Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

However I think most FTAs involve periodic reviews and updating. Having current alignment means that for the areas covered, initial standards don't need to be hammered out piece by piece.

Coming from different standards naturally leads to ideas of cooperation and opportunity. Diverging after decades of alignment naturally leads to conversations about which supply lines and industries will be decimated.

The negotiations will be a mess. The EU can gain nothing from them, only lose. The UK can gain some freedom so that deals with other entities may happen, but at what cost.

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The EU, China and Brazil have established a parallel WTO Court to bypass the American veto:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-sets-up-wto-court-with-group-of-countries-without-us/

Australia, NZ, Canada, Chile, South Korea, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland are among the other countries involved.

This is an obvious move. The US, especially under Trump, will use tariffs as a court/judgement if they feel they are being wronged. The problem with this is they are the judge in their own case and will never decide to tariff themselves even when they are the ones at fault. It makes sense for the other WTO nations to create a new mechanism and to deal with the US as it falls outside of the WTO.


As for the coming talks, here is an article highlighting some of the issues that will need to be sorted,

Brexit 2020: Everything you need to know about Boris Johnson's trade deal nightmare

Cool, so everything's sorted right? Brexit is getting done, everything's going back to normal and I never have to talk about trade again.

Oh yeah, no sorry. That's all a lie. We are about to enter the most perilous system-level recalibration of an advanced economy in trading history.

What is interesting is that there still isn't a policy from the UK. This is evident from the Javid quotes that both said they will leave any influence from the EU and at the same time have a close relationship. I think Johnson will go for a BRINO, just because he is lazy and this is the easiest path for him. All he needs to do then is sell his deal as the best thing ever and the sheep will follow him there. He did it with May's deal, he can do it with the trade deal. The question is how will the likes of Mark Francois react when he realises he has been burnt? It happened with the DUP and seeing as remainers aren't in cahoots with Johnson the people he will burn this time will be Brexiteers and the ERG.

listermint

One week left and nope. Still can't get my head around this economic and social suicide.


There's only one word that works.



Notions.

am i bovvered

That link sums it all up 🀯

Enzokk wrote: »

This is an obvious move. The US, especially under Trump, will use tariffs as a court/judgement if they feel they are being wronged. The problem with this is they are the judge in their own case and will never decide to tariff themselves even when they are the ones at fault. It makes sense for the other WTO nations to create a new mechanism and to deal with the US as it falls outside of the WTO.


As for the coming talks, here is an article highlighting some of the issues that will need to be sorted,

Brexit 2020: Everything you need to know about Boris Johnson's trade deal nightmare



What is interesting is that there still isn't a policy from the UK. This is evident from the Javid quotes that both said they will leave any influence from the EU and at the same time have a close relationship. I think Johnson will go for a BRINO, just because he is lazy and this is the easiest path for him. All he needs to do then is sell his deal as the best thing ever and the sheep will follow him there. He did it with May's deal, he can do it with the trade deal. The question is how will the likes of Mark Francois react when he realises he has been burnt? It happened with the DUP and seeing as remainers aren't in cahoots with Johnson the people he will burn this time will be Brexiteers and the ERG.

Ribs1234

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Did I read today that the uk is already diverging on the copy right laws coming soon? The point is not whether you think that the laws are good or bad, but that divergence is there before the ink is dry on the WA.

They are simply not going to apply the new regulations that should be implemented in all member states over the next couple of years. Probably the first of many "tweaks" in EU law that will be ignored.

Wanderer78

listermint wrote:

One week left and nope. Still can't get my head around this economic and social suicide.

Its very easy to understand why the uk has ended up in this situation

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

However I think most FTAs involve periodic reviews and updating. Having current alignment means that for the areas covered, initial standards don't need to be hammered out piece by piece.

So effectively and open ended transition period fully in the control of the UK and with no means of oversight by the EU.

I can see the benefit to the UK in that, it is pretty much the cake and eat it outcome, but what benefit to the EU.

Again, one must consider the costs that are borne by all companies, farmers etc, in ensuring not only that they comply with regulations but they are seen to comply.

UK want the accreditation without the cost, which would effectively allow them to undercut EU competition both within the EU and outside.

How is that in the EUs interest?

Nody

Bit cynical wrote: »

However I think most FTAs involve periodic reviews and updating. Having current alignment means that for the areas covered, initial standards don't need to be hammered out piece by piece.

But they do, EU will want a FTA that states these are the standards to be followed AND any future standards we implement will apply as well; break them and the deal is off. This is what UK will scoff at as rule taker and say no way we'll agree to that and we're back to a tariff free trade agreement only with all the implications that has.

Capt'n Midnight

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Did I read today that the uk is already diverging on the copy right laws coming soon? The point is not whether you think that the laws are good or bad, but that divergence is there before the ink is dry on the WA.

I was going to post the exact same thing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51240785

If the UK expects to roll over lots of things like data adequacy and passporting this is not the way to do it.

Capt'n Midnight

Footnote to history.

Labour Party sees surge in membership amid leadership race

sources within local parties are confident many if not most had joined to vote against the left-wing candidate, a reversal of what happened four years ago.

One MP, in a CLP that now numbers nearly 3,000 members, told Newsnight: "We're just trying to figure it out, but it seems that overwhelmingly the new joiners since the election are moderates who want to vote against Rebecca Long-Bailey in some form.

"A lot joined for Jess Phillips and are now deciding who next."

For me the big story is that it looks like someone isn't trying to buy that election by running an astroturf campaign. Which is just another way to say how irrelevant Labour are for now.

I could be wrong and there could be a Facebook disinformation campaign going on.

First Up

Nody wrote:

But they do, EU will want a FTA that states these are the standards to be followed AND any future standards we implement will apply as well; break them and the deal is off. This is what UK will scoff at as rule taker and say no way we'll agree to that and we're back to a tariff free trade agreement only with all the implications that has.

Tariffs and quotas are negotiable; standards are not.

Companies selling into the EU (from Eastern Europe for example) often complain about the EU's "non tariff barriers", meaning the product contents, certification, traceability, labelling etc. required to meet and pass EU standards. The EU patiently explains that they are open to providing full market access but unless and until they can meet these standards, their items will not be let in.

If the UK deviates from EU standards (for example as part of the terms enforced by the US), they will be excluding themselves from the EU market.

Not negotiable. Dreams of "mutual recognition" will remain dreams.

Capt'n Midnight

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

If anyone still thinks that the UK will be able to get an even sided (or even UK favouring) trade deal with the US, they might want to consider the following:

July, 2019 British Ambassador to the US resigns due to pressure from Trump

They might even want to consider the negotiations between the US and India.

Chicken and Big Pharma are front and centre.

India to import more food
India to increase imports of frozen poultry products
India to offer partial relief on medical device price caps that have hurt American pharma giants
India to offer a sweetener of $5-6 billion in additional trade for U.S. goods


And in return India will regain the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) trade deal that they already had before Trump vetoed it.

"I am altering the deal, pray I don't alter it any further."
- Trump , The Art of the Deal 1987

CelticRambler

Here's an interesting one: colleague in the UK has been waiting for her dream job to come up, and a vacancy has just arisen. It's in a civil service department profoundly affected by Brexit (lots of regulated import/export, mutual recognition, wholesale transfer of EU standards into UK law and no plans to diverge because the EU already sets the gold standard for the world ...) and the role to be filled is on the UK's "critical shortage" list. The curious thing about it is the salary: it was £47k pa when my colleague provided maternity cover a few years ago; now they're offering just £36k pa for the same hours, duties and responsibilities. You'd almost wonder were they using the "critical shortage" status to justify taking on an immigrant to save more than 20% on the wage bill ...

Strazdas

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Its very easy to understand why the uk has ended up in this situation

The way I would define it is every right wing authoritarian in British politics and the media using a sham of a referendum to launch a power grab (and succeeding).

johnnyskeleton

Bit cynical wrote: »

The UK, in their negotiations, will need to ensure that Chinese goods illegally imported into the EU are not subsequently re-exported to the UK.

I think what is needed is some kind of organisation to organise trade in Europe, with common standards and systems for ensuring that goods imported from outside of Europe are checked.

I would imagine that all the European countries would have to pay money into such an organisation, but the returns, in terms of increasing trade and reducing each country's requirement to carry out their own individual checks, would be phenomenal.

If only some sort of intra-governmental body existed to encourage co-operation in Europe, that would be amazing!

mayo.mick

Just seen this on twitter.

Leroy42

But people think that Johnson really doesn't understand what they have signed up to in the WA?

Or, IMO, that they fully understand, but think they will circumvent any obligations by way of the trade deal?

First Up

johnnyskeleton wrote:

If only some sort of intra-governmental body existed to encourage co-operation in Europe, that would be amazing!

Nah, never happen. Too many ultra nationalists, stuck in the 1940's with no grasp of the modern world and still dreaming of their colonial past.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

But people think that Johnson really doesn't understand what they have signed up to in the WA?

Or, IMO, that they fully understand, but think they will circumvent any obligations by way of the trade deal?

I don't think BORIS knows; he's a lazy cut throat politician and the rest of his cabinet has not shown any glimmer of understanding on how things work in the previous couple of years. I'm sure there are people below that do understand it but don't want to tell the bosses because ordered/goes against their boss belief and/or will be blamed on them and/or tried and failed because they their bosses believe they are smarter than a fox with a doctors degree from Foxingham university and have already outwitted EU. Those people I think are turning into heavy drinkers down at the pub trying to drink away their sorrows; but those people are not the once in charge at the top.

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

I don't think BORIS knows; he's a lazy cut throat politician and the rest of his cabinet has not shown any glimmer of understanding on how things work in the previous couple of years. I'm sure there are people below that do understand it but don't want to tell the bosses because ordered/goes against their boss belief and/or will be blamed on them and/or tried and failed because they their bosses believe they are smarter than a fox with a doctors degree from Foxingham university and have already outwitted EU. Those people I think are turning into heavy drinkers down at the pub trying to drink away their sorrows; but those people are not the once in charge at the top.

Certainly the recent statements from Javid would appear to back up the claim that at the very least they have no idea what they want, and more than likely they simply don't understand.

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

I don't think BORIS knows; he's a lazy cut throat politician and the rest of his cabinet has not shown any glimmer of understanding on how things work in the previous couple of years. I'm sure there are people below that do understand it but don't want to tell the bosses because ordered/goes against their boss belief and/or will be blamed on them and/or tried and failed because they their bosses believe they are smarter than a fox with a doctors degree from Foxingham university and have already outwitted EU. Those people I think are turning into heavy drinkers down at the pub trying to drink away their sorrows; but those people are not the once in charge at the top.

This seems the most likely explanation. A useless PM who has conned the electorate into thinking he is some sort of visionary and strong leader, surrounded by an even worse cabinet.

The reason for the confusing and contradictory statements from ministers is because they genuinely haven't a clue what they are doing.

serfboard

Strazdas wrote: »

The way I would define it is every right wing authoritarian in British politics and the media using a sham of a referendum to launch a power grab (and succeeding).

A Very British Coup.

Strazdas

serfboard wrote: »

A Very British Coup.

A fiendishly clever one : "If you oppose the referendum result, you are obviously anti-democratic" ........and they're actually getting away with this.

Bit cynical

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The EU can, at its own descretion, allow UK based services to continue to operate within the EU. As such the EU need not fear a sudden switch off as it is within its power to allow continued access to financial services, under its own terms. This will only happen where there is an advantage to the EU from allowing it, and can be revoked at any time which will create a damaging uncertantity on the UK side prompting businesses reliant on the EU market to consider relocating to the EU.

This, however, is only likely in the case of no deal. As you point out, like the UK, the EU is free to allow trading for particular sector on a discretionary basis. In the case of no deal, this is to be expected and indeed when negotiations on the WA were at a deadlock the EU announced a set of such measures. However these measures were anticipating a no deal outcome. What we're talking about here is where a deal has been completed and a particular sector excluded from that deal. Then the EU says that they will continue to import from that sector even though they refused to countenance it in negotiations. This would open them up to accusations of negotiating in bad faith.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

This, however, is only likely in the case of no deal. As you point out, like the UK, the EU is free to allow trading for particular sector on a discretionary basis. In the case of no deal, this is to be expected and indeed when negotiations on the WA were at a deadlock the EU announced a set of such measures. However these measures were anticipating a no deal outcome. What we're talking about here is where a deal has been completed and a particular sector excluded from that deal. Then the EU says that they will continue to import from that sector even though they refused to countenance it in negotiations. This would open them up to accusations of negotiating in bad faith.

Gosh. That would be terrible because, like, the UK has been so principled and consistent. Shame on the EU.

Imreoir2

Bit cynical wrote: »

What we're talking about here is where a deal has been completed and a particular sector excluded from that deal. Then the EU says that they will continue to import from that sector even though they refused to countenance it in negotiations. This would open them up to accusations of negotiating in bad faith.

I don't think the EU is particularly interested in or concerned by the petulant accusations of Brexiters, nor should they be.

Bit cynical

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think the EU is particularly interested in or concerned by the petulant accusations of Brexiters, nor should they be.

Might not just be the UK tabloids though.

listermint

Bit cynical wrote: »

Might not just be the UK tabloids though.

Who then ?

And why would it matter.

SantaCruz

Bit cynical wrote: »

This, however, is only likely in the case of no deal. As you point out, like the UK, the EU is free to allow trading for particular sector on a discretionary basis. In the case of no deal, this is to be expected and indeed when negotiations on the WA were at a deadlock the EU announced a set of such measures. However these measures were anticipating a no deal outcome. What we're talking about here is where a deal has been completed and a particular sector excluded from that deal. Then the EU says that they will continue to import from that sector even though they refused to countenance it in negotiations. This would open them up to accusations of negotiating in bad faith.

Such accusations are very effective in swaying China and the USA...

When you are negotiating with a giant, you take what you are offered.

B-Day planning continues with the release of the new commemorative coin.



https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51250753

About three million Brexit coins will enter circulation around the UK from Friday, with a further seven million to be added later in the year.

Mr Javid, who is Master of the Mint, was given the first batch of coins and will present one to Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week.

As part of the launch of the coin, the Royal Mint will open the doors of its south Wales HQ for 24 hours on 31 January (from 00:01 to 23.59) to let people strike their own commemorative Brexit coins.

Mr Javid said: "Leaving the European Union is a turning point in our history and this coin marks the beginning of this new chapter."

It will be interesting to see just how many people actually celebrate B-Day, or will it just be another day.