Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

First Up

johnnyskeleton wrote:

Waved away and forgotten about domestically. But the EU are watching and the more they see people talking out of both sides of their mouths, the more determined they will be to have it in writing with enforceable provisions in the event of breach

The EU (as in member states and Commission) understands that politicians have play to their home audience. It goes with the job and is greeted with a knowing smile.

Stuff for consumption by the media and electorates is accepted as part of the game but it doesn't carry any weight in Brussels. The EU might help politicians wrap the parcel, but it doesn't change the contents.

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

The EU (as in member states and Commission) understands that politicians have play to their home audience. It goes with the job and is greeted with a knowing smile.

Stuff for consumption by the media and electorates is accepted as part of the game but it doesn't carry any weight in Brussels. The EU might help politicians wrap the parcel, but it doesn't change the contents.

There's a distinction to be observed, though.

When the EU has made a deal with a member state or a non-member state, there's an understanding that the deal needs to be sold domestically. So the statee concerned may present the deal as good because it does X, Y or Z, which will be popular domestically. The truth may be that the deal doesn't do X, Y or Z very well, and what is much more signficant is that it does A, B or C, but attention is not to be drawn to this. Or, the deal may be represented as a victory for the state concerned, when in fact it represents more of a climbdown. The EU is fine with this, and in fact will often co-operate to enable the state to "sell" the deal.

What's quite different is where a state does a deal and them immediately denies, for domestic consumption, that it has done a deal, or that the deal will have the effects that it clearly will have, or that the state will be bound by the deal. Brexit has been characterised throughout by such behaviour on the part of the UK, and it is certainly not "greeted with a knowing smile" on the EU side. It undermines trust, it calls into question the good faith and dependability of the UK, and it definitely leads the EU to seek to nail down their own priorities and requirements in as clear, concrete and binding terms as they can.

Strazdas

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Waved away and forgotten about domestically. But the EU are watching and the more they see people talking out of both sides of their mouths, the more determined they will be to have it in writing with enforceable provisions in the event of breach

There seems to be a sense of the UK making things up on the hoof and having no longterm plan or vision. The bizarre and chaotic statements from ministers might be a reflection of how chaotic Brexit itself is.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

What's quite different is where a state does a deal and them immediately denies, for domestic consumption, that it has done a deal, or that the deal will have the effects that it clearly will have, or that the state will be bound by the deal. Brexit has been characterised throughout by such behaviour on the part of the UK, and it is certainly not "greeted with a knowing smile" on the EU side. It undermines trust, it calls into question the good faith and dependability of the UK, and it definitely leads the EU to seek to nail down their own priorities and requirements in as clear, concrete and binding terms as they can.

The knowing smiles continue but the EU is much less generous with the wrapping paper.

timetogo1

Strazdas wrote: »

There seems to be a sense of the UK making things up on the hoof and having no longterm plan or vision. The bizarre and chaotic statements from ministers might be a reflection of how chaotic Brexit itself is.

Hasn't that been the case since before the referendum.
I remember hearing "Easiest trade deal in history", "they need us more than we need them", "of course we'd never leave the single market" etc. etc. from senior ministers. You would hope they'd have been more informed / educated than they seem to be.

They're flip flipping around constantly. The bigger surprise for me is that 48% of the UK population don't seem to care.

All this is ending up doing is making the EU look like they have to deal with a bunch of clowns so nobody is in any doubt as to who to blame.
(Well in the UK they'll blame everybody else, including us, but after 31st Jan nobody outside the UK will care who they blame).

Zubeneschamali

timetogo1 wrote: »

All this is ending up doing is making the EU look like they have to deal with a bunch of clowns so nobody is in any doubt as to who to blame. (Well in the UK they'll blame everybody else, including us, but after 31st Jan nobody outside the UK will care who they blame).

What this is doing is undermining the UK's reputation as a trustworthy, respectable nation immediately before the UK enters the most important international talks it has been a party to in a generation.

No-one is going to trust a word the UK negotiators say in any talks, and will want to see everything in writing up front before wasting any time on them.

Since they have shown zero ability to come up with anything on their own (the entire WA was written by the EU team) this does not bode well for them in talks.

It has been suggested that they will open talks with the US and Australia before the EU. Australia have already said they will wait to see the shape of the EU deal, and the US are going to lay out a plan for utter national humiliation of the UK and then laugh.

54and56

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Is it just that the UK political system has very little experiance of doing deals of its own with larger entities and does not understand how the game works when you are the smaller party? Other than Brexit what was the last major deal the UK did by itself with a partner bigger than itself?

They seem to be treating this process as if it were an unbalenced negotiation with them as the bigger party, is it just that this is the only kind of negotiation posture the UK has any experiance of in the modern era and as such is using tactics that do not reflect their position because that is all they have in the bag? They were a big fish within the EU and through the EU were always a big fish in trade deals. Do they just not understand what it is to be the junior partner to a trade negotiation?

The UK will be the supplicant party in the forthcoming negotiations. They can pretend otherwise and talk about equal nations etc but everyone knows that the economic heft is with the EU.

Given that reality it is beyond stupid for the weaker party in a negotiation to box themselves into a corner right from the start by hard coding an artificial deadline when that deadline bears no relevance to the actual timeline required to enable the sort of deep and comprehensive agreement the UK is asking for particularly when the best alternative to a negotiated agreement otherwise known as WTO terms / No Deal Brexit / Clean Brexit (take your pick) will be so damaging to the UK.

In poker terms it's like the UK with two pair have decided to bluff the EU who are not only holding a straight flush but know the UK only has two pair.

BoJo has essentially decided that the damage that would be done to him and the Tories from the ERG/Farage types if he was to allow the transition period to be extended outweighs the potential damage to the country if a deal can't be reached by Dec 31st and the UK begins trading on WTO terms.

newport2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What this is doing is undermining the UK's reputation as a trustworthy, respectable nation immediately before the UK enters the most important international talks it has been a party to in a generation.

No-one is going to trust a word the UK negotiators say in any talks, and will want to see everything in writing up front before wasting any time on them.

Since they have shown zero ability to come up with anything on their own (the entire WA was written by the EU team) this does not bode well for them in talks.

It has been suggested that they will open talks with the US and Australia before the EU. Australia have already said they will wait to see the shape of the EU deal, and the US are going to lay out a plan for utter national humiliation of the UK and then laugh.

It's astonishing. Question for the electorate: Based on the last 3 years, who would you prefer negotiating deals on your behalf, the UK government or the EU?

Sam Russell

The A has not passed all stages yet. There is a UK Cabinet reshuffle due in Feb.

After that, we will see who is where in the power stakes.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What this is doing is undermining the UK's reputation as a trustworthy, respectable nation immediately before the UK enters the most important international talks it has been a party to in a generation.

No-one is going to trust a word the UK negotiators say in any talks, and will want to see everything in writing up front before wasting any time on them.

Since they have shown zero ability to come up with anything on their own (the entire WA was written by the EU team) this does not bode well for them in talks.

It has been suggested that they will open talks with the US and Australia before the EU. Australia have already said they will wait to see the shape of the EU deal, and the US are going to lay out a plan for utter national humiliation of the UK and then laugh.

It was a point made in the last Brexitcast I think, you will Barnier be negotiating with and why bother when the past has shown that the negotiator hasn't a clear view of what is and isn't acceptable and any agreement is subject to the latest whims of the cabinet?

The UK continue to flip flop on everything. Remember the Chequers agreement, which fell apart even before it reached the EU?

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

It was a point made in the last Brexitcast I think, you will Barnier be negotiating with and why bother when the past has shown that the negotiator hasn't a clear view of what is and isn't acceptable and any agreement is subject to the latest whims of the cabinet?

The UK continue to flip flop on everything. Remember the Chequers agreement, which fell apart even before it reached the EU?

He may also be happy to spin whatever deal the EU offers him and go with that.

So what are we actually expecting to change in 11 days?

Leroy42

Christy42 wrote: »

He may also be happy to spin whatever deal the EU offers him and go with that.

So what are we actually expecting to change in 11 days?

Nothing, that is the whole point of the transition. Nothing at all changes. At this stage it actually plays into the whole Brexit idea and you will have the usuals coming out saying that the sky didn't fall in and Project Fear has been debunked yet again.

Of course the effects, although anybody paying attention can already see them, will not really start to impact for another year at least, if Dec 2020 timeline is adhered to.

What will be different is that the Brexit, after a few triumphant newspaper inserts, some flag waving etc, will stop being talked about and the real discussions will be behind closed doors. It will disappear from the popular narrative, with only politicos and economists, trade experts and business people directly in the line of fire, paying attention.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

What will be different is that the Brexit, after a few triumphant newspaper inserts, some flag waving etc, will stop being talked about and the real discussions will be behind closed doors.

That is certainly what Johnson is hoping. I can't see it though, there are too many millions of Remainers just waiting to blame anything and everything on Brexit.

ballsymchugh

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That is certainly what Johnson is hoping. I can't see it though, there are too many millions of Remainers just waiting to blame anything and everything on Brexit.

not waiting to blame, just make sure that the leavers own their mess when factories shut down if there's no trade deal that allows sunlight and happiness.

robinph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That is certainly what Johnson is hoping. I can't see it though, there are too many millions of Remainers just waiting to blame anything and everything on Brexit.

Despite what the brexiteers and newspaper media would have you believe, the remain view had not had control of the narrative at all at any point in the process... other than it just being assumed that remain would win initially. There is far more brexiteers complaining about leavers scuppering their plans than there is actually any scuppering going on.

Brexit: You just need to believe and it will all be great.
Remain: Give us something positive and real to get behind.
Brexit: See, it's all your fault for not believing enough.
Remain: Huh?

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

Despite what the brexiteers and newspaper media would have you believe, the remain view had not had control of the narrative at all at any point in the process

While I agree, there is no way the Brexiteers have such total control that they will be able to pretend Brexit is over and done on Feb 1st. Even if Johnson's government and its pet newspapers stop using the word Brexit, there are lots and lots of people just waiting for it all to fail so that they can say "we told you so".

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

While I agree, there is no way the Brexiteers have such total control that they will be able to pretend Brexit is over and done on Feb 1st. Even if Johnson's government and its pet newspapers stop using the word Brexit, there are lots and lots of people just waiting for it all to fail so that they can say "we told you so".

But they have been successfully ignored until now, in fact not only ignored but Brexit has moved from simply leaving the political union to now the clear policy to move as far away from the EU as possible.

Remainers will be replied to with simple lines like "respect the vote", "remoaner" or "its nothing to do with Brexit". And if all that doesn't work, then the line about "people knew what they voted for, biggest Tory seats in 35 years"

Take a look at the comments section of an Express article. There is loads of "sure we don't need XYZ" or "Whatever the outcome at least we are free".

It will then come down to blaming other countries. The EU obviously, but then the likes of Australia, NZ, Canada etc will come under attack from the media for not doing the deal that the UK wants and in the time it wants it.

And Labour will still be too busy doing surveys of itself to do anything about any of it.

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Nothing, that is the whole point of the transition. Nothing at all changes. At this stage it actually plays into the whole Brexit idea and you will have the usuals coming out saying that the sky didn't fall in and Project Fear has been debunked yet again.

Of course the effects, although anybody paying attention can already see them, will not really start to impact for another year at least, if Dec 2020 timeline is adhered to.

What will be different is that the Brexit, after a few triumphant newspaper inserts, some flag waving etc, will stop being talked about and the real discussions will be behind closed doors. It will disappear from the popular narrative, with only politicos and economists, trade experts and business people directly in the line of fire, paying attention.

I mean really the same? No tariffs. No borders yet?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

But they have been successfully ignored until now, in fact not only ignored but Brexit has moved from simply leaving the political union to now the clear policy to move as far away from the EU as possible.

I agree that Leavers will trot out the standard lines, but my point is they will have to keep trotting them out, they will have to keep talking about Brexit because Remoaners are never, ever, ever going to shut up about it.

This idea that after Brexit Day, no-one will talk about it is nonsense. In 50 years, someone will pop up and say "Oy, Rees-Mogg said there would be a Brexit dividend around now, where is it please?".

moritz1234

timetogo1 wrote: »

Hasn't that been the case since before the referendum.
I remember hearing "Easiest trade deal in history", "they need us more than we need them", "of course we'd never leave the single market" etc. etc. from senior ministers. You would hope they'd have been more informed / educated than they seem to be.

They're flip flipping around constantly. The bigger surprise for me is that 48% of the UK population don't seem to care.

All this is ending up doing is making the EU look like they have to deal with a bunch of clowns so nobody is in any doubt as to who to blame.
(Well in the UK they'll blame everybody else, including us, but after 31st Jan nobody outside the UK will care who they blame).

The weird thing is a lot of people seem now convinced by Cummings' propaganda slogans (even people I know who strongly believed in remaining).
Cummings has won so far whatever he has set out to achieve, the question is what is his end goal?

Shelga

moritz1234 wrote: »

Cummings has won so far whatever he has set out to achieve, the question is what is his end goal?

The line “some men just want to watch the world burn” springs to mind...

Leroy42

The contrary to the whole nothing actually changes after 31st during the transition, is what will the Brexiteers have to show for it?

They want parties and bells ringing etc, and of course I understand where they are coming from, but whilst technically they will have left, they are actually, for the transition period, in a worse position then they currently are given they will still be abiding by all the rules without any say and FoM will still exist etc.

So will people start to question what it was all about given that nothing changed? Of course they will argue that real change is coming, but then why big up the 31st?

Lemming

moritz1234 wrote: »

The weird thing is a lot of people seem now convinced by Cummings' propaganda slogans (even people I know who strongly believed in remaining).
Cummings has won so far whatever he has set out to achieve, the question is what is his end goal?

Slogans can only go so far before "its the economy, stupid" decides to kick in the front door and make itself present in ones face. For example, Javid's little brain-f@rt at the weekend had warnings of price rises on foodstuffs as a result; lower - not higher - foodstuff prices were one of the whirlwind benefits to supposedly be had from brexit, especially for those already struggling to make ends meet. Those who think that they have nothing to lose (hence their referendum and subsequent electoral votes) are going to on the receiving end of a brutal education on how things can always get worse than they already are.

moritz1234

Leroy42 wrote: »

The contrary to the whole nothing actually changes after 31st during the transition, is what will the Brexiteers have to show for it?

They want parties and bells ringing etc, and of course I understand where they are coming from, but whilst technically they will have left, they are actually, for the transition period, in a worse position then they currently are given they will still be abiding by all the rules without any say and FoM will still exist etc.

So will people start to question what it was all about given that nothing changed? Of course they will argue that real change is coming, but then why big up the 31st?

Symbolism - the regrowth of ze empire. Johnson will give his "fight them on the beaches" speech on the 31st Jan.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

Slogans can only go so far before "its the economy, stupid" decides to kick in the front door and make itself present in ones face. For example, Javid's little brain-f@rt at the weekend had warnings of price rises on foodstuffs as a result; lower - not higher - foodstuff prices were one of the whirlwind benefits to supposedly be had from brexit, especially for those already struggling to make ends meet. Those who think that they have nothing to lose (hence their referendum and subsequent electoral votes) are going to on the receiving end of a brutal education on how things can always get worse than they already are.

The only way to really reduce food prices IMO would be to adopt the US model and cut tariffs on everything. Of course, this would mean the end of the British farming and fishing industries but we knew that anyway.

Leroy42

Lemming wrote: »

Slogans can only go so far before "its the economy, stupid" decides to kick in the front door and make itself present in ones face. For example, Javid's little brain-f@rt at the weekend had warnings of price rises on foodstuffs as a result; lower - not higher - foodstuff prices were one of the whirlwind benefits to supposedly be had from brexit, especially for those already struggling to make ends meet. Those who think that they have nothing to lose (hence their referendum and subsequent electoral votes) are going to on the receiving end of a brutal education on how things can always get worse than they already are.

That was not a brain fart. It was a deliberate and planned intervention.

IMO, they are trying to scare the EU, looking at getting them to give in on certain things to pull UK back closer. Hence all this talk of starting US trade negotiations first. Its all a power play to try to make the UK have some bargaining power.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The only way to really reduce food prices IMO would be to adopt the US model and cut tariffs on everything. Of course, this would mean the end of the British farming and fishing industries but we knew that anyway.

Well domestically yes, but wouldn't the UK be aiming to get into the more foreign markets, same as Ireland has done. So aim for a higher value market.

Don't ask me how they intend to do it, nothing was stopping them in the past, but needs must I suppose.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I agree that Leavers will trot out the standard lines, but my point is they will have to keep trotting them out, they will have to keep talking about Brexit because Remoaners are never, ever, ever going to shut up about it.

This idea that after Brexit Day, no-one will talk about it is nonsense. In 50 years, someone will pop up and say "Oy, Rees-Mogg said there would be a Brexit dividend around now, where is it please?".

Given that most Remain voters are younger, the idea that England's right wing OAPs and the newspapers they read will be able to shut down the Europe debate forever seems remote.

timetogo1

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well domestically yes, but wouldn't the UK be aiming to get into the more foreign markets, same as Ireland has done. So aim for a higher value market.

Don't ask me how they intend to do it, nothing was stopping them in the past, but needs must I suppose.

Maybe, but at the expense of their largest market. Admittedly that could make sense in a Tory brain.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well domestically yes, but wouldn't the UK be aiming to get into the more foreign markets, same as Ireland has done. So aim for a higher value market.

Don't ask me how they intend to do it, nothing was stopping them in the past, but needs must I suppose.

But what markets is the UK aiming for exactly? Unless it plans to get a plethora of smaller ones then it's going to have to make a significant trade off and the result will be the same regardless as I alluded to above.