Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

Silent Running wrote: »

Now all they have to do is get them out to vote. That's the hard bit.

Vote for who is the hard bit. Your average Joe on the street doesn't know a votes for the greens is the best remain vote in a certain constituency for example

ancapailldorcha

Silent Running wrote: »

Now all they have to do is get them out to vote. That's the hard bit.

Well... On one hand, the winter might hinder the older folk who are more reliable in terms of both voting and voting Conservative. The Conservatives also get most of their support from more rural constituencies. Then again, students and such might just stay in.

I don't think that the European elections are a suitable barometer for predicting turnout but at the same time it will be critical that Corbyn actually rides the Remain wave instead of having it crush him. Nobody who wouldn't normally vote will break that habit for a Labour renegotiation.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A major factor in the 2017 election was that May literally did not turn up for debates and for campaigning. This left Corbyn with the field to himself. Johnson is a deeply flawed person and politician but he has charisma. He will turn up everywhere.

If I were the Tories, I would make this a presidential style dogfight between Johnson and Corbyn. The possible Achilles heel in that strategy is that, without doubt, there is plenty of muck yet to be made public about Johnson. If Labour can find it and make it stick then it could be a game changer.

Charisma will only get you so far. Johnson might have charisma but he has a lot of skeletons which are now very visible. He wanted to have his deal done so he could be the man who delivered Brexit. As with everything else in his tenure, he failed and he knows that this will weaken him.

Remember that clip from Morley where he was told to go to Brussels and do his job? I think this attitude will reflect those of large swathes of this country. Scotland will rinse itself of Ruth Davidson's hard won 2017 gains, Wales might return a few Conservatives, the DUP will vote against the deal if they retain all of their seats and the Liberal Democrats might nibble away at a few of their southern seats as they don't have to endure the Corbyn stigma. Then again, they might eat a few of Labour's leads such that the Tory candidate wins there. Hard to say. He needs to tap into new votes and it's impossible to see how. Davidson was able to ruthlessly portray herself as a staunch Unionist but Johnson will not have that luxury.

hometruths

quokula wrote: »

Oh I totally understand that. But most of the criticism seems to be coming from remainers, even though Labour's policy is their absolute best case possible.

I think most of the criticism aimed at Labour is not against holding a second referendum, it is because they have not declared a policy of whether they support Leave or Remain in that referendum.

If you are remainer the best case possible is revoke - Lib Dem policy.

Professor Moriarty

quokula wrote: »

Oh I totally understand that. But most of the criticism seems to be coming from remainers, even though Labour's policy is their absolute best case possible.

Look at it this way. Here are some slogans:

Tories: Back Boris' Deal and Get Brexit Done!
Lib Dems: Revoke!
The Brexit Party: A Clean Break!
Labour: Well, some of us want to have a second referendum but some more want a soft brexit negotiated. Some more want to Remain. But we're very clear, that we will renegotiate the deal and then maybe put it to a second referendum. But we could have a referendum first. Something, something, renegotiate, something referendum.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well... On one hand, the winter might hinder the older folk who are more reliable in terms of both voting and voting Conservative. The Conservatives also get most of their support from more rural constituencies. Then again, students and such might just stay in.

I don't think that the European elections are a suitable barometer for predicting turnout but at the same time it will be critical that Corbyn actually rides the Remain wave instead of having it crush him. Nobody who wouldn't normally vote will break that habit for a Labour renegotiation.



Charisma will only get you so far. Johnson might have charisma but he has a lot of skeletons which are now very visible. He wanted to have his deal done so he could be the man who delivered Brexit. As with everything else in his tenure, he failed and he knows that this will weaken him.

Remember that clip from Morley where he was told to go to Brussels and do his job? I think this attitude will reflect those of large swathes of this country. Scotland will rinse itself of Ruth Davidson's hard won 2017 gains, Wales might return a few Conservatives, the DUP will vote against the deal if they retain all of their seats and the Liberal Democrats might nibble away at a few of their southern seats as they don't have to endure the Corbyn stigma. Then again, they might eat a few of Labour's leads such that the Tory candidate wins there. Hard to say. He needs to tap into new votes and it's impossible to see how. Davidson was able to ruthlessly portray herself as a staunch Unionist but Johnson will not have that luxury.

I really do think it comes down to the Brexit Party. If they agree to give the Tories an easy route and they focus on Labour Leave seats then it's a Tory majority for sure. Of course, if the Lib Dems and Labour made a similar pact then that would turn things around.

However, I suspect that Farage will pretend not to support the Tories but will do it anyway and will focus on Lab leave seats, while Labour and the Lib Dems will split the Remain vote in every English constituency

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Look at it this way. Here are some slogans:

Tories: Back Boris' Deal and Get Brexit Done!
Lib Dems: Revoke!
The Brexit Party: A Clean Break!
Labour: Well, some of us want to have a second referendum but some more want a soft brexit negotiated. Some more want to Remain. But we're very clear, that we will renegotiate the deal and then maybe put it to a second referendum. But we could have a referendum first. Something, something, renegotiate, something referendum.

Lot of truth in that. Hardly says a lot for electorate that a few trite slogans are all it can digest but that seems to be how it is. I interpreted the ld move to revoke as a tactic to avoid difficult questions about holding a second vote and it works. That revoke position looks a bit off to me, in that it has little basis in reality,but it resonates with many voters so that's what counts.

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Look at it this way. Here are some slogans:

Tories: Back Boris' Deal and Get Brexit Done!
Lib Dems: Revoke!
The Brexit Party: A Clean Break!
Labour: Well, some of us want to have a second referendum but some more want a soft brexit negotiated. Some more want to Remain. But we're very clear, that we will renegotiate the deal and then maybe put it to a second referendum. But we could have a referendum first. Something, something, renegotiate, something referendum.

Yep and Corbyn's leadership or lack thereof is why it's such a mixed message from Labour.

Personally I think Johnson will win a majority with his "the backstop is gone and we will leave in February" line. He's an awful person but for some reason far more popular than May. People forgive him stuff other politicians would not be forgiven.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I really do think it comes down to the Brexit Party. If they agree to give the Tories an easy route and they focus on Labour Leave seats then it's a Tory majority for sure. Of course, if the Lib Dems and Labour made a similar pact then that would turn things around.

However, I suspect that Farage will pretend not to support the Tories but will do it anyway and will focus on Lab leave seats while Labour and the Lib Dems will split the Remain vote in every English constituency

They won't, though. Farage asked for the Moon when this was tried before. Johnson has leave credentials that May didn't. He was the most prominent Conservative Brexiter and can position himself as the only man who can deliver Brexit. Most of the rightwing press, if not all will swing in behind him.

quokula

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Look at it this way. Here are some slogans:

Tories: Back Boris' Deal and Get Brexit Done!
Lib Dems: Revoke!
The Brexit Party: A Clean Break!
Labour: Well, some of us want to have a second referendum but some more want a soft brexit negotiated. Some more want to Remain. But we're very clear, that we will renegotiate the deal and then maybe put it to a second referendum. But we could have a referendum first. Something, something, renegotiate, something referendum.

Anyone can make up inaccurate summaries like that.

Tories: Get Brexit Done, just like we've failed to for the last 3 years
Lib Dems: We'll do anything to stop Brexit, apart from working with other parties
Brexit Party: Vote for us if you hate foreigners
Labour: Let the people decide

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

Result: Basically the same situation as currently, Tories continue to pursue a hard brexit while the opposition majority fail to work together as the Lib Dems have repeatedly ruled out doing so, instead voting on endless delays until the EU stops granting them.

This has been explained to you countless times and yet you continue to peddle this line. The LibDems refused to support a minority Labour government in the case of a VoNC being passed because they felt (correctly imo) that it would stand no chance because rebel Tories wouldn't row in behind Corbyn. And because Corbyn wouldn't countenance any other option, they have hardened their stance towards him and identifying him as the problem. You may not agree with that, but in a new parliament with the potential to keep the Tories out and return a (at least softer leave if not outright) remain government, you seem to be suggesting that the LibDems would support the Tories?

There's not a chance of that. They got shafted by the Tories the last time. If they've forgotten that, there's the DUP to remind them.

The best case result from the election is roughly 240-270 Labour, 50 SNP and 30-50 LibDem plus independents/DUP and around 280-300 Tories. If the Tories get over 320 seats, it's going to be problematic.

Professor Moriarty

quokula wrote: »

Anyone can make up inaccurate summaries like that.

Tories: Get Brexit Done, just like we've failed to for the last 3 years
Lib Dems: We'll do anything to stop Brexit, apart from working with other parties
Brexit Party: Vote for us if you hate foreigners
Labour: Let the people decide

Get Brexit Done is an actual recent Tory Slogan. Revoke is an actual recent Lib Dem slogan. A Clean Break is an actual recent Brexit Party slogan. Can't remember any actual recent Labour slogan.

looksee

quokula wrote: »

Anyone can make up inaccurate summaries like that.

Tories: Get Brexit Done, just like we've failed to for the last 3 years
Lib Dems: We'll do anything to stop Brexit, apart from working with other parties
Brexit Party: Vote for us if you hate foreigners
Labour: Let the people decide

There was no claim that they were summaries. They are slogans, suggested slogans at that, suggestions of what the parties themselves might put forward as snappy versions of what they are offering.

quokula

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Lot of truth in that. Hardly says a lot for electorate that a few trite slogans are all it can digest but that seems to be how it is. I interpreted the ld move to revoke as a tactic to avoid difficult questions about holding a second vote and it works. That revoke position looks a bit off to me, in that it has little basis in reality,but it resonates with many voters so that's what counts.

The revoke position is utterly dishonest because there is no chance in hell that it would ever happen without raising massive questions about democracy that would have a lot of validity. It would be like mana from heaven for the far right at the next election and article 50 could be immediately invoked again by the next Tory government on the basis that the referendum mandate hasn't been fulfilled, nor has it been overturned by a people's vote.

Of course it allows them to attack Labour's more credible position and win votes from people who don't engage their brains or look beyond simple slogans.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They won't, though. Farage asked for the Moon when this was tried before. Johnson has leave credentials that May didn't. He was the most prominent Conservative Brexiter and can position himself as the only man who can deliver Brexit. Most of the rightwing press, if not all will swing in behind him.

Hopefully. The Brexit Party taking a few percent off the Tories in every constituency is the best hope for preventing a Tory majority.

quokula

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Get Brexit Done is an actual recent Tory Slogan. Revoke is an actual recent Lib Dem slogan. A Clean Break is an actual recent Brexit Party slogan. Can't remember any actual recent Labour slogan.

Let the People Decide is an actual Labour slogan.

For the Many not the Few is their main one though, as it covers more than Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

schmittel wrote: »

I suppose the point of my original post on the subject was that I think Lib Dems message should be "forget tactical voting, if all Remainers get behind us we will stop Brexit"

That might maximize LibDem seats, but not remain seats. If a constituency split 5:4:1 between Tories/Labour/LibDem in 2017, the best message for the LibDems there should be "Vote Labour", since that is the only way to beat the Tory.

Professor Moriarty

quokula wrote: »

Let the People Decide is an actual Labour slogan.

For the Many not the Few is their main one though, as it covers more than Brexit.

Let the People Decide....how? An immediate second referendum? What will be on that referendum? Will Labour renegotiate Johnson's deal? If so, under what criteria? If not, why not?

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A major factor in the 2017 election was that May literally did not turn up for debates and for campaigning. This left Corbyn with the field to himself. Johnson is a deeply flawed person and politician but he has charisma. He will turn up everywhere.

If I were the Tories, I would make this a presidential style dogfight between Johnson and Corbyn. The possible Achilles heel in that strategy is that, without doubt, there is plenty of muck yet to be made public about Johnson. If Labour can find it and make it stick then it could be a game changer.

Johnson was said to be a great orator who would run rings around Corbyn at PMQs and would easily be able to bat back criticisms against him, and yet he has been shown to sometimes be worse than May and his ramblings are just that, ramblings.

Look at the way people aren't afraid to stand up to him in the street and confront him, this doesn't happen to other leaders (other than the facist Farage) but Johnson seems to attract it.

Also, Corbyn also avoided the debates and if I remember correctly it was only once Rudd was confirmed to stand in for May that they took the opportunity to embarrass her further.

Joe_ Public

quokula wrote: »

The revoke position is utterly dishonest because there is no chance in hell that it would ever happen without raising massive questions about democracy that would have a lot of validity. It would be like mana from heaven for the far right at the next election and article 50 could be immediately invoked again by the next Tory government on the basis that the referendum mandate hasn't been fulfilled, nor has it been overturned by a people's vote.

Of course it allows them to attack Labour's more credible position and win votes from people who don't engage their brains or look beyond simple slogans.

Thing is, whether thats valid or not, i dont see much point in complaining about it. Its labour has the issue with the electorate on this, not the other parties so attacking them wont work i think. I understand the need not to cut off the northern constituencies with a hard pro remain stance, but finding that correct balance is problematic. I do have some sympathy for that but think they need to be a bit more clever about it.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hopefully. The Brexit Party taking a few percent off the Tories in every constituency is the best hope for preventing a Tory majority.

Agreed but we won't know until the results are in. Things are just moving too fast here.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Let the People Decide....how? An immediate second referendum? What will be on that referendum? Will Labour renegotiate Johnson's deal? If so, under what criteria? If not, why not?

The deal vs Remain.

Their policy is very simple, but you can make it complicated. Labour believes there is a better deal for the UK out there and would like to try and find out if there is. If they find one and it is beneficial they will back that new deal vs Remain.

If however the best deal is the Johnson deal then it will go against Remain. Either way the people will decide and have a choice between what has been negotiated and Remain. This is not complicated to understand, unless you are trying not to understand it.

hometruths

quokula wrote: »

The revoke position is utterly dishonest because there is no chance in hell that it would ever happen without raising massive questions about democracy that would have a lot of validity.

That's complete nonsense. The Lib Dems can revoke if their manifesto clearly says "We will revoke" and then they win a General Election on the strength of that manifesto.

I agree that outcome is unlikely, but if it did happen there could be no valid questions about democracy.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Johnson was said to be a great orator who would run rings around Corbyn at PMQs and would easily be able to bat back criticisms against him, and yet he has been shown to sometimes be worse than May and his ramblings are just that, ramblings.

Look at the way people aren't afraid to stand up to him in the street and confront him, this doesn't happen to other leaders (other than the facist Farage) but Johnson seems to attract it.

Also, Corbyn also avoided the debates and if I remember correctly it was only once Rudd was confirmed to stand in for May that they took the opportunity to embarrass her further.

Indeed, any person with half a brain would see beyond Johnson's facade but, sadly, there seems to be many people with only half a brain who vote.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour: Well, some of us want to have a second referendum but some more want a soft brexit negotiated. Some more want to Remain. But we're very clear, that we will renegotiate the deal and then maybe put it to a second referendum. But we could have a referendum first. Something, something, renegotiate, something referendum.

I don't think Labour will talk much about Brexit at all, they will talk about the NHS, jobs, education, fair taxes, the railways and so on, and compare it to Tory policies of austerity, defending the rich, attacking Parliament, lying to the Queen etc.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed, any person with half a brain would see beyond Johnson's facade but, sadly, there seems to be many people with only half a brain who vote.

But they can also see that we are now on extension number three after we were told only weeks ago that we were leaving "do or die". Johnson has a reputation for many things but competence is not one of them.

Joe_ Public

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think Labour will talk much about Brexit at all, they will talk about the NHS, jobs, education, fair taxes, the railways and so on, and compare it to Tory policies of austerity, defending the rich, attacking Parliament, lying to the Queen etc.

Will certainly be the strategy. One of the dominant themes in 2017 turned out to be social care, the so-called "dementia" tax, so no reason that cant happen again, at least to some extent.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

But they can also see that we are now on extension number three after we were told only weeks ago that we were leaving "do or die". Johnson has a reputation for many things but competence is not one of them.

Seven weeks is a long time for a message to be amplified. Heathrow 3rd runway, Garden Bridge, Affairs, Lied to the Queen, Rather die in a ditch than request an extension, Doesn't want an election.

Just a few more appearances like his at the Police academy where the recruit fainted and he babbled on and who knows how people will react at the poll booth.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

The deal vs Remain.

Their policy is very simple, but you can make it complicated. Labour believes there is a better deal for the UK out there and would like to try and find out if there is. If they find one and it is beneficial they will back that new deal vs Remain.

If however the best deal is the Johnson deal then it will go against Remain. Either way the people will decide and have a choice between what has been negotiated and Remain. This is not complicated to understand, unless you are trying not to understand it.

I understand it. But people like a slogan they understand. Labour's empty slogan, which could mean anything, belies the confusion and division throughout the party leadership. Other parties have definitive slogans and positions. Labour don't.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Other parties have definitive slogans and positions. Labour don't.

But "Get Brexit Done" is a shockingly bad slogan for the party who have been blathering about Brexit for years and getting nothing done.

quokula

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Let the People Decide....how? An immediate second referendum? What will be on that referendum? Will Labour renegotiate Johnson's deal? If so, under what criteria? If not, why not?

A referendum between remain and a Labour negotiated Brexit. A Labour negotiated Brexit includes dropping Theresa May's red lines and staying in the customs union. This is not a "unicorn" renegotiation in terms of asking the EU to compromise, it is instead changing the UK's position to one that is mutually beneficial to both them and us.

How soon can this be done? Pretty soon I'd imagine as the tricky stuff has already been negotiated and this is enhancing the deal for both sides, the withdrawal agreement only really needs to be changed to remove the Northern Ireland stuff as the whole UK is now covered (basically back to something similar to Theresa May's deal), with political declaration being modified for closer ties.

Remember that "get brexit done" only means the WA, regardless of who's in government there will be more years of negotiations on the finer details of the future relationship, but there can be a WA in place for a referendum pretty quickly.

I'm going to pre-empt criticism of this being too long for people to digest - this is the UK's relationship with Europe for years to come. It's deserving of a thoughtful and nuanced approach.

The slogan "Let the People Decide" is still a valid summary. The slogan "Get Brexit Done" can equally be turned into something very complicated if you start asking questions about the future relationship, what it means for various industries etc. The slogan "Revoke" is arguably a lot simpler, but also completely open to being dismantled without a democratic mandate of more than 17.4 million people, which no government will ever get.