Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Aidric

Lemming wrote: »

Interesting article in the new statesman about his recent "job advert". Summary being that it would seem that Cummings is speaking out of both sides of his mouth and either setting himself up for failure due to delusion & cognitive dissonance (ironic given his diatribes to date), or doesn't entirely believe his own crap. Either scenario is not flattering, and would place him squarely in ambro's earlier possible character assessment of "dangerous crank". He advertises solely on his own blog, reducing the pool of possible applicants that might see it or be active enough politically on twitter to see it. He then reduces it further by wanting those who align with his ideology and will sack anyone within weeks who does not fit, yet talks about wanting to increase diversity of thinking & opinion. So which is it that he actually wants? A bunch of sycopants or people who are good at what they do and will call out their political masters when reality meets ideology. The current issues with the British civil service (and I've heard as much from Irish civil servants dealing with their British counter parts over two years ago) stem from their political masters not knowing what they want or how it is to look, and thus the civil servants attempt to do the impossible whilst walking backwards blindfolded.

Cummings has a functioning brain and an eye for the big picture. Remarkably that places him ahead of the many innocents who voted for Johnson and his subservient cabinet.

Speaking out of both sides of his mouth is just a face saving exercise and for me represents a person with no real convictions. His blog posts and job advert are similarly cloudy. He is an idealistic disruptor but when the ideology falls down around his ears I'd bet he'll be nowhere to be seen.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm considering applying. I mean, I can't imagine that I'm in any way qualified but I'm curious nonetheless.

I'd imagine it's conspiracy theorists who have been sucked in by the breitbart propaganda who he is after. These people already think they're the smartest people in the world because they can see beyond what the 'sheeple' believe


These people are also extremely easy to manipulate, because if you can convince them that they're part of an elite group of rebels who know more secrets that nobody else knows, and you invite them to be part of your team, they will follow you like a cult leader and because part of this mentality involves believing that everyone who doesn't believe what you believe is either a willing participant, or a dupe in a bigger conspiracy against you, you will only trust other sources who are part of this same clique

Akrasia

Lemming wrote: »

Interesting article in the new statesman about his recent "job advert". Summary being that it would seem that Cummings is speaking out of both sides of his mouth and either setting himself up for failure due to delusion & cognitive dissonance (ironic given his diatribes to date), or doesn't entirely believe his own crap. Either scenario is not flattering, and would place him squarely in ambro's earlier possible character assessment of "dangerous crank". He advertises solely on his own blog, reducing the pool of possible applicants that might see it or be active enough politically on twitter to see it. He then reduces it further by wanting those who align with his ideology and will sack anyone within weeks who does not fit, yet talks about wanting to increase diversity of thinking & opinion. So which is it that he actually wants? A bunch of sycopants or people who are good at what they do and will call out their political masters when reality meets ideology. The current issues with the British civil service (and I've heard as much from Irish civil servants dealing with their British counter parts over two years ago) stem from their political masters not knowing what they want or how it is to look, and thus the civil servants attempt to do the impossible whilst walking backwards blindfolded.

Its not cognitive dissonance, Cummings can say as many derogatory things as he likes about conspiracy theorists. Most conspiracy theorists don't consider themselves to be conspiracy theorists. They don't think they have bad ideas, they think they're the only ones who have good ideas.

it's a clear political goal of attracting only the feeble minded sycophants to form a buffer around him to protect his interests, while also being able to claim in public that he is trying to transform politics by 'draining the swamp'
Its transparent, but also what else would he do, be honest that he only wants to surround himself with useful idiots?

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

The fallout of a potential brexit has affected the UK financially as many correctly point out here.My point that the UK is still fairly high in the financial league despite this.
If we`re pointing out mistakes, your comment that Europe has claimed 5 UK prime ministers scalps is incorrect.Cameron fell on his own sword because he let the UK down by calling the ridiculous referendum in the first place.

No, it hasn't. All that has occurred to date are companies either holding off from investing in the UK and fluctuations in the price of sterling.

The UK is still in the EU. Are you telling me that the situation as it stands right now is identical to that of a no deal Brexit?

My claim stands. Thatcher, Major, Cameron and May all fell over the EU. Johnson is next.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brexit has neither happened nor been defined yet.

This is a lot like the climate change deniers arguments

in the 70s:, the climate can't be changing it's still cold

In the 2010s:, sure the climate is getting pretty hot, but it hasn't been hot for very long so you can't say it won't cool down again

in the 2020s oh shiiiit, why didn't you warn us that Australia would burn down??

ancapailldorcha

Akrasia wrote: »

This is a lot like the climate change deniers arguments

in the 70s:, the climate can't be changing it's still cold

In the 2010s:, sure the climate is getting pretty hot, but it hasn't been hot for very long so you can't say it won't cool down again

in the 2020s oh shiiiit, why didn't you warn us that Australia would burn down??

What did I say that was wrong? Once the deal passes, we enter the transition period. We will have no idea what Brexit will be until July at the very earliest.

Akrasia

serfboard wrote: »

Hmmmm ... interesting.

Data scientists to trawl through peoples personal lives on social media? Or to mine social media so that an army of xenophobes can be collected to unleash whenever an unpopular policy is being implemented?

Remember the quote from Brexit, the Uncivil War? "350 million quid a week, and Turkey" - both of which were lies.

And policy experts? Where is he going to find these policy experts? In No. 55 Tufton Street, by any chance?

I think it's more along the lines of the climate change denial bloggers. 'experts' in data, who can look through thousands of data sources and find the few bits that they can poke holes in and spread doubt and confusion about what the actual data says

And 'policy' experts, ie, the people who think they're experts in policy because they've been banging on about one world government for decades and can finf evidence in any policy document by 'reading between the lines' so that even proponents of policy x can be made to look as though they really oppose it (and vice versa)

Cummings knows the power of propaganda and misinformation and he knows he does not need to produce accurate data for himself. He can let the real academics produce the accurate predictive data, while staffing his ministries with propagandists who he can pick and choose based on whatever crackpot theories they agree with to spread the right kinds of doubt, and promote the right kinds of 'certainties'.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What did I say that was wrong? Once the deal passes, we enter the transition period. We will have no idea what Brexit will be until July at the very earliest.

Sorry, I wasn't disagreeing with you at all. I didn't mean to appear like I was.

I quoted you because I agreed with you

Strazdas

Akrasia wrote: »

I think it's more along the lines of the climate change denial bloggers. 'experts' in data, who can look through thousands of data sources and find the few bits that they can poke holes in and spread doubt and confusion about what the actual data says

And 'policy' experts, ie, the people who think they're experts in policy because they've been banging on about one world government for decades and can finf evidence in any policy document by 'reading between the lines' so that even proponents of policy x can be made to look as though they really oppose it (and vice versa)

Cummings knows the power of propaganda and misinformation and he knows he does not need to produce accurate data for himself. He can let the real academics produce the accurate predictive data, while staffing his ministries with propagandists who he can pick and choose based on whatever crackpot theories they agree with to spread the right kinds of doubt, and promote the right kinds of 'certainties'.

The Telegraph are now reporting that the UK Govt are distancing themselves from his bizarre blog. Some of the stuff in it was controversial : scrapping Human Resources, sacking people shortly after they had been hired etc

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/03/government-distances-dominic-cummings-job-advert-mps-accuse/

Water John

Cummings Vs Civil Service, how long will he last? Will he be there in 12 months?
Sit him in a room and show him a few episodes of Yes Minister.

Akrasia

Water John wrote: »

Cummings Vs Civil Service, how long will he last? Will he be there in 12 months?
Sit him in a room and show him a few episodes of Yes Minister.

Drain the swamp....

It’s not unprecedented for demagogues to purge political and civil service opposition. I’m not saying Johnson and Cummings are Stalinist. Just that loyalties can be renegotiated when the balance of power changes. If Cummings can appoint heads of the civil service that are loyal to his ideology, then this shifts the balance of power away from Whitehall towards downing street

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Cummings Vs Civil Service, how long will he last? Will he be there in 12 months?
Sit him in a room and show him a few episodes of Yes Minister.

I think you mean Yes Prime Minister.

An Ciarraioch

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think you mean Yes Prime Minister.

Started out as Yes Minister, before becoming Yes Prime Minister in later series.

Sam Russell

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Started out as Yes Minister, before becoming Yes Prime Minister in later series.

Of course, but there was a significant change in Hacker's response to Sir Humphrey in that the power moved from Sir Humphrey to Hacker. In Yes Minister, Hacker was always outsmarted by Sir Humphrey, but in Yes Prime minister, Hacker did not out smart Sir Humphrey - he just over-ruled him.

But you knew that.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No, it hasn't. All that has occurred to date are companies either holding off from investing in the UK and fluctuations in the price of sterling.

The UK is still in the EU. Are you telling me that the situation as it stands right now is identical to that of a no deal Brexit?

My claim stands. Thatcher, Major, Cameron and May all fell over the EU. Johnson is next.

I read the posts here which tell of the fall in investment in the UK,whether businesses or services and the business going to continental Europe-I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of this which is why I pointed out the UK is still at present a financial force to be reckoned with despite this shift in investment.
As regards tory prime ministers,they got what they deserved although if Cameron had the guts to stand up to the right wing elements within his party he was possibly the most bearable of them.You couldn't believe a word out of May's mouth and Johnson is even worse as all his cabinet are equally as perfidious.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read the posts here which tell of the fall in investment in the UK,whether businesses or services and the business going to continental Europe-I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of this which is why I pointed out the UK is still at present a financial force to be reckoned with despite this shift in investment.

The issue is that within the EU, the UK was set to become the economically most powerful state within a reasonable time frame. Of course outside the EU, much of the engine of growth remains - it is just significantly weakened.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read the posts here which tell of the fall in investment in the UK,whether businesses or services and the business going to continental Europe-I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of this which is why I pointed out the UK is still at present a financial force to be reckoned with despite this shift in investment.

The UK does indeed have a strong presence in the financial sector, due to a variety of factors, including legacies of the British Empire days and the provision of services into the Single Market. The relevant question is "how will Brexit help improve or maintain this position?" and so far, none of the Brexiters have presented anything other than the "Singapore-on-Thames" idea.

Stepping back, then, for a minute, what can we forecast? The Empire Legacy will continue to diminish as former colonies compete with their master for market share, turning 'local knowledge' to their own advantage. The provision of financial services into the Single Market will evaporate if the Johnson-Cummings team play silly-buggers with the EU. And Singapore-on-Thames is far from guaranteed to succeed, not least because Sunderland is never going to accept a Singapore-like non-welfare state.

When it comes to FDI, as long as Brexit looks likely to precipitate the break-up of the UK, with at least two of the constituent nations re-joining the EU, there'll be less and less justification for committing long-term investment to England. More likely, London will simply become an enhanced centre for corporate and oligarchic money-laundering, this activity showing up simply as "significant economic activity" in the national statistics and being lauded by the right-wing press (a bit like the "full employment" of people on zero-hours contracts)

All-in-all, there is nothing in Brexit that adds to Britain's economic performance over the course of the coming decade; if the best that GB can hope for is to stand still, then all those emerging economies will quickly catch up, while more solid - and productive - economies like India and Italy will climb ahead in the rankings.

Irish Praetorian

fash wrote: »

The issue is that within the EU, the UK was set to become the economically most powerful state within a reasonable time frame. Of course outside the EU, much of the engine of growth remains - it is just significantly weakened.

Eh really? Is there a source for this claim? I only ask because these claims get thrown around a lot, like in the 80s when Japan was 'certain' to overtake the US in economic power - but then hard limits like population and geography set in and, whilst Japan is doing quite well and is a very large economy, it can't override those hard limits. For the UK, similarly, a smaller population than Germany is going to continue to be a limiting factor (unless they continue a mass-migration policy), whereas comparisons with France and Italy might be more interesting.

Sam Russell

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Eh really? Is there a source for this claim? I only ask because these claims get thrown around a lot, like in the 80s when Japan was 'certain' to overtake the US in economic power - but then hard limits like population and geography set in and, whilst Japan is doing quite well and is a very large economy, it can't override those hard limits. For the UK, similarly, a smaller population than Germany is going to continue to be a limiting factor (unless they continue a mass-migration policy), whereas comparisons with France and Italy might be more interesting.

I think what happened to Japan was that they sold far too much to the USA and ended up holding too many dollars and dollar assets. Reagan then devalued the dollar leaving the Japanese banks holding a deficit in their balance sheets causing them significant problems from which they had to retreat. This led to the Japanese lost decade.

The same might happen to China, but I think they are too cute to let it happen to them. While the Japanese bought dollar assets that they had to sell at a loss, the Chinese bought, say, steel mills but dismantled them and shipped them back to China, reinstalled them and shipped the steel back to America.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

The same might happen to China, but I think they are too cute to let it happen to them.

I seem to remember once hearing that China also holds a huge amount of US debt, presumably through sovereign investment funds and the like, giving them the power to cripple various sectors of the American economy at very little notice if ever they feel the need.

In this sense, it's another US parallel with the UK - right-wing politicians promoting all the advantages of privatisation, then selling national infrastructure to semi-state companies owned by other (EU) nations. I can see more of that happening as Brexit gnaws away at the British economy year after year.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

I seem to remember once hearing that China also holds a huge amount of US debt, presumably through sovereign investment funds and the like, giving them the power to cripple various sectors of the American economy at very little notice if ever they feel the need.

In this sense, it's another US parallel with the UK - right-wing politicians promoting all the advantages of privatisation, then selling national infrastructure to semi-state companies owned by other (EU) nations. I can see more of that happening as Brexit gnaws away at the British economy year after year.

Didn't we do the same. Giving NAMA a whole basket of Bank assets at 50% of book value and getting them to sell them on as fast as possible while expecting them to just beat the new discounted value. Consequently many assets were sold in a fire sale which allowed the vulture funds to make huge profits in double quick time - flipping assets for huge untaxed profits.

It would make sense now to limit how long the book losses that the banks carry forward carry forward to offset against future profits.

Infini

CelticRambler wrote: »

I seem to remember once hearing that China also holds a huge amount of US debt, presumably through sovereign investment funds and the like, giving them the power to cripple various sectors of the American economy at very little notice if ever they feel the need.

While it's something the Chinese COULD do they're not stupid though doing so is a double-edged sword as while it could damage America the blowback could damage their own interests too and it only works once, its not something they'd just do over a simple spat.

An Ciarraioch

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Eh really? Is there a source for this claim? I only ask because these claims get thrown around a lot, like in the 80s when Japan was 'certain' to overtake the US in economic power - but then hard limits like population and geography set in and, whilst Japan is doing quite well and is a very large economy, it can't override those hard limits. For the UK, similarly, a smaller population than Germany is going to continue to be a limiting factor (unless they continue a mass-migration policy), whereas comparisons with France and Italy might be more interesting.

The indices usually cited in regarded to this are the Globalisation Index and the Global Competitiveness Index - in the first, the EU and the UK both perform well, with the latter fifth, and the former holding places 2-4 and 6-10.

https://kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2019/10/weaker-world-trade-slowing-globalisation.html

In the second, four of the top 10 are EU economies, with the UK 23rd:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/singapore-and-hong-kong-have-overtaken-the-us-as-the-most-competitive-economies-heres-how-25-countries-rank

fash

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Eh really? Is there a source for this claim?

Lots of analyses showed it. Here is a post brexit referendum one showing the UK NOT reaching parity with Germany by 2050:

https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

Lots of analyses showed it. Here is a post brexit referendum one showing the UK NOT reaching parity with Germany by 2050:

https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html

Caveat from the end of the article:

The UK’s position is sustained by its projected larger working-age share of the population than in most other advanced economies. However, PwC cautions that this strong growth potential depends on the UK continuing to attract and employ talented people from around the world, even after it leaves the EU.

Guess what demographic is leaving the UK because of Brexit? Are the traditionally less-productive natives and non-EU immigrants in the UK going to decide to get out of bed and make a compensatory positive contribution to the British economy as EU citizens are encouraged to leave?

Sam Russell

fash wrote: »

Lots of analyses showed it. Here is a post brexit referendum one showing the UK NOT reaching parity with Germany by 2050:

https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html

A full fat fact free exposee of sunny green uplands filled with prancing unicorns.

What assumptions were made? The UK outperforming the major economies of the EU - Yea - that must be true.

How well did PcW do at forecasting the 2008 crash?

sondagefaux

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Personally I think the UK is going to go rather quite about Brexit this year. They will formally leave at the end of the month and start the long path to agreeing a trade deal, and it will be a long path regardless of what Mr Johnson said while campaigning.

With his electoral victory Mr Johnson can look forward to a decade in power and I don't see him needlessly making life dificult for himself. I hear he is already trying to ban the word Brexit in No. 10. Sounds to me like he wants to focus on other things. He is also not beholden to any segment in his party so has no real reason to posture for the ERG's sake. If he wants to, Mr Johnson could simply let the trade negotiations take their course over the next five or more years, extending the transition period as needed. In the meantime I think Mr Johnson is going to shift the focus to domestic politics, using his majority to implement his policies in the UK.

The general public don't care about the details and technicalities of a trade deal. They care about "getting Brexit done". It will be done on Jan 31st, and Mr Johnson will be the Prime Minister who delivered it and finally brought the UK out of the EU. Why would he wan't to spoil the party by runnng into a wall on the trade deal when he can have his Brexit with none of the consequences for years to come?

Apart from the UK having to obey all relevant EU law until at least the end of this year, and possibly for another two years after under the Withdrawal Agreement.

'They care about "getting Brexit done"'.

About 47% of people voted for pro-Brexit parties/candidates.

There's no majority now in favour of Brexit. So 'they' represent a minority of the UK electorate.

The only reason Johnson won a majority of seats is because of the UK's ridiculous First Past the Post voting system.

As for not caring about the details of trade deals, people who lose their jobs soon after the UK is no longer part of the Single Market and without a customs union with the EU will care a lot.

The most vulnerable sectors are internationally traded financial services, pharmaceuticals and just-in-time manufactures with high percentages of their sales to the EU, the car industry being the most obvious example.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

The UK does indeed have a strong presence in the financial sector, due to a variety of factors, including legacies of the British Empire days and the provision of services into the Single Market. The relevant question is "how will Brexit help improve or maintain this position?" and so far, none of the Brexiters have presented anything other than the "Singapore-on-Thames" idea.

Stepping back, then, for a minute, what can we forecast? The Empire Legacy will continue to diminish as former colonies compete with their master for market share, turning 'local knowledge' to their own advantage. The provision of financial services into the Single Market will evaporate if the Johnson-Cummings team play silly-buggers with the EU. And Singapore-on-Thames is far from guaranteed to succeed, not least because Sunderland is never going to accept a Singapore-like non-welfare state.

When it comes to FDI, as long as Brexit looks likely to precipitate the break-up of the UK, with at least two of the constituent nations re-joining the EU, there'll be less and less justification for committing long-term investment to England. More likely, London will simply become an enhanced centre for corporate and oligarchic money-laundering, this activity showing up simply as "significant economic activity" in the national statistics and being lauded by the right-wing press (a bit like the "full employment" of people on zero-hours contracts)

All-in-all, there is nothing in Brexit that adds to Britain's economic performance over the course of the coming decade; if the best that GB can hope for is to stand still, then all those emerging economies will quickly catch up, while more solid - and productive - economies like India and Italy will climb ahead in the rankings.

Obviously a hard brexit would adversely effect the future growth of the UK economy whilst a trade agreement could possibly put the UK in the position to kick on-I would be more concerned from an EU viewpoint if those in charge in the UK were`nt so clueless.
Something else I`ve noticed recently is an increase in advertising about `don`t forget Australia`and it does`nt seem to be aimed at getting people to holiday there.Whether they hope to cement an even closer relationship with the UK is anyone`s guess.

fash

Sam Russell wrote: »

A full fat fact free exposee of sunny green uplands filled with prancing unicorns.

What assumptions were made? The UK outperforming the major economies of the EU - Yea - that must be true.

How well did PcW do at forecasting the 2008 crash?

It isn't just PWC who forecast it:
https://globalsecurityreview.com/will-global-economic-order-2050-look-like/
But anyway - agree or disagree, it is from this and similar sources that I derived my opinion.

Sam Russell

fash wrote: »

It isn't just PWC who forecast it:
https://globalsecurityreview.com/will-global-economic-order-2050-look-like/
But anyway - agree or disagree, it is from this and similar sources that I derived my opinion.

That is the same article. Still no assumptions,so fact free.

How can anyone forecast the future of the UK post Brexit when no-one has a clue what sort of deal the UK will get with any economy larger than the Faroe Islands?