Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

farmerval wrote: »

Surely the huge question is the Brexit party.

They want a deal with the tories so that they might get a few MP's which would make them some way relevant, BoJo needs a deal with them, but is surely terrifed of making them relevant in the long term, they'll always nip at the Tories right flank.

Remember long after Brexit there'll still be plenty of racist xenephobic policies to be enact. e.g. Theresa May's lorries and signs, telling immigrants to go home etc etc.

The tories have a deal with the EU.

Unless the Brexit Party want to swing in behind there won't be any pacts.

The Tories will simply say - "vote for us and we leave the EU within days"

Brexit Party selling no deal.

No contest really.

Duane Dibbley

maebee wrote: »

I've been watching Sky News all day and unless I've missed something there hasn't been a mention of the DUP. They are now most definitely yesterday's men/women. Since the announcement of the forthcoming election, Sky have interviewed representatives from the Cons, Lab. LDs, SNP and Plaid Cymru. It's so obvious that the DUP were an aberration. A week is a long time in politics indeed.

The UK mainland just don’t give a toss about the NI.

The DUP were good for media sound bites but with a GE it’s all about the Cons , Lab and LD.

prawnsambo

So the new British PM will be known on Friday 13th. After a Halloween exit that turned out to be a damp squib, we really are getting a brexit of all the horrors.

Itssoeasy

So if the election is on December 12th, won't that mean that the results and next prime minister will be revealed on Friday the 13th ? Oh joy.

Duane Dibbley

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

DUP likely to lose seats as well.

They went against popular opinion from their own farmers and business backers as well as the overall population which apparently is now 72% remain!

It would be nice to see both SF and the DUP lose seats to the Alliance party.

Strazdas

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

The UK mainland just don’t give a toss about the NI.

The DUP were good for media sound bites but with a GE it’s all about the Cons , Lab and LD.

Johnson said to Paisley yesterday that there's only one exit deal and he hasn't got the slightest intention of altering it - Paisley looked furious.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

So the new British PM will be known on Friday 13th. After a Halloween exit that turned out to be a damp squib, we really are getting a brexit of all the horrors.

Not if there's a hung parliament though. It could mean weeks of haggling into the New Year before anyone knows what happens next.

dublinman1990

The GE result programmes usually begin at 9:55pm on the day of the election itself. The exit polls for the GE from ITV, BBC & Sky are released at 10pm. In this case on Dec 12th the broadcasters, including our own crowd from RTÉ, will then have various discussions & a live round-up of results from the various constituencies in the UK throughout the night into the early part of Friday morning & possibly beyond that if some constituencies cannot reveal their official results due to recounts & so on.

Mr.Nice Guy

Whether the incoming UUP leader Steve Aiken signs up to a pact with the DUP will be of big significance. He's suggested thus far that there will be no pact and that the UUP will stand in every constituency. That would be bad news for the likes of Nigel Dodds in North Belfast and Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast.

There's been a backlash against this from some unionists and loyalists as they know it would split the vote. It remains to be seen whether Aiken will stick to his position. I think there's a good chance he will row back on it as we move closer to the election. He'll come under enormous pressure to do so. Time will tell.

I reckon the DUP will keep most of their seats but lose South Belfast. Possibly to the SDLP's Claire Hanna.

jimmycrackcorm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There's been a backlash against this from some unionists and loyalists as they know it would split the vote. It remains to be seen whether Aiken will stick to his position. I think there's a good chance he will row back on it as we move closer to the election. He'll come under enormous pressure to do so. Time will tell.

Then what is the point of the UUP? I think he's pushing the position that the DUP doesn't serve unionism very well. Time for a change.

Russman

A little out of left field, but does anyone consider that BoJo wins a thumping majority, say 100 seats, and says to the EU “lads, we all know that’s a sh1t deal, but I had to go with it coz I needed the ERG head bangers on board, that’s not the case anymore so how about we go with staying in the CU & SM ? Makes it easier for us all.....”

Enzokk

Russman wrote: »

A little out of left field, but does anyone consider that BoJo wins a thumping majority, say 100 seats, and says to the EU “lads, we all know that’s a sh1t deal, but I had to go with it coz I needed the ERG head bangers on board, that’s not the case anymore so how about we go with staying in the CU & SM ? Makes it easier for us all.....”

You can still do that with his deal. His deal only agrees the border, the divorce bill and citizen's rights and anything else will be for the trade talks. So he could pass the legislation and exit, then during the few months they to negotiate a trade deal propose what you said and go for BRINO. The WA could be different as it could have had more items added to it to legally keep the UK close to the EU no matter the trade talks, but even the bare bones one they have now doesn't rule out staying in the CU and SM.

You could have Johnson win the election by a majority and take the UK out of the EU to then go for deregulation and a Canada only type trade deal in 2021, get voted out while trade talks take place if either the economy tanks or in 2024 if the FTPA is still legislation and the new government take an off the shelf relationship (Norway) and have it agreed in a few weeks.

Nody

Russman wrote: »

A little out of left field, but does anyone consider that BoJo wins a thumping majority, say 100 seats, and says to the EU “lads, we all know that’s a sh1t deal, but I had to go with it coz I needed the ERG head bangers on board, that’s not the case anymore so how about we go with staying in the CU & SM ? Makes it easier for us all.....”

The problem is not how many seats he win; the problem is what MPs he gets afterwards. If he ends up with a majority of ERG/Brexit party in all but name MPs they may even vote against his current deal not being hard enough (as remainers are likely to go to LD, SNP etc.)

Akrasia

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So if the election is on December 12th, won't that mean that the results and next prime minister will be revealed on Friday the 13th ? Oh joy.

Im going to go out on a limb and say there won’t be a next prime minister until well after Friday the 13th with at least 1 party leader forced to resign and a coalition negotiation involving multiple parties some of whom had previously ruled out coalition

Jo Swinson set herself in opposition to the only party she can credibly form a coalition with as long as Corbyn remains. The Tories could be stuck between a coalition with the brexit party, or the SNP at the cost of a 2nd Scottish referendum, and in Northern Ireland the UUP will likely make gains over the DUP...

There are any number of scenarios that result in more uncertainty and paralysis

farmerval

farmerval wrote: »

Surely the huge question is the Brexit party.

They want a deal with the tories so that they might get a few MP's which would make them some way relevant, BoJo needs a deal with them, but is surely terrifed of making them relevant in the long term, they'll always nip at the Tories right flank.

Remember long after Brexit there'll still be plenty of racist xenephobic policies to be enact. e.g. Theresa May's lorries and signs, telling immigrants to go home etc etc.

Once Brexit has been delivered, the "Brexit" party ceases to have any further relevance and will disappear in its present form.
Having said that, there is a high chance of a new right wing party emerging from the ashes of the Brexit party.

L1011

cameramonkey wrote: »

Have you any particular reason for your opinion that she lose the seat.

It's in Scotland. That is sufficient reason alone right now.

She lost it to the SNP in their previous landslide and it looks likely they'll have another

Leroy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Once Brexit has been delivered, the "Brexit" party ceases to have any further relevance and will disappear in its present form.
Having said that, there is a high chance of a new right wing party emerging from the ashes of the Brexit party.

A new party will be formed. Since Brexit doesn't actually deal with any of the underlying issues in the UK a new party will be required when the inevitable problems arise because of Brexit.

So someone will have to be blamed. The Deal will be 1st. If only they had gone for crash out none of the problems would exist. Then it will be the transition. Then a failure to negotiate better trade deals. Then NI. Scotland. The courts, the unemployed, the sick, the young or the old!

hometruths

L1011 wrote: »

It's in Scotland. That is sufficient reason alone right now.

She lost it to the SNP in their previous landslide and it looks likely they'll have another

I think it was a strategic error by Lib Dems to choose Swinson as leader, principally because she is a Scot.

Plenty of narrow minded English remainers who would not want a Scot for PM.

I think a Nick Clegg type of Lib Dem leader would make some serious hay in this election.

LeinsterDub

schmittel wrote: »

I think it was a strategic error by Lib Dems to choose Swinson as leader, principally because she is a Scot.

Plenty of narrow minded English remainers who would not want a Scot for PM.

I think a Nick Clegg type of Lib Dem leader would make some serious hay in this election.

No one realistically votes for the Lib Dems thinking they are electing the next PM

hometruths

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No one realistically votes for the Lib Dems thinking they are electing the next PM

To date no. But this election will be very different. It will essentially be a second referendum.

If 50% of the population want to remain and under FPTP a party needs somewhere around 30% to gain a majority, or be largest party then simple mathematics suggest the party of remain - Lib Dems - should fancy their chances of doing very well.

The Lib Dems have consistently been the party of remain, they campaigned in 2017 promising a second referendum, now their message is simply Revoke.

If you are a UK voter who cares deeply about remaining in the EU, IMO it is a no brainer who to vote for, irrespective of party loyalties etc.

If the Lib Dems end up being fourth largest party, smaller than SNPs as they are now, it will suggest either their campaign/message/leader is flawed or the support for strong remain is overstated within the electorate.

Joe_ Public

schmittel wrote: »

To date no. But this election will be very different. It will essentially be a second referendum.

If 50% of the population want to remain and under FPTP a party needs somewhere around 30% to gain a majority, or be largest party then simple mathematics suggest the party of remain - Lib Dems - should fancy their chances of doing very well.

The Lib Dems have consistently been the party of remain, they campaigned in 2017 promising a second referendum, now their message is simply Revoke.

If you are a UK voter who cares deeply about remaining in the EU, IMO it is a no brainer who to vote for, irrespective of party loyalties etc.

If the Lib Dems end up being fourth largest party, smaller than SNPs as they are now, it will suggest either their campaign/message/leader is flawed or the support for strong remain is overstated within the electorate.

No question a lot of people are going to vote for them on the basis of that remain stance. But it still wouldnt seem like a no brainer to me as voting lib dem could, in many instances, simply lead to tories sneaking extra seats. Whether voters take that into account is another question as there seems too much bad blood between the parties to forge any significant pacts or arrangements. The best chance of a second referendum (is anybody holding out for revoke?) is surely voting labour, but can they really get that message across? Will be the challenge i think.

B-D-P--

Very good article explaining possibilities of the GE,

https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-christmas-election-why-boris-johnson-taking-a-huge-gamble-2019-10?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T

Zubeneschamali

schmittel wrote: »

If you are a UK voter who cares deeply about remaining in the EU, IMO it is a no brainer who to vote for, irrespective of party loyalties etc.

Yes, but that doesn't mean voting LibDem necessarily.

It means voting for whoever has the best chance in your constituency of beating the Tory, whether that is Labour, LibDem, SNP, Green or Plaid.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but that doesn't mean voting LibDem necessarily.

It means voting for whoever has the best chance in your constituency of beating the Tory, whether that is Labour, LibDem, SNP, Green or Plaid.

Yeah. I just took a marginal North Wales one (Aberconwy) from 2017 (all data here) and the LibDems got just under 1,000 votes, PC got just over 3,000, but it was very tight between the Tories and Labour: 14,337 to 13,703. The brexit result was 52.2/47.8 leave. That would be one where cross party support for the Labour candidate (Emily Owen) would be very strategically useful.

Edit: On the other side of the coin is Cheadle. Tories got 24k, LD got 20k and Labour 10k. It was a 57/43 split to remain. That's an obvious target for the LibDems.

If all parties fight this election for themselves it's going to be something of a crapshoot in terms of how the total seats shake out.

hometruths

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but that doesn't mean voting LibDem necessarily.

It means voting for whoever has the best chance in your constituency of beating the Tory, whether that is Labour, LibDem, SNP, Green or Plaid.

I agree that what you say is probably what will happen, tactical voting designed to stop Tories, but by splitting Remain vote it could help Cons in some constituencies as much as it hinders them.

I suppose the point of my original post on the subject was that I think Lib Dems message should be "forget tactical voting, if all Remainers get behind us we will stop Brexit"

And I think a Nick Clegg type would be better able to land that message than Jo Swinson.

For Lib Dems to achieve their aim, they don't have to win a majority, just to be the second largest party.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. I just took a marginal North Wales one (Aberconwy) from 2017 (all data here) and the LibDems got just under 1,000 votes, PC got just over 3,000, but it was very tight between the Tories and Labour: 14,337 to 13,703. The brexit result was 52.2/47.8 leave. That would be one where cross party support for the Labour candidate (Emily Owen) would be very strategically useful.

Across the UK., since June 2016, demographics will have caused a 3% swing from Leave to Remain.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. I just took a marginal North Wales one (Aberconwy) from 2017 (all data here) and the LibDems got just under 1,000 votes, PC got just over 3,000, but it was very tight between the Tories and Labour: 14,337 to 13,703. The brexit result was 52.2/47.8 leave. That would be one where cross party support for the Labour candidate (Emily Owen) would be very strategically useful.

Edit: On the other side of the coin is Cheadle. Tories got 24k, LD got 20k and Labour 10k. It was a 57/43 split to remain. That's an obvious target for the LibDems.

I am hopeful that the Lib Dems and Labour will be able to find common ground in enough seats where either has no chance unless the other stands down to a degree. There should be enough out there like you highlighted where they would just frustrate each other and allow a Tory seat without needing to kill themselves in the process. I hope for calm heads to prevail in this case.

At the very least I think with the likes of Best for Britain looking at this very data, they will bring it to the attention of those on the ground at least if the leadership is deaf to reality.

Sam Russell

Headshot wrote: »

The funny thing is the less seen of BJ in the Scotland the better chance the Conservatives have but make no bones about it but Sturgeon would destroy BJ.

If he looks at T. May's performance at electioneering in 2017, he will find that every constituency she campaigned in resulted in a loss for the Tories. She would have been better running through fields of corn.

Bannasidhe

Enzokk wrote: »

I am hopeful that the Lib Dems and Labour will be able to find common ground in enough seats where either has no chance unless the other stands down to a degree. There should be enough out there like you highlighted where they would just frustrate each other and allow a Tory seat without needing to kill themselves in the process. I hope for calm heads to prevail in this case.

At the very least I think with the likes of Best for Britain looking at this very data, they will bring it to the attention of those on the ground at least if the leadership is deaf to reality.

It would make sense but I can't see it happening. Labour will insist it is running in every constituency and has the national party machine to do so - LD's will insist that they should run against vulnerable Tory candidates and both sides will refuse to budge an inch from their position.