lib Dems

That splits the remain vote - period - its a disaster - Jeremy is putting BJ into No 10 with a majority

EDIT - I wanna restate for the record - im a leftie - i used to believe in Corbyn, and hoped his proper left policies would influence other left wing movements - I also hoped he was a POLITICIAN who would keep his hatred of the EU in the bag, and behave sensibly - he didnt

The best thing for labor, tonight, would be for Corbyn to walk out of the HOC, and under a bus - im sorry, il accept a warning for that but i dont care - its a disaster

54and56

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Corbyn is pushing safe guarding businesses, and people work for businesses. Labour will do okay in my opinion. Tories in Brexit bubble.
GE will show what the people want, Lib Dems will do very well.

My tuppence worth (which I'd better bookmark and come back to on Dec 13th) is that the UK is more polarised than ever and we're going to see that in the GE result.

Tories - Wipe-out more or less in Scotland and in remain leaning seats in the south but will pick up Leave voting labour seats in the north unless the Brexit party spoil the Leave vote in those seats.

Labour - Have managed to tie themselves in knots over Brexit. Corbyn is toxic and going all in on policies like banning private schools is waaaayyyy to communist to attract the middle of the road voters they need. Corbyn is a modern day Michael Foot in terms of electoral appeal. He may have principled positions but a GE is a glorified popularity contest where the key messages need to be succinct and populist. "Get Brexit Done" Vs "We're going to ask for another 6 month extension to negotiate yet another deal which we'll then put to the people in a confirmatory referendum but not necessarily support ourselves if we think staying in the EU would be better". Nice and snappy eh? Labour are going to get absolutely hammered and they know it. They've been dragged kicking and screaming to agree to an election and even their own MP's weren't very enthusiastic when Corbyn made his speech. The Tories and/or the Brexit party will snatch their northern Leave voting constituencies while the Lib Dems will hoover up many of the remain leaning and middle class left (but private school attending) southern seats.

Lib Dems - Will do well in remain leaning seats but Jo Swinson could lose her seat.

SNP - Ian Blackford has done a massive job putting Scotlands case forward day after day and put up with a tsunami of abuse from English Tory MP's over the last 12 months or more which won't be lost on Scottish voters. They could sweep the boards and get a result which would make it impossible for any new govt to ignore their demand for Indy Ref #2.

The Brexit Party - BoJo has reclaimed many of the "lost" Tories thus nipping the Brexit party in the bud. They'll probably snatch a few Labour leave seats where the Tory offer is weak and/or where Labour voters would never vote Tory but can somehow justify voting Brexit Party "just the once" so to speak.

DUP - Will do well to keep their 10 MP's. They were prepared to shaft NI economically to secure a pure ideological Brexit and strengthening of the Union by erecting north south barriers to trade thus weakening the connection to RoI but completely mis-judged BoJo and were made to look like the useful fools they are when he and his ERG mates including JRM unapologetically threw them under the bus or as Andrew Bridgen said it's not that the ERG threw them under the bus the DUP just didn't get on the ERG bus this time Ideally DUP would lose 2-3 MP's but when push comes to shove they have a fairly robust base who will forgive anything as they really can't bring themselves to vote for anything less than hardcore Unionism.

Overall?

Labour the big losers, Lib Dems and SNP the big winners. Tory gains from Labour cancelled out by losses to Lib Dems so more or less standstill, not enough for a majority.

Hung parliament with the Lib Dems under new leader Sir Ed Davey who becomes a king maker and refuses to back the WAB.

More parliamentary chaos ensues, another extension is sought for a referendum on the BoJo deal Vs remain.

Remain wins and this thread is finally closed.

retalivity

Any chance the shinners and the sdlp and/or alliance come to a pact to get more remainers taking seats from NI?

liamtech

54and56 wrote: »

SNP - Ian Blackford has done a massive job putting Scotlands case forward day after day and put up with a tsunami of abuse from English Tory MP's over the last 12 months or more which won't be lost on Scottish voters. They could sweep the boards and get a result which would make it impossible for any new govt to ignore their demand for Indy Ref #2.

I agree with everything u said but this in particular - the sad fact is the best leader in the HOC today is a man who doesnt want to be PM of the UK

Good luck to him - genuine politician - Scotland the brave

The Brexit party are a bit of an unknown as far as whether they will put up candidates in Tory constituaries that have sitting MPs who oppose Brexit.


I have seen a few posts on facebook that states that they will not put up candidates against pro-Brexit MPs, to avoid diluting the possibility of a pro-Brexit government.

beggars_bush

retalivity wrote: »

Any chance the shinners and the sdlp and/or alliance come to a pact to get more remainers taking seats from NI?

Not a chance

Imreoir2

liamtech wrote: »

That splits the remain vote - period - its a disaster - Jeremy is putting BJ into No 10 with a majority

This may be true, elections are strange things and really anything could happen. There were plenty of reasonable people predicting much the same in 2017 and yet when it came to it, Labours policies found more traction amomg the electorate than many expected.

The bigger issue for me though is what is best for us here in Ireland. As much as natural inclination and politcal sympathy would put me against Johnson and all he stands for, I think our interest is served best by a Conservative majortity that can get a deal through and move the process forward.

Further deadlock is not going to do anything to stop Brexit eventually happening and the greater the delay the more damage that is done. The political crisis in the UK will eventually have to be delt with, a process which the UK itself may not survive as the nature of this crisis has correctly been identified by many commentators as an excercise in English nationalism that shows no prospect of going away.

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC 1 NI have a Spotlight debate about to start. Senator Neale Richmond is on, as is the former UUP leader Mike Nesbitt.

woejus

liamtech wrote: »

The best thing for labor, tonight, would be for Corbyn to walk out of the HOC, and under a bus - im sorry, il accept a warning for that but i dont care - its a disaster

Just fix your spellchecker to spell Labour correctly, all will be forgiven :pac:

liamtech

woejus wrote: »

Just fix your spellchecker to spell Labour correctly, all will be forgiven :pac:

Thank you for making me laugh!!!!! lol for me its always Labor party - Labour is working hard - but i take your comment in the spirit of the night thats in it

:pac:

Spanish Eyes

The Brexit Party remind me of soccer hooligans somehow. But they still may have some supporters. OK so. Just my opinion.

Rjd2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It would be funny if she lost her seat

The danger at times for Swinson she can come across as a little smug. She is obviously better than the gruesome twosome leading the main parties but still...

What are the odds that she holds that seat? 60/40 in her favor?

L1011

liamtech wrote: »

Thank you for making me laugh!!!!! lol for me its always Labor party - Labour is working hard - but i take your comment in the spirit of the night thats in it

:pac:

Labor is Australia - only a few of the odd US Democrat affiliates like Minnesotas Democrat-Farmer-Labor use that spelling elsewhere in the English speaking world. Even NZ uses the u!

L1011

Rjd2 wrote: »

The danger at times for Swinson she can come across as a little smug. She is obviously better than the gruesome twosome leading the main parties but still...

What are the odds that she holds that seat? 60/40 in her favor?

I'm fairly sure she's going to lose it - but I suspect she sees it as a challenge to prove herself on like Salmond considering Gordon to be nearly impossible to get - although he got it during the landslide period and lost it again.

dublinman1990

A Lib Dem MP had said on Newsnight earlier on BBC Two that this GE on Dec 12th will become will be a "healing" election. Whether that position will stand the test of time until the final election result comes around is another thing to aware of on the day itself. It may produce something that could be a political disaster for the UK with another hung parliament or it could be, as I hate saying this, a big triumph incoming for the Tories. Either way the day itself will become a fascinating watch for a political nerd like myself.

Professor Moriarty

dublinman1990 wrote: »

A Lib Dem MP has just said on Newsnight that this election will be a "healing" election. Whether that position will stand the test of being like that in the final election result is another thing that may or may not come to fruition on the day itself.

Whatever way this election turns out, it most certainly will not be healing.

A Dub in Glasgo

Sturgeon looking forward to the election campaign

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1189299732763627523

Rjd2

Nody wrote: »

Calling it now; no party with majority and Tories end up making another deal with one of the following SNP/Libs/DUP/Brexit party. I also expect five or more MPs in the Tory party to vote against Boris deal and at least 3 in Labour to vote for it.

SNP would never get into power with Boris Johnson. Nicola will want a promise of a referendum from Boris and that's a non starter.

Lib Dems?

No Brexit then yeah I think Swinson would be fine with that, but alas no Brexit, those parties have very different views on Brexit to say the least.

I dunno would Boris accept a referendum for their support?

The Lib Dems has become a refuge for many in the two main parties who think Boris and Corbyn are to extreme, Swinson would want something very serious to back either men.

Headshot

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Sturgeon looking forward to the election campaign

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1189299732763627523

The funny thing is the less seen of BJ in the Scotland the better chance the Conservatives have but make no bones about it but Sturgeon would destroy BJ.

Popeleo

Rjd2 wrote: »

The danger at times for Swinson she can come across as a little smug. She is obviously better than the gruesome twosome leading the main parties but still...

What are the odds that she holds that seat? 60/40 in her favor?

I think she should consider parachuting herself at the last minute into Uxbridge and South Ruislip or whatever constituency that Boris ends up contesting.
If you're going to go down, go down fighting. And if she won

MBSnr

Enzokk wrote: »

So if the motion passes now, see no reason why it wouldn't, then it is an election on the 12th. That would leave enough time for the government to bring back the WAB for a vote even though they have said they wouldn't. But also it will leave enough time for the House to elect a new speaker so this divided House will get to choose who follows Bercow.

Exactly what I read as the reason for trying to get the vote on the 9th by the opposition. I'm not sure I understand why it didn't pass, if it was such an important issue to avoid the Gov being sneaky and for the speaker.

Plenty of "no vote recorded" below as well.
https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/733#notrecorded

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Whatever way this election turns out, it most certainly will not be healing.

Unless, it is yet another twist like the last 3 years have presented where Labour somehow become coherent, Lib Dems and SNP have storming performances, a new government with a confidence and supply pact is enacted, arranges a 2nd referendum with two choices, stay in, or negotiated deal and the electorate choose to stay in. Jacob, Boris, Mark, Nigel and Kermit all collectively scream blue murder but in ever decreasing volumes before eventually petering out to a whimper.

Ah, I can only wish.

A Dub in Glasgo

Rjd2 wrote: »

The danger at times for Swinson she can come across as a little smug. She is obviously better than the gruesome twosome leading the main parties but still...

What are the odds that she holds that seat? 60/40 in her favor?

I think she will keep it as the higher profile should push her through coupled with the fact that the media have her in their sights as the unionist poster girl after the other one decided to 'spend more time with her family' and then puts her snout in the trough and then decides the heat is too much

Strazdas

L1011 wrote: »

I'm fairly sure she's going to lose it - but I suspect she sees it as a challenge to prove herself on like Salmond considering Gordon to be nearly impossible to get - although he got it during the landslide period and lost it again.

I think she'll hold it. The only way she'll lose it is if the Lib Dems have a poor enough election. The party doing very well in a GE and she losing her seat would be rather odd (to put it mildly).

A Dub in Glasgo

Strazdas wrote: »

The party doing very well in a GE and she losing her seat would be rather odd (to put it mildly).

The GE in Scotland is fought on different grounds to England and the Lib Dems doing well in England does not mean she is out of the woods in her own constituency

cameramonkey

L1011 wrote: »

I'm fairly sure she's going to lose it - but I suspect she sees it as a challenge to prove herself on like Salmond considering Gordon to be nearly impossible to get - although he got it during the landslide period and lost it again.

Have you any particular reason for your opinion that she lose the seat.

Strazdas

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The GE in Scotland is fought on different grounds to England and the Lib Dems doing well in England does not mean she is out of the woods in her own constituency

For sure, but party leaders losing their seat tends to mainly happen with parties who are struggling in the vote, not to ones that are increasing their seats.

Everything is geared to her doing well in her constituency - a new party leader and the party polling very well.

maebee

I've been watching Sky News all day and unless I've missed something there hasn't been a mention of the DUP. They are now most definitely yesterday's men/women. Since the announcement of the forthcoming election, Sky have interviewed representatives from the Cons, Lab. LDs, SNP and Plaid Cymru. It's so obvious that the DUP were an aberration. A week is a long time in politics indeed.

Kermit.de.frog

DUP likely to lose seats as well.

They went against popular opinion from their own farmers and business backers as well as the overall population which apparently is now 72% remain!

farmerval

Surely the huge question is the Brexit party.

They want a deal with the tories so that they might get a few MP's which would make them some way relevant, BoJo needs a deal with them, but is surely terrifed of making them relevant in the long term, they'll always nip at the Tories right flank.

Remember long after Brexit there'll still be plenty of racist xenephobic policies to be enact. e.g. Theresa May's lorries and signs, telling immigrants to go home etc etc.