Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Transition period basically freezes everything, except representation at the EU itself. But all the rules, laws, regulations etc stay in place.

The main benefit, apart from getting rid of the MEP's, is that is free the UK to start its own trade negotiations.

Igotadose

CelticRambler wrote: »

Indeed. And this is where the worst outcome for Ireland is not what happens in Jan 2020 in the UK, but what happens in Nov 2020 in the US. If they guy who's spent $118bn of American taxpayers' money on golfing weekends at his own clubs is granted an extended stay in the White House, that'll have a considerable effect on the sound and shape of Johnson's negotiations with both the EU and the US - and not necessarily at all in our (Ireland/EU's) favour.

"Only" $118mn, but otherwise correct. Probably close to $100bn on 'trade war' farmer welfare by the time the 'trade war' is over, though. Let alone all the additional costs passed on to the US consumer.

But, this is a Brexit thread, where no one, to date, has posted about a positive economic impact from Brexit. No analysis to date showing UK better off economically due to Brexit. Probably a prolonged period of economic contraction and austerity till these magical trade deals come into effect. Parity with what the UK has within the EU would be the best the UK can hope for - and that's as of 2019. The EU will continue to grow, while the UK, who knows...

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Transition period basically freezes everything, except representation at the EU itself. But all the rules, laws, regulations etc stay in place.

The main benefit, apart from getting rid of the MEP's, is that is free the UK to start its own trade negotiations.

In theory, but the fear would be that things would be unsettled and unstable in fact. The UK will have already left the EU (with no way back in), the clock now ticking down and one wonders just what this will do to business and consumer confidence.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

In theory, but the fear would be that things would be unsettled and unstable in fact. The UK will have already left the EU (with no way back in), the clock now ticking down and one wonders just what this will do to business and consumer confidence.

Quite, but from a legal POV the transition period means that nothing changes. And as such, I don't see that the normal 'Joe' will see anything different. So they will not notice anything during 2020 such as roaming charges etc that would point to any negativity from Brexit.

It does of course, no more so that the recent election, point to a definitive change in the situation. Up until the 31st, the UK could, technically, cancel the whole thing and revert back to the 'norm'. That changes on 1st February. And so the debate about leaving and possible final agreement changes from probable to absolute and there is no longer a Remain cause but a rejoin.

GM228

Strazdas wrote: »

In theory, but the fear would be that things would be unsettled and unstable in fact. The UK will have already left the EU (with no way back in), the clock now ticking down and one wonders just what this will do to business and consumer confidence.

Oh never say never (they have until end January to change their minds).

Perhaps some day when "Brexit" is a history lesson the UK will be still licking it's wounds and applying for accession to the EU (and imagine it didn't qualify).

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Quite, but from a legal POV the transition period means that nothing changes. And as such, I don't see that the normal 'Joe' will see anything different. So they will not notice anything during 2020 such as roaming charges etc that would point to any negativity from Brexit.

It does of course, no more so that the recent election, point to a definitive change in the situation. Up until the 31st, the UK could, technically, cancel the whole thing and revert back to the 'norm'. That changes on 1st February. And so the debate about leaving and possible final agreement changes from probable to absolute and there is no longer a Remain cause but a rejoin.

I think business confidence is the key one. There are lots of anecdotal reports of businesses moving out of the UK and EU nationals quietly moving back to their home countries. Things will be barely noticeable in February and March, but you'd wonder what the situation will be like by next summer.

There are definitely some economists who think the UK economy will become really bad over a period of time.

Nody

Russman wrote: »

So, assuming Johnson gets his WA passed shortly and they exit on 31st Jan, how long before your average punter in England notices anything different ? Does the transition period cover travel & workers rights etc ? I’m just wondering when/if they’ll have their “ohh f—k” moment and realize what a catastrophically bad idea Brexit was. Or will it be more like a death by a thousand cuts, where nothing seems too bad on its own but after a while somebody reminisces about how things weren’t always like this.

Short of the crash out scenario (i.e. WTO terms and no deals signed) no matter the scenario it's death by a thousand cuts basically. Services (NHS etc.) will be getting more "competitive" by bidding and "go high tech" by outsourcing to "strategic partners". Companies will announce even less investments but that becomes a cut by omission rather than public seeing it (but for sure you'll hear from various factory workers and the like who see that big production line upgrade they expected in 20XX not coming and going somewhere else or the replacement line suddenly being reduced in scope etc. as the factories downsize for the new reality). I'm sure the press will happily announce the glories of Brexit in the odd couple of million investments etc. as "proof that UK can compete" but the problem is the other hundred investments that simply never happened.

If I was to pick one single point of "Oh ****" though it would most likely have to be the first major trade deal after EU. The US or China one are both likely candidates to turn into extreme fiascos in practice and basically remove whole swaths of business more or less outright. EU could do the same as well but less likely simply because UK don't offer much direct competition; US or China going after farmers and other industries though via lower standards (sold in as "This trade deal with USA will lower the food cost for your average family by £800 a year!" in the newspapers without going in on the details of the lowered food standards connected to it) could be it. However I'm not sure there's enough people to "hear it" to care when it happens (I'm thinking Walmart vs. mom & pop stores in smaller towns) because money is always getting tighter and it's approved by government so should be ok to eat. I'm also sure there will be plenty of "I'm not allowed to travel because I forgot/got stolen/did not know/left at home my visa/document/passport" but those are there to make sure people can feel superior about themselves more so than about leaving EU being a bad idea. Nor do I expect there will be much talk about the greatly increased number of non EU workers for low paid labour that will happen in practice to replace EU citizens today and fill gap as that would show an increased immigration which Boris promised to stop and hence the Telegraph etc. don't want to tell that truth to their readers.

Strazdas

GM228 wrote: »

Oh never say never (they have until end January to change their minds).

Perhaps some day when "Brexit" is a history lesson the UK will be still licking it's wounds and applying for accession to the EU (and imagine it didn't qualify).

There is virtually nothing that could turn Brexit into a 'success'. It has already done huge damage at a societal and cultural level (many on the Leave side are in denial about this).

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

There is virtually nothing that could turn Brexit into a 'success'. It has already done huge damage at a societal and cultural level (many on the Leave side are in denial about this).

The problem is that Brexit has been dressed up as being so utterly catastrophic that anything less than that will seem like success.

GM228

Strazdas wrote: »

There is virtually nothing that could turn Brexit into a 'success'. It has already done huge damage at a societal and cultural level (many on the Leave side are in denial about this).

Ah but they have plenty of optimism.

"What is this optimism?” asks Cacambo, Candide’s servant and friend in Voltaire’s 1759 novella. “Alas”, Candide responds, “it is the madness of maintaining that everything is right when it is wrong".

First Up

Bit cynical wrote:

The problem is that Brexit has been dressed up as being so utterly catastrophic that anything less than that will seem like success.

It has been portrayed by Brexiteera as a release from bondage and a glorious new dawn for the liberated British industry.

Anything less will look like failure.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

The problem is that Brexit has been dressed up as being so utterly catastrophic that anything less than that will seem like success.

Not by the Leave side and the right wing press though and it looks like they have convinced the electorate that 'Project Fear' was real. Even now they're talking about a glorious future for the UK.

lawred2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Indeed. And this is where the worst outcome for Ireland is not what happens in Jan 2020 in the UK, but what happens in Nov 2020 in the US. If they guy who's spent $118bn of American taxpayers' money on golfing weekends at his own clubs is granted an extended stay in the White House, that'll have a considerable effect on the sound and shape of Johnson's negotiations with both the EU and the US - and not necessarily at all in our (Ireland/EU's) favour.

I do, however, believe that "our lads" in Brussels have already game-planned such a scenario and have at least half a dozen barrels on standby, which they'll do their damnedest to get the British over. :pac:

118bn dollars on golf weekends? What?

GM228

lawred2 wrote: »

118bn dollars on golf weekends? What?

It was at least $105M as of earlier this year, if re-elected it is believed his golf outings over the two terms would amount to around $340M.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/07/10/trumps-golf-trips-could-cost-taxpayers-over-340-million/#7f30a2c128aa

GM228

Retiring Lady Hale briefly mentions the prorogation Supreme Court case:-

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1210556223222898689?s=19

Pretty amazing the negative comments against her regarding the case by those who obviously know nothing of the law.

Strazdas

GM228 wrote: »

Retiring Lady Hale briefly mentions the prorogation Supreme Court case:-

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1210556223222898689?s=19

Pretty amazing the negative comments against her regarding the case by those who obviously know nothing of the law.

The real autocrats and anti-democrats are the Brexiteers themselves. They hate the Parliament, the judiciary and the civil service.

GM228

As we all (well most of us) have been saying.

EU chief says 2020 trade talks deadline may need to be extended

Johnson may want to re-think his legal ban on extending the deadline.

The deadline for negotiating the UK's future relationship with the EU may need to be extended, the European Commission president has said.

Boris Johnson has said the post-Brexit transition period will not be extended beyond 31 December 2020.

But Ursula von der Leyen told French newspaper Les Echos both sides needed to think seriously about whether this was enough time to reach an agreement.

She said she was "very worried" about how little time was available.

"It would be reasonable to evaluate the situation mid-year and then, if necessary, agree on extending the transition period," she told the paper.

Apparently there are 12 countries ahead of the UK to negotiate data laws alone:-

Wojciech Wiewiorowski, the EU's new data protection supervisor, told the paper that assessing the UK's data adequacy would be a lengthy process which may fall down the list of priorities in negotiations.

It's a long road ahead...

Strazdas

GM228 wrote: »

As we all (well most of us) have been saying.

EU chief says 2020 trade talks deadline may need to be extended

Johnson may want to re-think his legal ban on extending the deadline.



Apparently there are 12 countries ahead of the UK to negotiate data laws alone:-



It's a long road ahead...

But von der Leyen is also fully aware of where the debate is in the UK at the moment. She's trying to sound reasonable here, but she knows what she is up against and the hostility to both the EU and to a transition.

Seth Brundle

Interesting words...

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1210514488836919297?s=19

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

Not by the Leave side and the right wing press though and it looks like they have convinced the electorate that 'Project Fear' was real. Even now they're talking about a glorious future for the UK.

The problem is that that same right wing press will be able to point to the more extreme Remainer predictions and point out that things aren't that bad.

kowloon

First Up wrote: »

It has been portrayed by Brexiteera as a release from bondage and a glorious new dawn for the liberated British industry.

Anything less will look like failure.

When that doesn't happen they'll point out that the sky hasn't fallen rather than admit they were wrong. People were saying it 'won't be great from the economy but we'll recover' from the early days. They can take the hit and claim it's still better than the immigrant fuelled armageddon that the EU was going to force on them.

First Up

kowloon wrote:

When that doesn't happen they'll point out that the sky hasn't fallen rather than admit they were wrong. People were saying it 'won't be great from the economy but we'll recover' from the early days. They can take the hit and claim it's still better than the immigrant fuelled armageddon that the EU was going to force on them.

And German won't be a compulsory school subject.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

And German won't be a compulsory school subject.

It isn't now, a second language is compulsory, but it can be any language, usually French or German. Some schools have Spanish or Russian as an option as well.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

It isn't now, a second language is compulsory, but it can be any language, usually French or German. Some schools have Spanish or Russian as an option as well.

Brexit has saved them from the BBC broadcasting in German and compulsory sauerkraut for breakfast if the Brexiteers are to be believed.

Letwin_Larry

not a good time to be a Remainer in Uk right now, if the triumphalist nonsense being spouted on British media is anything to go by.

Professor Genius

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

not a good time to be a Remainer in Uk right now, if the triumphalist nonsense being spouted on British media is anything to go by.

The Remainers f’ed up big time. That idiot Jo Swinson is mainly to blame. Her absolutist nonsense was her downfall.

Leroy42

There shouldn't be any remainers left, it is over. The argument now is about the future relationship and how best to protect the UK from the worst cravings of the Brexiteers.

And the UK will not be rejoining the EU for at least a generation, if at all.

But you can understand the attitude of Brexiteers. In effect they have achieved what nobody said was possible, and not only that they have completely changed the political rule book in the process. If one is a Tory Brexiteer, the current position is something that one would have laughed at a few years ago as impossible.

9 years of austerity, a completely botched Brexit project, and not only are they not destroyed in the GE, they returned with the biggest majority since 1982 (I think).

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

There shouldn't be any remainers left, it is over.

They will exist because it is the one argument Brexit-supporters can win.. You can see it in the CA thread since the election. Many attempts by KidChameleon etc. to bring it back to "refusing to respect the result" etc. It's simply because they can win it. The vast majority of posters accept the result fine. You really really have to after the election.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

But you can understand the attitude of Brexiteers. In effect they have achieved what nobody said was possible, and not only that they have completely changed the political rule book in the process.

Wha'?

What impossible thing have they achieved? As soon as the referendum was announced (announced, not won) the EU were planning for a Leave win. You can't get more of an acknowledgement that Brexit was possible than that. If there was anyone who thought that it was "impossible" it was the ostriches in the Tory Party who thought such a referendum was a good idea to sort out their internal squabbles.

Strazdas

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

not a good time to be a Remainer in Uk right now, if the triumphalist nonsense being spouted on British media is anything to go by.

Reflected in the comments sections of the newspapers too.

But this is a recipe for deep, deep division in British society going forward. One side gloating, triumphal and high fiving each other and the other subdued into complete silence is a disaster in the making.