Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

It doesn't have much to do with the negotiation team at all, or the leaders. Their hands are tied by what they think will or will not pass in dozens of places. The British government know this all too well having the Commons vote against its government's deals.

I don't think they do. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, coming out of the UK that leads one to think that they know who or what they're dealing with. In fact, the last three years have more or less confirmed that they really don't know what they're doing, and will have rings run around them by any other country they try to negotiate with.

The rest of the world now has two great examples of how to beat the British: the EU as a whole, and the Republic of Ireland - bury your whatever hatchets are wielded at home, fix an objective, and let the English fight amongst themselves until you get what you want.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

I don't think they do. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, coming out of the UK that leads one to think that they know who or what they're dealing with. In fact, the last three years have more or less confirmed that they really don't know what they're doing, and will have rings run around them by any other country they try to negotiate with.

I meant the EU's. I feel that there's a misunderstanding amongst Brexiteers that trade negotiations will work like the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations.. The idea that Johnson can strong arm a negotiation and the leaders of countries most affected. It's been the rhetoric since the election, and it makes no sense to me.

The EU's negotiating team will simply be trying to please all EU countries and regions. The UK can huff and puff but there's no one like Varadkar now they can target. The negotiation team can simply say "Yeah, we'll add that, but that makes it likely that Italy won't ratify. Since you can't extend, are you willing to take the risk?"

They're going to have to please countries far from the English Channel and Irish Sea.

Russman

Deleted User wrote: »

I meant the EU's. I feel that there's a misunderstanding amongst Brexiteers that trade negotiations will work like the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations.. The idea that Johnson can strong arm a negotiation and the leaders of countries most affected. It's been the rhetoric since the election, and it makes no sense to me.

The EU's negotiating team will simply be trying to please all EU countries and regions. The UK can huff and puff but there's no one like Varadkar now they can target. The negotiation team can simply say "Yeah, we'll add that, but that makes it likely that Italy won't ratify. Since you can't extend, are you willing to take the risk?"

They're going to have to please countries far from the English Channel and Irish Sea.

I think, in brutal terms, they won’t be pleasing anyone, they’ll be doing exactly as they’re told, if they want market access to the EU. Thing is, they might just get away with it too, leave voter Joe from Sunderland won’t care about the finer details of regulatory alignment or trade deals or the concessions the UK will make, as long as “Brexit gets done”. Resulting hardship will be blamed on anything and everything, uncertainty over Scotland, uncertainty over NI, the French being vindictive, remainers, Trump, May, whatever. If all else fails Boris will say we always knew things would get worse before they get better.

KildareP

Deleted User wrote: »

Would I be right in saying that since a trade deal only has one shot of making it through all EU parliaments, numbering over 30, the UK will have to do a balancing act of playing hard but also playing it careful?

Like, if there's some fickle part of the deal that could have one regional government not ratify, wouldn't the UK need to kind of give away that part, or the whole thing could crash down into No Deal?

It's just so risky trying to get it to pass all of Europe in one go since an extension isn't available. It doesn't have much to do with the negotiation team at all, or the leaders. Their hands are tied by what they think will or will not pass in dozens of places. The British government know this all too well having the Commons vote against its government's deals.

Whenever the UK does not get its way they will simply scream about bullies and punishing from the EU. That’ll be enough to keep the public at bay. Has worked well against Bercow, the Supreme Court and their own houses of parliament.

How much milage they can expect to get from it though? It won’t upset the EU...

lawred2

Express at it's usual crap this morning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1220232/Brussels-chaos-Spain-Poland-EU-Brexit-Spaxit-Vox-ECJ-latest-news

Spain has done no such thing. Nor has Poland.

That whole piece of based on one tweet and one hashtag that trended for a little while in Spain.

At least the 'journalist' states about 2/3rd of the way down that Vox, the party in question, only the 3rd largest party, have not backed any sort of leave campaign.

But the Express knows well that the majority of their readership won't even get that far.

Bit cynical

CelticRambler wrote: »

GE2017 was not a Brexit referendum; GE2019 was not a Brexit referendum; to claim that Johnson has a "clear mandate" for Brexit is just not true - the question was not on the ballot paper.

Well of course what a particular election is about is always a matter of debate and for different people the election will be about different things. However in this particular election one particular issue did seem to be prominent and this prominence of one issue, and the extent to which it was prominent, is unusual in general elections.

McGiver

AllForIt wrote:

Btw, some posters on this thread would be better described as democracy supporters rather than Brexit supporters. It was right that remain was democratically denied a second referendum. Democracy isn't about getting what you want just cuz you demand it.

Au contraire.

Democracy is nothing like what you indicate - it is the right to criticise, the right to oppose, the right to campaign, the right to protest, the right to dissent, right to change mind, the right to change anything.

Democracy is not static, democracy is a process, and change is its key feature.

Brexiters, who are largely authoritarian in outlook, present an abomination of democracy, basically a static ochlocracy. A majoritarian, authoritarian, mob rule with no right to dissent, oppose or change. It's a totally warped version of democracy and it has nothing to do with it, in fact.

This largely stems from ignorance and culture - the English divisive confrontational political system where 40% of popular vote gives the party a constitutional majority and free ride to do whatever they want. In civilised European countries constitutional majority is 60% and can never be exercised by single party/administration but only by a wide consensus.

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

Express at it's usual crap this morning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1220232/Brussels-chaos-Spain-Poland-EU-Brexit-Spaxit-Vox-ECJ-latest-news

Spain has done no such thing. Nor has Poland.

That whole piece of based on one tweet and one hashtag that trended for a little while in Spain.

At least the 'journalist' states about 2/3rd of the way down that Vox, the party in question, only the 3rd largest party, have not backed any sort of leave campaign.

But the Express knows well that the majority of their readership won't even get that far.

That's odd. Comprehensive polling in October 2019 found that 84% of Poles have a favourable view of the EU. 66% of Spaniards have a favourable view. Incidentally, the EU is viewed favourably across the world with only Turkey having a majority with an unfavourable view of the EU.

KildareP

lawred2 wrote: »

Express at it's usual crap this morning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1220232/Brussels-chaos-Spain-Poland-EU-Brexit-Spaxit-Vox-ECJ-latest-news

Spain has done no such thing. Nor has Poland.

That whole piece of based on one tweet and one hashtag that trended for a little while in Spain.

At least the 'journalist' states about 2/3rd of the way down that Vox, the party in question, only the 3rd largest party, have not backed any sort of leave campaign.

But the Express knows well that the majority of their readership won't even get that far.

Let them at it.

Only setting themselves up for a greater shock when they realise it is rubbish.

McGiver

Just my few thoughts on couple things.

UK has not been negotiating in good faith and this will be only escalate under the current regime, it will get much worse. They cannot be trusted, their agreements with other parties have no value. They will renege whenever they feel like.

Once they are third country, the EU will have to be very aggressive, assertive and shrewd with them. Not punishing for leaving the EU, but punishing for their grand stupidity, leveraging as much as possible. I am convinced that any weakness or indecision on the EU side would be immediately used by the UK regime for their own benefit. The UK with its deregulation agenda will become a serious competitor and threat to the EU, this must not be taken lightly.
Deregulated tax haven, nuclear capable, of this size at the doorstep of the EU cannot be taken lightly. Also, politically, they will very likely start supporting all eurosceptic parties and think-tanks to destabilise the EU as much as possible to weaken us. This is a war of two ideologies - Anglo-Saxon ultra neoliberalism vs regulated centrism of the EU. Ireland is the closest and the most integrated with the UK and will get a lot of the fallout.

The hypothesis that Johnson is bluffing and will go for soft Brexit is totally wrong. There's no evidence or indication of that. Follow the money, look at the people around him. The oligarchs money are clearly on Singapore on Thames, there are huge fortunes to be made. It is going to be a very hard Brexit. We need to get ready for that, it's not going to be easy or nice. History shows a lot what to expect from the nasty English political class.

CelticRambler

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well of course what a particular election is about is always a matter of debate and for different people the election will be about different things. However in this particular election one particular issue did seem to be prominent and this prominence of one issue, and the extent to which it was prominent, is unusual in general elections.

D'you mean the 40 new hospitals and the 50000 (not quite so) new nurses? Because the topic of the NHS was a very prominent topic from start to finish. Or do you mean the small matter of alleged antisemitism in Labour?

Just because Sky branded it the "Brexit Election" didn't make it a Brexit referendum; and just because the Tories ran an intense, negative campaign (with a liberal sprinkling of lies, exaggerations and fake news) that happened to include a meaningless Brexit slogan doesn't retrospectively validate a question that wasn't asked.

So as things stand, the original Brexit referendum was run - and won - on the back of lies, exaggerations, unkeepable promises and dubious finance; having failed to keep their act together, the Remain alliance allowed themselves to be bounced into an unnecessary election; and a harder-right Tory party exploited a Brexit-weary population to free themselves of true accountability to Parliament and the people. Nowhere in any of that is public approval for a hard Brexit ...

Bit cynical

CelticRambler wrote: »

Just because Sky branded it the "Brexit Election" didn't make it a Brexit referendum; and just because the Tories ran an intense, negative campaign (with a liberal sprinkling of lies, exaggerations and fake news) that happened to include a meaningless Brexit slogan doesn't retrospectively validate a question that wasn't asked.

I agree that the media tend to oversimplify things by picking on a single issue and emphasizing it but Johnson (and indeed other prominent Tories) did repeatedly say that they would achieve completion in the matter of Britain's exit from the EU. It became almost something of a slogan. Insofar as any PM can have a mandate for anything, the Conservatives have a mandate for that. It would be very hard for them to get out of it now even if they wanted to.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

Just my few thoughts on couple things.

UK has not been negotiating in good faith and this will be only escalate under the current regime, it will get much worse. They cannot be trusted, their agreements with other parties have no value. They will renege whenever they feel like.

Once they are third country, the EU will have to be very aggressive, assertive and shrewd with them. Not punishing for leaving the EU, but punishing for their grand stupidity, leveraging as much as possible. I am convinced that any weakness or indecision on the EU side would be immediately used by the UK regime for their own benefit. The UK with its deregulation agenda will become a serious competitor and threat to the EU, this must not be taken lightly.
Deregulated tax haven, nuclear capable, of this size at the doorstep of the EU cannot be taken lightly. Also, politically, they will very likely start supporting all eurosceptic parties and think-tanks to be destabilise the EU as much as possible to weaken us. This is a war of too ideologies - Anglo-Saxon ultra neoliberalism vs regulated centrism of the EU. Ireland is the closest and the most integrated with the UK and will get a lot of the fallout.

The hypothesis that Johnson is bluffing and will go for soft Brexit is totally wrong. There's no evidence or indication of that. Follow the money, look at the people around him. The oligarchs money are clearly on Singapore on Thames, there are huge fortunes to be made. It is going to be a very hard Brexit. We need to get ready for that, it's not going to be easy or nice. History shows a lot what to do expect from the nasty English political class.

Agree completely. The Taoiseach said last week: "It looks like they're going for a harder Brexit than we anticipated and this may cause us problems". If our own PM believes this to be the case, we've no reason to doubt him.

I suspect 2020 will not be a good year for the UK. It needed a moderate, centre ground leader, someone who could reach out to all communities and try and heal the divisions. The right wing half of England seems pretty hawkish and hardline though and not in the mood for compromising with anyone.

Bit cynical

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To be perfectly honest, if the UK stance does not majorly impact on ROI, I would say let them at it. However, I do realise the reality, but in no way do I wish the UK to impact on our own economy or way of life really. Back to hubris on their part I suppose.

I'm afraid it is inevitable that the Irish economy will be affected negatively (though there will also be opportunities). Economic forecasts suggest that we will be impacted slightly less than the UK. But any country leaving a trading bloc will have an impact on its neighbours. It is just unfortunate for Ireland that it the country next to us leaving.

MrMusician18

McGiver wrote: »

Au contraire.

Democracy is nothing like what you indicate - it is the right to criticise, the right to oppose, the right to campaign, the right to protest, the right to dissent, right to change mind, the right to change anything.

Democracy is not static, democracy is a process, and change is its key feature.

Brexiters, who are largely authoritarian in outlook, present an abomination of democracy, basically a static ochlocracy. A majoritarian, authoritarian, mob rule with no right to dissent, oppose or change. It's a totally warped version of democracy and it has nothing to do with it, in fact.

This largely stems from ignorance and culture - the English divisive confrontational political system where 40% of popular vote gives the party a constitutional majority and free ride to do whatever they want. In civilised European countries constitutional majority is 60% and can never be exercised by single party/administration but only by a wide consensus.

What?? The majority in Ireland is 50% +1.

beggars_bush

Wonder how long it will take before Paddy is blamed for them not getting their unicorn trading deals?

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Express at it's usual crap this morning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1220232/Brussels-chaos-Spain-Poland-EU-Brexit-Spaxit-Vox-ECJ-latest-news

Spain has done no such thing. Nor has Poland.

That whole piece of based on one tweet and one hashtag that trended for a little while in Spain.

At least the 'journalist' states about 2/3rd of the way down that Vox, the party in question, only the 3rd largest party, have not backed any sort of leave campaign.

But the Express knows well that the majority of their readership won't even get that far.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1220659/EU-news-Brussels-chaos-Italy-news-trust-Europe-Ursula-von-der-leyen

Another one. Desperately working hard to prevent buyer's remorse. Have them all smugly thinking that they got off first.

I truly hope that they are wrong.

Imagine our world if the Express turned out to be right.

boggerman1

lawred2 wrote: »

Express at it's usual crap this morning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1220232/Brussels-chaos-Spain-Poland-EU-Brexit-Spaxit-Vox-ECJ-latest-news

Spain has done no such thing. Nor has Poland.

That whole piece of based on one tweet and one hashtag that trended for a little while in Spain.

At least the 'journalist' states about 2/3rd of the way down that Vox, the party in question, only the 3rd largest party, have not backed any sort of leave campaign.

But the Express knows well that the majority of their readership won't even get that far.

I see if you scroll down the same article that Johnson’s mouthpiece on the beeb Laura kussenberg is saying he’s out smarted the eu already.the media still peddling the unicorns and sunlight uplands that will come. Roll on Jan 31st

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

Express at it's usual crap this morning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1220232/Brussels-chaos-Spain-Poland-EU-Brexit-Spaxit-Vox-ECJ-latest-news

Spain has done no such thing. Nor has Poland.

That whole piece of based on one tweet and one hashtag that trended for a little while in Spain.

At least the 'journalist' states about 2/3rd of the way down that Vox, the party in question, only the 3rd largest party, have not backed any sort of leave campaign.

But the Express knows well that the majority of their readership won't even get that far.

Spain has held only one national referendum in the last 30 years, an advisory one on the EU Constitution (which was never even enacted). Pure fiction in the article.

RobMc59

boggerman1 wrote: »

I see if you scroll down the same article that Johnson’s mouthpiece on the beeb Laura kussenberg is saying he’s out smarted the eu already.the media still peddling the unicorns and sunlight uplands that will come. Roll on Jan 31st

Holyhead no more,fishguard no more, liverpool no more,cheap British cars no more, British food no more..

RobMc59

Its disappointing that posters are quoting articles from the Express-I think even the most rabid brexiteers takes anything that "newspaper"says with a pinch of salt!

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

Its disappointing that posters are quoting articles from the Express-I think even the most rabid brexiteers takes anything that "newspaper"says with a pinch of salt!

But they don't. It is for a lot of people a paper of record

sid waddell

Brexitspeak:

Madeira cake will become Mansfield cake
Plaster of Paris will become Plaster of Portsmouth
Parma ham will become Peterborough ham
Swiss roll will become Swindon roll
Hamburgers will become West Ham burgers
Valencia oranges will become Vale of Glamorgan oranges
Hollandaise sauce will become Hullaise sauce
Norway Spruce trees will become Norwich Spruce trees
Christmas Turkey will become “Christmas I don’t want them f**kin’ Muslims comin’ here”

https://twitter.com/Lugey6/status/1209173222777851908

RobMc59

sid waddell wrote: »

Brexitspeak:

Madeira cake will become Mansfield cake
Plaster of Paris will become Plaster of Portsmouth
Parma ham will become Peterborough ham
Swiss roll will become Swindon roll
Hamburgers will become West Ham burgers
Valencia oranges will become Vale of Glamorgan oranges
Hollandaise sauce will become Hullaise sauce
Norway Spruce trees will become Norwich Spruce trees
Christmas Turkey will become “Christmas I don’t want them f**kin’ Muslims comin’ here”

https://twitter.com/Lugey6/status/1209173222777851908

I hope Chicken madras does`nt become chlorinated madras!:eek:

brickster69

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope Chicken madras does`nt become chlorinated madras!:eek:

I bet Morrison's sour grapes come from Brussels though.:p

listermint

Not sure if anyone seen this but I found the analogy to be a very good one. Worth a read.

https://mobile.twitter.com/eurorealist/status/1209036707376619520

RobMc59

How can the express pass this off as news or is it just to whip up more xenophobia.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1214114/brexit-news-winston-churchill-empire-commonwealth-europe-eu-uk-boris-johnson-election-spt

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can the express pass this off as news or is it just to whip up more xenophobia.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1214114/brexit-news-winston-churchill-empire-commonwealth-europe-eu-uk-boris-johnson-election-spt

Given that Churchill had some very distasteful political opinions, I'm not sure where they're even going with this stuff. Most modern historians accept he was an out and out racist for example.

Then again, they had nonsense articles a couple of years ago about how the Queen was a strong Brexiteer.

Tea Shock

McGiver wrote: »

UK has not been negotiating in good faith and this will be only escalate under the current regime, it will get much worse. They cannot be trusted, their agreements with other parties have no value. They will renege whenever they feel like.

I'm blue in the face telling people this! Everyone seems to be assuming the threat of a hard border in Ireland is gone. It absolutely isn't. Especially given the fact that the UK prime minister has spent the last couple of months telling anyone who'll listen that the WA doesn't mean checks on goods moving from GB to NI. It's my prediction that come the Autumn or so, when they realise they're not going to be getting what they want, the British government will threaten to put the Irish border back on the table.... And there may be (God forbid) Taoiseach Micheal Martin there that they'll think might get them a different result than they got with Varadkar!

Nate--IRL--

Tea Shock wrote: »

I'm blue in the face telling people this! Everyone seems to be assuming the threat of a hard border in Ireland is gone. It absolutely isn't. !

It is entirely within the UK's power to create a hard border in Ireland any time they want. Whether they want to endure the consequences of doing so has quite likely prevented them from seriously considering it, despite the noises made
Trouble is all the interested parties involved also see this

Nate